RUTGERS UNJVERSITY The State University of New Jeiccey jzc I 2.

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1 RUTGERS UNJVERSITY The State University of New Jeiccey jz I 2. THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OP POLITIS FOR RELEASE WEDNESDAY, MAY 17, 1972 Jr ood Lawn, Nd/son ampus I Jrrc Thunswkk Net, Jcrscv org ONTAT: Stephen A. Salmore Tc/.2o With only one month to go before the rune primary, Senatory Hubert Humphrey is now the first choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination of New 7ersey s Democrats and Independents. This is a finding of the Third New 3ersey Poll conducted between April 28 and May 6 by the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. Figures released today put Senator Humphrey in first place among the Democratic contenders with 3l%1up from his 16% third place showing in Febnjarv. Senator George McGovern, in second place with 25% has dramatically improved his 3% February showing. Further back in third place is Governor George Wallace with 14%. Only 2% favor either Senator Henry Jackson or Representative Shirley hishoim, 3% mentioned other candidates while 22% had no preference. Siice Senator Edmund Muskie had already announced he would not be contesting any more primaries, his name was not included in the list of cndidates read to each respondent. When asked who they would favor if the race narrowed to Humphrey and McGovern, New Jersey s Democrats and Independents continue to favor Humphrey. The Minneota Senator leads McGovern 45% 35% with 20% undecided. When posed with the possibility of a convention deadlock;a plurality of Democrats and Independents inclicated that Senator Edward Kennedy would not be a good choice for the Democratic nomination. The Massachusetts Senator s nomination was rejected by a 41% 47% margin with 12% undecided.

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3 2 Senators Humphrey and McGovern, the two leading contenders,have very different kinds of followings. When asked to choose between the two, New Jersey Democrats prefer Humphrey by a margin. Among Independents who lean toward the Democratic party, however, McGovern is favored by Independents who express no partisan preference are evenly divided giving each Senator 31%. However, 38% of this group were undecided indicating this group s lower level of interest in the Democratic primary. Humphrey does particularly well among the state s non-white citizens, leading McGovern byjoverwhelming margin. Humphrey s lead among whites, however, narrows to a slim Humphrey also shows strength with members of families headed by a union member, leading McGovern Among non-union family members, McGovern is on top by McGovern s strength is drawn from those with family incomes of over $15,000, leading Humphrey in this group 55 34, and with those who have attended college, leading Humphrey Humphrey s support generally rises with the age of the voter, reaching a high of 57% among voters over 60 as compared to McGovern s 17%. McGovern gathers strength in the younger age groups, garnering 48% of those under 30 with Humphrey receiving the support of 36%. Senator Kennedy is considered to be a good alternative for the Presidential nomination if the Democratic convention deadlocked by 50% of Democrats with 44% disagreeing. Among Independents who leaned toward the Democratic party Kennedy is thought to be a good choice by 47% with 46% in the negative. - more

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5 However, Kennedy is rejected as a compromise candidate by 58% of Independents with only 24% of this group favorably disposed to the Massachusetts Senator. The Third New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone from the Eagleton Institute between April 28 and May 6. Of the 1218 New Jersey citizens over 18 who were interviewed, 703 were Democrats or rndependents. The Poll is supported by grants from the Wallace-Eljabar Foundation and the Eagleton Institute. 30

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7 - However, Kennedy is rejected as a compromise candidate by 58% of Independents with only 24% of this group favorably disposed to the Massachusetts Senator. The Third New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone from the Eagleton Institute between April 28 and May 6. f the 1218 New Jersey citizens over 18 who were interviewed, 703 were Democrats or Independents. The Poll is supported by grants from the Wallace-Eljabar Foundation end the Eagleton Institute. 30

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9 demographic groups. Table 1 gives the results for the first question plus the results for Table 2 gives the results of the second question for various was not included. However, 2% did mention him as their first choice. the same question asked in the Second New Jersey Poll conducted between February 18 and 28. N.J. Political Reporters 2 May 15, 1972 S contest any more primaries before the interviewing began, his name Since Senator Muskie had already declared that he would not

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11 First hoice for Democratic Nomination for President Wallace 14 * Jackson 2 3 McGovern 25 3 April 28 May 6 February Humphrey TABLE 1 4% 4 *Not included in list of candidates offered to respondents. Don t Know Other 3 2 Muskie * 30 Kennedy * 18 hisholm 2 5 N.J. Political Reporters 3 May 15, 1972

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13 N.J. Political Reporters 4 May 15, TABLE2 Humphrey McGovern Don t Know All Respondents Democrat Independent leaning Dem Independent Liberal onservative Under * Over White Non white Less than High School High School omplete More than High School Less than $5, $5,000 $10, $10,000 $15, More than $15, Blue ollar White ollar I Union Family Non-union Family Men Women N.B. Rows may not add to 100% due to rounding I * - -.* t 1

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