DUTERTE S IN(DEPEND)ENT FOREIGN POLICY

Transcription

1 DUTERTE S IN(DEPEND)ENT FOREIGN POLICY BY GALILEO DE GUZMAN CASTILLO

2

3 Foreign Policy o Patakarang Panlabas diplomacy military and security international law and treaties including human rights environment economics trade and investments

4 Foreign Policies Domestic Policies War on Drugs Criminality Corruption Terrorism I would not appear to be beholden to anybody. I only am answerable, again, to the Filipino people who elected me as president. Period. Nobody but nobody should interfere. This is an independent country; nobody has the right to lecture on me. God, do not do it. (Sept. 2016, Davao) Photo credit: Asian Dragon Magazine Served 7 terms as mayor, more than 22 years in office Local warlordism as basis of governance Davao model transported to national

5 Article II of the 1987 Philippine Constitution Section 2. The Philippines renounces war as an instrument of national policy, adopts the generally accepted principles of international law as part of the law of the land and adheres to the policy of peace, equality, justice, freedom, cooperation, and amity with all nations.

6 Article II of the 1987 Philippine Constitution Section 7. The State shall pursue an independent foreign policy. In its relations with other states, the paramount consideration shall be national sovereignty, territorial integrity, national interest and the right to self-determination.

7 Article II of the 1987 Philippine Constitution Section 8. The Philippines, consistent with the national interest, adopts and pursues a policy of freedom from nuclear weapons in its territory. Section 19. The State shall develop a selfreliant and independent national economy effectively controlled by Filipinos.

8 A fundamental shift Philippines rethinking of its almost centurylong alliance with its erstwhile colonizer I announce my separation from the United States, both in military but economics also (Oct. 2016, Duterte)

9 Announced an end to the joint US and Philippine military drills and that the already scheduled joint military exercises between Filipino and American troops will be the last (September 2016) Threatened to scrap the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and ended 2016 by saying bye-bye to America and the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in retaliation to the Millennium Challenge Corporation s deferment of voting to renew aid to the Philippines (October 2016)

10 In his own words

11 Has gone around cursing the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) when they criticized his bloody war on drugs and raised concerns on human rights Rejected foreign aid that his administration felt may allow others to interfere in the country s internal affairs

12 In his own words

13 A significant change but Understanding of an independent foreign policy would seem to revolve mainly around being free from interference in his domestic policies P******** nila, [son of a b*tch] when they criticize me, and all of those guys who appeared before the international networks, they would say this Mayor Duterte, you must account for those who are killed blah blah blah

14 Duterte s in(depend)ent foreign policy while he has sought to be free from the US and EU, he is not loath to turn to other powerful players, namely China and Russia Seemingly independent but hurrying to be under the wings of other rival powers? Whimsical and incoherent or just plain opportunistic?

15 Philippine President Rodrigo Roa Duterte and People s Republic of China President Xi Jinping shake hands prior to their bilateral meetings at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 20, Photo by King Rodriguez/PPD. (Retrieved from

16 The (in)coherence and (in)consistencies flip-flopping on critical issues like the MDT, EDCA, VFA, Balikatan, and military alliances [The 33rd iteration of the Balikatan Exercises was launched on May 8, 2017] Photo Credit: The Philippine Star - AP/Bullit Marquez

17 Map by: Photos of bases from various sources The Philippines is not a vassal state, we have long ceased to be a colony of the US. (Duterte, Sept. 2016)

18 The (in)coherence and (in)consistencies primary intention is to chart an independent foreign policy while promoting closer ties with all nations, especially the US with which [the Philippines] have had a long-standing partnership (Abella, September 2016) The Cabinet will move strongly and swiftly towards regional economic integration. This is why the president prioritized foreign trips to ASEAN and Asia. We will maintain relations with the West but we desire stronger integration with our neighbors. We share the culture and a better understanding with our region. (joint statement by DOF Sec. Dominguez and NEDA Sec. Pernia, October 2016)

19 On Trade Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Foreign Trade Statistics of the Philippines, 2016 July 15

20

21 On ASEAN Total external trade in goods with ASEAN member countries amounted to $ billion or 20.6% of the PH s entire trade Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Foreign Trade Statistics of the Philippines, 2016 July 15

22 A budget allocation of 15.5 billion for the ASEAN processes as the Philippines assumed chairship in 2017 curiously, 11.5 billion was allocated under the Office of the President) Photo Credit: The Philippine Star - AFP/Mark R. Cristino in comparison to a budget of 16.5 billion in 2017 (down by almost 4 billion or 19.9% from 2016) for the entire DFA

23 Duterte s hedging game A diplomatic balancing act that on the one hand may improve political and economic relations with certain countries but

24 Duterte, a master strategist (?) isolationist agenda under the Trump presidency I will be dependent on you for a long time axis of power shifting to China in its pursuit of a more multilateral agenda; China is poised to emerge as a global power One Belt, One Road; AIIB

25 Duterte s presidential foreign trips 21 trips, 1 year 46 trips 6 years 127 trips 9 years 20 trips, 2 years 69 trips, 6 years (Almost 400 million) most frequented country: the US Photo credit: Jay Diloy, Caricature of Philippine Presidents, YAJYOLID Digital Artworks and Design. Photo of Duterte from Rappler

26 maintaining stronger cooperation and integration with the Philippines neighbors in Southeast and East Asia while exploring linkages and/or re-establishing relations with other nations (Russia, West Asia) As of June 2017, Duterte has made presidential trips (classified as a state, an official, or a working visit) to sixteen sovereign states internationally. This includes one visit to Bahrain, Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Peru, Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Vietnam and two visits to Cambodia, China, and Thailand. Photo by PatTag2659. (Retrieved from licensed under CC BY 4.0

27 what is common to these nations is that they are either supportive of, or silent, on his flagship war on drugs. Specifically, China s explicit support on Duterte s war on drugs, which the US cannot match because of its stance on human rights, makes the China pivot more attractive Welcoming President Duterte to the Old Boys' Club

28 We hope the international community can respect the judicial sovereignty of the Philippines and support its efforts in fighting drugrelated crimes through cooperation. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, on the 27 th session of Universal Periodic Review (UPR), May 8 Photo credit: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People s Republic of China, 2016 November of 47 members of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) expressed concern over the wave of extrajudicial killings and revival of death penalty in the Philippines.

29 We need to take a committed stand to dismantle and destroy the illegal drugs trade apparatus. We must reaffirm our commitment to realize a drug-free ASEAN community. zeroed in on his war on drugs and sought support for his flagship domestic policy Photo credit: John Ted Cordero/MDM, GMA News

30 A purely dualistic worldview Us against the world -- Duterte summarized the long and short of his in(depend)ent foreign policy by realigning the Philippines with China s ideological flow and going to Russia to tell his idol Putin that the only way would be via a threesome among China, Philippines, and Russia against the world

31 Survey says +59 or very good +37 or good +9 or neutral (from -33 or bad) Source: Social Weather Stations. (2017 March 6) Fourth Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey: Net trust rating of countries: "Very Good" +59 for United States; "Good" +37 for Australia and Japan; "Neutral" +9 for China and Russia. Retrieved from

32 Pivot to China a victory Photo Credt: Wikimedia

33 The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) reported that majority of these are concessional and are either tied loans or grants that are currently merely pledges. The two-part report by Malou Mangahas, Karol Ilagan, and Kenneth Cardenas may be accessed at these links: (1) (2) (3) (4)

34 At what cost? Not invoking the international arbitral tribunal landmark ruling that invalidated China s so-called nine-dash line (China said it will not honor it) Downplaying the territorial and maritime disputes in the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea Issuing a watered-down ASEAN Chair Statement that was silent on China and its aggressive landfrom-sea reclamation and militarization

35 Photo credit: Lean Daval Jr / Reuters, 2017 April 30 Photo credit: Presidential Photo

36 May official visit to Russia cut short with the terror attacks in Marawi upon which he promptly declared Martial Law in the entire Mindanao while still in Moscow produced ten deals on a wide range of issues defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy among others

37 Photo credit: Eugene Hoshiko, 2016 October 26 On the Security Front What must Japan long-time staunch ally of the US and wary of China dominance in the region think of the renewed Sino- Philippine relations?

38 We fully commit to further strengthening the Strategic Partnership based on such common values as freedom, democracy, the rule of law, respect for basic human rights, and a free and open economy. (From the Philippines- Japan Joint Statement highlighting security cooperation, bilateral relationship and maintenance of regional peace and stability, 2016 October 26)

39 Political security relations with the US remain strong despite changes in the nature of the military exercises As revealed by the US Special Forces support to the operations of the AFP in the crisishit Marawi City. Photo Credit: AP Photo/Bullit Marquez, 2017 May 30

40 The reemergence of Sino-Philippine defense cooperation (and Russian) military aid package of 590 million worth of weapons and ammunitions to fight the ISIS-inspired Maute on top of the 15 million donation for relief and rehabilitation Thank you China! This is the dawn of a new era! turned to Moscow to purchase arms as a result of the cancellation of a deal with the US (sale of 27,000 rifles to the PNP)

41 Differentiating independent from in(depend)ent What should a truly independent foreign policy mean for a developing country like the Philippines an archipelagic state situated in the geostrategic, geoeconomic, and geo-political Asia-Pacific region, and with a long colonial history that spanned more than three centuries?

42 Democratic Photo Credit: Andrew Wehrheim, The Weakness of Nationalism Photo Credit: The Fragile States Resource Center

43 Principled Photo Credit: Taringa! Inteligencia Colectiva

44 Strategic Principle of Mutuality and it should be seen as part of the country s long-term vision to attain social justice, sustainable development, and lasting peace

45 In contrast, a myopic view fixated on seeking legitimacy for the flagship war on drugs falling into overdependence on China and not understanding the nuances of foreign policy and the complex decisions a head of state must make, especially in crucial times when the country s sovereignty is threatened

46 The pendulum towards an independent foreign policy has swung but the people needs a hand in its direction

47 An in(depend)ent foreign policy being determined by Duterte s whims? being controlled by newly identified allies, who the Philippines trusts it would be able to rely on? Would Duterte s pivot be contingent and conditional on whether a country supports or opposes his administration s flagship war on drugs? In the end, who really gets to influence and decide? IT DEPENDS.

48 For a long time already, many Philippine regimes bowed to the impositions of the advocates of imperialism and swallowed the sugarcoated poison of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank (IMF-WB) duo which wreaked havoc to our national economy and has only brought further inequality and poverty to this country

49 many of our national woes, including foreign debt, widespread poverty, worsening unemployment are caused by having been entangled if not integrated in the structures of an inequitable global economic system where the decisions, activities, and influence of countries with dominant economies and with the greatest influence on institutions like the IMF-WB and the World Trade Organization, impact on our local politics to a great extent. --Roland Simbulan, in his paper, Reviewing Critical Issues in Philippine Foreign and Security Policies: Towards an Assessment of the Visiting Forces Agreement, Development Roundtable Series, 2008 September 16

50 It begs the question When placed in the much larger context of neocolonialism, imperialist globalization, cultural hegemony, and tug-of-war between major powers, would Duterte s in(depend)ent foreign policy protect the interests of the Filipino people? Or further undermine the Philippines sovereignty?

51 A pivotal moment; September 16, 1991 Photo Credit: PH2 FARRINGTON, Wikimedia (left) [US turned over its military bases to the Philippines] and Romeo Gacad/AFP (right) [ Filipino spectators watch the USS Belleau Wood leave Cubi Point]

52 convergence space for discourse & action mutually respecting arrangements solidarity among nations equidistant and balanced democratic, principled, and strategic foreign policy

53 Conclusion The Duterte administration came to power a year ago on the promise of change would it be genuine change for a truly independent foreign policy path for the Philippines? Would the Duterte government adopt a foreign policy that is truly democratic, principled, strategic, and independent?

54 Photo Credit: Damon Shulenberger, Reuters, and the Philippine Daily Inquirer When the dust of Duterte s outbursts, pronouncements, and actions has finally settled, would we finally see the Philippines attaining an independent foreign policy faithful to the spirit of its Constitution?

55 Or by this time, would the people have grown weary of Duterte s invectives and empty promises, and eventually realize that the emperor has no clothes? Photo Credit: Bob Summerwill

56 Calvin and Hobbes by Bill Watterson for August 11, Copyright Calvin and Hobbes, Universal Uclick All Rights Reserved. (Retrieved from