Conflict studies: Conflict and Conflict Analysis

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1 Conflict studies: Conflict and Conflict Analysis Component-I (A) Personal Details Role Name Affiliation Principal Investigator Paper Coordinator, if any Prof. P.K Shajahan Professor, School of social work Tata Institute of Social Sciences Content Writer/Author (CW) Prof. P.K Shajahan Mr. Th Lunminlal Haokip* Professor, School of social work Tata Institute of Social Sciences *Research Scholar, School of Development Studies (TISS) Content Reviewer (CR) Prof. John Menacherry Principle Matru Seva Sangh Institute of Social work, Nagpur Language Editor (LE) Component-I (B) Description of Module Items Description of Module Subject Name Social Work Paper Name Fields of Practice in Social work Module Name/Title Conflict studies: Conflict and Conflict Analysis Module Id Pre-requisites<Expected to know before learning this module> What is mean by conflict, factors leading to conflict Objectives Understand the nature of a system that reproduces the incompatibility among social / political units Understand the factors leading to the origin, escalation, sustenance, and de-escalation of conflicts Understand positions, interests and needs of conflicting parties. Understand the indicators of conflict. Development of strategic plan for conflict control and resolution. 1

2 Key words Conflict, approaches to conflict, position, interest, human needs, conflict analysis, context analysis, profile, actor, causes of conflict, conflict indicators, conflict sensitivity 2

3 CONTENTS OF MODULE III: CONFLICT AND CONFLICT ANALYSIS 1. Introduction 2. Learning Objectives 3. Conflict and Approaches to Conflict a. Harvard Negotiation Approach b. Human Needs Approach c. Conflict Transformation Approach 4. Conflict Analysis 4.1 Basic Purposes of Conflict Analysis 4.2 Key Elements of Conflict Analysis 5. Tools of Conflict Analysis 6. Levels of Violence and Phases of Conflict 7. Methods, Sources of Information and Conflict Sensitivity 8. Questions for Self-Assessments and Exercise MODULE III: CONFLICT AND CONFLICT ANALYSIS 1. Introduction It is easier to find quality works on when overt conflict begins, and how devastating the conflict is on the general populace at the geographical location of the conflict; however, works on nature of conflict, conflict resolution and understanding of the essential inputs to healing enmity and building lasting peace between parties in conflict have been limited (Lewis, 1990: vii). This module brings together works on Approaches to Conflict Resolution and Conflict Analysis in the hope of finding application toward understanding of intractable conflicts and resolution of the conflicts. 2. Learning Objectives 1. Understand the nature of a system that reproduces the incompatibility among social / political units 2. Understand the factors leading to the origin, escalation, sustenance, and de-escalation of conflicts 3. Understand positions, interests and needs of conflicting parties. 4. Understand the indicators of conflict. 5. Identify the phases of relationship between the adversarial parties, starting from current situation with knowledge of history of the conflict, to the prediction of future 3

4 course of conflict. 6. Creation of knowledge base on conflict for use in understanding changing contours of conflicts and development of strategic plan for conflict control and resolution. 3. Conflict and Approaches to Conflict Conflict is simplified as contradictory interaction between two or more parties or actors with damage to lives and property of one side or both sides caused by the nature of hostility and mutual denial of necessities of good life to each other. In order to ensure equity in good life and progress to all humankind, ending long running feuds between opposing parties (nation versus nation, one religion against another religion, one ethnic group against another, the state versus those ideologically opposed to it, etc.) becomes unavoidable process to which emissaries of peace, order and progress must direct their efforts. In this search for remedy to the ills of war and conflicts, diagnosing causes of the ills suffered by mankind is a necessity. While inequality in wealth between different social groups, inequity inherent in the social system like caste hierarchy, and ideological differences are all important constituents of tinderbox; what sets the tinderbox on fire is often psychological and emotional frame of mind, which replaces rational thinking (Thant, 1966:2). Weaning minds away from sensationalism and suspicion (ibid.) of mass media becomes vital for conflict resolution. Conflict is broadly understood in any of the three approaches the Harvard Approach, Human Needs Approach, and Conflict Transformation Approach. These approaches present different understanding of conflicts, and set out arenas that must be looked into during the process of conflict analysis. a). Harvard Negotiation Approach: Negotiation is the unavoidable back-and-forth communication between two parties who have interests (Fisher, R. & Ury, W. 2011). Positional negotiations is conflicting parties taking a stance from which they bargain for concessions; and may compromise negotiation goal further enhancing the conflict. Principled negotiation, on the other hand, invites parties to focus on underlying factors that produce conflict, and indentify shared interest between the parties which leads to creation of conflict resolution roadmaps that is advantageous to both. Fisher and Ury (2011), thus, argues of conflict analysis that must yield understanding of the common interests of conflicting parties, from which innovation of options that advantage both parties may help resolve the conflict. b). Human Needs Approach: Conflict disturbs conditions of human existence as 4

5 individuals and social collectives. It argues that basic needs are vital to survival, but goes beyond survival to argue for human need of conditions under which full potential may be realized. In so doing human needs theory includes the natural environment, the cultural milieu, and the political and economic conditions that assure human development to the full potential (Jeong, 2008:28; Watt, 2003:657). Failure to meet or denial of these enriching conditions causes conflicts. Conflict, in turn, disturbs these combined milieus hampering the realization of human potential. Human Needs Approach to conflict analysis summons the importance of understanding the factors that shaped latent conflicts into overt conflicts. This approach brings out the teleological importance of the combined milieus of parties to the realization of human potential in social and political environment devoid of conflict. c). Conflict Transformation Approach: The conflict transformation approach mainly emphasizes peace and relations between conflicting parties, but not on security. Since the approach gives primacy to relations, it argues that compatible goals lead to peace while incompatible goals lead to conflicts. And it argues further that goal differences between the parties can be solved peacefully by the transformation of the nature of relation between the two parties. This approach further call for unorthodox conflict analysis that begins with each group of actors separately, identifying the wrongs they experienced, understanding the factors leading to conflict, and engaging each party to the conflict separately in creative search for new reality before bringing the two groups of actors to negotiating table. Conflict transformation approach is vastly different from the Security approach to conflict where one party is considered a threat, while the other is consider legitimate; thus denying the possibility of seeing both parties as participants whose relationship nature be transformed peacefully. Differences between Peace Approach and Security Approach Peace approach Security Approach presupposes a conflict outcome acceptable to all parties and sustainable, implying equality, parity, also in the process. A conflict what is not resolved/transformed A danger of violence to settle the conflict at once Conflict transformation emphatic-constructivepeaceful which can lead to Peace, which is the best approach to security presupposes superior strength implying inequality and superiority between the parties An Evil party with strong capability and evil intention A clear and present danger of violence real or potential Strengths to deter or defeat the evil party which lead to Security which is the best approach to peace Source: Galtung, Johan. (2007). Introduction: peace by peaceful conflict transformation the TRANSCEND approach in Charles Weber & Johan Galtung (editors). (2007). Handbook of Peace 5

6 and Conflict Studies. London: Routledge. 4. Conflict Analysis Conflict analysis seeks to answer questions of how the conflict begins, who are the parties to the conflict, what are the sources of the conflict, what are the effects of the conflict, what factors contributes to escalation of conflicts, what are the means to control and resolution of conflicts between two or more groups of people. Conflict analysis accepts that peace and development are interrelated, and conflict analysis is useful for creation of peaceful society and polity. Analysing conflict in order to understand the origins, type and effects of conflict is not the end in itself; conflict analysis is also the means to creating a strategy that can address the conflict, bring peace and reconstruction of the damaged inter-group relations and economy of the conflict region. Creation of knowledge base of past and ongoing conflicts is an important achievement of conflict analysis; knowledge gain through conflict analyses makes possible shared knowledge of conflict among all stake-holders of the conflict and its resolution. Conflict analysis is the purposeful study of the contexts, causes, actors or parties and evolving dynamics of conflict resulting in understanding of conflicts and providing necessary knowledge base for the resolution of conflicts. Conflict occurs in a context which shaped manifest conflict and is, in turn, influenced by the conflict. The context is the objective world of social and political institutions, political-economic inequality along the lines of identity and class, polarisations along ethnic or religious lines, and animosity between nations. In short the context constitutes social, political and economic factors of conflict. Therefore, context analysis is required to conflict analysis, but they are not the same; context analysis aim to understand the broader context within which conflict occurs. Venn diagram is a simplified representation of conflict dynamics occurring within the broad context of the larger political boundaries and political institutions and economic institutions, and social systems. 4.1 Basic Purposes of Conflict Analysis Conflict Analysis serves few basic purposes (a) study the sources and consequences of conflict; (b) enlist factors that Table 1Representation of Conflict dynamics within broader context can be used in developing strategies related to intervention to the conflict, and in welfare intervention by international, national and non-governmental agencies; (c) determine the strength of countries in the control of conflicts; (d) provide 6

7 sensitization of conflicts and its aspects, which may make actors gain awareness of actions that escalates conflict; (e) conflict analysis as a preparation for working with conflicting parties, and as a process of conflict resolution; (f) record the nature of conflict at the point of analysis, and regularly updates the record providing useful knowledge on the trends or phases of the conflict. 4.2 Key Elements of Conflict Analysis Conflict analysis can be subdivided into profile or context of conflict, factors or causes of the conflict, and actors in conflict all link together in a circle by dynamics of conflicts. These elements are used in various Conflict Analysis Models, some of which will be introduced here in this module. Profile: As we have discussed, Context or Profile of conflict is vital to understanding of the conflict. Structure itself may be the cause of conflict, and conflict due to structure is known as structural violence. Much of the conflict arises due to economic, political and sociocultural contexts of history of colonialism and violence, environmental degradation and loss of natural resources, forms of governance, unequal distribution of wealth and opportunities for self-realizations. And in the course of conflict, the broader context also underwent changes. Thus, conflict can be a challenge to the existing structure of the context itself with the conflict in Kashmir or insurgency in Northeast India as examples. Causes: The conflict under analysis may be due to Structural Causes such as power disparities, availability of resources and human needs (Jeong, 2008:15). When the disparity in distribution of resources continues over a period of time without any mitigation efforts, the feelings of deprivations, injustice, and frustration may result into mobilization actors along identities. Thus, Structural Causes become originating constituents of proximate causes of conflict. And the immediate outbreak of the conflict is best described by former UN General Secretary, U Thant was psychological and emotional frame of mind, which replaces rational thinking (Thant, 1966:2). In addition to structural and proximate causes triggering conflict, there are also factors which led to escalation or prolonging of the conflict; these factors are often unearthed through Conflict Analysis. Actors or Parties: Social collectives of diverse forms involved in the conflict are actors or parties to the conflict. There can also be a third party to the conflict who has interests on the 7 Table 2 Key elements of conflict

8 outcomes of the conflict. The alignment of USA with anti-government groups and Russia with the Government of Syria is one example of third party in conflict. Conflict Analysis is the process of classification of actors to the conflict and taking note of their interests, stated goals and positions, and their capacities. Conflict Analysis also involves identification of actors who agree to be part of conflict negotiation, and those who are opposed to peaceful settlement. Dynamics of Conflict: Refers to the trends of conflict, changing negotiation position of the parties reflecting mutation of interests of the parties, the intensity of the conflict, and evolution of window of opportunity for resolution of conflict. It also refers to the different types of communication between actors, scenarios and strategies to conflict resolution that can be developed from understanding of the former three components of conflict. 5. Tools of Conflict Analysis Conflict Layer Analysis is a Venn diagram analysis tool that sought discovery of stakeholders or parties, their contesting positions, interests and needs. Conflict Layer Analysis mainly focused on identifying parties and their relations to conflict, uncovering of interests that motivate the parties to conflict with one another, and understand inequality of power among the parties. Table 3: Need, Interest and Position of Stakeholder, Source- Floyer Acland, 1995:50 Conflict Layer Analysis used the notion of position to mean stated demand or public declaration of the parties. For example, Singur farm land must be return to all farmers. Interest of the party is the party s way of securing Needs. Needs are basic requirements for survival and achievement of full potential. When access to Needs are considered to be limited by other party contesting over access to the same Needs, issues of conflict arose which can 8

9 even be the issue of survival of one party. Different sources of power are: power due to control of resources, power due to position, power due to military support, etc. When power becomes the instrument of access to need, at the expense of other party s access, conflict between the parties occurs. Acland s model (1995) is a presentation of the same components in two intersecting triangles, with the possibility of extracting common interests and values in the area of intersection. Acland s model of conflict analysis prioritizes experiences of shared needs and fears which locates points of agreement between the parties. Conflict Tree Analysis is issue-related causal relationship analysis for understanding linkages between micro-level activities and macro-level forces of conflict (Jeong, 2008:20). In other words, conflict tree analysis seeks to illuminate the relationship between broader context and dynamics of conflict. The root of conflict tree represents structural factors. Structural causes are the basic reasons of manifest conflict, and may result in revival of conflicts time and again. The only remedy for conflict is creation of structure that meets conditions for realisation of human potential as discussed in Human Needs Approach. The trunk represents manifest issues of empirically ascertainable facts like displacement, migration or refugee camp which link structural factors to dynamic factors. The leaves represent dynamic factors such as forms of communications, and inter-party relationships. Conflict tree analysis is a handy tool to understand the links between the root causes of conflict, the issues involved in conflicts, and the daily dynamics of relations, communications and intensity of conflict. The method of Conflict tree Analysis involves drawing tree figure with visible root, trunk and leaves. Then handing out paper cards to people, and inviting them to place the card along the tree followed by initiating discussion among the people for diagnosis of Conflict tree: linking structural factors with dynamic factors the nature of relationships between key components of conflicts and issues. Thus social interaction among participants leading to agreement on the core issues of conflict, causes and effects of the conflict on each other are the fruitful results of Conflict tree analysis. Iceberg: A form of representational conflict analysis that subscribes to the wisdom of there is more than meets the eye. Iceberg analysis recognizes that every conflict has historical antecedents of grievances to the parties, contributing structural factors that subvert justice and harmony and invoke remembrance of historical grievances. Then factors that triggers parties 9

10 to openly conflict with visible immediate consequences of great turbulence. Conflict Timeline Analysis: A Conflict analysis used to trace roots of overt conflict through its evolution over time. This analysis prioritise exploration of history and the differing views of Iceberg: Identification of factors with manifest experience history that parties have, discussion and exchange of views of historical events, and identification of historical event of importance to the parties in conflict. Conflict timeline Analysis emphasised shared history, and the potentiality of shared history in de-escalating conflict and gradually rebuilding of peaceful coexistence. Actor Mapping Analysis or Stakeholder Mapping or Conflict Map: This analysis tool builds graphical representation of relationships between actors in conflict. Relationship of actors to the conflict, and relationship between the actors themselves are mapped and represented graphically. This analysis further has possibility of exchanging experiences of conflict between parties and disclosing the location of power. It may also help in discovery of the window for intervention and conflict resolution. The various components mapped includes geographical locations of conflict and conflicting parties, issues of conflict, needs and fears, and location of power. Conflict Indicators: Another aspect in conflict analysis is objective identification of what constitute conflicts, and identification of indicators that predicts if conflict is getting worse or gradually de-escalating. The objective study of conflict indicators is used for predicting the temporal aspects of conflict. Indicators are spread out into two categories of Structural Indicators Dynamics indicators. Among the structural indicators colonial history, inequality, structure of economy, history of recent violence, environmental damage and repression of minority groups by the majority are considered as structural accelerators of the conflict. The structural accelerators of the conflict have varying potentiality to prolonging conflict. Another set of structural indicators are seen as having the effect of de-escalation on conflict. These Structural Decelerators of conflict are economic growth, democratic institutions catering to aspirations of the people, and historical precedents of peace and harmonious coexistence. The Structural Decelerators of conflict also has long term effect on peace, and in 10

11 case of conflict outbreaks, the decelerators may gradually decrease the intensity of conflict leading to resolution. The Dynamic Accelerator of conflict such as war, coup and armed resistance results in huge devastation to life, quality of life and services within a short span of time. On the other hand, Dynamic Decelerators of conflict are aimed at immediately reducing of intensity conflict by ceasefire agreement between partisans to conflict, actions to limit the conflict capacities of parties like arms embargo. Improvement of the economy in the short run through public spending by the state can also be short time dynamic decelerator of conflict. Conflict Indicators - Potentiality of indicators to accelerate or decelerate the conflict in the long term or in the short term. 6. Levels of Violence and Phases of Conflict Occurrence of Conflict over time can be pictorially represented in a curve with vertical Y axis representing levels of violence, and horizontal X-axis representing different phases of conflict over time. In the Y-axis the increasing intensity and destructiveness of violence may be divided into two levels threshold of political crisis and threshold of humanitarian crisis. Once conflict breaks out, the levels of violence grows in intensity reaching a point where the political system is in crisis. If conflict continues with increasing intensity of violence, it reaches a point where the havoc on people produces widespread sufferings and loss of lives. This level of conflict corresponds to the stage threshold of humanitarian crisis beyond which intensity violence led insufferable loss of life, destruction of the polity and economy. 11

12 In conflict emergence phases on curve witnessed steep rise in curve corresponding to outbreak of violence. The conflict curve still becomes steeper successively crossing into political crisis and humanitarian crisis levels of violence corresponding. When the levels of violence had reached its zenith, the corresponding phase of conflict is conflict crisis phase with chaos and emergencies are everyday phenomena. When level of violence gradually subsides, the phase of conflict coincides with Conflict settlement phase. This phase is very crucial to the resolution of conflict. Conflict may be rekindled due to negotiation failure or disregard of the terms of negotiation. Successful resolution of conflict causes cessation of violence and beginning of post-conflict phase. 7. Methods, Sources of Information and Conflict Sensitivity Our understanding of the world about us is gained through use of five senses of seeing, hearing, touch, smell, and taste. We observe and interact with the environment; and the knowledge we gain from this observation is empirical knowledge. Similarly empirical knowledge of conflict is a necessity to understand dynamics of conflict, and contribute to resolution of conflicts. To this end, conflict analysis demands correct information and comprehensive. Some means of working on conflict analysis are a) Archival study involving review of literatures (news report, archives, NGO reports, existing analysis, academic writings, intervention reports) 12

13 b) Interviewing of Key persons such as leaders from opposing parties, civil society members, administrators, journalists and political leaders. All these key persons have interests in the conflict. c) Interviewing of general public. The general public can provide immense information on their perceptions, experiences d) Focus groups that skilfully brings together competing perspectives and positions, disagreements and debates in a group diverse persons. e) Workshop where participants analyses the problem, causes and issues of conflict. The choice of method for collection of information depends on variables of time, available resources, skill of analysis team and the required depth of conflict analysis. Conflict sensitivity must be adopted while collecting information and publication of the results of analysis. Ethical considerations must guide the effort to perform conflict analysis. The willingness of the people to freely discuss about conflict must be assessed carefully. More importantly their reasons for not forthcoming with information must be respected. None of the providers of information must believe that their safety is compromised by sharing of information. The formation of analysis team must take into account the possibility of biased perception by the actors or stakeholders. The safety of field researcher who collects information must also be taken into account. Lastly, conflict sensitivity calls for sensitivity of the outsiders to the conflict situation. For the presence of outsiders can be factors for escalation of conflicts. 13