DEMOCRATS TOP REPUBLICANS IN CONNECTICUT GOV RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; FOLEY HAS ALMOST 4-1 LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

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1 Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) FOR RELEASE: JULY 15, 2010 DEMOCRATS TOP REPUBLICANS IN CONNECTICUT GOV RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; FOLEY HAS ALMOST 4-1 LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY Democratic contenders Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy top any of the three possible Republican candidates for Governor of Connecticut by margins of 11 percentage points or more among registered voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Among likely Republican primary voters, former ambassador Tom Foley leads with 48 percent, followed by Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele with 13 percent and businessman Oz Griebel with 7 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Another 32 percent are undecided. This is the first survey of likely primary voters and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Among likely Democratic primary voters, businessman Lamont leads former Stamford Mayor Malloy percent, with 16 percent undecided. Democrats lead in any possible general election matchups among registered voters: Lamont over Foley percent; Lamont over Fedele percent; Lamont over Griebel percent; Malloy over Foley percent; Malloy over Fedele percent; Malloy over Griebel percent. The Democrats haven t won a race for Governor in Connecticut in 24 years. Could this be their year? Both Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy have double digit leads over all the Republicans, including frontrunner Tom Foley. The Democratic candidates benefit from the state s Democratic registration advantage and they are better known than the Republican contenders, said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. -more-

2 Quinnipiac University Poll/July 15, 2010 page 2 Democrats also could be helped by the divisiveness of the Republican primary battle, which seems nastier than the Democratic campaign, an unusual twist, Dr. Schwartz added. A total of 41 percent of Connecticut likely Republican primary voters have heard a lot or some about Foley s two past arrests, while 58 percent have heard not much or nothing at all. Only 30 percent of these primary voters say the arrest controversy makes them less likely to vote for Foley, as 55 percent say it doesn t make a difference. Foley s past arrests are a private matter, 48 percent say, while 28 percent say they are a legitimate issue. By a 45 9 percent margin, Connecticut Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Foley, with 42 percent who haven t heard enough to form an opinion. For Fedele, 73 percent haven t heard enough. For Griebel, 81 percent haven t heard enough to form an opinion. Among those Republican likely primary voters who select a candidate, 73 percent say they might change their mind before the August 10 primary. Likely Democratic primary voters are more solid in their support, but 50 percent of those who select a candidate say they might change their mind. Malloy gets a 50 8 percent favorability among likely Democratic voters, with 40 percent who haven t heard enough to form an opinion. Lamont s favorability is percent. One month before the primary, Foley has a huge lead over Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele and Oz Griebel. The governor s race is overshadowed by the Senate battle between Linda McMahon and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and the controversy over Foley s arrests is not having much impact, Dr. Schwartz said. So Foley has been unharmed and voters still don t know much about Fedele or Griebel. The race is closer on the Democratic side, where Malloy is within single digits. This race could go down to the wire. From July 7 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,367 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Also from July 7 13, Quinnipiac University conducted separate surveys of 668 Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 854 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed call (203) , or follow us on Twitter. 2

3 THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 854 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS 1REP. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Foley, Mike Fedele, or Oz Griebel? (If undecided q1rep) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Foley, Fedele, or Griebel? (This table includes "Leaners".) Foley 48% 52% 43% Fedele Griebel SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA aREP. (If express choice q1rep) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1REP... CAND CHOICE Q1REP Tot TF MF OG Made up 25% 22% 34% 30% Might change DK/NA REP. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 45% 50% 40% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED REP. Is your opinion of - Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 20% 23% 16% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED REP. Is your opinion of - Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 13% 15% 10% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

4 9REP. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a governor someone with years of political experience or a political outsider? Experience 32% 29% 36% Outsider DK/NA REP. If Mike Fedele is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 13% 15% 12% Get worse Stay the same DK/NA REP. If Tom Foley is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 26% 30% 22% Get worse Stay the same DK/NA REP. If Oz Griebel is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 12% 14% 9% Get worse Stay the same DK/NA REP. How much have you heard or read about the controversy regarding Tom Foley's two past arrests - a lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? A lot 10% 10% 11% Some Not much Nothing at all DK/NA

5 14REP. Does the controversy over Tom Foley's two past arrests make you more likely to vote for him in the Republican primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?... HeardQ13REP More likely 1% 1% 1% 2% Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA REP. Which one of the following do you think better describes how you feel about this controversy? Do you think Tom Foley's two past arrests are a legitimate campaign issue or is this a private matter?... HeardQ13REP Legitimate Issue 28% 27% 28% 34% Private matter DK/NA THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 668 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS 1DEM. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Malloy or Ned Lamont? (If undecided q1dem) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Malloy or Lamont? (This table includes "Leaners".) Malloy 37% 35% 38% Lamont SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA aDEM. (If express choice q1dem) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1DEM... CAND CHOICE Q1DEM Tot DM NL Made up 49% 48% 49% Might change DK/NA DEM. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 50% 53% 48% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

6 3DEM. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 60% 64% 56% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED DEM. Do you think Dan Malloy has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not? Yes 60% 64% 56% No DK/NA DEM. Would you say that Dan Malloy cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 61% 61% 61% No DK/NA DEM. Would you say that Dan Malloy is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 59% 63% 55% No DK/NA DEM. Would you say that Dan Malloy has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 62% 63% 62% No DK/NA DEM. Do you think Ned Lamont has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not? Yes 59% 63% 56% No DK/NA

7 9DEM. Would you say that Ned Lamont cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 67% 68% 67% No DK/NA DEM. Would you say that Ned Lamont is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 70% 73% 67% No DK/NA DEM. Would you say that Ned Lamont has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 70% 73% 67% No DK/NA DEM. Does Dan Malloy's experience as Mayor of Stamford make you more likely to vote for him in the Democratic primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? More likely 41% 45% 38% Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA DEM. Does Ned Lamont's experience as a businessman make you more likely to vote for him in the Democratic primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? More likely 31% 36% 27% Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA DEM. Does Ned Lamont's challenge of Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Senate election make you more likely to vote for Lamont in the Democratic primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? More likely 48% 53% 44% Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA

8 15DEM. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a governor someone with years of political experience or a political outsider? Experience 45% 43% 47% Outsider DK/NA DEM. If Dan Malloy is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 29% 30% 28% Get worse Stay the same DK/NA DEM. If Ned Lamont is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 37% 39% 35% Get worse Stay the same DK/NA THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,367 REGISTERED VOTERS TREND: (If registered Republican) If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Foley, Mike Fedele and Oz Griebel, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 Jan Foley Fedele Griebel Boughton na na na 4 6 Wright na na na 2 na Marsh na na na - na DeNardis na na na 2 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

9 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 Jan 21 Nov 10 Feb Lamont na Malloy Glassman na na na 4 4 na na Figueroa na na na 1 1 na na Marconi na na na na Amann na na na na LeBeau na na na na 2 2 na Bysiewicz na na na na na SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Lamont 45% 7% 84% 41% 39% 51% Foley SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan Lamont Foley SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Lamont 49% 12% 85% 46% 44% 53% Fedele SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

10 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan Lamont Fedele SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Lamont 49% 14% 85% 45% 43% 55% Griebel SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Malloy 44% 14% 76% 39% 39% 48% Foley SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan Malloy Foley SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 DK/NA If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Malloy 49% 16% 80% 47% 46% 52% Fedele SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

11 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan Malloy Fedele SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Malloy 51% 16% 82% 51% 49% 53% Griebel SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Dem Favorable 49% 26% 69% 50% 51% 48% 63% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED DEMS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Dem Favorable 41% 27% 50% 44% 45% 38% 50% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

12 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED DEMS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Rep Favorable 29% 42% 19% 28% 36% 23% 48% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: (If registered Republican) Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED REPS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of - Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Rep Favorable 12% 25% 2% 12% 16% 8% 24% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: (If registered Republican) Is your opinion of Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED REPS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

13 14. Is your opinion of - Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Rep Favorable 8% 17% 6% 6% 11% 6% 16% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: (If registered Republican) Is your opinion of Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED REPS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Very satisfied 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied Smwht dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Jul 15 Jun 10 Mar 18 Nov 10 Sep 16 Oct 21 Mar Very satisfied Smwht satisfied Smwht dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA How much have you heard or read about the controversy regarding Tom Foley's two past arrests - a lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? A lot 6% 7% 8% 3% 5% 6% Some Not much Nothing at all REFUSED

14 40. Does the controversy over Tom Foley's two past arrests make you more likely to vote for him for Governor in the general election in November, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? HeardQ39 More likely % - - Less likely No difference DK/NA Which one of the following do you think better describes how you feel about this controversy? Do you think Tom Foley's two past arrests are a legitimate campaign issue or is this a private matter? HeardQ39 Legitimate issue 29% 30% 31% 29% 26% 31% 37% Private matter DK/NA