Keys to the White House. Keys to the White House 10/1/2011. Professor Allan Lichtman: Keys to the White House 2012

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1 THE MODERN PRESIDENCY AP Gov Lecture # 18 Professor Allan Lichtman: Keys to the White House 2012 Imagine the next presidential election is being held tomorrow. Read through the handout entitled The 13 Keys to the White House Using the criteria described, determined if Barack Obama would win a 2 nd term as president. Keys to the White House 1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party (democrats) hold the majority of seats. 2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination Keys to the White House 3. The incumbent party is the sitting president 4. There is no significant third party candidate 5. The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign* 6. Real per capita economic growth exceeds the average growth of the previous two terms 7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy 1

2 Keys to the White House 8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term 9. The incumbent sustains no major scandals 10. The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign policy failures 11. The incumbent achieves a major success in foreign policy and foreign affairs 12. The incumbent is charismatic 13. The challenger is not charismatic 9 keys= Obama wins par a dox/parədäks/ Noun: A statement or proposition that, despite sound (or apparently sound) reasoning from acceptable premises, leads to a conclusion that seems senseless, logically unacceptable, or self-contradictory. FORMAL QUALIFICATIONS 35 YEARS OF AGE 2030 FORMAL QUALIFICATIONS BORN IN THE U.S. 2

3 FORMAL QUALIFICATIONS LIVED IN THE U.S. AT LEAST 14 YEARS THE PRESIDENCY INFORMAL QUALIFICATIONS Male - 100% Protestant - 97% British Ancestry - 82% College Education -77% Politicians - 69% Lawyers - 62% Elected from large states - 69% KEY CONCEPT #1 The power of the president has grown tremendously since World War II. The modern Presidency begins with FDR who was elected to four terms during two huge national crises: The Great Depression and WWII. The Modern Presidency In the 20th century, the presidency has become ever more powerful. FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MODERN PRES: leads a large government plays an active and leading role in foreign and domestic policy plays a strong legislative role and uses technology to get 'close to Americans.' 3

4 Presidential Public Activities Internal Factors Presidential Management Styles Models of Presidential Power Model followed today? Advantages & disadvantages? Party associations with which Model & why? Restricted Presidents only allowed to exercise powers granted by Constitution or Statutory laws Prerogative When nation is at stake, President may take any action necessary, regardless of legality Steward President, representing the entire nation, must act as a steward 4

5 10/1/2011 Presidents and War Powers President and War Powers President has been at odds with Congress over war powers for quite some time 5

6 6

7 KEY CONCEPT #2 The President s strongest powers are implied. 7

8 President s #1 Weapon KEY CONCEPT #3 The size of the President s office has grown to keep pace with the demands of the office. The president received certain enumerated powers in the Constitution, however the first line of Article II may be the most important grant of power to the president. But most of the seven roles derive from IMPLIED powers Key Offices of EOP White House Office President s Cabinet Office of Management & Budget (OMB) The National Security Council Office Of the Vice President 8

9 OMB National Security Council (1947) Interns? Vice President Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff National Security Advisor Helps president draft his budget proposal Reports directly to Pres Mostly independent State Defense The President s Cabinet Nixon s Seating Chart Inner Cabinet State Defense Treasury Justice 9

10 Outer Cabinet Interior Agriculture Commerce Labor HHS HUD Trans Energy Education VA "My country has in its wisdom contrived for me the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived." -John Adams, 1789 ALL must be confirmed by Senate including AG Homeland Security The Vice President Primary job= sit around and don t die. Only formal duty= preside over the Senate or to break tie votes in the Senate. A vice president is chosen for a number of reasons: geographical balance to bring the party back together at the convention achieve a social and cultural balance on the ticket. VPs can also be used to overcome candidate shortcomings. How to Pick a Vice President to Balance the Ticket 10

11 Old and out-of-touch? Balancing the ticket Go with young and crazy! Balancing the ticket Northern, BOTOXed, liberal elitist? Go with Southern, tanned playboy! Inexperienced common man? Balancing the ticket Go with ruthless, shadow puppeteer! Beard? Balancing the ticket Better beard! 11

12 10/1/2011 Key Concept #4 The president must be all things to all people. 12

13 How to Impeach a President How to Impeach a President 13

14 How to Impeach a President How to Impeach a President How to Impeach a President How to Impeach a President 14

15 Removal of a President Chief-of-State Head of State Chief Diplomat Chief Executive Chief of Party Commander -in-chief Chief Legislator 15

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