National Popular Vote

Transcription

1 National Popular Vote

2 Motivations This is NOT about trying to change the rules so that Team A or Team B has a better chance. This is about improving our elections for better democracy, better participation, better conversations.

3 Agenda Current electoral college process Effects of current system NPV explained Other solutions NPV doubters NPV benefits Now what

4 At the beginning At constitutional convention, founders decided to put the electoral college in place and let the states decide how to send electors. The founders went back to their home states and passed their own state laws on how the president would be elected. Election of 1796 illustrates how the Founders intended - the EC deliberated about the presidency

5 History of Winner Take All Laws 1800 started a domino effect so that by 1824 ten states had enacted winner-take-all laws By 1836 all but one state had them, and by 1880 all states had them Maine went to district elections in 1969 and Nebraska followed in The winner-take-all approach in each state distorts the value of each vote. Swing states become very powerful

6 The electoral college Each state is allocated a certain number of electors who in turn select the president. (total = 538) Federal law specifies how many electors each state gets and when they must make their selections. State law specifies how electors are selected for each state. Electors in each state sign Certificates of Vote which are then given to the US Senate. The certificates of votes are then counted in a joint session of congress. If no one candidate receives a majority (270) of electoral votes, then the House of Representatives votes.

7 Effects of winner-take-all Campaign effects Policy effects Voter participation effects

8 2012 Presidential Elections After Party Conventions candidate visits went to only 12 states 54.4% of TV ad spending went to OH, FL, VA 58.9% of Campaign Events went to OH, FL, VA 4/5 of states and 4/5 of voters do not matter in the General Election for President. Guess which state s issues get attention?

9 2016 Presidential Elections Again, after Party Conventions candidate visits largely went to only 12 states 2/3 of events were in just 6 states (FL, NC, PA, OH, VA, MI) Roughly 95 Million Americans were in the 12 battleground states. 215 Million Americans were largely ignored Again, which states get their issues addressed?

10 Policy Examples due to Today s Swing State System Between 1996 and 2008, swing states received 7.6% more federal grants and about 5.7% more grant money than safe states No Child Left Behind targeted suburban soccer moms in Ohio Ethanol and corn subsidies exist to woo voters in Iowa Steel Tariffs were passed by George HW Bush to secure votes in Pennsylvania Medicare Part D passed by George Bush to secure Florida votes And so on

11 Big Issues Get Ignored Not just voters and states that get ignored National Issues get ignored in general elections (infrastructure, national debt, environment, etc.) Campaigns only listen to voters in a few states NPV is the only way to get attention to national issues.

12 In Swing States, Tiny Issues Matter

13 Pennsylvania s NPV Debate in 2011

14 Voter Turnout Swing states about 60% of age eligible voters turn out Safe states about 45% of age eligible voters turn out data: FL 56.9% - HI 38.3% PA 61% - TX 43.4% OH 61% - CA 47% CO 64.6% (yay) - AZ 48.9% source:

15 What is National Popular Vote? Presidency awarded to the national popular vote winner Via an interstate compact n/ /electoral-college-1 01.html

16 How does National Popular Vote work? Takes effect when passed by states totaling 270 electoral votes Counts the votes in ALL 50 states and D.C. whether states are in the compact or not Awards the electors to the popular vote winner National Popular Vote has been passed in 11 states totaling 165 electoral votes so far National Popular Vote has passed legal review in 23 states.

17 Text of the NPV law The chief election official of each member state shall certify the appointment in that official s own state of the elector slate nominated in that state in association with the national popular vote winner. and other clauses about when it takes effect and specifies that each state will conduct a popular vote. 888 words in total, including definitions. Must be enacted into law in each state with the same text.

18 Where does the authority come from? The U.S. Constitution, Article 2, Section 1, Clause 2 reads: Each state shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress That is, the states decide

19 Other proposed solutions Constitutional Amendment to change presidential elections NPV is simpler: The States keep ownership Keeps EC, but directs it to follow will of people States can continue to evolve the way they select delegates Congressional District Method Would make gerrymandering worse

20 NPV doubters say Rural vs urban, however... According to a 2015 study (fivethirtyeight), nationally, 26 percent of Americans described where they live as urban, 53 percent said suburban and 21 percent said rural. Media cost is less in rural areas Governors and senators do not ignore rural areas today Invested in current status-quo Don t want presidential campaigns amped up in their state Prefer their vote to be lumped with their state s votes Campaign managers would have to radically change their campaign strategy Past elections and different outcomes, however with NPV, campaigns would have been different it is impossible to project past winners based on NPV Concerns about legalities NPV has passed legal review in 23 states

21 Imagine an Election with NPV Campaigns would need to speak to all voters Campaign issues would be different The candidates would likely be different Turnout would be different Election Day would be very different EVERY VOTE, EVERYWHERE, WOULD MATTER

22 Time to Learn More!

23 Please Review the NO Arguments Watch the No videos on YouTube and read some no articles. Some of their claims are silly, but some sound serious. Review Chapter 9 of the National Popular Vote book for answers to each of the myths Feel free to contact us with any unanswered questions and take your time It took us a long time to figure it all out!

24 Please Review the YES Arguments Every vote equal = empowerment. You would vote as a US citizen not with a state. Direct democracy. President and Vice President are the ONLY major offices not directly elected. Popular vote for governors, representatives, and senators works. Popular vote for president works in other countries. Less confusing.

25 Most Importantly National Popular Vote is Constitutional National Popular Vote is an exercise in State Sovereignty National Popular Vote is the best way to ensure that a vote every where matters. We can leave the compact as easily as we get into it

26 Current national status Passed in 11 places: CA, DC, HI, IL, WA, MA, MD, NJ, NY, RI, VT. All of these had bi-partisan support. Passed in at least one chamber in 23 states Passed in one chamber or another in Colorado in the past National efforts going on in CT, AZ, AK, OR. Soon to be focus on OK, UT

27 Current Colorado status Introduced in Senate in 2017 died in committee In 2018, likely to be introduced in the House We need it to get the floor of either the House or the Senate to get good discussions To pass, we need both chambers to pass it and then the governor to sign it We need an upswelling of citizens demanding the NPV be passed in Colorado We need to teach others about NPV

28 How Can You Help? Join ColoradoNPV Learn about NPV so you can educate Help us to reach additional groups Spread the word on social media Avoid Partisanship NOT a partisan effort Get active with your legislator

29 THANK YOU! For More Information: Colorado NPV coloradonpv.org

30 Extra slides follow

31 Pennsylvania s NPV Debate in 2011 (cont.)

32 Federalist Paper #45 The State governments may be regarded as constituent and essential parts of the federal government; whilst the latter is nowise essential to the operation or organization of the former. Without the intervention of the State legislatures, the President of the United States cannot be elected at all. They must in all cases have a great share in his appointment, and will, perhaps, in most cases, of themselves determine it. The Senate will be elected absolutely and exclusively by the State legislatures. Even the House of Representatives, though drawn immediately from the people, will be chosen very much under the influence of that class of men, whose influence over the people obtains for themselves an election into the State legislatures. Thus, each of the principal branches of the federal government will owe its existence more or less to the favor of the State governments, and must consequently feel a dependence, which is much more likely to beget a disposition too obsequious than too overbearing towards them.

33 April 3, 2015

34 What/Why the Electoral College? - A BRIEF REFRESHER - Created at the Constitutional Convention Maintains state power (worth protecting), while determining how large of a voice each state shall have The EC was a necessary compromise at the Constitutional Convention (after 30 votes in 22 days it was time to compromise)