MALAYSIA GENERAL ELECTIONS XIV OUTLOOK PROSPECTS AND OUTCOME III 08 MAY 2018

Transcription

1 MALAYSIA GENERAL ELECTIONS XIV OUTLOOK PROSPECTS AND OUTCOME III 08 MAY 2018

2 Presentation Overview GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey Data Sources and Methodology National Direction Update Voting Motivation Drivers Projected Outcomes

3 GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey Data Sources National-level voter surveys (1200 respondents each) conducted: January February March, 9-16 April 2018 Covering Peninsular Malaysia GE 14 National Daily Tracking Survey 28 April 08 May 2018; n = 3,007 GE 14 Selangor Daily Tracking Survey 25 April 07 May 2018; n = 3,458 Various constituency-based survey during campaign period Reference state-level surveys: Kedah (n=1200, 24th 26th April 2018) Wilayah K. Lumpur (n=600, 18th 21st April 2018) Johor (n=1250, 14th 20th April 2018) Negeri Sembilan (n-479, 19th 23rd April 2018) Melaka (n=240, 19th 23rd April 2018) Pahang (n=460, 17th 18th April 2018) Please note that results for Sabah and Sarawak were developed based on a combination of field observation teams along with simulation from surveys conducted in March 2018.

4 Standard Survey Methodology & Respondent Profiles 4 o 1579 voters aged 21 and above were interviewed via telephone (fixed and mobile lines) o o o o o o The survey respondents are from all states across Peninsular Malaysia. 70 most marginal seats only. Voters were selected through random stratified sampling method along the lines of ethnicity, gender, age and parliament constituencies. All of the constituencies (12 states and across 70 parliament constituencies) were surveyed and the selection of the respondents is proportional with respect to the population in each parliament constituency. Respondents were interviewed in their own language of preferences Survey margin of error estimated at ±2.46% o The survey was conducted on 28 th April 8thMay Ethnicity 68% MALAY Gender 5 MALE 24% CIHINESE Age Group 12% 8% INDIAN 5 FEMALE 22% 25% Occupation/ Sector 42% Private 21% 16% 9% 8% Monthly Household Income (RM) 9% Self employed/ business Homemaker Government/ GLC Retired 4% Student/ Unemployed/ Others 75% 18% INTERNET ACCESS 29% 35%

5 National Direction

6 Direction of the Country GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey Ethnicity Gender / Internet Access Age Group 6% 9% Right Wrong Right Wrong Right Wrong % 0 Malay Chinese Indian 0 Male Female Internet No internet % 80 Right Occupation Wrong 80 Household income (RM) Right Wrong 80 Right Setting/ BR1M Wrong Strongly to the right direction Somewhat to the right direction Unsure Strongly to the wrong direction Somewhat to the wrong direction Refuse Govt/ GLC Private Business/ Self-emp *Others ,000 2,000-3, ,000-6, , Urban Rural No Yes * Homemaker, Retired, Students, Unemployed Q: Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten on the wrong direction? 6

7 Perspective towards Issues GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey 5 45% 43% 4 35% 25% 21% 15% 5% 8% 8% 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% Economic concern (inflation, jobs, income, etc) Corruption Preservation of Malay rights/ Fair treatment of all races Leadership and governance Political instability Infrastructure and public transportation Housing Race relations Implementation of Hudud law Q: From the following, please choose ONE of the current issues that are most important to you at present? 7

8 Perspective towards Issues GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey Current Issues Total Malay Chinese Indian Male Female Internet Economic concern (inflation, job oppurtunities, lower income, etc) No Internet BN Opposition Undecided Undisclosed 43% 46% 37% 43% 37% 5 44% 43% 43% 46% 44% 38% 5 44% Corruption 21% 17% 35% 13% 25% 17% 19% 22% 23% 16% 19% 26% 12% 21% Weakness of the leadership 8% 3% 7% 6% 12% 4% 2% 1% 17% 8% 8% Preservation of Malay rights[malay Respondent]/Fair treatment of all races [Non- Malay Respondent] 8% 7% 9% 15% 8% 8% 5% 6% 13% 2% 13% 7% Housing 5% 6% 1% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 9% 4% 5% Political instability 4% 5% 2% 5% 4% 4% 6% 3% 5% 3% 5% 6% 1% 5% Worsing race relations 3% 3% 1% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 2% Implementation of Hudud law 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 5% 2% 1% Infrastructure and public 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% transportation Q: From the following, please choose ONE of the current issues that are most important to you at present? Note: This question up until 3/5/2018 8

9 Factors influencing Voting Choice GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey OVERALL 35% 33% Before nomination After nomination 29% 25% 18% 23% 22% 24% 15% 9% 5% 4% Having a clean government Defend the position of Malays and Islam Improving the people's economic condition Having credible leadership Providing better public services such as health, education and safety 9 Q: As you know, the elections are important in determine future and the direction of the state. Based on the following, please choose TWO main points that will affect your decision to vote a contesting party or candidate in the May 9, 2018 general election?

10 Factors influencing Voting Choice GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey MALAY 45% 4 38% Note: despite some decline, Malay voters still rate Malay rights issues as most important factor. Before nomination After nomination 35% 32% 25% 15% 5% 15% 18% 23% 21% 2% 6% Having a clean government Defend the position of Malays and Islam Improving the people's economic condition Having credible leadership Providing better public services such as health, education and safety 10 Q: As you know, the elections are important in determine future and the direction of the state. Based on the following, please choose TWO main points that will affect your decision to vote a contesting party or candidate in the May 9, 2018 general election?

11 Factors influencing Voting Choice GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey NON-MALAY 4 Before nomination After nomination 35% 34% 25% 26% 29% 26% 16% 17% 15% 13% 8% 11% 7% 5% Having a clean government Defend the position of Malays and Islam Improving the people's economic condition Having credible leadership Providing better public services such as health, education and safety 11 Q: As you know, the elections are important in determine future and the direction of the state. Based on the following, please choose TWO main points that will affect your decision to vote a contesting party or candidate in the May 9, 2018 general election?

12 Voters Political Choice

13 Trust to Lead: BN vs PAS vs PH Overall 6 BN should continue to run federal government Pakatan Harapan should be given the chance to run federal government PAS should be given the chance to run federal government Unsure 5 Refuse 4 32% 34% 14% 16% 5% GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey Notes While an indicative question, this item provides a general view of the respondent towards possible choices. It serves as a check on voting outcome survey questions. Here we found that Malay voters disinclined to vote BN were likely split between PH and PAS, which was again reflected in the party choice questions in the survey. Q: Do you think that BN should continue to run federal government or do you feel it is time to let Opposition parties like Pakatan Harapan or PAS to be given the chance to govern? 13

14 Trust to Lead: BN vs PAS vs PH By Ethnicity 10 MALAY CHINESE INDIAN GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey % % 4 39% % 17% 4% 14% 7% 2% 12% 3% BN should continue run federal govt Unsure PAS should be given chance to run federal govt Refuse PH should be given chance to run federal govt Q: Do you think that BN should continue to run federal government or do you feel it is time to let Opposition parties like Pakatan Harapan or PAS to be given the chance to govern? 14

15 GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey BN vs PAS vs PH as at 08 May 2018 Overall Before Modeling After Modeling % 39.9% 9.6% 2 May % 15.2% 43.3% 6.8% May 28.2% % 37.3% % 43.4% 9. Notes PH appears to have garnered a higher proportion of the popular vote share. However in the wake of the campaign, PAS appears to have benefited from the movement of voters away from BN. BN PH PAS Unsure 16.9% 19.3% Not Preferring any Refuse 15 Q: Between BN, PAS and Pakatan Harapan which party do you prefer to represent you?

16 GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey BN vs PAS vs PH as at 08 May 2018 Malay Before Modeling % 14.2% 2 May 19.6% 3.4% 16.2% 5.8% % 8 May 18.3% 16.7% 4.6% 16.4% 9.3% Notes Note that pre-and post modeling outcomes found a reduction in Malay voter support for BN, however the swing appears to have benefitted PAS more than PH. After Modeling BN PH PAS Unsure % 24.7% 28.1% % 28.1% 27.6% With this outcome, it is likely that BN will prevail in the numerous marginal seats that determine the end result of the election. Not Preferring any Refuse 16 Q: Between BN, PAS and Pakatan Harapan which party do you prefer to represent you?

17 GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey BN vs PAS vs PH as at 08 May 2018 Chinese 10 Notes % Chinese voter support for both BN and PH did not appear to significantly change over the campaign period % 4 8.5% % Continued strong preference for PH projected % BN PAS 0. PH Unsure Not preferring any Refuse Before Modelling BN PAS PH After Modelling Q: Between BN, PAS and Pakatan Harapan which party do you prefer to represent you? 17

18 GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey BN vs PAS vs PH as at 08 May 2018 Indian 6 Notes % % 33.7% Indian voter sentiments appear to have swung slightly in favour of PH during the course of the campaign % 15.3% 8.8% 9.4% % BN PAS PH Unsure Not preferring any Refuse Before Modelling BN PAS PH After Modelling Q: Between BN, PAS and Pakatan Harapan which party do you prefer to represent you? 18

19 Final Outcome Projections As at 1200hrs, May 8 th 2018

20 GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey Estimated Support for Political Parties (Peninsular Malaysia) as at 8 May 2018 (1 st May 2018) BN Malay Chinese Indian Other 44.3% (51.2%) 15.8% (14.7%) 41.3% (49.) 9 Est Popular Vote 08 May 2018 (1 May 2018) 37.3% (40.3%) PH 27.6% (27.8%) 84.2% (85.3%) 56.5% (50.8%) 5% 43.4% (43.7%) PAS 28.1% (20.9%) 0. (<1.) 2.3% (<1.) 5% 19.3% (16.) 20

21 Estimated Seat Tally by Party and State GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey as at 8 May 2018 Given the above findings, its retention of a plurality of support among Malay voters, alongside PAS ability to retain at least onequarter of the Malay vote share, we anticipate that BN will prevail in the election. 21

22 List of Marginal Parliamentary Seats by State as at 8 May 2018 KEDAH JERLUN POKOK SENA JERAI KULIM BDR BAHARU KELANTAN KOTA BHARU TERENGGANU MARANG PERAK BAGAN SERAI SUNGAI SIPUT GE 14: West Malaysia Pre-Election Voter Survey PAHANG CAMERON HLDS. TEMERLOH BENTONG BERA SELANGOR KUALA LUMPUR NEGERI SEMBILAN JOHOR SABAK BERNAM HULU SELANGOR TANJONG KARANG SETIAWANGSA TITIWANGSA LEMBAH PANTAI JELEBU JEMPOL AYER HITAM JOHOR BAHRU PULAI SPG RENGGAM TANJONG PIAI 22 SABAH KOTA MARUDU SEPANGGAR KENINGAU LIBARAN SILAM TAWAU SARAWAK STAMPIN SARATOK SARIKEI SIBU MIRI BARAM The above are seats deemed too close to call with margins under 3% of the expected popular votes. Seats from Sabah are estimates derived from field observation teams augmenting a pre-election state and constituency surveys conducted in March Seats from Sarawak are based on observer reports and simulations from historical voting outcomes

23 Malaysia General Elections XIV Outlook Prospects and Outcome III THANK YOU