China s Place in Regional Calculations. Bonji Ohara The Tokyo Foundation. Quad-Plus Dialogue Jaipur, India February 14-16, 2016

Transcription

1 China s Place in Regional Calculations Bonji Ohara The Tokyo Foundation Quad-Plus Dialogue Jaipur, India February 14-16, 2016 When considering the position of China in the Asia-Pacific region, we first have to understand the real situation concerning China. We often hear the phrase Power Shift. But it is just an image. The so-called Rise of China causes the image of a Power Shift. But the meaning of the phrase Rise of China is not clear, either. Power can be exercised when the actor has enough resources. Examples of actors include nation states, institutions, terrorists and others. The actor who has intention and capability can exercise Power by causing others to act as it expects. Sources of Power consist of Political Influence, Military Forces, Economy and Culture etc. We are considering Chinese capability in terms of Political Influence, Military Forces and Economy when we say that China is a rising power. We have already understood that we need to analyze the real power of China. We cannot deal with issues concerning China, if we do not understand its power and the situation. The basic condition of the Rise of China is its economic development. China stagnated for more than two decades under the rigid planned economy policy decided by Mao Zedong, who led China s Communist Party and ruled the People s Republic of China. But China has 1

2 the world's fastest-growing economy now and is undergoing what has been described as a second industrial revolution. 1 China has enjoyed a high rate of GDP growth starting in the 1980s. In proportion to its economic development, China s defense budget has also risen. China is spending enormous sums of money on modernized weapons. On May 5th, China announced a 10.1 percent rise in its national defense budget in China insisted that it was the lowest growth in five years as the country confronts mounting pressure in the face of an economic slowdown. But 10.1 percent is a high rate compared with Chinese economic growth. The Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, registering the weakest annual expansion in more than two decades. The government set the 2015 growth target to approximately 7 percent, generating new concerns that the world's economic driving force is losing steam. Chinese leadership is using the phrase New Normal for explaining China s economic situation. Threat consists of Capability and Intention. China is increasing its military capability. This truth raises the tension between the U.S. and China, because the U.S. and international community led by the U.S. cannot trust China s Peaceful Rise despite China insisting that is its intention. China insists that it has legitimacy to build international rules and influence the world order after World War II, because China was one of the victors in that war. But China could not take the initiative. China recognized that Western countries, especially the U.S., decided international rules and built the world order. But China now has the power to challenge a present world order undergoing many conflicts, and which China sees as unfair to its interests. 3 China has already declared that it will build a new type of international relations featuring 1 China profile - full overview, BBC News, January 21, 2016, 2 China 2015 defense budget to grow 10.1 pct, lowest in 5 years, Xinhua Net, March 5, 2015, 3 中国是国际和地区秩序的维护者 建设者和贡献者 在第四届世界和平论坛午餐会上的演讲 中国外交部, June 27, 2015, For English, see Full Text: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi s Luncheon Speech at the 4th World Peace Forum, Xinhua Net, June 28, 2015, 2

3 win-win cooperation and advance the noble cause of global peace and development. 4 seems to be an expression of China s intention to change the world order. It We have already seen China s challenge to change the world order through actions in various fields. AIIB is one of these challenges. But this did not seem to be a big problem, because the force which China used was not military, but economic. Actually, many countries are not satisfied with the present international order. But they are trying to achieve maximum interest within the present world order, because they do not have enough power to change the order. Every country has a right to raise questions about the present rules in the international order, but not by violence. The basic rule is that any actor must not attempt to change the status quo by force. Although it takes long time, actors must try to solve problems by discussion. It seems that China is violating this basic rule. The U.S. National Military Strategy 2015 mentions Russia, Iran, North Korea and China as actors which are attempting to revise key aspects of the international order and are acting in a manner that threatens national security interests. 5 The report said: We support China s rise and encourage it to become a partner for greater international security. But the report also said China s actions are adding tension to the Asia-Pacific region. For example, its claims to nearly the entire South China Sea are inconsistent with international law. The international community continues to call on China to settle such issues cooperatively and without coercion. China has responded with aggressive land reclamation efforts that will allow it to position military forces astride vital international sea lanes. The question is: why is China acting in this manner? The origin of the reason why China 4 习近平阅兵讲话全文 ( 双语 + 视频 ) 中国日报网, September 3, 2015, For English, see: Full text: Xi s speech at commemoration of 70th anniversary of war victory, Chinadaily.com.cn, September 3, 2015, 5 U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015, June 2015, 3

4 is challenging the international order is that China needs to further economic development. The purpose of Chinese leadership is for China s Communist Party to maintain a long and stable rule. The biggest problem which the Chinese leadership worries about is the destabilization of Chinese society. If the Chinese people cannot believe in the promise of economic prosperity, Chinese society will lose its stability. These fears of the Chinese leadership seem to be coming true. The Chinese economy has many problems now. China needs economic reform to continue development, because of the economic slowdown. Of course the Chinese government is taking some economic policy action, but there is no easy cure-all for any economic ills. It means the Chinese leadership must take measures other than economic for making people believe in China s continuous development. Some Chinese scholars said that the military parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of victory in World War II could act as an opportunity to stabilize Chinese society. The Chinese leadership recognized that the military parade could be influential. The parade had two purposes. The first was to emphasize that China was a victor in World War II, which adjusted China s position in the international community. President Xi Jinping tried to reach this first goal by holding a military parade in which the international community celebrated the victory. Foreign political leaders came to pay their respects to President Xi before the parade and President Xi and First Lady Peng Liyuan greeted them at the end of a red carpet. President Xi being at the center of foreign political leaders and high ranking officials on the Tiananmen rostrum at the parade showed that China had legitimacy to be a leader in the international community. The second purpose was to show China s capability to change the present international order, which it deems unfair. The weapons exhibited in the parade were a signal that the U.S. could be prevented from attacking China. China recognizes that the U.S. could interfere with China s development and its challenge to the present international order by using every measure, including military operations. Therefore China feels that it must check U.S. military influence, in order to continue its own development. China aims to emphasize its legitimacy and capability to build a New Type of International Relationship which is advantageous to China. We could say the audience of the military parade as a spectacle was really the Chinese people. 4

5 China has been developing modernized military equipment while enjoying high economic growth for about two decades. But China s military capability still lags behind the U.S. even now. This means that the Chinese leadership has a serious dilemma. The Chinese leadership must show its people China s capability to exclude the U.S. military from operating close to China, but actually China does not have the capability. China s reclamation and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea raises tension between the U.S. and China. Although China says its purpose is the preservation of its economic development, the U.S. and international community led by U.S. cannot accept China s activity. The U.S. wants China to stop its provocative operations concerning artificial islands in the South China Sea. China wants to maintain a stable situation, but on the contrary, China s activities causes confrontation with the U.S. The U.S. and international community also have controversial problems. We have already understood that the Chinese economy is still leading the world s economy. We have already seen the situation of Chinese economic deterioration having a huge influence on the world stock market. On the other hand, the U.S. and international community recognize that China is taking provocative actions against them, and consider dealing with China in a strong manner. But the U.S. hesitates to use military force to respond to Chinese action, because the U.S. does not want to lose business opportunities concerning China. Given this controversial situation, we have to balance two different measures at the same time. One is showing China the intention to not accept a Chinese challenge to change the international order. Another is reducing China s sense of impending crisis. The international community does not have a world police force. This situation is quite different from a domestic situation. People in a nation state must share the common sense of justice and fairness, because nation states each have domestic laws and regulations to define them. And every nation state has law enforcement agencies, including police, which enforce laws and regulations. A nation state also can punish people who violate laws. On the contrary, actors including nation states in the international community cannot share the common sense of justice and fairness. Only when actors agree with a treaty or an agreement do they have to observe those regulations. But some countries are dissatisfied 5

6 with international laws, treaties and rules. Usually, they pursue maximizing their national interests within international regulations and rules, because they do not have enough capability otherwise to challenge the international order. Only rising powers like China can mount such a challenge. If a rising power feels that international rules are not fair to it and challenges the present international order, the international community does not have the organization to prevent such a challenge. Actors such as nation states can only show their intention by using their own forces, because there is no world police. Japan, the U.S., Australia and other countries who want to prevent China from taking provocative action in the Asia- Pacific region, including the South China Sea, need to use their military forces to show their intention if China will not stop its challenge. Many say that the U.S. influence on the Asia-Pacific region is in decline, even though the U.S. has declared the pivot to Asia. Balance of power is relative. The U.S. cannot deal with challenges to the international order by itself. The international community must consider a networked security cooperation. The U.S. has many allies and friends in the international community. The allies of the U.S. must be the core of the network. China is increasing its A2/AD tactical capability for excluding U.S. naval operations from waters near to China. It is getting difficult for the U.S. Navy to operate close to the Chinese mainland. Nevertheless, there are U.S. allies within the region in which China tries to refuse the U.S. Navy access. These are Japan and South Korea. And Australia can approach China from a different direction than the U.S. Navy. They have to cooperate to show their intention. But their goal must not be a war with China. Neither the U.S. nor China want to go to war with each other. Although the U.S. can win a war against China, the war would inflict huge damage on the world economy. The international community needs China to develop its economy and to become a partner for greater international security. We have already understood that it is difficult to change China s opinion about the fairness of international rules. And it is not easy to prevent China from taking provocative action in this region, if China does not change that opinion. 6

7 China has an image of U.S. - China confrontation. If countries want to change the image, then they need to change the structure of the power balance between two major powers. But a unipolar system in the region does not have validity. China is developing its capability even now. Then we have to consider a new actor in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan, Australia and South Korea cannot be a third major actor, because China recognizes that they are allies of the U.S. European countries and the European Union have power, but they recognize China as a market or a business partner. As Joseph S. Nye Jr. mentioned, threat perception relates to distance. 6 It is difficult for European countries to share the sense of impending crisis with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Southeast Asian countries must be the third actor. Individual countries do not have enough influence to change the situation, but China cannot ignore Southeast Asian countries if they can unify. We have already understood that ASEAN and ASEAN Regional Forum cannot take concrete measures when it comes to dealing with security issues, because it is difficult to reach agreement from all of the participants. Southeast Asian countries have to build a more flexible cooperative framework. It must be based on a business network. Southeast Asian countries already have the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The U.S. and international community led by the U.S. have to support AEC in creating a large-scale market in the region. Japan, the U.S., Australia and India can provide capacity building for Southeast Asian countries at the same time as creating business opportunities in the region. Southeast Asian countries can quickly develop military or law enforcement capability jointly with economic development, if they can introduce interoperability through common products. Japan, the U.S., Australia and India each have a relationship with Southeast Asian countries. And they each have strong assets in technology and business. South East Asian countries can be selective about what they want. The framework must not exclude any actors from this business network. If Southeast Asian countries have enough influence when they consult with other actors about business, we can prevent any actors from challenging the international rules. 6 Joseph S. Nye Jr., and David A. Welch, Understanding Global Conflict and Cooperation: An Introduction to Theory and History, 9 th Edition, (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson, 2012). 7

8 A triangle arrangement can keep the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. The balance is not simple confrontation. Every power must consider two other powers. The key factor in this idea is that Southeast Asian countries lead the initiative. The third power must be the leadership of the Southeast Asian region. Economic development always provides sources of power to countries and stable conditions to regional society. Therefore countries must consider how to develop economies in the Asia- Pacific region first. 8