PENINSULA MALAYSIA VOTER OPINION POLL
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1 PENINSULA MALAYSIA VOTER OPINION POLL Perspectives on Issues, the Economy, Leadership and Voting Intentions 14 th 21 st March 2008 Survey supported by Friedrich Naumann Stiftung
2 All rights reserved. This report is published by proprietary subscription. No parts of this publication may be distributed, reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying without the permission of the copyright owner, application for which should be addressed to the same. The distribution, reproduction, copying or transmission including the quotation of a part of the whole thereof by a non-customer is strictly prohibited FOR OPINION RESEARCH 901B Diamond Complex, Bangi, Selangor, MALAYSIA Tel: /1499 Fax: info@merdeka.org Web:
3 Contents FNS Peninsula Malaysia Post-Election Poll Introduction Methodology Respondent Profile Issues Approval Rating and Expectations on PM Perceptions on the Conduct of the Elections Expectations on Election Results Perceptions of Barisan Rakyat States Voting Motivations Outlook on Political Parties
4 Methodology FNS Peninsula Malaysia Post-Election Poll 1024 randomly selected registed voters aged 21+ were interviewed via telephone for the survey Respondents were selected via random stratified sampling method along the lines of parliamentary district of residence, ethnicity, gender and age. Survey was carried out between 14 th 21 st March 2008 Survey margin of error estimated at ±3.10%
5 Respondent Profile Ethnicity 60% 56% Region FNS Peninsula Malaysia Post-Election Poll Northern Central Eastern Southern 38% 40% 3 19% 20% 10% Age 0% Malay Chinese Indian and above 7% 19% 7% Gender Male Female 2 Setting Urban 19% Rural 49% 8% 8% 1 49% 51% 11% %
6 Respondent Profile Total of household income < RM 1500 per month RM RM 3000 per month RM RM 5000 per month > RM 5000 per month Don't know No response 1% 6% States 20% 1 16% % 10% 8% 8% 8% 7% 4 1% 0% Perlis Kedah P.Pinang Perak Selangor K.Lumpur Kelantan Terengganu Pahang N.Sembilan Melaka Johor Religion 60% 57% 50% 30% Level of education No formal education Primary school Secondary school Diploma/ Polytechnics/ Teacher s College/ Vocational Institutes Degree 5 40% 30% 2 20% 9% 10% 0% None Islam Buddhism Hinduism Christian Taoist Other Occupation 40% 10% 30% 30% 2 8% 20% 10% 9% 1 16% 2 0% Employed Private Employed Govt Own business Self employed Unemployed Student Homemaker Retired
7 Survey Results Overview
8 Q6. What in your view, is the most important problem in the country today? Price hike and inflation 38% Unfavorable economic condition 7% Crime and public safety 11% Kidnapping of children Moral decline in general Social problems among youth Uneven development across states 1% Ethnic affair & inequality 10% Corruption Quality of national leaders Instability in politics & parties Others None Don't know
9 Q6. What in your view, is the most important problem in the country today? Price hike and inflation Unfavorable economic condition Crime and public safety Kidnapping of children Uneven development across states Moral decline in general Ethnic affair & inequality Social problems among youth Corruption Quality of national leaders None Instability in politics & parties Don't know Others No response Indian 2 1 8% 3 Chinese 38% 17% 1% 1 9% Malay 41% 6% 7% 8% 1%
10 Q6 x Q7crosstab: Issues vs Satisfaction with Govt. Resolution of the Issue Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know No response Price hike and inflation 17% 5 20% Crime and public safety 17% 58% 18% Ethnic affair & inequality 19% 47% 27% Unfavorable economic condition 9% 3 36% 19% Corruption 8% 48% 38%
11 Approval Rating and Expectations on PM
12 Q8. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is performing his job as the prime minister? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know No response % 41%
13 Q8. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is performing his job as the prime minister? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know No response Indian 7% 46% 2 17% 6% Chinese 4 36% 6% 8% Malay 19% 39% 2 1
14 Q9.What are the 2 most important items you want to see PM do after election? ITEM 1 2 ITEM 1 2 Fair treatment to all races 10% 8% None 1 Fight corruption, cronyism & nepotism Others Eradicate poverty & provide job opportunities Don't know 2 Fulfill it responsibility as PM & coherent in administration No response 1% Listen to the public Strengthen public safety & reduce crime 6% 8% Control & reduce prices 2 1 Stabilize/develop the economy 9% Change in government administration & leadership 1 Fulfill promises made during election Resign as PM Focus on Malay issues Pay attention to education issues Maintain unity among races 1% Apply Islam in administration 1% Pay attention to national education system Efficiency & transparency in gov administration & leadership Economic development & stability Preserve Islamic & Malay rights Maintain racial harmony Infrastructure & public amenities Fulfill promises/serve the needy 1%
15 Q10.In your view, should Abdullah Badawi continue to be prime minister after the 12th General Election? Yes Maybe Yes Maybe No No Don't know No response 1% 7% 1 7% 49% 2
16 Q10.In your view, should Abdullah Badawi continue to be prime minister after the 12th General Election? Yes Maybe Yes Maybe No No Don't know No response Indian 30% 29% 10% 19% 11% Chinese 31% 3 11% 9% 1 Malay 6 1 1
17 Q11.In your view, would Najib Tun Razak make a good prime minister? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know No rensponse 1% 21% % 19%
18 Q11.In your view, would Najib Tun Razak make a good prime minister? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know No rensponse Indian 10% 2 19% 2 2 Chinese 26% 29% 9% 3 Malay 2 36% 1 1 1
19 Sources of Information
20 Q12. How have you been getting most of your news/information on the recent elections? Please name three(3): Source Newspapers 55.0% 26.8% 1.9% 83.7 TV 36.7% 50.7% 3.0% 90.4 Internet/political party websites/blogs/ s 3.8% 2.7% Leaflet 0.9% Speeches at ceramah or rallies % 10.4 Face to face interact with candidate 0.1% % 2.3 Face to face interact with party workers Events other than mentioned above 0.1% Speeches at mosque/religious sites Telephone/SMS/MMS % 3.1% 4.3 Discussion/information from family, friends & people around 6.9% 6.9 Radio 2.9% 2.9 Other % 4.2 None % No response 0.1% 0.
21 Q13.If internet is involved, please name 3 portals you frequented for news on the recent election: Source Blogs Malaysia Today Malaysiakini Youtube Utusan Malaysia Harakah daily Berita Harian Google Yahoo The Star Other online versions of mainstream newspapers % % % % SPR 0.7% Others 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% Internet not a source of election news 87.0% 93.8% 97.6% No response
22 Q14isummary.To what extent do you trust the coverage on elections by the media? Very trustworthy Somewhat trustworthy Somewhat untrustworthy Not trustworthy at all Do not read newspaper medium for election news Don't know 100% 90% 80% 10% 8% 7% 70% 60% 50% 3 29% 76% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4 39% 6% 8% 11% 7% Newspaper TV Internet
23 Q14iisummary.And how do you rate the slant of these media? Strongly pro-bn Somewhat pro-bn Balanced coverage on both Somewhat pro-opposition Strongly pro-opposition Do not read newspaper for election news Don't know No response medium 100% 90% 80% 70% 8% 10% 17% 2 60% 50% 40% 30% 3 76% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30% 37% 9% Newspaper TV Internet
24 Perceptions on the Conduct of the Elections
25 Q15.Do you think the political parties were able to campaign freely in the recent elections? Yes Maybe Yes Maybe No No Don't know 6% 18% 7% 57% 1
26 Q15.Do you think the political parties were able to campaign freely in the recent elections? Yes Maybe Yes Maybe No No Don't know Indian 4 1 6% 3 Chinese 49% 2 9% 1 6% Malay 6 6% 19% 6%
27 Q16.Did you know of any irregularities/doubtful/illegal conduct during the recent elections? Yes No Don't know 7% 36% 57%
28 Q16.Did you know of any irregularities/doubtful/illegal conduct during the recent elections? Yes No Don't know Indian 46% 51% Chinese 39% 48% 1 Malay 3 6
29 Q17.How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the conduct of the Elections Commission during the campaigning period and Election Day? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know No response 1% 1 27% 50%
30 Q17.How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the conduct of SPR during the campaigning period and Election Day? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know No response Indian 28% 46% 17% Chinese 69% 17% Malay 40% 39% 11% 7%
31 Expectations and Perceptions on the Election Results
32 Q18.Did you vote in the March 8th elections? Yes No 7% 9
33 Q18.Did you vote in the March 8th elections? Yes No Indian 97% Chinese 91% 9% Malay 9 6%
34 Q19.Did you expect the election results to turn out to be like this? Yes No Don't know 1% 36% 7
35 Q19.Did you expect the election results to turn out to be like this? Yes No Don't know No response Indian 58% 41% 1% Chinese 2 7 Malay 2 7 1%
36 Q20.Looking at the election results, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice you made when voting last Saturday? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know No response 6% 7% 41% 40%
37 Q20.Looking at the election results, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice you made when voting last Saturday? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know No response Indian 48% 4 Chinese 29% 56% 9% Malay 48% 31% 7% 6% 6%
38 Confidence in BR States
39 Q21.What are the 2 most important items you want to see in the new opposition controlled states? Items Fulfill the promises made Control & reduce prices Strengthen public safety & reduce crime Fair & equal treatment to all races Peace & stability Fight corruption Bring development & economic growth Good, fair, responsible governance Take care of Malay interest Listen to the public & take care of people's interest Maintain unity among races Bring change to administration Do better then previous government Apply Islam in administration Remain status quo Eradicate poverty & provide job opportunities Pay attention to education issues Others 1 16% 6% 1 8% 10% 6% 1% 1% 2 6% 7% 6% 1%
40 Q23summary.How confident or not confident are you with your state government in Very confident Somewhat confident Somewhat not confident Not confident at all Don't know 100% 90% 80% 70% 11% 1 7% 1 17% 10% 9% 19% 11% 9% 18% 60% 2 50% 40% 30% 4 36% 4 41% 20% 10% 0% 2 Bringing economic developments 1 18% 21% Reducing corruption in state government Listen to the people Treats all races fairly
41 Q24summary.How confident or not confident are you that the rights of the Malays will be protected in.. Very confident Somewhat confident Somewhat not confident Not confident at all Don't know No response 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 16% 21% 18% 1 7% 6% 8% 17% 1 17% 27% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 40% 39% 4 18% 1 20% Perak under PAS rule Selangor under PArti Keadilan Rakyat rule Kedah under PAS rule 19% 27% 10% Penang under DAP rule
42 Voting Motivations
43 Q27. Which party did you vote for in the recent elections? BN 27% DAP PAS Opposition Others PKR 1% Did not vote Don't know No response 49%
44 Q27. Which party did you vote for in the recent elections? BN DAP PKR PAS Opposition Others Did not vote Don't know No response Malay 37% 7% 4 Chinese 1 10% 1% 7% 57% Indian 1 1 6% 1% 5
45 Q27Q28crosstab: Party Chosen vs Reasons for Voting Party members/loyal & confident to the party Continuous development The candidate factor Vote for change Preserve Islamic & Malay rights Fair treatment across race & religion Dissatisfied with party's performance Not free during polling day Problem with registration Civil servants Able to fulfill people aspiration Stability/Economic stability Influenced by family & friends Others Refuse to answer Q27 Others 11% 28% 6% 6% 6% 17% 6% 2 Did not vote 1 2 9% 5 Opposition 1 36% 17% 6% 6% 8% 8% PAS 36% 1 38% 1 PKR 20% % 7% 7% DAP 2 29% 18% 1 8% BN 6
46 Q29. How do you want the federal government to treat these new opposition controlled states? Punish them Coorperate with them Don't know No response 88%
47 Q29. How do you want the federal government to treat these new opposition controlled states? Punish them Coorperate with them Don't know No response Malay 7% 86% 6% Chinese 91% Indian 1% 9
48 Q30. Some said that Malays who voted DAP were traitors. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the statement? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know No response 7% 1 9% 41% 26%
49 Q30. Some said that Malays who voted DAP were traitors. How strongly do you agree or not agree with the statement? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know No response Malay % 3 9% Chinese 47% 38% Indian 11% 8
50 Q31. Barisan Nasional has lost many seats in the recent general elections, what do you think was the main factor that caused them to lose? People were dissatisfied with BN-led government 46% Internal problems within UMNO 1 Weak leadership of the prime minister 10% Conflict among BN component parties 9% A strong opposition The Anwar factor Arrangement of candidates 1% Others Don't know No response
51 Q31. Barisan Nasional has lost many seats in the recent general elections, what do you think is the main factor that caused them to lose? Internal problems within UMNO Conflict among BN component parties The Anwar factor Arrangement of candidates Others No response Weak leadership of the prime minister A strong opposition People were dissatisfied with BN-led government Current economic depression Don't know Indian % 5 Chinese 1 6% 58% 1% 6% Malay 18% 1 9% 38%
52 Outlook on Political Parties
53 Q33. How strongly do you agree or disagree for BN component parties, such as UMNO, MCA, MIC etc. to become a party in the future? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know No rensponse 7% 11% 3 1 3
54 Q33. How strongly do you agree or disagree for BN component parties, such as UMNO, MCA, MIC etc. to become a party in the future? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know No rensponse Malay 38% 30% 10% 1 6% Chinese 20% 4 16% 7% 9% 7% Indian 48% 27% 8% 1 1%
55 Q34.What do you want to see from BN after the March 8th elections? Tightening their control on the media and opposition movement Loosen the control on media and opposition movement Don't know No response 6% 7 1
56 Q34.What do you want to see from BN after the March 8th elections? Tightening their control on the media and opposition movement Loosen the control on media and opposition movement Don't know No response Malay 19% 68% 8% Chinese 87% 7% Indian 26% 7
57 Q35. What do you think of the current position of the opposition in the parliament? There is room for improvement It is enough The opposition is too strong Don't know No response 18% 9% 38% 31%
58 Q35. What do you think of the current position of the opposition in the parliament? There is room for improvement It is enough The opposition is too strong Don't know No response Malay 18% 4 27% 10% Chinese 47% 3 7% 7% Indian 51% 29% 11% 8%
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