PSCI4120 Public Opinion and Participation

Transcription

1 PSCI4120 Public Opinion and Participation Micro-level Opinion Tetsuya Matsubayashi University of North Texas February 7, / 26

2 Questions on Micro-level Opinion 1 Political knowledge and opinion-holding In theory, democracy works best when people actively attend to public affairs. Early researchers found that people s opinions on politics seem like unconnected preferences in no logical relationship to one another. Are people informed about politics? Do they have stable opinions on political issues? 2 Core political values We look for a summary measure of people s core political values. What is liberal-conservative ideology? Are individuals ideological positions consistent with their policy preferences? What role does PID play in the formation of political identity? 2 / 26

3 Level of Information among the Public How much do people know about politics? % Issue Year 96 Know president s term is four years Know Cuba is communist Know Roe v. Wade is about abortion rights Know the Republicans control the House of Representatives Know name of congressional representative Know political office held by William Rehnquist Can identify office held by Dennis Hastert 2004 Overall knowledge levels among the public remain disappointingly low. 3 / 26

4 Knowledge and Opinion-Holding Differences in opinions between the informed and the uninformed? Opinion Informed Uninformed Differences (%) (%) (%) Legalize abortions Favor gun control Support nat. health insurance Increase domestic spending Democrat A huge gap in the opinions on social and welfare issues. This gap has a significant implication to policy consequences. 4 / 26

5 Converting Information into Opinions What is the process by which information becomes converted into opinions? The online model (Lodge, Steenbergen, and Brau 1995) Opinions are constantly updated in response to new information. Updated opinions are then stored in long-term memory and recalled when needed. The memory-based model (Zaller and Feldman 1992; Zaller 1992) Rather than a formed opinion, what is retrieved from memory is a series of considerations that favor one side of an issue or the other. Opinion is expressed as a weighted average of multiple considerations on an issue. Both models cannot be fully correct! 5 / 26

6 Opinion Stability Response instability to survey questions is considerably large. Use a panel survey that asks the same respondents about the same policy issue with the same question format over time. Many panelists who offer opinions in successive interviews change their position from one side to the other which is seemingly inconsistent with the traditional notion of an attitude as an enduring predisposition. Abortion (most stable) Summer 1989 Never Special Cases Always Never 31% 6% 1% Fall 1989 Special Cases 6% 12% 4% Always 2% 5% 34% 6 / 26

7 Opinion Stability Government Service (relatively unstable) Preelection 2004 Fewer In-between More Fewer 14% 6% 4% Postelection 2004 In-between 5% 21% 16% More 2% 9% 23% Time interval between panel waves has little bearing on the observed amount of response stability. Response change does not represent true change in underlying attitudes How can we interpret this opinion instability? What is a mechanism of survey response or opinion expression? 7 / 26

8 Competing Explanations for Opinion Instability 1 The nonattitude explanation (Converse 1964) No true opinion Random responses 2 The measurement error explanation (Achen 1975; Erikson 1979) The sophisticated and informed also show unstable attitudes The blame is placed on wording and formats of survey questions 3 An explanation based on response probability (Zaller and Feldman 1992; Zaller 1992) 8 / 26

9 A Simple Theory of the Survey Response AXIOM 1 The ambivalence axiom: Most people possess opposing considerations on most issues, that is, considerations that might lead them to decide the issue either way. AXIOM 2 The response axiom: Individuals answer survey questions by averaging across the considerations that happen to be salient at the moment of response, where saliency is determined by the accessibility axiom. AXIOM 3 The accessibility axiom: The accessibility of any given consideration depends on a stochastic sampling process, where considerations that have been recently thought about are somewhat more likely to be sampled. 9 / 26

10 Liberal-Conservative Ideology People do not have a fixed attitude on specific policy issues, but... Public opinions are connected by logical consistency with core political values We try to summarize citizens s opinions in terms of how people weight political values such as individual responsibility, equality, tradition, and individual freedom. Ideology: any set of beliefs about the proper order of society and how it can be achieved. People with strong ideologies use their personal ideology as a guide for understanding the political world. 10 / 26

11 Liberal and Conservative Terminology Conservatives view society as a control for humanity s worst impulses; liberals view the human condition as relative to the quality of society. Conservatives consider people inherently unequal and due unequal rewards; liberals are egalitarian. Conservatives venerate tradition, order, and authority; liberals believe planned change brings the possibility of improvement. Conservatives are more afraid than liberals of big government. Conservatives tend to be moralistic; liberals are more permissive. 11 / 26

12 Meaning of Liberal and Conservative Economic distinctions are used most often to explain the difference between liberals and conservatives: Liberal Conservative Government service/spending More Less Government job and standard of living Yes No National health insurance Yes No Aid to blacks Yes No Defense spending Less More Diplomacy-military Diplomat Aggressive Gun control Yes No Women s role More Less Law protecting gays Yes No Abortion Permit Not Permit 12 / 26

13 Distribution on the Seven-Point Scale Question format (NES): We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. Here is a seven-point scale on which the political views that most people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal to extremely conservative. Where would you place yourself on this scale, or haven t you thought much about it? 1 Extremely liberal 2 Liberal 3 Slightly liberal 4 Moderate, middle-of-the-road 5 Slightly conservative 6 Conservative 7 Extremely conservative 8 Don t know 9 Haven t thought much about it 13 / 26

14 Distribution on the Seven-Point Scale in 2004 Proportion Extremely Liberal Slightly Liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Extremely Conservative / 26

15 Ideology and Policy Preferences You see large differences in support for various policy issues between liberals and conservatives: Belief Liberals Conservatives The government should guarantee that every 71% 16% person has a job and good standard of living The government should make every effort to improve the social and economic position of blacks The government should make it more difficult to buy a gun Permit abortion always or if needed Favor diplomacy to solve international problems rather than being ready to use military Self-declared liberals take issue positions considerably more liberal than do self-declared conservatives 15 / 26

16 Ideology as Liberal-Conservative Consistency Density Liberal Moderate Conservative Ten Item Composite Opinion Scores 16 / 26

17 Ideology as Liberal-Conservative Consistency The public is mixed in its understanding and usage of ideological language and thinking! Increase domestic spending Pro Con National Pro 52% 8% health insurance Con 16% 24% Legalize abortions Pro Con Equal role Pro 56% 36% for women Con 1% 7% More domestic spending Pro Con Cut military Pro 23% 6% spending Con 42% 30% 17 / 26

18 Political Sophistication and Opinion Consistency Liberal-conservative opinion consistency is quite high among those most knowledgeable about politics. Low information: High information: Legal Abortions Pro Con National Health Pro 32% 29% Insurance Con 19% 20% Legal Abortions Pro Con National Health Pro 40% 12% Insurance Con 23% 25% 18 / 26

19 Ideology A Single Dimension? Social Issues C Populist Conservatives L C Economic Issues Liberals Libertarian L 19 / 26

20 Party Identification Party identification a person s net evaluation of the Republican and Democratic parties. Ideological identification may be of particular relevance for a select segment of the public. People at all levels of sophistication appear to hold meaningful party identifications. Stable over time Information short cut 20 / 26

21 Survey Question All are asked: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? Republican and Democrats are asked: Would you call yourself a strong Republican [Democrat] or not so strong Republican [Democrat?] Independents are asked: Do you think of yourself as close to the Republican Party or to the Democratic party? Responses to these questions result in a seven-point scale of partisanship: Strong D Weak D Ind, leaning D Pure Ind Ind, leaning R Weak R Strong R 21 / 26

22 Distribution of PID in 2004 Party Identification Proportion Strong Democrat Democrat Independent Democrat Independent Independent Republican Republican Strong Republican / 26

23 Perceptions of Party Difference People recognize the parties relative positions on various policy issues Perception of Which Party is More in Favor of... D R DK/NA More domestic spending 63% 15% 22% Reducing defense spending Guaranteed living standard Aid to blacks Equal role for women Abortion rights The public s perceptions of party differences on issues such as abortion, crimes, and gay rights have been growing over the years 23 / 26

24 Party Identification and Policy Opinions Democrats and Republicans express different preferences on policy issues (especially social welfare issues) Issue Strong D Weak D Ind. Weak R Strong R More domestic spending 90% 85% 72% 51% 38% Job guarantee Less defense spending Aid to blacks Laws protecting gays National health insurance Favor gun control Favor abortion rights / 26

25 Composite Opinion by Party Identification Democrats Republicans Density Density Ten Item Composite Opinion Scores Ten Item Composite Opinion Scores 25 / 26

26 Final Issues What causes the consistency between political opinions and party identification? Do people learn their political opinions from their party identifications, or do political opinions shape party identifications? Party identification psychological attachment or running tally? 26 / 26