Elections to Lok Sabha

Transcription

1 Elections to Lok Sabha A Statistical Analysis M Ramchandra Rao The statistical analysis of the 1962 elections to the Lok Sabha attempted here shows that though the Congress party has once again won a comfortable majority of the scats, it has secured fewer seats and polled a smaller proportion of total votes compared to polled, The Communist party has improved its position both in respect of seats won and per cent of votes " The Jan Sangh, while securing almost the same per cent of votes polled as in 1957, has won more seats this time. However, all the 14 candidates elected on the Jan Sangh ticket have polled less than 50 per cent of votes in their respective constituencies. The Swatantra party which was contesting the General Elections for the first time has done well in winning IB seats in the Lok Sabha. Moreover., 11, or over 60 per cent, of its successful candidates secured an absolute majority of the votes polled, a performance unmatched even try the Congress. THE world's biggest democracy went to the polls for the third time in February 1962 to elect representatives to the State Legislative Assemblies and to the Lok Sabha. The General Elections crea. ted interest not only in India but in other parts of the globe also. An attempt is made in this note to present the facts and figures immediately available. In the absence of any official compilation of the results, reliance had to be placed on newspaper reports, where minor errors and omissions are likely to creep in. However, they will be of a marginal nature and will not affect the conclusions in any significant way. Out. of the 491 elective seats in the Lok Sabha the results of 485 seals have been declared. The nine seats for which results are to be announced are, two from U P, where recounts have been demanded, two from Manipur, where polling has taken place only recently, four from Himachal Pradesh and one from Punjab where polling will be held only in April as the areas are snowbound. * The analysis presented in this paper is, therefore, based on 477 results, including 3 unopposed returns. The details of results for eight seats two each from Assam, Gujarat and one each from Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal were not available to the author from newspa peris. * The results of two seats from U P and two from Manipur have since been announced. Unexpected Defeats Surprises by way of unexpected defeats are not few. While the ruling party has been returned to power with a comfortable majority, many a stalwart of the opposition benches has failed to come back to the Parliament. This article, however, does not reason the 'whys' of successes or defeats of the parties, and only presents facts and figures. For the 171 contested seats, the position of the parties is as follows : The three uncontested returns, one each from U P Madras, and Punjab, have gone to Congress. II A comparative study reveals that the 1962 Elections have created record for the percent of votes polled, perhaps an indication of the growing political consciousness of the people. The all-india poll percentage has risen from 47.7 in 1957 to 51.9 in The increase is remarkably noticed in all the States (Table 1), except Orissa and West Bengal. The percentage of poll has declined to 24.7 compared to 36.1 in 1957 in Orissa. In West Bengal it was 45.8 in compared to 48.6 in The drop in poll percentage in Orissa may be partly attributed to the fact that poll has taken place only for Lok Sabha, as mid-term election having been held for the Assembly in Kerala has recorded the highest percentage of votes (70.6) and Orissa the lowest (24.7). In 1957 elections also, Orissa recorded the lowest percentage. The States and Union Territories can be ranked according to the percentage of votes polled in 1962 as follows : U P and Assam have recorded the same percentage of polled votes (5l.7). Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa have recorded less than 50 per cent of poll. Smaller Proportion of Invalid Votes The highest percentage of poll is recorded in Karad constituency of Maharashtra and the minimum in Bhanjanagar constituency in Orissa. The poll percentages in different constituencies within a State have shown considerable variation. The maximum and minimum percentages recorded in each State are given in Table 1. A novel feature of the 1962 Elections is the introduction of 'marking system' of voting. Perhaps adop.

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3 tion of this procedure was partly responsible for bringing down the percentage of invalid votes from 4.5 in 1957 to 4.1 in The percentage of invalid votes to the total polled votes varied from State to State as is seen from Table 1. The highest percentage of invalid votes is recorded in Bihar (6.4 per cent) and the lowest in Kerala (2.1 per cent). Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Oris, sa, Rajasthan and UP have recorded more than 4 per cent invalid votes. The Southern States have recorded comparatively low percent, ages of invalid votes. III The Congress party has won 72.4 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats with a minority vote of 43 per cent. Except in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Mysore, and Orissa, the Congress party has secured less than 50 per cent of the votes. The lowest percentage of votes are recorded in Kerala (33.6), Rajasthan and UP (36.4) and Madhya Pradesh (37.9). In U P, from where eminent Congressmen like Pandit Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri have been return, ed to Lok Sabha, the Congress secured only 36.4 per cent of the total polled votes. The party has secured the highest percentage of votes in Orissa, 52.6 per cent. get neither of the two seats. The State-wise position of percentage of seats won and votes polled by the Congress is given in Table 2. Votes Polled and Seats Won The Congress though it has secured only 49.4 per cent of votes has won all the seats in Delhi while in Tripura it has lost both the seats though it has got 44.9 per cent of the total polled votes. Kxcept in Kerala where the percentage of votes polled by the Congress is same as the percentage of seats won, in all States there is a large difference between the two percent, ages. In 9 States the party has won more than 50 per cent of the scats though it polled less than 50 per cent of votes. Taking the percentage of votes polled by the Congress party, the States and Union Territories can be ranked in descending order: Orissa, Gujarat, Mysore, Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal, Tripura, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Madras, Bihar, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, U P and Kera. la. The Communist party of India has secured 9.5 per cent of the total polled votes and won 29 seats (6.1 per cent) in the Parliament. It can be seen from Table 3 that the party has secured the highest percentage of votes in Tripura (47 per tent) and won 2 seats (100 per cent). The party has secured the next highest percentage of votes; in Kerala (34.8) and won 6 seats (33.3 per cent). In Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal the party has secured 20.3 per cent and 27.6 per cent of the total polled votes and won 7 (16.3 per cent) and 9 (25.7 per cent) seats respectively. The Swatantra party hag secured 7.6 per cent of the total votes polled and has won 18 seats (3.8 per cent). It has secured the highest percentage of votes in Gujarat (25 per cent) and lowest in Kerala 0.01 per cent. It can be seen from Table 3 that the party's performance in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madras is notable. The Praja Socialist party (PSP) has secured 6,5 per cent of the total votes polled and won 11 seats (2.3 per cent). The Jan n Sangh has secured 6.0 per cent of the votes and won 14 (2.9 per cent) seats. The Socialist party has secured 2.4 per rent of the votes and won 5 (1.1 per cent) seats. Other minor parties like Jharkand, DMK, Revolutionary Socialist party, etc, all together secured 10.3 per cent of the voles and won 32 (6.8 per cent) seats. The Independents have secured 10.9 per cent of the votes and secured 22 (4.6 per cent) seats. IV A comparison of the performance of the four major parties, viz, the Congress, Communists, PSP, Jan Sangh in the 1957 and 1962 elections is interesting. The number and percentage of seats won and the percentages of votes polled at the two elections are given in Table 4. The Congress and PS P have secured a smaller percentage of votes in 1962 than in The Congress Table 1 : Total Votes Polled in 1957 and 1962 The Congress has won more than 60 per cent of the seats in almost every State except Kerala where it got only 33.3 per cent of the seats, and Tripura where the party could 545

4 March 31, 1962 party which had secured 76.6 per cent of the seals with 47.8 per cent of votes in 1957, has won 72.4 per cent of seats with 43.0 per cent of votes polled in The P S P has suffered a setback in 1962 Elections. It has won 11 seats (2.3 per cent) in 1962 with 6.5 per cent of votes polled, whereas in 1957 it secured 19 seats with 10.4 per cent of votes polled. The Communist party has improved its position compared to It secured 27 seats (5.6 per tent) with 8.9 per cent of the votes polled in 1957 and 29 seats (6.1 per cent) with 9.5 per cent of the votes polled in The Jan Sangh which polled almost the same percentage of votes in 1957 and 1962, has shown spectacular improvement in the number of seats won. It has won 11 seats (2.9 per cent) in 1962 against only 4 seats (0.8 per cent) in 1957 with 5.9 per cent of votes polled. Fall in Congress Votes A State-wise breakdown and comparison of the performance of all the four parties between 1957 and 1962 indicate that the percentage of votes polled by Congress has declined in all the States except Bombay (Maharashtra and Gujarat) and Orissa. (See Table 3). The drop in poll percentage is significant in Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and U P. In Kerala, Madras, West Bengal and Bihar the drop in percentage is small. The Communists have improved their position in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, U P, West Bengal and Tripura. In Madhya Pradesh, Madras, Mysore, Orissa, they have maintain, ed their position. In Assam, Bombay, Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and Kerala the Communists have polled a smaller percentage of votes compared to The drop in poll percentage is significant in Punjab where it has polled only 3.2 per cent in 1962 compared to 16.8 per cent in In spite of reverses in some States, the party has improved its position at the all India level. THE ECONOMIC WEEKLY The Praja Socialist party has recorded a fall in percentage of votes polled in all States, except Kerala and Assam. In Kerala the party has polled 9.7 per cent of votes in 1962 compared to 7.2 per cent in In Assam the party has polled almost the same percentage of votes at both the elections. The Jan Sangh has maintained its 1957 position at the all India level. The party has suffered a loss in percentage of votes in Punjab and Rajasthan, maintained, its position in Mysore and improved it in all the other States. Though the party has suffered a fall in percentage of votes in Punjab and Rajasthan, it has, for the first time, won 3, seats (14.0 per cent) from Punjab and 1 (4.5 per cent) from Rajasthan. It has also made some inroads in South India for the first time and it has polled slightly higher percent, age of votes in all the Southern States except in Mysore where it has maintained its 1957 position. A study of the percentage of votes secured by elected candiates of the different parties in 1962 will be of some interest. An elected candidate need not secure an ahso-

5 lute majority or more than SO per cent of votes and there are many instances of candidates getting elected with much less than 50 per cent of the total voles polled. It can he seen from Table 6, that more than 60 per cent of the elected candidates have secured less than 50 per cent of votes in their constituencies, About 65 per cent of the candidates elected on Congress, and Communist party tickets.secured less than 50 per cent polled voles. Most of the P S P and all Jan Sangh and Socialist candidates elected got less than 50 per cent of the votes. The performance of the Swatantra party is commendable, as more than 60 per cent of the party's elected candidates secured more than 50 per cent of the votes in their constituencies. The credit of getting more than 75 per cent of the votes, however, goes to Congress. Two of its candidates, one from Dharuar South in Mysore and another from Raiganj in West Bengal secured 79.2 per cent and 90.9 per cent of the total polled votes, respectively. Conclusions Keeping the two limitations of the analysis presented in this note in mind, viz, (i) basic data for the analysis is collected from newspapers and (ii) the analysis is based on only 474 results, the results of the 1962 Elections to I-ok Sabha may be summarised as follows : The Congress party has once again got a comfortable majority, though it secured less percentage of seats and votes compared to The Communist party has improved its position both in respect ol percentage of seats won and percentage of votes polled. The Jan Sangh while securing almost the same percentage of votes compared to 1957, has won more seats. All the 14 candidates elected on this party's ticket have polled less than 50 per cent of votes in their constituencies. The Swatantra party which went to polls in a Genera) Election for the first time in 1962 has done well by getting 18 seats in Parliament, 11 of its elected candidates (61,1 per cent) securing more than 50 per cent votes in their constituencies.