THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY: PROMOTION OF ENTRY INTO FORCE AND UNIVERSALISATION

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1 THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY: PROMOTION OF ENTRY INTO FORCE AND UNIVERSALISATION CTBT Introduction Course Lecture 7 19 October 2010 by Jean du Preez Chief: External Relations and International Cooperation Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation (PrepCom)

2 Entry Into Force Art XIV(1): This Treaty shall enter into force 180 days after the date of deposit of the instruments of ratification by all States listed in Annex 2 to this Treaty, but in no case earlier than two years after its opening for signature. Annex 2 lists 44 States States participating in negotiations listed by IAEA with research or nuclear power reactors Many States insisted that ratifications by the 5 NWS be required for EIF as well the 3 NPT outlier States End game time constraints resulted in Annex 2 States requirement 41 signed, 35 ratified China, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel & United States have not yet ratified DPRK, India & Pakistan have not yet signed

3 Universalisation Why is universalisation important? Solidifies the norm further enhances NPT and NWFZs Strengthens worldwide monitoring system Ensures political and technological buy-in Enhances democratic, multilateral verification and compliance Moral pressure on remaining Annex 2 states Approaching universalisation Signed by 182 States (out of 195) 153 States ratified so far Latest ratifications: Trinidad and Tobago & Central African Republic Can we get to 160?

4 Entry into Force Will the dominoes fall? The push and pull factor: The role of Indonesia Pull U.S. & China Push non-ratifying ASEAN and other states Leading role in the NAM (after U.S., China and Israel, all remaining non-ratifying states, incl Annex 2 are from the NAM) U.S ratification as a catalyst for entry into force China to follow, then India & Pakistan? Israeli ratification will likely be a game changer in the Middle East Egypt and Iran will have to consider role in region and globally, linked to progress on ME-NWFZ DPRK likely to be dealt with in context of resolving concerns over nuclear program

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7 Drastic Change in U.S. Position U.S. Senate voted in 1999 not to ratify (48-51) US maintained 1992 moratorium Strong US opposition at 2005 NPT RevCon 1999 arguments pertained to possibility of monitoring a zero-yield test ban & US ability to maintain its nuclear arsenal under SSP without testing 2002 NAS report IMS detection capabilities are considerably better than the one kiloton worldwide characterization that has often been stated US has technical capabilities to maintain confidence in the safety and reliability of its existing nuclear-weapon stockpile under the CTBT, if adequate resources are made available to the DOE nuclear-weapons complex Enormous progress since 1999 IMS almost complete incl 40 US stations System tried and tested 2 DPRK tests

8 U.S. President Obama Prague, April 2009 To achieve a global ban on nuclear testing, my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. - Prague, April Article XIV Conference Secr of State Clinton declared intention to seek ratification and secure ratifications from others so that the Treaty can enter into force 2010 Nuclear Posture Review The United States will not conduct nuclear testing and will pursue ratification and entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty 2010 NPT Review Conference Secretary Hillary Clinton reiterates U.S. commitment to ratify the CTBT 2011 Department of Energy Budget Stockpile activities directed towards work under a comprehensive test ban BUT, prospects for ratification dependent on domestic political developments

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11 Indonesia Announcement by Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa in House of Representatives (29 April 2010) We decided there was no point in delaying [ratification]. We do not want our policy to be steered by the US decisions. We can move it forward with a note that there must be a move to push the US to ratify NPT Review Conference It is our fervent hope that this further demonstration of our commitment to the nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation agenda will encourage other countries that have not ratified the Treaty, to do the same CTBTO Exhibition in NY: Putting an End to Nuclear Explosions (4 May 2010) In view of the present glimmer of hope in the nuclear disarmament agenda, the Government of Indonesia believes that it can now enhance its contribution by initiating its own ratification process

12 Significance of Indonesia s Ratification U.S. President Obama This is another signal that nations are joining a renewed effort to reinforce global non-proliferation, which advances the vision I outlined in Prague in 2009, and advances the security of the United States, Indonesia and the world Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon I want to salute your Government s announcement that Indonesia will ratify the CTBT Thank you for your leadership Executive Secretary Tibor Tóth This announcement is of crucial importance in moving the Treaty closer to entry into force, and underscores the leadership role of Indonesia in regional and global non-proliferation and disarmament efforts

13 The People s Republic of China Core interests preserved in the Treaty (Green light OSI, True Zero Yield Ban) 2009 Article XIV Conference Pledged to work with the international community to facilitate the early entry into force of the Treaty Ambassador Li Baodong UNSC Resolution 1887 Called on all States to refrain from conducting a nuclear test explosion and to sign and ratify the CTBT, thereby bringing the treaty into force at an early date 2010 NPT Review Conference Support for promotion of CTBT ratification and entry into force in concluding statement

14 DPRK: Unpredictable Actor? Left NPT and kicked out IAEA Tested two nuclear devices Cheonan incident and subsequent hostilities Impact of leadership changes Concerns over new tests Stalled Six-Party Talks

15 SEAPFE Universalisation ASEAN (Also covered by SEANWFZ) Thailand (s) Announced intention to ratify at 2010 NPT RevCon Reiterated this commitment at UNGA 65th Brunei Darussalam (s) Myanmar (s) Pacific Islands (All states covered by SPNWFZ) Papua New Guinea (s) Announced intention to ratify at 2010 NPT RevCon, Cabinet is currently considering the Treaty Niue Solomon Islands (s) Tonga Tuvalu

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17 Middle East Israel Conditions for ratification Readiness of the CTBT verification regime Equal status in the policy making bodies of the CTBTO Compliance with the Treaty from States in the Middle East 2009 Article XIV Conference I would like to reiterate my Government s unequivocal support for the CTBT. Ambassador David Danieli Iran Opportunity to clarify the nature of its nuclear program Difficult to remain advocate of global nuclear disarmament if outside Treaty if Israel and Egypt ratify Stated position: Concerns that final text only prohibited nuclear test explosion and exempted all other kinds of nuclear tests STILL, even with its limited scope, CTBT was measured a major achievement in the field of nuclear disarmament and the 2000 NPT Review Conference reaffirmed this role Ambassador Ali-Asghar Soltanieh (2007 Article XIV Conference)

18 South Asia India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, December 2009 "Should the US and China ratify the CTBT, a new situation will emerge." Impact of additional testing on NSG waiver and continuing supplies of nuclear material and technology Prime Minister Singh meets with Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama Will not stand in the way of entry into force Pakistan Stance on the CTBT is dependent on India President Asif Ali Zardari How long will Pakistan be able to remain outside the Treaty if India joins? Will Pakistan s position be linked to a package deal such as NSG waiver?

19 MESA Universalisation Middle East: Iraq (s) Announced intention to ratify at 2010 NPT RevCon Saudi Arabia Syria Yemen (s) South Asia: Bhutan Nepal (s) Sri Lanka (s)

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21 AFRICA Egypt Stated on several occasions that ratification is linked to Isreal s adherence to the NPT Supports principles and objectives of the CTBT but do not regard the treaty as a secluded legal instrument apart from national objectives to achieve nuclear disarmament and the universality of non-proliferation Linked ratification to progress on 1995 NPT Resolution on the Middle East Resolution The 2010 NPT Review Conference will be of paramount importance to move our agenda together, to implement the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East, which will open the doors for a new horizon to the CTBT - Ambassador Maged Abdelaziz, 2009 Article XIV Conference Will the 2012 Conference on establishing a ME-NWFZ in the ME Middle East open the door? CTBT ratification and entry into force will provide important CBM towards a ME NWFZ

22 AFRICA Universalisation (All states covered by ANWFZ) Angola (s) Plans to submit to Parliament with other treaties Chad (s) Comoros (s) Congo (s) Plans to submit to Parliament this year Guinea (s) Guinea Bissau (s) The Gambia (s) Ghana (s) Parliament ratified in March 2010 Mauritius Sao Tome and Principe (s) Somalia Swaziland (s) Zimbabwe (s) Parliament already ratified

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24 Latin America and the Caribbean Universalisation (All states covered by Tlatelolco Treaty) Cuba Dominica Guatemala (s) Announced intention to ratify at 2010 NPT RevCon

25 Article XIV Conference Art XIV: 2. If this Treaty has not entered into force three years after the date of the anniversary of its opening for signature, the Depositary shall convene a Conference of the States that have already deposited their instruments of ratification on the request of a majority of those States. That Conference shall examine the extent to which the requirement set out in paragraph 1 has been met and shall consider and decide by consensus what measures consistent with international law may be undertaken to accelerate the ratification process in order to facilitate the early entry into force of this Treaty. 3. Unless otherwise decided by the Conference referred to in paragraph 2 or other such conferences, this process shall be repeated at subsequent anniversaries of the opening for signature of this Treaty, until its entry into force.

26 2009 Article XIV Conference Six Art XIV Conferences held since Article XIV Conference (24/9/2009) Chaired by France and Morocco 40 Foreign Ministers among 106 delegations Ratifying and signatory states adopted robust action plan to promote entry into force and universality Held on the same day as historical UNSC summit Co-coordinators subsequently initiated an action plan for promoting the CTBT at regional and global levels

27 2009 UNSC Summit Historic summit on non-proliferation and disarmament chaired by US President Obama Held on same day as CTBT Art XIV Conference Adopted Res 1887: called upon all States to refrain from conducting a nuclear test explosion and to sign and ratify the CTBT), thereby bringing the treaty into force at an early date

28 CTBT Ministerial Meeting, 23 October 2010 Convened by Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Japan, Morocco, and the Netherlands Over 70 countries participated, 24 represented at the ministerial level Ministerial Statement endorsed by over 60 countries We commit ourselves individually and together to make the Treaty a focus of attention at the highest political level and to take measures to facilitate the signature and ratification Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon: We can no longer wait for the perfect international environment before taking advantage of existing and potentially shortlived opportunities

29 Thank You!