Ontario Election 2018 Final Week Tracking, June 3-5: Final Poll Before Election Day Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief

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1 Ontario Election 2018 Final Week Tracking, June 3-5: Final Poll Before Election Day Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief June 2018

2 Methodology 1 of 2 This Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief features the final survey results of Pollara Strategic Insights final week tracking survey for the Ontario Election, which involves daily polling updates based on a rolling sample of mixed-mode survey interviewing. Previous waves were based on a roll-up sample of the most recent 4 days of surveys. To provide the most current and sensitive sounding in our final poll, we have based this final wave of results upon our most recent 3 days of polling. This is our final update, based upon a mixed-mode sample of N=906 adult Ontarians who selfidentified as eligible to vote in the Ontario Election. The survey was conducted from June 3 to 5, Of the 906 surveys conducted: 283 were conducted via a live-interviewer CATI telephone survey approach, with 26% of the interviews being conducted via cellphone. 623 were conducted via an online survey approach, among verified members of a research panel. Because the sample for this survey included both probability (telephone) and non-probability (online) samples, a margin of error cannot be applied to it. The online sample is not probability-based because respondents self-selected for participation in a verified research panel. Sample surveys and polls of all types may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. If the entire N=906 sample were conducted among a probability sample, it would carry a margin of error of ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20. As it is probability sample, the telephone portion of the sample (n=283) carries a margin of error of ± 5.8%, 19 times out of 20. 2

3 Methodology 2 of 2 The data are statistically weighted to ensure the regional composition province-wide and within region to ensure age and gender composition reflects that of the Ontario adult eligible population using information from the 2016 Census and accounting for older Ontarians increased propensity to vote based on an analysis of Ontario s election performance relative to federal elections. Based upon our analysis, the composition of the electorate over the age of 55 would range between 43 and 48 percent. In this report, results are expressed as percentages unless otherwise noted. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding or multiple responses. Net results cited in the text may not exactly match individual results shown in the charts due to rounding. Previous to this final week tracking survey, Pollara Strategic Insights conducted 3 online surveys of adult Ontarians who self-identified as eligible to vote in the Ontario Election. The surveys were conducted during each of the following 3 time periods: May 3 to 4 (N=1,011 interviews), May 21 to 22 (N=870), and May 27 to 28 (N=800). Because the samples for each of these surveys was based on respondents who initially self-selected for participation in a verified research panel rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. Sample surveys and polls of all types may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. If these 3 surveys were based upon probability samples, they would carry margins of error of ± 3.1, ±3.3%, and 3.5%, 19 times out of 20, respectively. The data for these 3 online surveys was statistically weighted to ensure the regional composition provincewide and within region to ensure age and gender composition reflects that of the Ontario adult eligible population using information from the 2016 Census and accounting for older Ontarians increased propensity to vote based on an analysis of Ontario s election performance relative to federal elections. Based upon our analysis, the composition of the electorate over the age of 55 would range between 43 and 48 percent. 3

4 Credentials & Copyright Pollara Strategic Insights is a longstanding Gold Seal-certified member of the Marketing Research & Intelligence Association (MRIA) and adheres to their Code of Conduct for Market and Social Research, including the Common Standards of Disclosure. 2018, Pollara Strategic Insights This release of survey results and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Pollara Strategic Insights. They are not designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use these survey results or data for such purpose is either granted or implied by their publication. Pollara does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy or result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Pollara s written permission will be considered defamation of Pollara and its brand as well as a violation of Pollara s intellectual property, and Pollara reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. 4

5 The Horse Race

6 With one day to go before Election Day the PCs and NDP are neck-and-neck among decided voters PC 38 NDP 38 Lib 17 Green 6 (IF NOT VOTED YET:) Q14. Thinking about the upcoming provincial election next week, for which party do you plan on voting for? (IF ALREADY VOTED:) Q15. What party did you vote for in the provincial election? (IF UNDECIDED IN Q14:) Q16. Well, if the election were held today and you had to decide, for which party would you vote for? NOTE: Graph does not display 2% indicating vote intent for another party. BASE: Decided Voters, Leaners Included (Undecideds & Non-Voters Excluded). Unweighted N=766. June

7 Initial Vote Tracking, ending June 3-5: PCs & NDP tied at 32%, Liberals continue decline PC NDP Lib Green Undecided With undecideds down to 11%, the PCs have reached their high point of the campaign. The PCs won on both the phones and the web last night only. The NDP are approaching their Pre-Debate high point May 22-May 28-May 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun (IF NOT VOTED YET:) Q14. Thinking about the upcoming provincial election next week, for which party do you plan on voting for? (IF ALREADY VOTED:) Q15. What party did you vote for in the provincial election? (IF UNDECIDED IN Q14:) Q16. Well, if the election were held today and you had to decide, for which party would you vote for? NOTE: Graph does not display 2% indicating vote intent for another party, or 4% not voting. BASE: Total Sample, June 3-5. Vote Intent = Decided+Leaners. 7

8 Decided Vote Tracking, ending June 3-5: Dead heat continues PC NDP Lib Green May 22-May 28-May 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun (IF NOT VOTED YET:) Q14. Thinking about the upcoming provincial election next week, for which party do you plan on voting for? (IF ALREADY VOTED:) Q15. What party did you vote for in the provincial election? (IF UNDECIDED IN Q14:) Q16. Well, if the election were held today and you had to decide, for which party would you vote for? NOTE: Graph does not display 2% indicating vote intent for another party. BASE: Decided Voters, Leaners Included (Undecideds & Non-Voters Excluded). Unweighted N=766. June

9 Data

10 June 3-5, 2018 Ontario Pollara Vote Q14/15/16 Summary Vote... Summary REGION GENDER AGE Ont Ont Ont Toron Metro South South Cent Ont Ont Total to Belt West Cntrl ral North East Men Women Total Answering (906) (181) (245) (109) (136) (82) (45) (109) (435) (471) (199) (281) (426) Total Answering UNWT (906) (167) (250) (123) (125) (87) (39) (115) (416) (490) (172) (311) (423) DECIDED Liberal-Wynne PC-Ford NDP-Horwath Green-Schreiner Another party TOTAL Liberal-Wynne PC-Ford NDP-Horwath Green-Schreiner Another party Not voting Undecided Liberal-Wynne PC-Hudak NDP-Horwath Green-Schreiner Some other party Did not vote Not sure Prefer not to say Page 1

11 Pollara Ontario June 3-5, 2018 Q8 Q9 How likely to vote... REGION GENDER AGE Ont Ont Ont Toron Metro South South Cent Ont Ont Total to Belt West Cntrl ral North East Men Women Total Answering (906) (181) (245) (109) (136) (82) (45) (109) (435) (471) (199) (281) (426) Definitely will vote Probably will vote Probably not Definitely not Not sure Already voted Total Will Vote Def/Prob/ Total Will Not Vote Will Vote - Not Q10 Q9 Enthusiasm to to vote... & Q11-13 Impression ratings not asked in final wave of tracking survey. Total Answering (623) (114) (168) (74) (89) (60) (40) (79) (309) (314) (155) (195) (273) (DK/Ref) Mean Page 2

12 Appendix: Regions Defined by Ridings

13 Appendix: Regions by Ridings 1 of 3 Toronto 905 Metro Belt Beaches-East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke North Etobicoke-Lakeshore Humber River-Black Creek Scarborough Southwest Scarborough-Agincourt Scarborough-Guildwood Scarborough-Rouge Park Spadina-Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto-Danforth Toronto-St. Paul's University-Rosedale Willowdale Ajax Markham-Stouffville Newmarket-Aurora Aurora-Oak Ridges- Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Markham-Thornhill Markham-Unionville Oakville Oakville- North Burlington Brampton East Milton Oshawa Brampton North Mississauga Centre Pickering-Uxbridge Brampton South Mississauga East- Cooksville Richmond Hill Brampton West Mississauga-Erin Mills Thornhill Dufferin-Caledon Mississauga-Lakeshore Vaughan-Woodbridge Durham Mississauga-Malton Wellington-Halton Hills Parkdale-High Park Scarborough Centre York Centre York South-Weston King-Vaughan Mississauga- Streetsville Whitby Scarborough North 11

14 Appendix: Regions 2 of 3 Southwest Brantford-Brant Cambridge Chatham-Kent-Leamington Elgin-Middlesex-London Essex Huron-Bruce Lambton-Kent-Middlesex London North Centre London West London-Fanshawe Oxford Perth-Wellington Sarnia-Lambton Windsor West Windsor-Tecumseh South Central Burlington Kitchener Centre Flamborough-Glanbrook Kitchener South-Hespeler Guelph Kitchener-Conestoga Haldimand-Norfolk Niagara Centre Hamilton Centre Niagara Falls Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Niagara West Hamilton Mountain St. Catharines Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas Waterloo 12

15 Appendix: Regions 3 of 3 East Carleton Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Hastings-Lennox and Addington Kanata-Carleton Kingston and the Islands Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Nepean Orléans Ottawa Centre Ottawa South Ottawa West-Nepean Ottawa-Vanier Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry Central Barrie-Innisfil Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Northumberland-Peterborough South Parry Sound-Muskoka Peterborough-Kawartha Simcoe North Simcoe-Grey York-Simcoe North Algoma-Manitoulin Kenora-Rainy River Kiiwetinoong Mushkegowuk-James Bay Nickel Belt Nipissing Sault Ste. Marie Sudbury Thunder Bay-Atikokan Thunder Bay-Superior North Timmins Timiskaming-Cochrane 13

16 For more information: Craig Worden, President

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