Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Voters

Transcription

1 Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Voters Field Dates: October 17 - October 21, 2016 Sample: 772 Likely Voters in New Hampshire Margin of Error: 4.5% YouGov interviewed 848 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 772 likely voters to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology, and political interest. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2010 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey. The matched cases were weighted to New Hampshire registered voters in the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, ideology, and party registration. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. All figures presented in this document are for likely voters unless otherwise noted. UMass Poll Directors/Fellows Brian F. Schaffner, Ph.D. Director schaffne@polsci.umass.edu Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. Associate Director laraja@polsci.umass.edu Tatishe Nteta, Ph.D. Associate Director nteta@polsci.umass.edu Mia Costa Research Fellow micosta@polsci.umass.edu Kaylee Johnson Research Fellow ktjohnson@polsci.umass.edu poll@polsci.umass.edu - 1

2 If the presidential election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Clinton Trump Johnson 6 8 Stein 3 3 Other 4 5 Not sure 10 4 Among Trump Supporters: Would you say that your support for Trump is...? Enthusiastic 53 Not very enthusiastic 39 Not at all enthusiastic 8 Among Clinton Supporters Would you say that your support for Clinton is...? Enthusiastic 56 Not very enthusiastic 36 Not at all enthusiastic 8 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 2

3 If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Ayotte Hassan Chabot 3 3 Other 1 1 Not sure 8 4 If the election for governor were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Van Ostern Sununu Abramson 4 5 Other 1 1 Not sure 14 7 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 3

4 If the election for House of Representatives were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? N = 380 likely voters living in the 1st Congressional District for this question. W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Shea-Porter Guinta Lombardo 8 9 Other 2 3 Not sure If the election for House of Representatives were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered not sure then follow up question was Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for? N = 382 likely voters living in the 2nd Congressional District for this question. W/o Leaners W/ Leaners Kuster Lawrence Other 1 1 Not sure 9 4 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 4

5 Did you watch any of the presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? Yes, watched at least one debate 79 No, did not watch any of the debates 21 Which candidate do you think performed better overall in the debates? Asked only of those who said they saw at least one debate. Hillary Clinton 52 Donald Trump 23 Neither 23 Both 2 Not sure 1 So far, which candidate do you think has run the more negative Presidential campaign? Clinton 37 Trump 48 Not sure 15 So far, which candidate do you think has run the more negative Senate campaign? Hassan 46 Ayotte 31 Not sure 23 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 5

6 As you may know, Republican Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte stated earlier this year that she would vote for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, but more recently she said she would not vote for him. Does Ayotte s recent decision to not vote for Trump make you...? Much more likely to vote for Ayotte 6 Somewhat more likely to vote for Ayotte 9 Somewhat less likely to vote for Ayotte 8 Much less likely to vote for Ayotte 11 Makes no difference 64 Not sure 3 Recently, a tape was released from 2005 which showed Donald Trump making derogatory comments about women. Does hearing about this tape make you...? Much more likely to vote for Trump 4 Somewhat more likely to vote for Trump 2 Somewhat less likely to vote for Trump 6 Much less likely to vote for Trump 33 Makes no difference 53 Not sure 2 In recent days, a number of women have accused Donald Trump of groping or kissing them without their consent. Does hearing about these allegations make you...? Much more likely to vote for Trump 5 Somewhat more likely to vote for Trump 2 Somewhat less likely to vote for Trump 6 Much less likely to vote for Trump 32 Makes no difference 53 Not sure 3 Recently, the website Wikileaks released excerpts of paid speeches Hillary Clinton made to a number of Wall Street firms. Does hearing about details from these speeches make you...? Much more likely to vote for Clinton 1 Somewhat more likely to vote for Clinton 3 Somewhat less likely to vote for Clinton 10 Much less likely to vote for Clinton 31 Makes no difference 49 Not sure 6 poll@polsci.umass.edu - 6

7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve approve disapprove disapprove Not sure President Barack Obama Governor Maggie Hassan Senator Kelly Ayotte Senator Jeanne Shaheen What is your opinion of the following individuals? Very Somewhat Somewhat Very favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable Not sure Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Barack Obama Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte Jeanne Shaheen How well do you think each of the following would do in representing the interests of women? Very Somewhat Not well well well at all Not sure Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Kelly Ayotte Maggie Hassan The Democratic Party The Republican Party poll@polsci.umass.edu - 7

8 What one word would you use to describe the following individuals? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump - 8

9 What one word would you use to describe the following individuals? Kelly Ayotte Maggie Hassan - 9

10 In thinking about the election for U.S. Senate between Kelly Ayotte and Maggie Hassan, what issue is most important to your vote? Economy/jobs 15 Healthcare 11 Senate Control/Supreme Court 9 Social issues 9 Taxes 8 Homeland security/terrorism 8 Federal deficit/gov t spending 7 Guns 5 Gov t ethics 4 Immigration 3 Education 3 Environment/climate change 2 Other 16 poll@polsci.umass.edu

11 Sample Demographics Gender Male 48% Female 52% Age % % % Education HS or less 29% Some college 21% College degree 34% Postgraduate 16% Party Registration Democrat 31% Republican 32% Unaffiliated 37% Ideology Liberal 22% Moderate 36% Conservative 39% Income < $40k 31% $40 - $100k 49% > $100k 20% poll@polsci.umass.edu