Regionalism in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Robert Scollay PECC Trade Forum and University of Auckland

Transcription

1 Regionalism in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific Robert Scollay PECC Trade Forum and University of Auckland

2 East Asia and Asia-Pacific Regionalism East Asian Regionalism Regionalism within and between Northeast Asia Japan, Korea, China, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong 21% of world GNP Southeast Asia ASEAN 2% of world GNP

3 East Asia and Asia-Pacific Regionalism Asia-Pacific Regionalism Integration through trade and investment of Pacific Rim East Asia (23% of world GNP) North America (36% of world GNP) Australasia (1.5% of world GNP) Pacific South America (0.5% of world GNP) Asia-Pacific region accounts for 61% of world GNP North America and Northeast Asia the economic core of the Asia-Pacific region 3 major North American + 3 major Northeast Asian economies account for 55% of world GNP and 90% of Asia-Pacific GNP

4 Early Developments (to 1994): East Asian Regionalism (1) Pre World War II Academic concepts Akamatsu s flying geese theory (1964) Vision of complementary economic development Divergent approaches within East Asia ASEAN Initially a political grouping (formed in 1967) Failed efforts at economic integration (ASEAN Industrial Projects, ASEAN Industrial Complementation, Preferential Trading Arrangement) ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) 1992 Response to APEC, China s magnetism for FDI Japan, Korea Avoidance of preferential trade arrangements Committed to multilateralism ( friends of Article I ) China Closed until 1978, then preoccupied with transition to market economy

5 Early Developments East Asian Regionalism (2): AFTA initially (1992) involved ASEAN-6 extended to include CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) as they joined ASEAN divides products into inclusion and exclusion lists exclusion lists progressively whittled down some outstanding problems e.g. autos for Malaysia most products eventually transferred to inclusion lists (some special provisions for sensitive products) timetable accelerated several times in 1990s Longer timetables allowed for CLMV countries target changed from 0-5% to zero tariffs AICO introduced to facilitate expansion of production networks recent moves to accelerate progress on services, investment, nontariff barriers motivated by desire to claim leadership in East Asian integration processes

6 Early Developments (to 1994): Asia-Pacific Regionalism Market-driven rationale for economic integration Intense trade and investment linkages across the region Series of initiatives aimed at building on market-led integration 1960s: academic proposals for Pacific FTA originally from Japan (Kojima) 1967, 1968: formation of PAFTAD (academic), PBEC (business) Strong intellectual/political leadership from Japan (Okita), Australia (Crawford) 1980: PECC (tripartite: business, academia, government) 1989: APEC Originally 12 members Early 1990s: arrangement to include China, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong as individual members Mid-1990s: widened to include Pacific South America,Russia, Vietnam and PNG, (now 21 members)

7 First Watershed in 1994 International context Concerns about spread of preferential trade Conclusion of Uruguay Round Regional context Asia-Pacific regionalism (APEC) v. East Asian Regionalism (East Asian Economic Grouping proposed by Malaysia) Outcome APEC s Bogor Declaration Commitment to free trade and investment by 2010 (developed economies) and 2020 (developing economies) Based on open regionalism (non-discriminatory: differing views) concerted unilateralism adopted as modality in 1995/1996 Apparently decisive EAEG failed to draw support from Northeast Asia No new PTAs proposed in East Asia until 1998, only Canada-Chile and Mexico- Chile among APEC members in the Americas

8 Re-emergence of East Asian Regionalism reaction to East Asian crisis need seen for greater East Asian economic independence initial focus on monetary cooperation, then trade ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, Korea and ASEAN-10) solidified sense of East Asian identity market-based rationale increasingly prominent rapid-growth of intra-east Asian trade production networks growing inter-dependence willingness of NE Asia to engage in preferential trade a crucial factor Japan-Korea FTA first proposed 1998, though not yet concluded ASEAN Plus Three followed by rival ASEAN-China and ASEAN-Japan free trade proposals Japan and Korea both concluded bilateral FTAs with other partners and are pursuing more China now also pursuing bilateral FTAs

9 Strong economic rationale for both regionalisms breakdown of intra-asia-pacific exports Intra-western Pacific 40% Intra-NorthAmerica 30% Trans-Pacific 30% rapid expansion of intra-east Asian trade trans-pacific inter-dependence remains strong trade with East Asia remains a vital US interest US market remains vital for East Asia growing financial inter-dependence N. America and NE Asia dominate Asia-Pacific trade flows

10 Parallel Developments on Early 2000 s Proliferation of bilateral FTAs in both East Asia and Asia-Pacific Region-wide Initiatives East Asia: alternative frameworks ASEAN Plus Three ASEAN Plus One : ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan, then ASEAN-US, ASEAN-Korea, ASEAN-India, ASEAN-CER (Australia, NZ) ASEAN seeking central role Americas FTAA Asia-Pacific APEC s mid-term stock-take 2005 APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) proposal for Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) i.e. converting APEC into an FTA

11 Context: Obstacles to Trade Agenda (1) APEC attempt at open regionalism based on non-discrimination frustrated by key economies insistence on reciprocity WTO or RTAs as practical alternatives need to rely on four vehicles for achieving objectives APEC collective actions individual actions (unilateral) WTO FTAs APEC increasingly focused on trade facilitation while relying on WTO and FTAs as vehicles for liberalisation apparent that existing vehicles are insufficient to meet 2010 targets motivation for ABAC s FTAAP proposal

12 Context: Obstacles to Trade Agenda (2) East Asia proposal for an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA China Japan relationship impeding progress ASEAN Plus One initiatives (China-ASEAN, Japan-ASEAN, later US-ASEAN, CER-ASEAN, India-ASEAN) reflect China-Japan rivalry ASEAN effort to fill the vacuum and assert leadership ASEAN s difficulty in providing cohesive leadership remains problematic ASEAN Plus initiatives have tended to break down into bilateral FTA negotiations

13 Obstacles to Trade Agenda (3) WTO Uruguay Round success came with greatly increased complexity wider coverage (services, agriculture, IP) single undertaking strengthened dispute settlement rapid expansion of membership Difficulty reaching consensus on new round Seattle fiasco DDA launched with difficulty failure at Cancun narrowing agenda lowering of ambitions

14 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs Interpretation (1) reaction to difficulties in all three liberalisation processes failure of APEC s EVSL (Early Voluntary Sector Liberalisation) initiative 1998 failure of WTO s Seattle ministerial 1999 tendency of ASEAN-Plus initiatives to break down into bilateral initiatives inability of ASEAN to establish and maintain a common position Differing interests and degrees of readiness (e.g. CLMV countries) effect of China-Japan rivalry

15 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs Assessment (1) Proliferation is accelerating 16 PTAs concluded since 2000, many more on the way Diverse regional linkages Trans-Pacific (5) Intra-E. Asia (6) SE Asia-Australasia (4) Intra-American (1) i.e. not reflecting any single concept of regionalism Absence of FTAs covering key regional trade flows NE Asia N. America (except Japan-Mexico) Intra-NE Asia Avoidance of trade flows involving sensitive sectors Emerging tendency toward hub and spoke patterns Based on US, Japan, China, some secondary hubs obvious disadvantages for typical spoke

16 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs Interpretation (2) strategy of smaller APEC economies to pursue liberalisation while circumventing sensitivities of larger economies FTAs between pairs of smaller economies FTAs between larger economies and smaller economies that are acceptable to the larger economy due to absence of highly sensitive sectors in bilateral trade absence of political conflicts or difficulties importance of domino effect

17 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs Assessment (2) Wide variations evident Trade in Goods Product coverage From 100% coverage (e..g Singapore FTAs with Australia and New Zealand to substantial exclusions e.g. Japan-Singapore Treatment of Sensitive Sectors Extended transition periods and/or special safeguards in some cases (e.g. Thailand FTAs with Australia and New Zealand) Complete exclusion in some FTAs involving larger countries (e.g. US-Australia FTA, Japan- Malaysia FTA) Limited but important breakthroughs in some cases (e.g. Korea-Chile FTA, Japan-Mexico FTA) Transitional Period full liberalisation immediately in some cases (e.g. Singapore s agreements with Australia and New Zealand) some conclude within 10 years or even before 2010 kthers extend for 18 years even between developed economies (US-Australia) or 20 years (Australia-Thailand) Rules of Origin Different models (NAFTA style, ASEAN-style etc) Varying degrees of emphasis to CCH, area content and specific process rules Trade remedies Anti-dumping eliminated in a few agreements but specifically not covered in others Special safeguards an inceasingly popular way to deal with sensitive sectoes

18 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs Assessment (3) Wide variations (cont) Services included in some but not all bilateral FTAs different models ( GATS-based v. NAFTA-based ) degree of actual liberalisation varies from substantial to very limited Other issues Big differences over inclusion/exclusion and treatment of issues such as Investment Competition policy Trade facilitation (customs,standards etc) Intellectual Property Environmental and labour issues Dispute settlemt procedures also vary

19 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs Assessment (4) Attractions of bilateral PTAs as liberalising instruments can be WTO-consistent lead to eventual elimination of barriers on substantially all trade can incorporate trade facilitation and other WTO-Plus provisions for individual economies some sensitive sectors can be excluded partners can be selected customisation is possible

20 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs Assessment (5) Risks of proliferating bilateral FTAs Discrimination: trade and investment diversion complex patterns of discrimination and exclusion Disadvantages of hub and spoke patterns customisation may lead to important inconsistencies in rules of origin and other provisions spaghetti bowl and higher business costs potential undermining of existing integration achievements temptation to prefer preferential to multilateral liberalisation marginalisation of economies excluded because of political difficulties with potential partners small economic size (unattractive market) development status

21 PRESENT Dominican Republic Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan Bangladesh Laos Malaysia Myanmar Cambodia Viet Nam Thailand Indonesia Brunei Darussalam Philippines Russia USA Costa Rica Nicaragua El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Panama Paraguay Brazil Argentina India Sri Lanka New Zealand Singapore Chile Uruguay Mexico Japan People s Rep. of China Peru Hong Kong, China Chinese Taipei Australia Korea Canada Colombia Venezuela Bolivia Ecuador Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu Papua New Guinea Bahamas Haiti ASIA Fed. States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Palau, W. Samoa,Tonga, Vanuatu, E. Timor, Cook Islands, Nauru, Niue, Tuvalu Dominica, Suriname, Jamaica, St. Lucia, Belize, St. Kitts & Nevis, Grenada, Barbados, Guyana, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Antigua & Barbuda, Trinidad & Tobago AMERICAS Source: Integration and Regional Programs Department, Inter-American Development Bank

22 UNDER NEGOTIATION Dominican Republic Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan Bangladesh Laos Malaysia Myanmar Cambodia Viet Nam Thailand Indonesia Brunei Darussalam Philippines Russia USA Costa Rica Nicaragua El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Panama Paraguay Brazil Argentina India Sri Lanka New Zealand Singapore Chile Uruguay Mexico Japan People s Rep. of China Peru Hong Kong, China Chinese Taipei Australia Korea Canada Colombia Venezuela Bolivia Ecuador Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu Papua New Guinea Bahamas Haiti ASIA Fed. States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Palau, W. Samoa,Tonga, Vanuatu, E. Timor, Cook Islands, Nauru, Niue, Tuvalu AMERICAS Dominica, Suriname, Jamaica, St. Lucia, Belize, St. Kitts & Nevis, Grenada, Barbados, Guyana, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Antigua & Barbuda, Trinidad & Tobago Source: Integration and Regional Programs Department, Inter-American Development Bank

23 FUTURE PROSPECTS Dominican Republic Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan Bangladesh Laos Malaysia Myanmar Cambodia Viet Nam Thailand Indonesia Brunei Darussalam Philippines Russia USA Costa Rica Nicaragua El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Panama Paraguay Brazil Argentina India Sri Lanka New Zealand Singapore Chile Uruguay Mexico Japan People s Rep. of China Peru Hong Kong, China Chinese Taipei Australia Korea Canada Colombia Venezuela Bolivia Ecuador Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu Papua New Guinea Bahamas Haiti ASIA Fed. States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Palau, W. Samoa,Tonga, Vanuatu, E. Timor, Cook Islands, Nauru, Niue, Tuvalu AMERICAS Dominica, Suriname, Jamaica, St. Lucia, Belize, St. Kitts & Nevis, Grenada, Barbados, Guyana, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Antigua & Barbuda, Trinidad & Tobago Source: Integration and Regional Programs Department, Inter-American Development Bank

24 Proliferation of Bilateral FTAs: Relationship to Regional Processes ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan and ASEAN-CER negotiations proceeding in parallel with negotiation/conclusion of bilateral FTAs with individual ASEAN countries relationship between regional and bilateral processes appears unclear ASEAN seeking to advance its own integration in order to promote its own leadership role but bilateral negotiations of individual ASEAN members are proceeding faster (cf parallels in the Americas: parallel pursuit of FTAA, US-Central America, US-Andean group)

25 Responses to Proliferation of Asia-Pacific PTAs (1) Identify best practice aim to minimise negative effects, maximise positive effects PECC Common Understanding 2003 APEC Best Practice for RTAs/FTAs in APEC Aim at common provisions where possible Interest within APEC in development of model provisions ASEAN effort to establish ASEAN rules of origin as basis for rules of origin in ASEAN-Plus initiatives not easy

26 Responses to Proliferation of Asia-Pacific PTAs (2) Explore plurilateralisation of bilateral initatives Not easy Individual ASEAN economies negotiate separately with non- ASEAN partners Australia and New Zealand negotiate separately with new partners despite close integration through CER Singapore-Chile-New Zealand FTA just concluded a rare example of trilateralisation Open accession Also not easy Negotiations were not easy Brunei joined Singapore-Chile-New Zealand FTA at conclusions of negotiations rare case so far

27 Responses to Proliferation of Asia-Pacific PTAs (3) Identify and promote larger and more economically beneficial PTA configurations ASEAN Plus Three in East Asia FTAAP in Asia-Pacific region (but obstacles to both are obvious and well-known) Question: is the objective East Asian integration or Asia-Pacific integration?

28 Region-wide Approaches: Advantages (1) simplify the spaghetti bowl welfare effects Gains for members, losses for non-members East Asian FTA > ASEAN + 1 or Bilaterals FTAAP > East Asian FTA FTAAP > APEC MFN WTO > FTAAP

29 Welfare Effects of Alternative Trade Liberalisation Scenarios: Three Major Northeast Asian Economies (Equivalent Variation: US$million) China Japan Korea ASEAN-China ASEAN-Japan ASEAN Plus 3 FTA FTAAP APEC MFN Global MFN

30 Welfare Effects of Alternative Trade Liberalisation Scenarios: Southeast Asia, APEC Non-East Asia, and Non-APEC (Equivalent Variation: US$million) Southeast Asia-6 APEC Non-East Asia Non-APEC ASEAN-China ASEAN-Japan ASEAN Plus 3 FTA FTAAP APEC MFN Global MFN

31 Region-wide Approaches Advantages (2) East Asian trade bloc a logical objective for East Asian regionalism interdependence with US remains to be addressed APEC-wide integration also a logical objective potential for better economic outcome than East Asian bloc integration via APEC likely to be incomplete FTAAP a basis for more complete integration (free trade)

32 Region-wide Approaches Qualifications to Apparent Advantages In East Asia, ASEAN Plus 3 FTA produces best economic outcome for members, worst economic outcome for other Asia-Pacific economies Move to FTAAP turns losses to gains for other APEC members and yields greater gains overall But not all ASEAN Plus Three economies gain more from FTAAP In Asia-Pacific, FTAAP produces best economic outcome for Asia-Pacific economies, worst for rest of world Move to global liberalisation benefits most groups and yields greatest gains overall Basis for pressurising rest of the world to allow faster progress in WTO? But not all APEC members gain more from global liberalisation Implications of potential three bloc world need to be addressed

33 Region-wide Approaches Difficulties Practical structuring of negotiations design problems for any eventual agreement multi-tier approaches may offer potential solutions but are problematic Political economic, geopolitics and security issues all inter-linked US-E Asia US-NE Asia relations an obstacle to Asia-Pacific integration US-E Asia relations an unresolved dilemma for East Asian integration China-Japan Problematic for both East Asian and Asia-Pacific integration Taiwan

34 Concluding Remarks (1) Larger Asia-Pacific economies hold the key as region s major markets they are the magnets for PTA activity (the hubs ) political factors closely tied to their strategic and foreign policy objectives hold the key to feasibility of wider integration China v Japan in East Asia China and Japan v US in Asia-Pacific trade flows between them are largest in Asia-Pacific regions but so far untouched by the new wave of PTAs Are they serious about liberalising these trade flows? requirement for reciprocity a key factor decisive actors in WTO

35 Concluding Remarks (2) Steps Toward Progress? Three key meetings in late 2005 may be decisive APEC Leaders Meeting (Busan, November) East Asian Summit (Kuala Lumpur, December) WTO Ministerial (Hong Kong, December)