Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise

Transcription

1 July Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2014 and 2015 By Susan Dudley & Melinda Warren thirty-six Regulators Budget

2 Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2014 and 2015 By Susan Dudley & Melinda Warren 2015 Annual Report July 9, 2014 Regulators Budget Report 36 Weidenbaum Center Washington University St. Louis, MO Regulatory Studies Center The George Washington University Washington, DC

3 Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2014 and 2015 By Susan Dudley & Melinda Warren This report is a joint effort of the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University in St. Louis and the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center in Washington, D.C. The Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University in St. Louis supports scholarly research, public affairs programs, and other activities in the fields of economics, government, and public policy, serving as a bridge between scholars and policy makers. The George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center raises awareness of regulations effects to improve regulatory policy through research, education, and outreach. It is a leading source for applied scholarship on regulatory issues, and a training ground for current and future policy officials who want to understand the effects of regulation and ensure that regulatory policies serve the public interest. Publications are available from either center at the following addresses: Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy Washington University Campus Box 1027 One Brookings Drive St. Louis, MO Telephone: Fax: The George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center st St, NW, Suite 612 Washington, DC Telephone: Fax: Copyright 2014 by the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center and the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy. All rights reserved. ii

4 In Memoriam: Murray Weidenbaum ( ) We were saddened by the passing of Murray Lew Weidenbaum, a friend and mentor who first developed the measures of regulatory activity used in this report. Founder of the Center for the Study of American Business (now the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy), Murray passed away on March 20, He received a B.B.A. from City College of New York, an M.A. from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. from Princeton University. He was a beloved faculty member in Washington University s Department of Economics from 1964 until the time of his death. Throughout his career, Murray served or advised five U.S. presidents and scores of other policy makers. He served as President Ronald Reagan s first chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and was widely known as a key architect of Reaganomics, issuing the first written version of Reagan s economic plan in After leaving the post in 1982, he continued to serve on the President s Economic Policy Advisory Board. He was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy in the Nixon administration, fiscal economist at the Bureau of the Budget in the Truman administration and chair of the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission under President Clinton. His multiple talents placed him in demand for the boards of corporations and think tanks and for speaking and writing on a wide range of public policy issues. Much of Murray s academic research focused on regulatory process reform. One of his most important public policy contributions was his application of cost-benefit analysis to regulatory programs. In 1977, he and Robert DeFina published the first of the Weidenbaum Center s annual reports on federal regulatory activities. This first report, The Rising Cost of Government Regulation, was much shorter than the current report. Weidenbaum and DeFina looked at only the cost in the seven pages of this early report, and reported data from only Always careful to keep his opinion out of this report that is focused on reporting data, he offered no conclusions in the three paragraphs written to go along with the six pages of tables. In fact, the final sentence of this report is Tables 2 through 6 contain detail on each of the major sectors of federal regulation. The following year a much more comprehensive report, Directory of Federal Regulatory Agencies, was issued by the Weidenbaum Center s predecessor organization. This publication, which contained information on both spending and staffing, is the precursor of this report. iii

5 Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2014 and 2015 Contents List of Tables and Figures... v Executive Summary... 1 Overview... 2 Summary of Federal Regulatory Activity for FY 2014 and Spending... 4 Staffing... 7 Trends in Federal Regulatory Activity, Spending... 9 Staffing Conclusion Appendix Notes to Appendix Tables A-1, A-2, and A iv

6 Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2014 and 2015 List of Tables and Figures Table 1: Spending Summary for Federal Regulatory Agencies, Selected Years 5 Table 2: Agencies Budgeted for Increases or Decreases of $200 Million or More... 6 Table 3: Staffing Summary for Federal Regulatory Agencies, Selected Years.. 8 Figure 1: Budgetary Costs of Federal Regulation, Adjusted for Inflation Figure 2: Staffing of Federal Regulatory Agencies Table A-1: Agency Detail of Spending on Federal Regulatory Activity: Current Dollars, Selected Fiscal Years 15 Table A-2: Agency Detail of Spending on Federal Regulatory Activity: Constant Dollars, Selected Fiscal Years.. 18 Table A-3: Agency Detail of Staffing of Federal Regulatory Activity, Selected Fiscal Years Table A-4: Total Spending on Federal Regulatory Activity: Current Dollars, Table A-5: Total Spending on Federal Regulatory Activity: Constant Dollars, Table A-6: Total Staffing of Federal Regulatory Activity, v

7 Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2014 and 2015 Executive Summary This report tracks the portion of the Budget of the United States devoted to developing and enforcing federal regulations. It presents the President s requested budget outlays in fiscal year (FY) 2015, as well as estimated outlays for FY 2014 as reported in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2015 (Budget). It also provides data on annual outlays from fiscal year 1960 to the present. This regulators budget reflects the on-budget costs of regulation, and does not provide information on regulations benefits nor the full costs of regulations to society. Nevertheless, the time-series data presented here offer useful insights into the growth and changing composition of regulation over the last half-century. The regulators budget continues to grow at a modest pace. As estimated here, the President s proposed budget for regulatory activities in FY 2015 is $60.9 billion, a real (inflation-adjusted) increase of 3.5 percent above estimated FY 2014 outlays. The FY 2014 regulators budget of $57.8 billion is 2.0 percent larger than FY 2013 regulatory agencies outlays of $55.9. The Budget also requests increases in federal regulatory agency personnel of 0.8 percent in FY 2015 and 2.0 percent in FY Agencies that are at least partially funded by fees on the entities they regulate are generally growing at a faster rate than those that depend on appropriations from general funding. For example, the Food and Drug Administration, the Transportation Security Administration, the Patent and Trademark Office, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Securities and Exchange Commission all are estimated to have significant increases in their outlays in the twoyear period. Overall, outlays devoted to economic regulatory activities are increasing at a faster rate than those aimed at social regulatory activities, reversing a trend that began in the 1970s away from economic regulation of private-sector activities. This trend would likely be more dramatic if our data included agencies of the Department of Health and Human Services that pursue economic regulation of health insurance markets pursuant to the Affordable Care Act. While the staffing and outlays devoted to these regulations do fit the criteria for inclusion in this report, the 2015 Budget did not allow us to distinguish between resources devoted to regulations that affect private-sector behavior (covered in this report) from those that affect entitlement spending (not included here). 1

8 Economic Forms of Regulation on the Rise An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2014 and Overview Regulations are an important aspect of modern American life, yet measuring regulatory activity is challenging. This annual report provides one proxy of the size and growth in federal regulations over time the direct taxpayer costs associated with developing, administering, and enforcing federal rules and regulations from fiscal year (FY) 1960 to FY These data on federal outlays and staffing are extracted from the Budget of the United States Government that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) prepares and the President submits to Congress each year. 2 This report is a joint product of the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government and Public Policy at Washington University in St. Louis and the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center, and continues an effort begun in 1977 by the Weidenbaum Center (formerly the Center for the Study of American Business). While by no means a comprehensive measure of the impact of regulations, the trends in expenditures and staffing of federal regulatory agencies tracked here offer a useful measure of the size and growth in regulations with which American businesses, workers, and consumers must comply. 3 They can provide policy makers and analysts useful insights into the composition and evolution of regulation over time. 4 This report tracks the spending and staffing of 78 5 departments and agencies from 1960 to It examines expenditures in nominal and real (constant 2009) dollars, as well as staffing levels by agency and regulatory category. Expenditure data are based on reported outlays, and staffing data are reported in terms of full-time equivalent (FTE) employees. Data for 2014 and 2015 are estimates reported in the Budget of the United States Government presented by the President to Congress for FY The 2015 figures represent the President s requested outlays and personnel for each program area. The 2014 figures are OMB s estimates based on Congressional appropriations. 1 Susan Dudley is Director of the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center and Research Professor in the Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration. Melinda Warren is Director of the Weidenbaum Center Forum at Washington University in St. Louis. This report is one in a series designed to enhance the understanding of the impact of federal regulation on society and does not represent an official position of either the George Washington University or Washington University in St. Louis. 2 The Report also relies on the Federal Reserve System s Annual Report: Budget Review, the annual Economic Report of the President (for the deflators necessary for inflation-adjusted budget numbers), and the United States Coast Guard Posture Statement. 3 Other proxies include pages in the Federal Register and Code of Federal Regulations, and agency estimates of the costs and benefits of the most economically significant regulations issued each year (as reported by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Office of Management and Budget). 4 The authors make the full data set available to interested researchers on request. Please contact the GW Regulatory Studies Center or Weidenbaum Center. 5 Data for 2015 cover 78 ongoing regulatory agencies, however the historic data presented in the tables cover additional agencies that have been abolished or combined with newer agencies. The Notes to Appendices at the back of this report provide details on the organizational changes since

9 The report covers agencies whose regulations primarily affect private-sector activities, and expressly excludes budget and staffing associated with regulations that govern taxation, entitlement, procurement, subsidy, and credit functions. For example, the Internal Revenue Service, the Social Security Administration, and the Department of Defense are not included, although they issue regulations. The Department of Health and Human Services Center for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS), while issuing about one-third of all the final regulations published in a typical year, has traditionally been excluded because its regulations have primarily addressed the allocation of entitlements. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 granted CMS new responsibilities, many of which (such as the regulation of private insurance markets) are clearly within the scope of this report. However, the President s Budget does not allow us to distinguish spending and staffing for those activities from CMS s traditional responsibilities, and we were unable to include them here. The sections that follow divide federal regulatory activities into two main categories. The first category, social regulation, includes regulatory agencies that address issues related to health, safety, and the environment. The Environmental Protection Agency, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the Food and Drug Administration, and the Department of Homeland Security are examples of agencies that administer social regulations. This report further divides the social regulation category into five subcategories: (1) consumer safety and health, (2) homeland security, (3) transportation, (4) workplace, and (5) environment and energy. The second category, economic regulation, is more likely to be industry specific. The Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Communications Commission, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are examples of agencies that fall into the economic regulation category. These agencies regulate a broad base of activities in particular industries using economic controls such as price ceilings or floors, quantity restrictions, and service parameters. The economic regulation category is divided into three subcategories: (1) finance and banking, (2) industry-specific regulation, and (3) general business. Note that the industry-specific regulation category includes economic regulation of transportation and energy industries. Summary of Federal Regulatory Activity for FY 2014 and 2015 The Overview to the 2015 Budget promises stronger growth and job creation, opportunity for all, and fiscal responsibility. While it does not address regulation specifically, it does highlight government reform, saying the Budget promotes government management that delivers improved services that are more effective, efficient, and supportive of economic growth. 6 Estimated outlays for both fiscal years 2014 and 2015 reflect modest increases over previous years. The requested $60.9 billion in outlays for the FY 2015 regulatory activities tracked here are 5.2 percent higher than estimated current year outlays of $57.8 billion. This translates to a 3.5 percent increase after adjusting for inflation. The Budget indicates that estimated FY 2014 regulatory outlays are 2.0 percent higher than FY 2013 in real terms. The requested FY 2015 staffing level of 281,527 employees at these agencies is 0.8 percent higher than in FY 2014, which in turn was 2.0 percent higher than in FY Fiscal Year 2015 Budget Overview, available at: 3

10 Spending This section highlights the allocation of the President s FY 2015 Budget outlays among the federal regulatory agencies. Table 1 provides summary statistics, and Appendix Tables A-1 and A-2 provide detail on estimated spending for regulatory agencies in 2014 and 2015 as well as actual outlays for previous years in both current and constant dollars. In the discussion that follows, dollar amounts are presented in nominal terms (see Table A-1 for details), while percentage changes are in real (2009 dollar) terms (details in Table A-2). The President s FY 2015 Budget requests a 3.5 percent real increase in outlays for the regulatory agencies tracked here, bringing the total regulators budget to $60.9 billion a $3.0 billion increase over estimated FY 2014 outlays. The Budget projects FY 2014 regulatory agency outlays to be 2.0 percent higher than in FY 2013 (a $1.9 billion increase). Social Regulation Slightly more than 80 percent of the FY 2015 regulators budget estimate is devoted to administering and enforcing social regulation. The budget request for social regulatory agencies is $49.2 billion in FY 2015, compared to $46.8 billion in FY These figures reflect increases of 3.3 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively over the previous fiscal year. The discussion below divides the social regulatory agencies into five subcategories: consumer safety and health, homeland security, transportation, workplace, and environment and energy. The President s FY 2015 Budget includes reductions in real outlays for agencies in the environment and energy, and transportation subcategories, and increases for the others. Only the consumer safety and health and transportation subcategories are estimated to have larger real outlays in FY 2014 than in the previous year. The consumer safety and health subcategory received the largest percentage increase in FY 2014 (16.4 percent) and outlays are expected to increase by 2.8 percent to $9.8 billion in FY The Food and Drug Administration s outlays comprise more than half of this subcategory s budget, and they continue to grow The Food and Drug Administration and agencies within the Department of Homeland Security receive large budget increases in FY faster than outlays at other agencies. FDA s estimated budget outlays are $4.5 billion in FY 2014 and $5.0 billion in FY 2015, real annual increases of 29.3 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively. Its budget has risen by $1.8 billion or 45 percent since passage of the Food Safety Modernization Act in Most of the other agencies estimated budgets are little changed over the two-year period, however budgets of the Animal Plant Health Inspection Service and the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives are slated for declines in 2015 after increasing in Agencies in the transportation and environment and energy subcategories face real reductions in budget outlays in FY Budget outlays for the homeland security subcategory are forecast to increase by 6.1 percent in FY 2015 after declining 3.1 percent in FY This is the largest budget subcategory, with requested outlays of $25.5 million in FY 2015 and $23.6 million in FY The Transportation Security Administration is budgeted for the largest 4

11 increase over $1 billion and more than 18 percent. Outlays for Customs and Border Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and the U.S. Coast Guard are each over $100 million larger than in FY Table 1 Spending Summary for Federal Regulatory Agencies, Selected Years (Fiscal Years, Millions of Dollars in Outlays )* (Estimated) % Change Current (Nominal) Dollars Social Regulation Consumer Safety and Health $102 $222 $1,252 $1,839 $3,650 $7,598 $7,942 $9,380 $9, % 4.5% Homeland Security ,589 3,359 7,874 22,863 24,046 23,649 25, % 7.9% Transportation ,493 3,062 3,113 3,330 3, % 0.7% Workplace ,012 1,428 2,083 2,126 2,154 2, % 4.0% Environment & Energy ,919 4,118 6,673 8,750 8,255 8,280 8, % -0.3% Total Social Regulation $354 $1,097 $6,058 $11,138 $21,118 $44,356 $45,482 $46,793 $49, % 5.1% Economic Regulation Finance and Banking $40 $98 $392 $1,309 $1,968 $3,167 $4,355 $4,438 $4, % -0.9% Industry-Specific Regulation ,276 1,383 1,436 1, % 8.8% General Business ,680 3,762 4,670 5,169 5, % 11.0% Total Economic Regulation $179 $487 $1,241 $2,554 $4,400 $8,205 $10,408 $11,043 $11, % 5.9% GRAND TOTAL $533 $1,584 $7,299 $13,692 $25,518 $52,561 $55,890 $57,836 $60, % 5.2% Annualized Percentage Change 11.5% 16.5% 6.5% 6.4% 8.0% -0.4% 3.5% 5.2% Constant (Real) 2009 Dollars Social Regulation Consumer Safety and Health $586 $995 $2,878 $2,775 $4,480 $7,532 $7,477 $8,700 $8, % 2.8% Homeland Security 833 1,503 3,652 5,068 9,664 22,666 22,638 21,936 23, % 6.1% Transportation ,264 1,222 1,833 3,036 2,931 3,089 3, % -1.0% Workplace ,720 1,527 1,753 2,065 2,002 1,998 2, % 2.3% Environment & Energy 167 1,112 4,411 6,213 8,191 8,675 7,772 7,680 7, % -2.0% Total Social Regulation $2,033 $4,919 $13,925 $16,805 $25,921 $43,973 $42,819 $43,403 $44, % 3.3% Economic Regulation Finance and Banking $230 $439 $901 $1,975 $2,416 $3,140 $4,100 $4,117 $4, % -2.6% Industry-Specific Regulation 523 1,237 1, ,265 1,302 1,332 1, % 6.9% General Business ,104 2,062 3,730 4,397 4,795 5, % 9.1% Total Economic Regulation $1,028 $2,183 $2,853 $3,853 $5,401 $8,134 $9,799 $10,243 $10, % 4.1% GRAND TOTAL $3,061 $7,102 $16,778 $20,658 $31,321 $52,108 $52,617 $53,646 $55, % 3.5% Annualized Percentage Change 8.8% 9.0% 2.1% 4.2% 5.2% -1.9% 2.0% 3.5% * FY 2014 estimates generally reflect appropriated outlays, while FY 2015 estimates reflect the President s request to Congress, as presented in the FY 2015 Budget of the United States Government. While the percentages reported for the decennial years represent annualized growth rates over the decade, the percentages for fiscal years each represent a one-year change. Note: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Source: Weidenbaum Center, Washington University and the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center, derived from the Budget of the United States Government and related documents, various fiscal years. 5

12 Outlays for agencies in the workplace subcategory are budgeted to increase by 2.3 percent in 2015 after declining by 0.2 percent in 2014, bringing the total for this subcategory to almost $2.3 billion. Two subcategories face reductions in budget outlays, according to the President s Budget. The transportation subcategory is slated for a 1.0 percent real budget reduction in FY 2015, following a 5.4 percent increase in FY 2014, keeping total outlays on regulatory activities at $3.3 billion. Outlays for the environment and energy subcategory fall slightly in nominal terms to $8.3 million in FY 2015, reflecting a real decline of 2.0 percent reduction from This follows a 1.2 percent reduction in FY Economic Regulation Overall, the 2015 Budget requests $11.7 billion in outlays for economic regulation, a 4.1 percent increase over FY 2014 outlays of $11.0 billion (which in turn were 4.5 percent higher than FY 2013). Outlays devoted to economic regulatory activities are increasing at a faster rate than those aimed at social regulatory activities, and the economic regulation category now represents almost 20 percent of the total regulators budget. Overall, the finance and banking subcategory s outlays decline 2.6 percent in FY 2015, following a 0.4 percent increase in FY The Comptroller of the Currency faces a reduction in outlays which would offset increases in FY The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau continues to see its budgeted outlays increase, from $357 million in 2013 to $481 million in 2014 (a 32.7 percent increase) and $622 million in FY 2015 (a 27.1 percent increase). After a decline in outlays of over 27 percent in FY 2014, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation s outlays are slated to increase by 4 percent in FY The industry-specific regulation subcategory is smaller than the others, with a total of $1.6 billion in The Budget calls for increases of 2.3 percent in 2014 and 6.9 percent in Table 2 Agencies Budgeted for Increases or Decreases of $200 Million or More in Either Fiscal Year Agency FY 2014 Change FY 2015 Change ($ Millions) ($ Millions) Transportation Security Administration -$178 $1,044 Food and Drug Administration $1,071 $540 Immigration and Customs Enforcement -$635 $410 Customs and Border Protection $271 $291 Securities and Exchange Commission $152 $275 Patent and Trademark Office $345 $260 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation -$267 $43 Comptroller of the Currency $171 -$232 Source: Weidenbaum Center, Washington University and the George Washington Regulatory Studies Center, derived from the Appendix to the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2015 and related documents. 6

13 The general business subcategory includes the Patent and Trademark Office and the Securities and Exchange Commission, both of which receive large increases in both years. Overall, this subcategory is slated for increases of 9.1 percent in both fiscal years, with a requested $5.7 billion in outlays in FY Table 2 highlights the agencies designated to receive increases or decreases of $200 million or more in FY 2014 or Staffing Table 3 summarizes the staffing at federal regulatory agencies between FY 1960 and FY Appendix Table A-3 provides detail by agency. The President s Budget calls for 281,527 fulltime equivalent employees (FTEs) in 2015, or 2,106 more people (0.8 percent) than in Staffing grew by 2.0 percent between FY 2013 and FY Social Regulation Staffing of the social regulatory agencies comprises almost 85 percent of the regulators budget, and is slated to grow slightly by 0.1 percent to 237,567 people in FY The homeland security subcategory remains by far the largest employer in this category, with 146,109 FTEs. Staffing at Customs & Border Protection (CBP) grew by 1,338 people in 2014 and is budgeted for another 1,510 in 2015, for a full-time staff that would exceed that of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). (Requested staffing levels for CBP and TSA are 58,353 and 54,179, respectively in FY 2015). After TSA staffing increased by 989 FTEs in 2014, it is budgeted for a reduction of 2,468 people in The Coast Guard is slated for staff increases of 142 and 259 over the two fiscal years. Immigration and Customs Enforcement saw a decline of 437 employees in 2014 and is expected to add 42 people in Overall, staffing in this subcategory grew by 1.4 percent in FY 2014 and is expected to decline by 0.4 percent in FY The consumer safety and health subcategory is slated for the largest increases in this category in both years, with 2,526 new FTEs in 2014 and another 819 requested for Most of these The Food and Drug Administration and Customs and Border Protection are each adding over 2,500 new employees between 2013 and new employees will are joining the Food and Drug Administration, which added an estimated 1,731 new personnel in 2014 and is set to add another 1,033 people in 2015 (reflecting growth rates of 12.3 percent in 2014 and 6.5 percent in 2015). Most of the agencies in the transportation subcategory are estimated to have modest staffing increases in both years, but reductions at Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lead to overall staff declines in this subcategory of 0.8 percent in 2014 and 0.2 percent in FAA staff levels are estimated to decline by 3.9 percent in 2014 and 1.9 percent in 2015, for a total reduction in personnel of 354 FTEs over the two years. Staffing levels at agencies in the workplace subcategory increase by 1.9 percent in 2014 and 3.3 percent in The Department of Labor s Wage and Hour Division is budgeted for 305 new employees in 2015, reflecting a 16.9 percent increase over Staffing at the Equal 7

14 Employment Opportunity Commission increased by 200 people in 2014, but would remain at the 2014 level in Staffing in the environment and energy subcategory is expected to decline by 1.3 percent in 2015 to 27,321 FTEs. Most of the reduction comes from the Environmental Protection Agency, which experiences estimated force reductions of 240 people in 2014 followed by 210 fewer FTEs in The Department of Interior s Fish and Wildlife Service is also set for reductions in both 2014 and 2015 of 65 and 208 FTEs, respectively. The Budget reports staff increases at Interior s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement of 93 FTEs in 2014 and 51 in Table 3 Staffing Summary for Federal Regulatory Agencies, Selected Years (Fiscal Years, Full-time Equivalent Employment)* (Estimated) % Change Social Regulation Consumer Safety and Health 11,961 14,734 33,201 28,743 31,843 38,616 38,921 41,447 42, % 2.0% Homeland Security 17,514 22,496 35,333 44,158 60, , , , , % -0.4% Transportation 3,928 7,788 8,401 7,550 9,041 9,543 9,376 9,299 9, % -0.2% Workplace 4,151 7,571 17,894 13,610 12,204 12,105 11,959 12,188 12, % 3.3% Environment & Energy 1,265 5,096 20,218 25,414 29,730 31,132 27,666 27,669 27, % -1.3% Total Social Regulation 38,819 57, , , , , , , , % 0.1% Economic Regulation Finance and Banking 2,509 5,618 9,524 15,308 13,317 13,719 15,936 15,096 15, % 0.9% Industry-Specific Regulation 10,300 19,791 12,326 8,234 6,723 6,595 6,485 6,741 7, % 3.9% General Business 5,481 7,181 9,339 9,670 12,564 16,974 18,766 20,215 21, % 7.4% Total Economic Regulation 18,290 32,590 31,189 33,212 32,604 37,288 41,187 42,052 43, % 4.5% GRAND TOTAL 57,109 90, , , , , , , , % 0.8% Annualized Percentage Change 4.7% 4.9% 0.4% 1.4% 4.4% -1.5% 2.0% 0.8% * FY 2014 estimates generally reflect appropriated staffing levels, while FY 2015 estimates reflect the President s request to Congress, as presented in the FY 2015 Budget of the United States Government. While the percentages reported for the decennial years represent annualized growth rates over the decade, the percentages for fiscal years 2013 through 2015 each represent a oneyear change. Source: Weidenbaum Center, Washington University and the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center, derived from the Budget of the United States Government and related documents, various fiscal years. Economic Regulation Staffing at agencies in the economic regulatory agencies comprise slightly more than 15 percent of total staffing levels tracked in this report, however, these agencies are generally hiring at a faster rate than the social regulatory agencies are. Overall, the economic regulatory agencies are budgeted for personnel increases of 2.1 percent in 2014 (865 FTEs) and 4.5 percent in 2015 (1,908 FTEs). 8

15 Within the finance and banking subcategory, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau s staff continues to grow, with 462 new employees in 2014 and 172 in 2015 (increases of 39.8 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively). The Budget estimates that the supervisory staff of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (which is the portion of the staff this report considers regulatory), declines by 1,540 in 2014 and another 50 FTE in Overall, staffing in this subcategory declines by 5.3 percent in 2014 and is estimated to increase by 0.9 percent in The industry-specific subcategory is scheduled for increases of 3.9 percent in each fiscal year. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is budgeted for the bulk of the 2015 increase, with 254 new employees (a 37.7 percent increase over 2014). The Patent and Trademark Office continues to add staff for a twoyear increase of 2,100 full-time employees. The general business subcategory includes two agencies slated for significant personnel increases in both 2014 and The Patent and Trademark Office added 1,122 employees in 2014 and would add an additional 978 in 2015 under the President s Budget. The staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission grew by 198 FTEs in 2014 and is budgeted for 464 more employees in Altogether, this category adds 1,449 regulators in 2014 and another 1,503 in Trends in Federal Regulatory Activity, Perhaps the most interesting application of these data is in tracking changes in regulatory agency budgets and staffing over time. Figure 1 graphs the changes in real (inflation-adjusted) federal regulatory expenditures between 1960 and Figure 2 shows the trends in staffing at federal regulatory agencies over the same 56-year period. Spending While spending has generally been increasing over the last 56 years, the focus of that spending and the rate of increase have varied with perceptions of public policy issues at the time and with the philosophies of elected officials in the executive and legislative branches of the federal government. The 1960s were characterized by very rapid growth in regulatory expenditures. Total spending at federal regulatory agencies increased by $4.0 billion between 1960 and Outlays grew at a real rate of 8.8 percent per year on average, for a total increase of percent over the decade. Most of this expansion more than $2.9 billion occurred in social regulatory agencies (which experienced a real percent increase in their combined annual budget over the decade). Economic regulatory programs expanded more slowly, by $1.1 billion or percent over the period. 7 In this section, both percentage change and dollar figures are expressed in real (inflation-adjusted) terms using 2009 as the base year. 9

16 Figure 1 Budgetary Costs of Federal Regulation, Adjusted for Inflation Source: Weidenbaum Center, Washington University and the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center. Derived from the Budget of the United States Government and related documents, various fiscal years. These trends continued in the 1970s. Over that decade, real spending at regulatory agencies grew by $9.7 billion or percent (9.0 percent per year on average). Social regulatory expenditures continued to grow rapidly and increased by $9.0 billion (183.1 percent) while economic agencies showed a much smaller increase of $0.7 billion (30.7 percent). Most of the increase occurred in the early part of the decade, when several of the significant social regulatory agencies (particularly the Environmental Protection Agency and the Occupational Safety and The rapid growth in regulatory expenditures in the 1960s and early 1970s mainly occurred in the social regulatory agencies. Health Administration) were formed. Double-digit increases in the first three years were followed by much slower growth in the budgets of both social and economic regulatory agencies during the latter part of the decade. This slower rate of growth continued into the early 1980s. Total real annual expenditures on regulatory programs declined by 11.3 percent between 1980 and 1982, but rebounded later in the decade, for an overall increase of 23.1 percent between 1980 and Throughout the decade, spending on economic regulation increased at a faster rate 35.1 percent between 1980 and 1990 than spending on social regulation, which grew by 20.7 percent over the same period. On an annual basis, spending increased by an average of 2.1 percent over the decade. The budgetary costs of regulation in 1990 were $3.9 billion greater than in

17 Regulatory spending continued to grow in the 1990s, for a total increase of $10.7 billion or 51.6 percent over the decade. The budgets of agencies administering social regulation increased by 54.2 percent during this time, and those related to economic regulations increased by 40.2 percent. On an annual basis, the real rate of increase averaged 4.2 percent between 1990 and The first decade of the 21 st century witnessed a larger rate of increase in the outlays of regulatory agencies than the previous two decades, with a 66.4 percent increase between fiscal years 2000 and In FY 2010, the on-budget costs of regulation were $20.8 billion greater than at the start of the decade, almost double the inflation-adjusted dollar growth in spending of any prior decade. Social regulatory agencies expenditures increased 69.6 percent over the decade and economic regulatory agencies rose by 50.6 percent. The annualized rate of increase over the decade was 5.2 percent. The first decade of the 21 st century witnessed a larger rate of increase in the outlays of regulatory agencies than the previous two decades, due largely to an increased focus on homeland security regulation. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA), which received its first year of funding in FY 2002, accounts for much of the growth in this decade. TSA spending in FY 2003 was 24 percent of the regulators budget (see Figure 1) and in recent years has been about 10 percent of the total regulatory outlays tracked here. Excluding TSA expenditures, growth from FY 2000 to 2010 was 50.8 percent. Between 2010 and 2015, regulatory agencies outlays have increased by $3.4 billion, or 6.5 percent. During this 5-year period, the budgets of economic regulatory agencies have grown by 31.1 percent, while the budgets of social regulatory agencies have grown 2.0 percent. Staffing During the decade of the 1960s, the number of employees at regulatory agencies grew by 58.1 percent overall, from 57,109 in 1960 to 90,275 in 1970 (an increase of over 33,000). Social regulatory agencies gained almost 19,000 new personnel, and economic agencies added over 14,000 new staff members. In the 1970s, regulatory agencies hired almost 56,000 new full-time employees (FTEs) an increase of 62.0 percent, so that staffing levels reached 146,236 by decade s end. During this period, employment at the economic regulatory agencies declined by 1,400 FTE or 4.3 percent overall. However, the social regulatory agencies almost doubled their staff, for an increase of 57,362 employees (99.4 percent). Staffing at regulatory agencies was cut back significantly in the early 1980s, so that between 1980 and 1985, personnel levels declined by 12.7 percent (12.4 percent at the social agencies and 13.8 percent at the economic regulatory agencies) or over 18,000 FTEs. Starting in 1987, the trend reversed, so that by 1990, staffing at federal regulatory agencies was 4.4 percent higher than it had been in With this net increase of 6,451 employees, the decade of the 1980s ended with a total of 152,678 full-time employees focused on regulation. Social regulatory agencies increased staffing by 3.8 percent, and economic regulatory personnel grew by 6.5 percent. 11

18 Figure 2 Staffing of Federal Regulatory Agencies Source: Weidenbaum Center, Washington University and the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center. Derived from the Budget of the United States Government and related documents, various fiscal years. The staffing increases that began in the late 1980s continued in the 1990s. Between 1990 and 1995, regulatory agencies added over 21,000 employees (a 13.8 percent increase overall), with increases of 14.0 percent at social regulatory agencies and 13.4 percent at economic regulatory agencies. After staffing reductions in 1996 and 1997, the decade ended with over 23,000 new federal regulatory employees (a 15.2 percent increase). Social regulatory agencies added 23,757 employees (a 19.9 percent increase), while economic regulatory agencies personnel declined by 1.8 percent (608 people). Total regulatory agency staffing had reached 175,836 by Between 2000 and 2010, staffing levels jumped 54.0 percent, or almost 95,000 FTEs. This is the largest increase in the five decades tracked in this report, leading to 270,788 employees responsible for federal regulation by decade s end. More than half of the staffing increase in the first decade of the 21 st century was due to the creation in 2003 of the TSA, with its More than half of the almost 95,000- person staffing increase between 2000 and 2010 was due to the creation in 2003 of the Transportation Security Administration, with its large staff of screening agents. large staff of screening agents (numbering 52,644 in 2010). Excluding TSA, staffing at the social regulatory agencies increased 26.3 percent over the decade and staffing at economic regulatory agencies increased 14.4 percent. 12

19 If appropriated, the requested staffing for FY 2015 would be 4.0 percent higher than in 2010, an increase in the number of regulatory personnel of 10,739 over 5 years. Most of these new employees (6,672) will be at the economic regulatory agencies, at which staff levels are projected to grow by 17.9 percent over the 5-year period. Social regulatory agencies are estimated to add 4,067 FTEs during the same period, for a growth of 1.7 percent. Conclusion The President s proposed budget for the regulatory agencies tracked in this report seeks $60.9 billion in FY 2015, a real (inflation-adjusted) increase of 3.5 percent over estimated FY 2014 outlays of $57.8 billion. Most federal regulatory agencies will see modest increases in personnel, for an overall increase in the agencies tracked here of 0.8 percent in 2015 and 2.0 percent in Overall, outlays devoted to economic regulatory activities are increasing at a faster rate than those aimed at social regulatory activities, reversing a trend that began in the 1970s away from economic regulation of private-sector activities. Economic regulatory agencies face increases of 4.1 percent in 2015 and 4.5 percent in 2014, compared to increase of 3.3 percent and 1.4 percent for the social regulatory agencies in the same years. This appears to be due mainly to the regulatory activity authorized by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The trend would likely be more pronounced if our data included agencies of the Department of Health and Human Services that pursue economic regulation of health insurance markets pursuant to the Affordable Care Act. Agencies that are at least partially funded by fees on the entities they regulate are generally growing at a faster rate than those that depend on appropriations from general funding. For example, the Food and Drug Administration, the Transportation Security Administration, the Patent and Trademark Office, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Securities and Exchange Commission all are estimated to have significant increases in their outlays between FY 2013 and FY

20 Appendix The Weidenbaum Center at Washington University has monitored trends in federal regulation for 39 years and has compiled 56 years of data on the on-budget expenses of federal regulation. For the last four years, the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center has joined the Weidenbaum Center to prepare this annual report on the regulatory administration and enforcement costs embodied in the annual Budget of the United States. New data for this report were drawn from the Budget of the United States, Fiscal Year 2015 and supporting documents. This Budget, also known as the President s Budget, was presented to Congress on March 4, 2014, approximately seven months prior to the beginning of the fiscal year, which begins October 1, 2014 and ends September 30, In this report, all references to specific years refer to fiscal years unless otherwise noted. Budget figures for the 78 regulatory agencies contained in Table A-1 reflect outlays. These data are expressed in current dollars, rounded to the nearest million. Table A-2 provides comparable information in real terms (constant 2009 dollars). Because these numbers are rounded to the nearest million, the numbers do not necessarily add to totals. The data on outlays provide a clear picture of the resources the covered regulatory agencies direct to regulation in a given year. For example, some agencies are funded, partly or totally, by fees collected from businesses and individuals and these fee structures have changed over the years. The outlays reported here are gross of fees collected. The staffing figures shown in Table A-3 are derived from the full-time equivalent employment numbers for each agency. For example, two employees, each working half time, are counted as one full-time equivalent. Tables A-4 and A-5 provide data from 1960 to 2015 for annual outlays in current and constant dollars for major categories of regulation. Table A-6 provides staffing data from 1960 to Detailed agency-by-agency data can be obtained by contacting the Weidenbaum Center at Washington University or the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center. Agencies that primarily perform taxation, entitlement, procurement, subsidy, and credit functions are excluded from this report. Examples of these organizations are the Internal Revenue Service, the Social Security Administration, the Department of Defense, and the Center for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS) of the Department of Health and Human Services. While regulatory functions recently assigned to CMS do affect private transactions, we were unable to distinguish the outlays and staffing for those activities from the entitlement funding and thus have not included them in this report. The notes to the appendix, which follow the appendix tables, give background on organizational changes since the Weidenbaum Center began tracking trends in regulatory budgets and staffing in Some agencies have been abolished while others have been created. Names of agencies have changed over time. These notes help readers make sense of name and other changes that have occurred over the years. 14

21 Table A-1 Agency Detail of Spending on Federal Regulatory Activity: Current Dollars (Selected Fiscal Years, Billions of Dollars) Social Regulation (Estimated) % Change Consumer Safety and Health Consumer Product Safety Com. n/o n/o % 3.3% Department of Agriculture: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Svc. (1) ,340 1,226 1,411 1, % -8.1% Food Safety and Inspection Svc. (2) n/o n/o ,169 1,195 1,199 1, % -0.5% Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards (3) n/o % 1.1% Risk Management Agency n/o n/o n/o n/o % 7.0% --Subtotal ($ mil) ,602 2,674 2,583 2,774 2, % -4.1% Department of Health and Human Services: Food and Drug Admin. (4) ,209 3,003 3,430 4,501 5, % 12.0% Department of Housing and Urban Development: Consumer Protection Programs (5) n/o n/o % 0.0% Office of Lead Hazard Control and Healthy Homes (5) n/o n/o n/o n/o % 0.8% Office of Federal Enterprise Oversight (6) n/o n/o n/o n/o 18 n/o n/o n/o n/o Subtotal ($ mil)-- n/o n/o % 0.7% Department of Justice: Drug Enforcement Admin. (7) n/o % -2.8% Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (8) ,233 1,225 1,327 1, % -0.2% --Subtotal ($ mil) ,483 1,526 1,685 1, % -0.8% Department of Treasury: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (8) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o % 2.8% Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board n/o n/o n/o % 3.4% Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Bd. (9) n/o n/o n/o n/o % 9.1% Federal Mine Safety and Health Review Com. n/o n/o % 6.3% TOTAL--Consumer Safety and Health ($ mil) ,252 1,839 3,650 7,598 7,942 9,380 9, % 4.5% 2. Homeland Security Department of Homeland Security: (10) Area Maritime Security (11) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o - - Customs and Border Protection (12) ,664 2,802 9,923 10,332 10,603 10, % 2.7% Immigration and Customs Enforcement (13) ,355 5,458 5,497 4,862 5, % 8.4% Coast Guard (14) ,717 2,476 2,897 3,039 3, % 3.8% Science and Technology (15) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o % 6.3% Transportation Security Admin. (16) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o 4,922 5,260 5,082 6, % 20.5% TOTAL--Homeland Security ($ mil) ,589 3,359 7,874 22,863 24,046 23,649 25, % 7.9% 3. Transportation (17) Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Admin. (18) ,622 1,532 1,585 1, % -2.8% Federal Highway Admin. (19) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o - - Federal Motor Carrier Safety Admin. (20) n/o n/o n/o n/o % 15.4% Federal Railroad Admin. n/o % 1.7% National Highway Traffic Safety Admin. n/o % -8.2% Pipeline & Hazardous Materials Safety Admin. (21) n/o n/o n/o % 20.3% Surface Transportation Bd. (22) n/o n/o n/o n/o % 0.0% --Subtotal ($ mil) ,416 2,973 3,010 3,233 3, % 0.5% National Transportation Safety Board n/o % 7.2% TOTAL--Transportation ($ mil) ,493 3,062 3,113 3,330 3, % 0.7% 15

22 Table A-1 continued (Estimated) % Change Workplace Department of Labor: Employment Standards Admin. (23) n/o n/o n/o - - Office of Workers Comp Pgms, Wage & Hour Div (24) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o % 13.1% Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (24) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o % 13.7% Office of the American Workplace (25) n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o - - Employee Benefits Security Admin. (26) n/o n/o n/o n/o % 1.0% Mine Safety and Health Admin. (27) % 0.5% Occupational Safety and Health Admin. n/o n/o % 2.2% --Subtotal ($ mil) ,428 1,493 1,501 1, % 4.4% Department of Transportation: Office of Civil Rights n/o n/o n/o n/o % -9.1% Access Board (28) n/o n/o n/o % 14.3% Equal Employment Opportunity Com. n/o % 1.4% National Labor Relations Bd % 5.3% Occupational Safety and Health Review Com. n/o n/o % 18.2% TOTAL--Workplace ($ mil) ,012 1,428 2,083 2,126 2,154 2, % 4.0% 5. Environment & Energy Council on Environmental Quality n/o n/o % 0.0% Department of Agriculture: Forest and Rangeland Research (29) n/o n/o n/o n/o % -12.5% Department of Defense: Army Corps of Engineers (30) % 6.3% Department of Interior: Fish and Wildlife and Parks (31) % -6.6% Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (32) n/o n/o n/o % -14.3% Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o % -9.2% Water and Science, Oil Spill Research n/o n/o n/o n/o % -16.7% Surface Mining Reclamation & Enforcement (33) n/o n/o % -6.2% U.S. Geological Survey (34) n/o n/o n/o n/o % 7.6% --Subtotal ($ mil) ,242 1,193 1,276 1,414 1, % -5.2% Department of Energy: Petroleum Regulation (35) n/o n/o n/o % 0.0% Federal Coordinator for Alaska Natural Gas Transportation (36) n/o n/o 5 n/o n/o n/o 0.0% - Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (37) n/o n/o % -10.8% --Subtotal ($ mil)-- n/o n/o % -9.9% Nuclear Regulatory Commission (38) ,077 1,027 1,058 1, % 4.1% Environmental Protection Agency (39) ,282 2,950 4,478 5,437 5,067 4,954 5, % 1.4% TOTAL -- Environment & Energy ($ mil) ,919 4,118 6,673 8,750 8,255 8,280 8, % -0.3% TOTAL SOCIAL REGULATION ($ mil) 354 1,097 6,058 11,138 21,118 44,356 45,482 46,793 49, % 5.1% 1. Finance and Banking Economic Regulation Department of the Treasury: Comptroller of the Currency (40) ,077 1,254 1, % -18.5% Financial Crimes Enforcement Network n/o n/o n/o n/o % -1.7% Office of Thrift Supervision (41) n/o n/o n/o Subtotal ($ mil) ,053 1,186 1,369 1, % -17.1% Consumer Finanial Protection Bureau n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o n/o % 29.3% Farm Credit Admin % -1.5% Federal Deposit Insurance Corp , % 5.7% Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council n/o n/o n/o % -13.6% 16