อาเซ ยน บทบาทในการเสร มสร างความม นคงในภ ม ภาค และความส มพ นธ ก บมหาอ านาจ 31 ต ลาคม 2556 อ. ภ ญญ ศ รประภาศ ร คณะร ฐศาสตร มหาว ทยาล ยธรรมศาสตร

Transcription

1 อาเซ ยน บทบาทในการเสร มสร างความม นคงในภ ม ภาค และความส มพ นธ ก บมหาอ านาจ 31 ต ลาคม 2556 อ. ภ ญญ ศ รประภาศ ร คณะร ฐศาสตร มหาว ทยาล ยธรรมศาสตร

2 Security Bodies 1967 ASEAN established 1976 First ASEAN Summit and Treaty of Amity and Cooperation signed 1994 ASEAN Regional Forum established First ASEAN Plus Three meeting and first ASEAN- China Summit Bali Concord II (ASEAN Community by 2020 and later changed to 2015) 2005 First East Asia Summit meeting 2007 ASEAN Charter signed

3 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (1976) (and subsequent regional agreements) is based on the principles of 4 documents: UN Charter 1955 Asian-African Conference s Ten Principles Bangkok Declaration (1967) Kuala Lumpur Declaration (1971)

4 ASEAN s Principles ASEAN Way ASEAN is inspired particularly by 5 of UN s principles respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states abstention from threat or use of force peaceful settlement of international disputes equal rights and self-determination non-interference in affairs of States

5 ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Way Participants: Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, United States, and Vietnam. Objectives: to foster constructive dialogue and consultation on political and security issues of common interest and concern to make significant contributions to efforts towards confidencebuilding and preventive diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region

6 ASEAN Political-Security Community Rationale Development Challenges Opportunities

7 APSC: Rationale ASEAN leaders hope to create a cooperation that was not a military alliance but a comprehensive security framework to provide peaceful settlement of disputes based on the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation -- A Virtuous Cycle ASEAN leaders envisage APSC to be a rules-based community of shared values and norms a cohesive, peaceful, stable and resilient region with shared responsibility for comprehensive security a dynamic and outward-looking region in an increasingly integrated and interdependent world

8 APSC: Development The 7 th ASEAN Coordinating Conference for the ASEAN Political-Security Community (ASCCO) Directors-General of Immigration and Heads of Consular Affairs of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, the ASEAN Senior Officials on Drug Matters, the ASEAN Defense Senior Officials Meeting, the Senior Officials Meeting on Transnational Crime, delegates from the Senior Officials Meeting on Labour, the ASEAN Senior Officials Responsible for Information, the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights, and the ASEAN Foundation

9 APSC: Challenges major powers in the regions intra-asean conflicts South China Sea conflicts internal conflicts and political changes transnational challenges ASEAN Secretariat ASEAN Way and ASEAN values

10 APSC: Opportunities helps uphold existing ASEAN political-security instruments such as TAC, ZOPFAN, and SEANWFZ a more comprehensive and a closer regional collaboration a step towards a pluralistic security community where the use of force between members is almost unthinkable (Deutsch et al., 1957) a platform for ASEAN Regional Forum an institutionalized political-security body

11 ASEAN and Major Powers

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13 ASEAN and China ASEAN-China Relations ASEAN-China FTA ASEAN-China Defense Ministers Meeting Treaty of Amity and Cooperation Bilateral Relations Malaysia-China s first joint military exercise in 2014 Joint Statement of Future Direction of China-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

14 ASEAN and China President Xi Jinping proposed in October 2013 Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation between China and ASEAN to cement peaceful relations with ASEAN countries and to eliminate any ASEAN countries misgivings about China

15 ASEAN and China South China Sea Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea - a political declaration adopted at the 2002 ASEAN-China Summit to alleviate tensions among the parties concerned in territorial issues in the South China Sea and to confirm standards of conduct for these parties The Philippines (and Vietnam) seeks support from the US and keeps China in check

16 ASEAN and the US ASEAN-US Relations ASEAN Regional Forum East Asia Summit ASEAN-US Leaders Meeting ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus ASEAN-U.S. Joint Declaration on Cooperation to Combat International Terrorism Treaty of Amity and Cooperation U.S.-ASEAN Expanded Economic Engagement (E3) Initiative

17 ASEAN and the US Bilateral Relations US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty US-Vietnam s 2011 Memorandum of Understanding on Advancing Bilateral Defense Cooperation and US-Vietnam Political, Security, and Defense Dialogue. Joint US Military Advisory Group Thailand and Cobra Gold

18 ASEAN and the US Obama s 2010 pivot to Asia policy? Trip to Asia in 2010 cancelled because of domestic pressures Invitation to attend APEC forum in Vladivostok declined because of the timing of the Democratic convention Trip to APEC and ASEAN Summit cancelled because of government shutdown

19 China-ASEAN-the US Economic Dimension: China proposed trade deal with ASEAN from $400 billion in 2012 to $1 trillion in 2020 US-ASEAN trade was $200 billion in 2012 with E3 underway

20 China-ASEAN-the US Political-Security Dimension: South China Sea initiatives Joint Military Exercises in South China Sea China s peasant approach versus the US s grand strategy