Writing a Field Plan. April 23rd, 2008
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- Quentin Morrison
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1 Writing a Field Plan Listen live on: April 23rd, 2008 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com AIM: DFA Night School Paid for by Democracy for America, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate s committee.
2 Welcome Back to Night School! What s New? Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio: New Look: Click here to listen: New DFA website coming soon! 2 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
3 Tonight s Trainers Arshad Hasan DFA Executive Director Night School Host Matt Blizek DFA Training Director Night School Host Helen Strain Field Organizer for over 20 years 3 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
4 Field Planning in 2 Parts This session: 1. Setting Your Vote Goals - Win Number - Vote Goal 2. Targeting Strategies - Geographic - Voting History - Demographic Next Month: 3. Voter Contact Tactics - Canvass - Phones - Mail - Etc 4. Timelines 5. Benchmarks RSVP for Part 2 of this series: 4 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
5 Your Blueprint for Victory Contains your campaign s Goals and the Strategies, Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve them Person to person voter contact Delivers a campaign s message to targeted voters Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, mail literature drops, etc. Builds a grassroots volunteer base A strong Field Organization can help you gain between 3-5% on election day. 5 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
6 What s Your Win Number? Step 1: Project the turnout: Projected Turnout = % Turnout in last similar election(s) x Current number of registered voters Step 2: Set Your Goals Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x.52 Step 3: Write them down! 6 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
7 Targeting Your Resources Why target? Limited People, Money & Time Gets the right message to the right voters 3 Ways to Target Voters Geographically Voter History & Identification Constituencies Research Suggestions Secretary of State County Elections Board Party Voter File NCEC US Census data 7 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
8 Calculate Your Vote Goals Region # 1 Current Registration: Turnout %: 31% 08 Projected Turnout Win Number Vote Goal (52%) Region # 2 Current Registration: Turnout %: 55% 08 Projected Turnout Win Number Vote Goal (52%) Region # 3 Current Registration: Turnout %: 52% 08 Projected Turnout Win Number Vote Goal (52%) District Total Current Registration: Turnout %: 46.3% 08 Projected Turnout Win Number Vote Goal (52%) Formula Key Projected Turnout = Current Registration x 04 Turnout % Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x.52 8 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
9 We need at least 1146 votes to win Region # 1 Current Registration: Turnout: 31% 08 Projected Turnout 503 Win Number 253 Vote Goal (52%) 262 District Total Current Registration: Turnout: 46.3% 08 Projected Turnout 2371 Win Number 1187 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Region # 2 Current Registration: Turnout: 55% 08 Projected Turnout 882 Win Number 442 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Region # 3 Current Registration: Turnout: 52% 08 Projected Turnout 986 Win Number 494 Vote Goal (52%) Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
10 Democratic Performance Index Percentage of the vote an average Dem can expect in an average election Based on voting history NOT voter registration How to calculate D.P.I { Democratic % in similar election # 1 } + Democratic % in similar election # 2 + Democratic % in similar election # 3 / 3 = D.P.I. About NCEC 10 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
11 Find the Democrats! Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout: 503 Dem Performance Index: 69% Projected Dem Turnout Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote difference Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Projected Dem Turnout Vote Goal (52%) 513 Vote difference District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference Formula Key Projected Dem Turnout = Turnout Projection x D.P.I. Vote Difference = Projected Dem Turnout Vote Goal 11 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
12 Not enough Democrats to win Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout: 503 Dem Performance Index: 69% Projected Dem Turnout 347 Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote difference 85 Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout 273 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference -185 District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout 1094 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference -139 Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Projected Dem Turnout 473 Vote Goal (52%) 513 Vote difference Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
13 How many persuadable voters are out there? Method # 1: Look for the blowouts to determine the Base Vote AKA Yellow Dog Democrats 100% - Democrat Base % - Republican Base % Persuasion Index Method # 2: Compare campaigns with the same constituents Candidate % of vote in District Dem Governor 57% Dem State Senate 46% 57% - 46% = 11% of the voters are persuadable 13 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
14 Find the Persuadable Voters Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout : 503 Persuasion Index: 18% Projected Persuadable Voters Persuasion Share District Totals 08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Persuadable Voters Persuasion Share Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout : 986 Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Persuadable Voters Persuasion Share Formula Key Projected Persuadable Voters = Turnout Projection x Persuasion % Persuasion Share = Regional Persuadable Voters / Total Persuadable Voters 14 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
15 A Winnable District Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout : 503 Persuasion Index: 18% Projected Perusable Voters 91 Persuasion Share 23.6% District Totals 08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share 100% Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Perusable Voters 106 Persuasion Share 27.6% Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout : 986 Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Perusable Voters 187 Persuasion Share 48.8% 15 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
16 Questions? Instant Message: DFA Night School 16 Questions?
17 Field Targeting Strategies DEM BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = greater than 65% - Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = less than 35% - Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only SWING PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = between 35% and 65% - Identification, Persuasion & GOTV 17 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
18 Targeting with Voter History Voter Contact Priorities A. Undecideds likely to Vote (ID, Persuasion) B. Supporters less likely to vote (ID, GOTV) C. Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion, GOTV) D. Supporters likely to vote (Base building) Voting History Always Vote (4x4) Sometimes Vote (2x4) (0x0) Never Vote (0x4) Partisanship ID Strong Supporter (1) D Base B E Undecided (2, 3, 4) A Persuasion C Persuasion #2 E Strong Opponent (5) F F F 18 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
19 One big list of voters for all Democrats VAN Power The VAN doesn t fix itself! Contact your local county Democratic Party or DNC organizer for access 19 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
20 Targeting with Constituencies Look at your candidate and message Identify your supporters in the community Listen! Build bases of support 20 Questions?
21 Questions Instant Message DFA Night School 21 Questions?
22 Homework 1. Download the attached worksheet Click Here to download 2. Calculate the Vote Goals in your area 3. Sign up for next month s Night School 22 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
23 Learn more every Month May 28 th 8:30pm ET Writing a Field Plan Part 2: Tactics, Timelines, & Benchmarks fieldplanpart2 DFA Training Weekends April West Long Branch, NJ May 3-4 Rochester, NY May Cincinnati, OH May 31-June 1 Pittsburgh, PA June 7-8 Lansing, MI June Kansas City, MO June Albuquerque, NM July Miami, FL July Austin, TX Netroots Nation 23 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
24 Thank you for joining us! Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations? Order previous semesters on DVD (and help keep Night School free) Join the DFA Trust 24 Questions?
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Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, October 9, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY