1 Year into the Trump Administration: Tools for the Resistance. 11:45-1:00 & 2:40-4:00, Room 320 Nathan Phillips, Nathaniel Stinnett

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1 1 Year into the Trump Administration: Tools for the Resistance 11:45-1:00 & 2:40-4:00, Room 320 Nathan Phillips, Nathaniel Stinnett

2 Nathan Phillips Boston University Department of Earth & Environment

3 The Environmental Voter Project Local Environmental Action Conference 2018 Nathaniel Stinnett

4 Why Can t We Consistently Enact Progressive Environmental Policy? Voters do not prioritize environmental issues. Top Issues in Determining Presidential Vote 1 NATIONAL SECURITY & TERRORISM 12% 36% THE ECONOMY & JOBS IMMIGRATION HEALTH CARE CRIME & PUBLIC SAFETY SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME INEQUALITIES BETWEEN THE RICH & POOR 7% 6% 6% 6% 11% 11% 13% 12% 12% 11% 18% 20% 14% 33% Most important issue in determining vote GUN RIGHTS & GUN CONTROL GOVERNMENT SPENDING & BUDGET DEFICIT RACE RELATIONS SUPREME COURT NOMINATIONS 5% 8% 4% 7% 4% 6% 4% 6% 4% 5% Second most important PUBLIC EDUCATION 4% TAXES AND TAX REFORM 4% FOREIGN POLICY 2% CLIMATE CHANGE & THE ENVIRONMENT REDUCING STUDENT LOAN DEBT CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM 1% 1% 1% 1 ARResearch poll of likely voters in the 2016 Presidential Election, July 29 Aug. 3, 2016

5 This is a Big Problem The High Cost of Low Voter Demand Campaigns Only Target Likely Voters Campaigns have limited time and money, so campaigns, PACs, and other groups usually only communicate with the people who are most likely to vote in a particular election. Politicians Only Poll Likely Voters Because campaigns and outside groups only target likely voters, they also only poll likely voters to see which issues they care about. As a result, likely voters opinions end up being far more important to politicians than the opinions of other citizens. This is Bad News for the Environment Right now, every politician knows that likely voters rank environmental issues among their lowest concerns in each and every election. If voters aren t demanding environmental leadership, why would politicians supply it?

6 But this is also a Big Opportunity million environmentalists did not vote in 2014; We must focus on turnout instead of persuasion

7 Transforming the Electorate Changing habits not minds 200 million Registered Voters

8 Transforming the Electorate Changing habits not minds 2014 Environmental 2014 Turnout Voter = Turnout 83 million= 4.2 million

9 Transforming the Electorate Changing habits not minds 2016 Environmental 2016 Turnout Voter = Turnout 136 million = 10.1 million

10 Transforming the Electorate Changing habits not minds Environmentalists Registered to Vote = 20.1 million

11 Transforming the Electorate Changing habits not minds Pushing Environmentalists into the Electorate

12 The EVP Solution A long-term electorate-building approach; Focus only on the non-voting environmentalists ignored by others Identification: With big data analytics and predictive modeling, we identify millions of environmentalists by name and street address. We then focus only on those environmentalists who are the least likely to vote. Registration: If any environmentalists need to be registered, we use cutting-edge digital tools to find them online and send digital voter registration ads directly to those individuals. We also run phonebanks and canvasses to register voters. Mobilization: Using proven voter-turnout messaging that relies on the latest behavioral science, we canvass, call, mail, and send digital ads to our target environmentalists in the lead-up to every election (federal, state, and local).

13 Short Q & A

14 Nathan Phillips Boston University Department of Earth & Environment

The EVP Solution A long-term electorate-building approach; Focus only on the non-voting

we identify millions of environmentalists by name and street address.

Registration: If any environmentalists need to be registered, we use cutting-edge digital tools to

We also run phonebanks and canvasses to register voters.

15 The EVP Solution A long-term electorate-building approach; Focus only on the non-voting environmentalists ignored by others Identification: With big data analytics and predictive modeling, we identify millions of environmentalists by name and street address. We then focus only on those environmentalists who are the least likely to vote. Registration: If any environmentalists need to be registered, we use cutting-edge digital tools to find them online and send digital voter registration ads directly to those individuals. We also run phonebanks and canvasses to register voters. Mobilization: Using proven voter-turnout messaging that relies on the latest behavioral science, we canvass, call, mail, and send digital ads to our target environmentalists in the lead-up to every election (federal, state, and local).

16 Identification How we accurately identify non-voting Environmentalists The Big Data and Predictive Analytics Revolution How It Works: Survey large samples (20,000+ ppl) with one or two questions to ascertain which respondents strongly prioritize environmental issues when voting Identify hidden patterns and correlations to develop statistical models that can be applied to all voters Out of these environmental voters, only target those who are not perfect voters (i.e., we cannot already depend on them to vote in each election) Combine the survey results with the hundreds of data points appended to each voter in the voter file Build a predictive model that assigns each voter a score from based on how likely they are to prioritize environmental issues when voting

17 Weight Some Predictive Data Points No variable is necessarily predictive on its own

18 Records Voter Identification Assign probability scores (0-100) to each voter in a state; Extraordinarily accurate individualized targeting 450k 400k 350k 300k 250k 200k 150k 100k 50k Score

19 Voter Turnout Mobilizing environmentalists to vote in every election CANVASSING, CALLS, TEXTS & MAIL We run sophisticated GOTV campaigns with canvassers, phone-banks, text-banks, and direct mail, all tailored with messages specifically designed to get our identified environmentalists to vote. DIGITAL OUTREACH We use cutting-edge digital targeting that allows us to individually target our non-voting environmentalists online, communicate with them, and then get them to vote. MESSAGING Voter Pledges - You said you d vote; keep your promise! Peer Pressure - Your neighbors vote! Social Pressure - Your voting history is public information; here s your scorecard. NO ENDORSEMENTS We don t try to elect particular candidates; plenty of other groups already do that very well. We simply focus on the best ways to get environmentalists to become consistent voters we re like a big data version of Rock the Vote, but for environmentalists.

20 How Does Someone Decide to Vote Is it a rational, self-interested choice? RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY Citizens Will Vote if: Value of Voting > Costs of Voting Value of Voting = Expected benefit from Preferred Candidate winning discounted by the citizen s probability of affecting the outcome Value of Voting > Costs of Voting What We Don t Want To Do: Create a Rational Choice Context o Importance of Candidate X Winning o Importance of Climate Change in this Election o You should vote because...

21 Voting as an Expressive Choice Who are you? Who do you want to be? Peer Pressure Social Pressure RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY Low Turnout! Close Election! EXPRESSIVE CHOICE THEORY High Turnout! It s important to vote because Be a good voter! Appeal to personal self interest; help voters make an informed decision based on their unique preferences Everybody like you is voting! N/A We know whether you vote or not!

22 Turnout Messaging Examples

Proven Results Data from Multiple Randomized Control Experiments ACCURATE We scored an 89% accuracy rating on our ability to identify non-voting environmentalists, which is a stunning degree of

23 Proven Results Data from Multiple Randomized Control Experiments ACCURATE We scored an 89% accuracy rating on our ability to identify non-voting environmentalists, which is a stunning degree of precision for this type of work. POWERFUL In low, medium, and high-turnout elections, EVP consistently increased voter turnout among nonvoting environmentalists by 4.7% - 5.1% per election. BIG IMPACT If scaled to a national level, EVP s results would have added 475,000 brand new environmentalists to the 2016 presidential electorate an election that was decided by only 77,000 votes. CHANGING THE ELECTORATE After receiving EVP s turnout messaging for just one year, our target environmentalists had a stunning 12.1% higher turnout rate than comparable environmental voters. LONG-TERM EFFECTS 3% of the environmentalists EVP targeted during our first year are now such consistent voters that EVP no longer needs to spend money mobilizing them, yet our donors initial investment will continue to bear fruit as these environmentalists show up to vote in countless future elections.

24 Our Targeted Mobilizations EVP is targeting 2.4 million environmentalists in 2018 Nevada Upcoming Races: Governor, US Senate, US House Massachusetts Upcoming Races: Governor, US Senate 100,000 non-voting environmentalists 250,000 non-voting environmentalists 600,000 likely voters in million likely voters in 2018 Colorado Upcoming Races: Governor, US House 210,000 non-voting environmentalists 1.9 million likely voters in 2018 Existing Operations New Expansion States Georgia Upcoming Races: Governor, 2 US House 290,000 non-voting environmentalists 2.6 million likely voters in 2018 Florida Upcoming Races: Governor, US Senate, 5 US House 960,000 non-voting environmentalists 6.2 million likely voters in 2018 Pennsylvania Upcoming Races: Governor, US Senate, 7 US House 595,000 non-voting environmentalists 3.9 million likely voters in 2018

25 What You Can Do Now Easy action items Pledge to Vote environmentalvoter.org/sign-the-pledge Promising to vote (and then being reminded of that promise) dramatically increases someone's likelihood of voting. Volunteer environmentalvoter.org/get-involved Each week we mobilize environmentalists to vote in elections across the country. We need canvassers, callers, and texters. Be a Loud & Proud Environmental Voter Peer pressure works. Make sure your friends know that being a voter is important to you as a person and as an environmentalist.

26 The Good News Changing Habits is Easier than Changing Minds

28 Q & A

Impact REPORT ENVIRONMENTAL VOTER PROJECT

Impact REPORT ENVIRONMENTAL VOTER PROJECT Impact REPORT 2016 ENVIRONMENTAL VOTER PROJECT OUR FIRST YEAR Our pilot program was a stunning success. Now, we re poised to launch a permanent and relentless mobilization campaign that could completely