CHHATTISGARH PRE-POLL SURVEY 2013 FINDINGS

Transcription

1 CHHATTISGARH PRE-POLL SURVEY 2013 FINDINGS Table 1a: Methodology of Pre Poll Survey Survey details Time period when survey was conducted Oct 13 - Oct 20 Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed 25 Number of Polling Stations surveyed 99* Number of respondents targeted 2500 Total respondents achieved (Sample size) 1861 *A total of 100 polling stations were sampled (four per Constituency) but the survey could not be conducted in one station. Table 1b: Sample profile Social Background Census 2011/2001 Pre Poll Survey 2013 Urban Women SC ST Muslim Christian Note: All figures are in percent; figures for Muslims and Christians from Census KEY FINDINGS You can also see the findings on the following link seats/ html

2 Table 2a: Estimated Votes for Assembly 2013: BJP gains, Cong declines Party 2008 (Actual) Oct 2013 (Estimate) Estimated Change since 2008 INC BJP BSP Others Note: All figures are in percent; Estimate for 2013 based on weighted data from pre poll survey. Question asked in the survey: If the Chhattisgarh assembly elections are held tomorrow then which party will you vote for? Please mark your preference on this sheet of paper and put it in the box. Table 2b: BJP voters a little less sure than Cong voters about their vote and may change preference My vote preference will.. Overall BJP voters INC voters Stay the same even on voting day Can change after seeing candidates Can t say Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for this question is Weighted data. Question asked in the survey: (If answered vote question) The party for which you just voted, are you going to vote for the same on the day of voting or your decision may change on seeing the candidates? Table 3: Pro-incumbency in Chhattisgarh almost as high as 2008 Should the ruling State govt. get another chance? 2008 BJP govt BJP govt. Yes No 26 25

3 Can t say/no opinion Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is Weighted data. Question asked in the survey: Do you think the current BJP government of Chhattisgarh should get another chance? Table 4a: Over two-thirds satisfied with the BJP government s performance Satisfaction level with State Government s performance 2008 BJP govt BJP govt. Satisfied Dissatisfied Can t say/no opinion Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is Weighted data. Question asked in the survey: What is your assessment of the work done by the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with it? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Table 4b: Development and food security were the main reasons cited by those who are satisfied with the govt. Reasons for satisfaction with the State govt. among those who are satisfied with it. Good governance and Development 30 Food security, cheap food grain 15

4 Better roads 5 More employment opportunities 4 Better power supply 3 Other smaller reasons 12 Can t say 31 Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: (If Fully satisfied or Somewhat satisfied) Why are you satisfied with the State BJP government? (Record answer and consult codebook later for coding) Table 4c: Food security law of Chhattisgarh govt. has benefitted many Does your household receive 35 kg food grain per month at highly Overall BPL households subsidized rates from the Government? Yes No 20 7 Question asked: Does your household receive 35 kg food grain per month at highly subsidized rates from the government? Table 5: Satisfaction with Raman Singh s performance as CM also continues to be very high Satisfaction level with CM s performance Satisfied Dissatisfied Can t say/no opinion Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is Weighted data.

5 Question asked in the survey: How would you assess the performance of Raman Singh as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh over the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) HOW IS CHHATTISGARH LIKELY TO VOTE? Table 6: Regional pattern Regions Mood North Chhattisgarh (34 seats) BJP ahead but Cong not far behind Central Chhattisgarh (43 seats) BJP comfortably ahead of Cong South Chhattisgarh (13 seats) BJP way ahead of Congress Note: Assessment based on pre poll survey; North Chhattisgarh includes districts of Koria, Surajpur, Balrampur, Sarguja, Jashpur, Raigarh, Korba, Bilaspur, Mungeli, and parts of Janjgir-Champa; Central Chhattisgarh includes a part of Raigarh, parts of Janjgir-Champa, Mahasamund, Balodbazar, Raipur, Gariyaband, Balod, Durg, Bemetara, Kabirdham, Rajnandgaon and parts of Dhamtari; South Chhattisgarh includes Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Bastar (Jagdalpur), Dantewada, Bijapur, Sukma and a part of Dhamtari. Table 7: Mood in Naxalism affected and non-naxalism affected areas Type of area Mood Naxalism affected areas On the whole BJP leads Congress Non-Naxalism affected BJP way ahead of Congress Note: Naxalism affected areas include the districts of Koria, Surajpur, Balrampur, Sarguja, Jashpur, Kabirdham, Rajnandgaon, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Bastar (Jagdalpur), Dantewada, Bijapur and Sukma. Table 8: Tribal vote: Gains and Losses compared to 2008 Tribes INC BJP Others

6 Gond Losing Losses Gains marginally Other ST Losses Gains Gains Note: Assessment based on weighted data from pre poll survey Table 9: Caste and community vote: Gains and Losses compared to 2008 Castes and Trend Communities Upper Caste BJP comfortably ahead of Cong and gaining; Cong has declined further Upper OBC BJP continues to be ahead of Cong comfortably Lower OBC BJP ahead and gaining since 2008; Cong has gone down further SC Cong recovers and ahead of BJP but still a close contest Note: Assessment based on weighted data from pre poll survey Table 10: Gap between BJP and Congress widest among first time voters Age group BJP INC years (first time voters) years years years years years Note: All figures are in percent; Rest voted for other parties. Sample size for vote preference question is Weighted data. LEADERSHIP Table 11a: Raman Singh most preferred choice for CM, particularly among Upper Castes

7 Chief Minister Preference (open ended question) Overall Upper Castes Raman Singh Ajit Jogi Charandas Mahant 2 1 Others Can t say Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: Who would you like to see as the next Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh? (Record name and consult codebook) Table 11b: Popularity of both Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi is down since 2008, but Raman is still way ahead of his main rival Year and Election PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER (open ended question) Raman Singh Ajit Jogi 2003 VS LS VS LS VS Note: All figures in Columns 2 and 3 are in percent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Figures from CSDS Surveys during Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Sample size in 2003 was 1406; Sample size in 2004 was 920; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2009 was 617; Sample size in 2013 is Weighted data. Question asked: Who would you like to see as the next Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh? (Record name and consult codebook)

8 Table 12: Even in direct face off question, Raman leads Jogi by a wide margin but gap narrows among STs and among SCs Jogi leads Raman or Jogi: Overall Upper SC ST Who should be CM? Caste Raman Singh Ajit Jogi None of the two Can t say Question asked: If you were to choose between Ajit Jogi and Raman Singh, whom would you prefer as the next chief minister of Chhattisgarh? Table 13a: More people agree than disagree with the statement that Congress has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves; sentiment stronger among traditional Congress supporters. Statement Congress party has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves Overall Traditional Congress supporters Agree Disagree No opinion Question asked: Now I will read out some statements relating to Congress leader Ajit Jogi. You tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the statements. (If agree then probe whether fully or somewhat, if disagree then probe fully or somewhat) a. Congress party has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves.

9 Table 13b: In the event of Cong coming to power, most want Jogi as CM; particularly Cong voters Who should be CM if Congress Overall INC voters BJP voters comes to power? Ajit Jogi Charandas Mahant Ravindra Choubey Someone else from Congress Can t say Question asked: If the Congress comes to power after the assembly election, then which Congress leader you would like to see as Chief Minister Ajit Jogi, Charandas Mahant, Ravindra Choubey or someone else? PARTY PERCEPTION Table 14: No difference between Cong and BJP, but BJP viewed as being much better for development Perception of parties INC BJP Both Neither No More corrupt opinion

10 More nepotistic More faction ridden Better for tackling Naxalism Better for Chhattisgarh s development All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: Now I will ask you to compare the two major parties of Chhattisgarh Congress and BJP. In your opinion which one of these parties is most a. Corrupt b. Nepotistic c. Faction ridden; And which of these parties is better for d.tackling naxalism e. Chhattisgarh s Devlopment GOVERNANCE AND OTHER ISSUES

11 Table 15a: Mixed assessment of Raman Singh s governance; rated negatively on health, transport law and order and irrigation fronts Over the last five years Improved Worsened Remained same Condition of roads in has Condition of govt. hospitals has Supply of electricity has Irrigation facilities Condition of govt. schools has Supply of drinking water has Public bus services Law and order situation has Employment generation has Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest had no opinion; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: Now I will read out few things. You tell me whether each of these has improved, worsened or remained same in your area during last five years of BJP government? Table 15b: 8 out of 10 say prices have increased in the last five years Over the last five years Increased Decreased Remained same Prices of essential commodities Corruption has Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest had no opinion; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: And what about these, have these increased, decreased or remained the same in the last five years? Table 16: No surprise then that price rise one of the most important election issues

12 Most important election issue Overall (open ended question) Development and governance of Chhattisgarh 11 Price rise 10 Employment 6 Condition of roads 4 Corruption 3 Farmers issues/problems 2 Food security 2 Water and electricity 1 Education and health 1 Naxalism 1 Other issues 15 Can t say 44 Question asked: While deciding whom to vote for in the upcoming Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, which will be the single most important election issue for you? (Record exactly and consult codebook later for coding Table 17: Naxalism not a top of the mind issue While voting in the upcoming assembly elections how important will the issue of Naxalism be for you? Overall Naxalism affected areas Very important Somewhat important Not at all important Can t say Question asked: While voting in the upcoming assembly elections how important will the issue of Naxalism be for you very important, somewhat important, not at all important?

13 STATE OR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT: WHO HAS A BETTER IMAGE? Table 18: Blame for price rise less on the State govt. and more on the Central govt. Which govt. is more responsible for price rise State Overall or Central? State govt. responsible 10 Central govt. responsible 19 Both responsible 39 Neither responsible 1 Can t say 31 Question: Which government do you think is more responsible for rising prices the Central government or your State government? Table 19: Both Central and State governments viewed as being equally corrupt Corruption rating Very Somewhat Not much Not at all No of Central and State corrupt corrupt corrupt corrupt opinion Governments INC-led UPA govt Chhattisgarh s BJP govt. Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; this question was asked separately for each government; Sample size is Weighted data. Questions: On the issue of corruption, what is your view about the current Congress led UPA Government. Is it- very corrupt, somewhat corrupt, very little corrupt or not at all corrupt? On the issue of corruption, what is your view about the current Raman Singh and BJP led

14 Chhattisgarh Government. Is it very corrupt, somewhat corrupt, very little corrupt or not at all corrupt? Table 20: Much greater satisfaction with BJP led State govt. than Cong led Central govt. Governments performance Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion INC-led UPA govt Chhattisgarh s BJP govt Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; this question was asked separately for each government; Sample size is Weighted data. Questions asked in the survey: What is your assessment of the work done by the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with it? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over the last four and half years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied). Table 21: Much greater satisfaction with CM s performance than PM s Leaders performance Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion Manmohan Singh as PM Raman Singh as CM Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; this question was asked separately for each leader; Sample size is Weighted data. Questions asked in the survey: How would you assess the performance of Raman Singh as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh

15 over the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) What is your assessment of the performance of Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister? Are you satisfied with his performance or dissatisfied? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Table 22: Most voters to vote looking at both State and Centre s performance Will vote looking at Overall State govt. s performance 22 Central govt. s performance 9 Both 33 Neither 5 No opinion 31 Question asked in the survey: Some people vote keeping in mind the performance of the state government while others vote keeping in mind the performance of the central government. While voting in the upcoming state assembly elections, whose performance will you consider the most? OTHER ISSUES Table 23: Level of complete satisfaction with BJP MLA s performance greater than with Cong MLA s performance MLA s performance INC MLA seats BJP MLA seats

16 in survey sample in survey sample Fully satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied 3 10 Fully dissatisfied No opinion Question asked in the survey: What is your opinion about the performance of the sitting MLA of your constituency? Would you say that you are satisfied or dissatisfied with her/his performance? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied). Table 24: BJP s yatra doing better than Cong s yatra Political Yatras Aware about it Came to my area BJP s Vikas Yatra Cong s Parivartan Yatra Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; rest were not aware/did not know which party s it is/said it did not come to their area; Sample size is Weighted data. Questions asked: Have you heard/read about the Vikas yatra? (If heard) Did this yatra come to your area? Have you heard/read about the Parivartan yatra? (If heard) Did this yatra come to your area? Table 25a: 6 out of 10 have heard of Naxal attack on Cong leaders Have you heard about the deadly Naxal attack on the convoy of the Congress leaders Overall Naxalism affected areas

17 Yes No Question asked: Have you heard about the deadly Naxal attack on the convoy of the Congress leaders? Table 25b: Divided blame for attack among those who have heard Whom do you hold responsible for this attack? Overall Naxalism affected areas Chhattisgarh Government Congress leaders for taking the route Both govt. and Cong leaders Naxals 11 9 Ajit Jogi 3 5 Can t say Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: ( If heard of the attack) Whom do you hold responsible for this attack Chhattisgarh Govt. for not providing ample security or the Congress leaders themselves for choosing the wrong route? Table 25c: Majority can t say if Cong will gain sympathy vote Do you think Congress will gain sympathy votes from this attack during the upcoming elections? Overall Naxal affected areas

18 Yes No Can t say Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: (If heard of the attack) Do you think Congress will gain sympathy votes from this attack during the upcoming elections? Table 26: Justice and dialogue is key to tackling Naxalism Naxal problem should be dealt with by Overall STs Naxal affected areas Deploying security forces in large numbers and use maximum force. By providing justice and addressing the grievances of Adivasis By pursuing the possibility of a ceasefire and dialogue with the Maoists Don t know Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; rest of the respondents had no opinion; Sample size is Weighted data. Question asked: Now I am going to read out three statements about Naxalism. Please tell me which statement do you agree with most? 1. Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by deploying security forces in large numbers and using maximum force. 2. Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by providing justice and addressing the grievances of Adivasis. so that they no longer have reason to support the Maoists. 3. Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by pursuing the possibility of a ceasefire and dialogue with the Maoists.