The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Embedded Liberalism. The Case of the Bretton Woods System
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1 The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Embedded Liberalism The Case of the Bretton Woods System
2 Clicker quiz: Why the effort to restore Free Trade after WW II? A. Because corporations wanted to restore their markets: The Law of grow or die! B. Because Free Trade helps nations distribute resources equally C. Because the benefits of Free Trade accrue to the most powerful states, increasing their power D. Because Free Trade creates aggregate wealth
3 Review: state intervention in the economy: three lessons of the Great Depression Economic stability is not assured through market forces And market forces that lead to economic downturns create political instability Political stability requires state intervention to achieve economic stability deficit spending and bailouts to keep workers and capitalists happy so they don t turn to communism and fascism Regulation to stabilize the economy and flaten the business cycle
4 But Free Trade tends to undermine these new roles for the state Inefficient industries must fail! Employment must fluctuate with supply and demand for labor If they leave their economies open, what would happen to the welfare state? Welfare State Full Employment And If they maintain the welfare state, what happens to Free Trade?
5 If they left their economies open, what would happen to Keynesian Macroeconomics and the welfare state? Open international economy requires trade to balance so that states pay for what they buy from others and get paid for what they sell. So imports + exports trade deficit need to pay up no credit? deflate their economies i.e. raise interest rates inefficient economies fail + access to credit bankrupcies, +unemployment in income so that imports would slow down trade payments would balance
6 And If they safety nets and deficit spending, what happens to Free Trade? The cost a lot Creates Big government Crowding out private investment and competition Stagnant economy Balance of payment deficits Tendency toward economic nationalism
7 Maintaining a welfare state: the tendency toward economic nationalism Welfare State FULL Employment
8 States can borrow to balance payments and keep economies open But In the trough, credit dries up Deflation not possible w/ welfare state + Keynesian deficit spending So instead. imports + exports trade deficit need to pay up no credit? deplete reserves confidence of others in currency value currency value exports competitive devaluations - all want to export and noone wants to import all erect tariffs global economy closes
9 Tendency toward economic nationalism Summary Market imperatives Wine Cloth Total Engl and Port ugal Total goods produced 27 Political Imperatives Governments must intervene in markets
10 Defect (protectionism) cooperate Tendency toward economic nationalism: explaining protectionism as a PD Game why to states close their economies? Cooperate (free trade) 5, 5 Comparative advantage Growth for all, I keep my market open even with BOP deficits because I know things will get better 3,0 You keep your market open, I close mine, I win, you lose and eventually you retaliate Defect (protectionism) 0,3 I keep my market open but you close yours; I lose so eventually I will retaliate 1,1 We both close our markets; you close yours, I retaliate, you retaliate, and so on..no more free trade Contradictions between needs of the domestic political economy and the need for cooperation in the International economy
11 Liberals and Socialists defeated Fascism in WW II
12 But in both, the Tendency toward Econ. Nationalism remained powerful Nonetheless, after WW II the liberal states wanted to restore open and free trade WHY?
13 If the tendency toward econ. Nat. was so powerful, why was there an effort to restore liberalism in the international economy? Liberal beliefs about the economic causes of war. Backlash against liberalism Belief in Economic Nationalism Protectionism Trade Wars International Economic fragmentation War Totalitarianism Militarism Expansion Dominant belief after WW II: Fascist Dictatorship + Protectionism leads to war
14 And belief that Free Trade leads to Peace Raises price of aggression Free Trade Comparative Advantage Global Interdepe ndence Global Prosperity Peace Prosperous Economies; no need to fight
15 To preserve the welfare state, peace, and democracy the international liberal economy would need to be repaired What kind of repair was needed: International embedded Liberalism embed the Liberal economy in national and global society Transplant from the simplest notions of democracy : Limited liberalism This will. Reduce the need for economic nationalism and the rise of socialism and fascism
16 Defect (protectionism) cooperate But getting even embedded liberalism is a collective action problem Cooperate (free trade) requires Leadership 5, 5 Comparative advantage Growth for all, I keep my market open even with BOP deficits things will get better 3,0 You keep your market open, I close mine, I win, you lose and eventually you retaliate Defect (protectionism) 0,3 I keep my market open but you close yours; I lose so eventually I will retaliate 1,1 We both close our markets; you close yours, I retaliate, you retaliate, and so on..no more free trade Collective Action requires that the strong help the weak to cooperate
17 Remember that Kindelberger says that Hegemonic Power is required for cooperation to create a system of embedded liberalism Hegemonic states have the resources to Open markets even with a trade deficit Extend credits to countries with payments deficits Provide countercyclical lending and be a lender of last resort in the trough That softens the contradictions. What does leadership mean Ruggie says it is the fusion of power and purpose It means assisting others in a liberal world economy How?
18 Hypothetical Recovery with Hegemonic leadership of international liberalism Britain as Hegemonic Leader Open markets Credits Countercyclical loans Hegemonic help Required to build up nerve But Britain declined and People lost their nerve and called on Govt. to intervene Protectionism
19 But It takes power and willingness to be a liberal hegemon Britain had both.. the capability to Extend credits for payment deficits Offer a market for others goods Be a lender of last resort But then Britain began to decline And the US had the capability but not the willingness Why not?
20 How could a liberal trading system be revived without a hegemon? Bretton Woods Conference If Goods can t cross borders, soldiers will Resolving the dilemma between internal and external stability. Intergovernmental collaboration to facilitate balance-of-payments equilibrium Multilateralism based on domestic intervention
21 The architects of global governance in the services of embedded liberalism: Keynes and White Their Agenda: Create Free Trade Again
22 They had to think of a way to embed Liberalism without a hegemon! Resolving the dilemma between internal and external stability. Intergovernmental collaboration to facilitate balance-of-payments equilibrium AND Multilateralism in trade and finance The world could have its cake and eat it too!
23 How to do it? Currencies had to be stable but No more Gold Standard!!! Why not? But There would be Fluctuating exchange rates in the absence of the gold standard Not good. Why? So..
24 Create conditions for stable currencies w/o the Gold Standard Keynes and White had to come up with a way to get stable currency Stable currency depended on Fixed Exchange Rates Currency convertibility So they came up with a bright idea!
25 Keynes and White created the IMF at Bretton Woods A new Gold Standard? Not exactly. It was called the gold exchange standard The IMF was a watchdog: to ensure the members did not change their exchange rates If they got into trouble, the IMF would loan them money to replenish reserves to pay for imports
26 Fixed exchange rates with IMF as lender of last resort, and provider of liquidity imports + exports trade deficit need to pay up borrow from IMF currency stability trade stability How does it work? Quota system, voting rights, borrowing rights
27 Next Problem: How to get Free Trade Make everyone promise to keep economies open, no matter what: (WTO)
28 Main Principles of the GATT/WTO: All promise not to defect from cooperation Multilateralism Reciprocity Exceptions Development
29 Defect (protectionism) cooperate The WTO as a solution to the problem of cooperation for Free trade Cooperate (free trade) 5, 5 carrots: GATT and IMF assurances that if I keep my market open even with BOP deficits I will receive help for my problems and assurance that others will not cheat. 3,3 You keep your market open but if I close mine, You report me to the WTO for non-compliance and we use the DSM. If I lose, I must pay you compensation Defect (protectionism) 3,3 sticks DSM raises the costs of defection 1,1 We both close our markets; you close yours, I retaliate, you retaliate, and so on..no more free trade. No access to MFN, reciprocity, etc.
30 Problem with these governing institutions: The war had weakened the economies of the industrial powers Hiroshima Tokyo
31 Destruction in Europe Air bombing had reduced whole cities, especially in Germany, to piles of debris. The Allies' strategic bombing had blighted the productive industry and the transport facilities of the Continent. Goods, even if produced, could not be moved; millions of refugees from bombed-out cities or from hostile political regiems sought desperately for an asylum. The war had ruined one of the world's chief industrial areas and brought its economic system to collapse.
32 Sooooo..World Bank!
33 And the institutions were too weak to solve collective action problems Inadequate IMF resources Inadequate world bank resources GATT was only a set of rules---promises no good without resources to back them up
34 So the United States rose to the occasion...
35 How did the U.S. exercise hegemonic leadership of an liberal world economy? the United States assumed primary responsibility for the management of the world monetary system partially under the disguise of the IMF. The dollar became the basis of the international monetary system. The US took in the world s distressed goods and began to build a trade deficit itself
36 Liquidity and Credit
37 Taking in the world s (well Europe and Japan s) distressed goods
38 What were the results? The Welfare State was protected Decline in Trade Barriers Economic Growth Per Capita Income Western Europe $4,594 $11,534 U.S. and Canada $5,257 $9.288 Japan $1.926 $11,439
39 Embedded Liberalism was successful (in the Western World)! GATT negotiations reduced tariffs Since 1948, world trade has consistently grown faster than world output. I one quarter of world production is now traded. Meaning that one quarter of world production is subject to the WTO rules of international trade.
40 Why was the US now willing to play the role of hegemon? It possessed the capabilities but why was it now willing?
41 Marxist explanations Overproduction and capitalist class control of the economy Need for U.S. export markets to relieve overproduction Bankers pushed U.S. leadership of the world economy "After the war, our economic policy will be aimed at full employment and full utilization of a greatly enlarged industrial plant. These objectives, however, cannot be realized unless we find new outlets for products of farm and factory--outlets that will be steady and profitable after war demands have dropped off. -- U.S. Treausry Department report to President Roosevelt in 1944:
42 Economic Nationalist explanations Hegemony is a source of wealth, power and security Control over raw materials Control over sources of capital Control over markets Competitive advantage in the production of highly valued goods: control over high technology
43 Liberal explanations: Free Trade leads to Peace and American Prosperity "peace is only possible if countries work together and prosper together. That is why the economic aspects are no less important than the political aspects of the peace.
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