Trade Cooperation and Economic Policy Reform in South Asia The Cases of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri-Lanka (working title)

Transcription

1 Trade Cooperation and Economic Policy Reform in South Asia The Cases of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri-Lanka (working title) Draft Country Study Outline: Introduction (1 page) PART ONE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC POLICY REFORMS Ch 1: Experiences with Policy Reforms since 1990 (10 pages) Ch 2: Changes in Patterns of Regional and International Trade (15 pages) PART TWO: POLICY REFORMS, REGIONAL TRADE COOPERATION AND DYNAMIC COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE -- ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION Ch 3: Determinants of Case Country s Revealed Comparative Advantage (10 pages) Ch 4: Determinants of Case Country s Export Demand (10 pages) Ch 5: Potential for Trade Creation within South Asia (10 pages) Concluding Remarks and Regional Research Agenda (3 pages) Annexes: -Data Tables -Estimated Parameters -Bibliography Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 1 Revised Draft August 29,2002

2 Trade Cooperation and Economic Policy Reform Country Case Study Outline (working title) Introduction. Across South Asia economic policy reforms were to accelerate growth by enhancing the countries internal and external competitiveness. To what extent did trade performance of South Asian countries improve? To what extent have opportunities for regional trade and investment cooperation materialized in the more liberal post-reform context? Did increased FDI inflows materialize? What will be the implications for the next ten years? Country case studies for Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will be undertaken. 1 The country case study will include two parts. The first part will take stock of economic policy reforms undertaken since the mid 1990s and the changes in the regional and global trade patterns, drawing on recent research publications, gray literature as well as primary and secondary data for the country studied. The second part will be prospective and provide quantitative and qualitative assessments of the scope for regional trade cooperation in the liberalized post-reform context. PART ONE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC POLICY REFORMS Chapter 1 Experiences with Policy Reforms since the 1990s (10 pages maximum) provides a descriptive analysis of the measures implemented under the adjustment programmes since the early 1990s addressing questions of external competitiveness of the countries in South Asia related to Liberalization of domestic goods and services markets, focusing in particular on eliminating price and quantitative restrictions on inputs for export-oriented industries and international services providers; Privatization (reducing public equity and public investment) in the production of goods and services and its impact on export-oriented industries and external competitiveness; Opening up to foreign producers and suppliers through (i) reduction of tariffs and nontariff barriers (ii) investment promotion measures agreements and facilitation (iii) investment promotion measures including transparency and rule-based system; and Financial sector liberalization including measures to ensure greater exchange rate flexibility, improved financial sector supervision and. The policy regimes of the early 1990s will be contrasted to that today (2002), combining both qualitative and quantitative indicators of the policy regimes. A matrix table laying out the economic, institutional, financial as well as legal changes will be elaborated, covering (at least) the five key components of economic policy reforms as indicated in Table 1. A snapshot needs 1 Further documentation will be assembled from secondary sources on the other South Asian countries, i.e. Bhutan and Maldives. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 2 Revised Draft August 29,2002

3 to be provided for the pre-reform situation in 1990, followed by a description of the changes in the period (distinguishing five year periods). Commentary will be furnished as to the pace and sequence of the reform programmes. Further possible discrepancies between the announced implementation and the actual implementation of the reforms will be highlighted. A set of descriptive indicators of the reform policies will be provided, following the format as indicated in Table 2. In effect this table will indicates for each of the five components of the reform programmes the changes over the three periods of the quantitative or qualitative indicators for these components (see Table 2). Table 1 Characterizing Policy Reforms in South Asia Comparing and Contrasting the Experiences of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri-Lanka Liberalization of Domestic Markets Privatization of domestic production and trade Opening up to Foreign Trade Opening up to Foreign Direct Investment Financial Sector and Capital Market Reform Initial Conditions: Indicators of Policy Regime (Qualitative and Quantitative) Status by 1990 Implementation of Main Policy Reform Measures Post 2000* Sources: National Policy Documents; World Bank Reviews Table 2 Descriptive Indicators of Economic Policy Reforms Experiences of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri-Lanka Licensing requirements for trade & business ventures; foreign exchange regulations IPOs and public equity holdings; Public monopolies; State Trading Regulations Nr of Banned and Restricted Commodities; Informal Trade Changes; Nominal/Effecti ve Protection rates FDI approvals; FDI inflows; Nr and type of FDI restrictions Real interest rates; Real effective exchange rates; Banking & Insurance Licenses; Post 2000* *) to include implementation schedules for announcements of agreed measures Sources to be examined: National Policy Documents; National Statistics; WTO Trade Policy Reviews, World Bank and IMF reports; Research Studies. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 3 Revised Draft August 29,2002

4 Chapter 2 Changes in Patterns of Regional and International Trade (15 pages maximum) will take stock of the changes in the structure and the patterns of regional and international trade in goods as well as international trade in services which have emerged since In particular this will require descriptive indicators, based on national statistical data sources such as used by Mukherji and Kemal in Srinivasan, 2002 as well as other SANEI studies (see bibliography attached). One key objective of the research is to create a South Asia-wide trade and investment database, which will be made available to other researchers through the TRACE website The commodity disaggregation (HS-classification) should be as follows 2 digits for Sections I V (agriculture and mineral products, chapters 01-27) and at least 4 digits (preferably more) for Sections VI-XVIII (manufactured products, chapters 28-92). The other sections XIX to XXI can be aggregated at 2 digit levels. For each of the Sections only values in excess of 1 million US dollars will be reported hence, a residual category other will comprise the smaller values. The data should be accessible as an Excel spread sheet. The regional aggregation will be in seven groups as follows (i) each of the other SAARC countries (6 maximum), (ii) European Union countries, (iii) United States, (iv) Japan, (v) ASEAN (vi) China and (vii) Rest of the World. For the above commodity/region classification the following variables will be compiled: 1. First, values in local currency and US dollars, volumes and unit prices of imports and exports of trade in goods and services on an annual basis by product as well as by origin/destination. 2. Second, trends in unit values of exports and imports (at HS four digit levels for commodities traded within South Asia, with a cut-off point of 1 mln US dollars). 3. Third, changes in the levels of nominal and effective protection for selected traded goods will be calculated using weighted average tariff levels (including commitment under the Uruguay Round) as well as changes in the structure and importance of nontariff barriers. 4. Fourth, changes in the real exchange rates between the countries within the South Asian region and vis-à-vis the major OECD economies will be implemented. Using the above four sets of variables will allow the computation of a further four indicators characterizing the trade policy regime (regional trade balances, relative exchange rates, terms of trade and nominal and effective protection). Subject to the availability of suitable shadow prices for factors and inputs, the Domestic Resource Costs (DRCs) will be computed. Detailed institutional analysis of qualitative changes in the trade regime will also be undertaken, in particular with respect to: Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 4 Revised Draft August 29,2002

5 the reduction of non-tariff barriers, in particular rules of origin, state trading, license requirements, export credit and finance requirements, technical standards, sanitary and phyto-sanitary requirements, environmental requirements and social standards; 2 the importance of physical as well as non-physical trade infra-structure. The summary findings will be presented in formats such as Table 3, whereas the detailed trade flow data will be made available in electronic format (excel spreadsheets). 3 The resulting database of dimensions Regions-by Commodities-by-Year will provide the starting point for the analysis of Part Two. By region r, year t and product i: Exports Imports Endogenous: Values X rit M rit Nominal Growth; Trade Balance Table 3 Characterizing Trade Performance in South Asia Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka Exch. Rates R rt Relative Exch. Rates Volume Unit Value Tariff NTBs Tariff Equivalent of NTBs X / QX rit rit QM rit rit Real growth M / QX rit rit Terms of Trade XT QM rit rit MT NTB rit NTB rit β x βm XT rit MT rit Nominal and Effective Protection/Domestic Resource Cost Analysis PART TWO: POLICY REFORMS, REGIONAL TRADE COOPERATION AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE -- ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION Chapter 3 Determinants of South Asia s Revealed Comparative Advantage (max 10 pages) will use the above indicators as the building blocks for an analysis of the determinants of (revealed) comparative advantage for the South Asian countries. Revealed Comparative Advantage. In view of the extensive research already undertaken by Kemal et al. published in Srinivasan (2002) only data will be computed for years subsequent to 1995 onwards Kemal et al. present this index for the period for the five South Asian countries. This will allow us to chart changes over time of the revealed comparative advantages 2 Other relevant changes may be found in the area of trade facilitation (customs procedures, government procurement, financing procedures and pre-shipment inspections). 3 SPSS or SAS data-series formats may also be used. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 5 Revised Draft August 29,2002

6 and to identify whether these may be correlated to the changes in the trade-regimes during the 1990s as described above. 4 The following hypothesis will be accepted or rejected (e.g. through a correlation matrix or regression analysis): Sectors/commodities for which the nominal/effective protection levels declined did improve their revealed comparative advantage. Possible acceptance or rejection of this hypothesis (for specific commodities) will have to be motivated. A discussion of other main determinants in the change of revealed comparative advantage may be included in the discussion of the results (for example, reduced protection levels on major inputs for exported commodities). Moreover, for certain commodities a substantial unrecorded or illegal cross-border trade takes place within South Asia, especially between India and Bangladesh (see bibliographical footnote). 5 Hence, it will be assessed whether the indicator for revealed comparative advantage may be biased (downwards or upwards) because the recorded trade data understate the importance of unrecorded or illegal cross-border trade in particular with India and possibly also with other South Asian countries. Finally, a mapping between the indicators for domestic resource costs, indicating comparative advantage in the economic sense, and the RCA will be made. Again this may indicate the possible discrepancy between feasible and actual trade patterns. Chapter 4 Determinants of South Asia s Export Demand (max 10 pages) will use the above indicators for an in-depth analysis of the determinants of export demand for the South Asian countries. First, a brief critical review of quantitative estimates of export demand as reported in model studies for the country concerned (if available) will be presented. Second, the relevance of the gravity model for explaining regional trade within South Asia will be assessed. The gravity model explains trade flows by relating them to very basic variables, in particular national incomes and population in both the supplying and importing countries, as well as physical distance between them. 6 Hence, these models tend to abstract from price and cost factors, although they can also be brought into the econometric specification. The gravity model for trade between regions r1 and r2 may be represented as follows: 4 Values for the index of revealed comparative advantage will be reported with a cut-off point of 0.1 only. 5 See Bakht (1996) for India BGD; Alam (1995) India-BGD; Banerjee (1999) India -BGD; Chaudhari (1995) India- BGD; Nisha (1999) South Asia; Pohit (2002) India-BGD-Nepal; Rahman (1998a) India- BGD; Rahman (1997) India-BGD; Rao (1997) India-BGD; Rahman and Razzaque (2002) for India-BGD and Sen (1999) BGD. A further paper by Pohit and Taneja researches into India-Sri Lanka and India-Nepal unrecorded trade. 6 A full discussion of the most appropriate econometric specification of the gravity model is provided by Matyas in The World Economy, Vol. 20, No.3, pp , Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 6 Revised Draft August 29,2002

7 u 2 ln Xr1r2t = α r1+ γr2 + λ t + β1 ln Yr1+ β 2 ln Yr 2 + β 3DISTr1r r1 r t where Xr r2t 1 is the volume of exports from the case study country r1 to country r2 at time t; Yr is the GDP in country r1 and r2 for time t DIST is the distance between the country s r1 and r2 The parameter a represents the local country effect whereas the parameters? and? respectively represent the target country effect and the business cycle effect. These parameters reflect the effects influencing the volume of exports, beyond those explained by GDP, distance, etc. (see Matyas for a detailed discussion). The hypothesis to be examined is whether the gravity model for South Asian countries does result in comparatively large values for the target parameters. This would be an indication of integration. However, low values indicate that the integration effect is weak. 7 Further analysis with the same specification may be undertaken to explain the country s trade flows with (some) of the other regions such as EU, USA, etc. Do the results allow us to provide a first indication of the potential gains from trade within the region which have not been realized to date? Chapter 5 Potential for Trade Creation and Diversion (max 10 pages) will assess the potential for trade creation and trade diversion in case of accelerated liberalization within South Asia. First, a critical review will be undertaken of any assessment of this issue for the case study country concerned (see bibliographical footnote). 8 This will include a discussion of priceelasticities of import demand by sector/commodity (where available). Second, the unit values for the main traded commodities will be compared with those of main competing countries within the region as well as those of the other regions in the database. These values will be compared to the world level unit values for traded commodities as prepared by the UNCTAD-ITC (these are available at the HS 2 digit level). Third, the scope for trade creation will be estimated, assuming preferential zero tariffs within South Asia as well as a complete elimination of all non-tariff barriers reviewed above. For some of the sectors a quantitative estimate will be possible, taking into the account the current trade flows, the elimination of tariff as well as the tariff-equivalent impact of NTBs and the approximate values of the import elasticities of importing countries within the region. 7 Preliminary cross-sectional estimates for India-Bangladesh trade have been undertaken for 1994, see Kabir Hasan Athukorala (1998) South Asia; Mukerji (2002) South Asia; Bhuiyan (1996) BGD; CPD (2000a) BGD; Chadha (2002) India; Chaudhary (2001) Pakistan; Jayasuriya (2002) South Asia; Kemal (2002) South Asia; Lall (1995) South Asia; Lama (2000) South Asia; Mehta (1997) South Asia; Mehta (2001) India-Sri Lanka; Mukherji (1998a) India-BGD; Mukherji (1998b) India-Nepal; Mukherji (2000) India-Sri Lanka; Mukherji (2002) South Asia; Panagarya (2001) South Asia; Pigato et al. (1997) South Asia; Pitagala (2001) South Asia; Pursell (2001, 2002) South Asia; Rahman (1996) South Asia; Rahman (1998a, b ) BGD; SACEPS (2002) South Asia; Srinivasan (1993a, b,1994, 2002) South Asia; Srinivasan (1998b) India; Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 7 Revised Draft August 29,2002

8 Fourth, the likelihood of trade diversion will assessed, in view of similarity of import flows from other South Asian countries as well as from the other regions in the database. Fifth, a qualitative assessment of likely impact of elimination on non-tariff barriers on international trade in services. 9 It will be identified which further statistical information would be required in order to provide a preliminary quantitative estimate of the possibilities for trade in services by the country under review. Implications for improvements of the statistical reporting within the sector will be spelled out. Concluding Remarks and Regional Research Agenda In response to accelerated and significant liberalization in tariff, non-tariff barriers as well as withdrawal of restrictions on FDI inflows, the concluding remarks will address three questions in particular: 1. On the basis of the above analysis, which preliminary conclusions may be drawn regarding likely shifts in dynamic comparative advantage within South Asia? 2. What new patterns of outward processing and international production networks may emerge as a consequence of the planned introduction of the SAFTA? 3. What are the implications regarding the complementarity and/or overlap between bilateral, regional and multilateral agenda s of trade liberalization? Here one thinks in particular of ongoing bilateral free trade agreements (India-Sri Lanka; Sri Lanka- Pakistan, etc.) of trade cooperation initiatives under SAPTA 10 and of course those within the context of the WTO (Doha Development Round, Basic Telecom Agreement, GATS, ITA, Government Procurement, etc.)? 9 The GATS classification of 11 main service sectors will be used including business services, communications, constructions, distribution, education, environment, finance, health, tourism, recreation and transport. 10 The SAFTA regime has not yet been launched, although its time-table had been accelerated to commence in Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 8 Revised Draft August 29,2002

9 Bibliography on Trade Cooperation and Economic Policy Reform in South Asia since the mid 1990s (English publications only). Ahluwalia, Isher J. and I.M.D. Little (eds.), (2001) India s Economic Reforms and Development: Essays for Manmohan Singh, Oxford University Press, New Delhi. Akash, M.M. (1997), Transit Facilities for India: Past Experience and Future Prospects, report prepared for Dhaka Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka. Alam, N., and Forrest Cookson, (1995), Cross Border Trade with India, Report prepared for the Asian Development Bank. Athukorala, P., (1995), Foreign Direct Investment and Manufacturing for Exports in a new Export ing Country: The Case of Sri Lanka, The World Economy, Vol 18, No. 4, pp Athukorala, P., (1998), Trade Policy Issues in Asian Development, Routledge, London. Athukorala, P. and S.K. Jayasuriya, (2000), Trade Policy Reforms and Industrial Adjustment in Sri Lanka, The World Economy, Vol 23, No. 1, pp Athukorala, P. and S.Rajapatirana, (2000), Liberalisation and Industrial Transformation: Sri Lanka in International Perspective, Oxford University Press, Oxford and New Delhi. Bakht, Zaid, (1996), Cross-border Illegal Trade in Bangladesh: Composition, Trends and Policy Issues, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Dhaka, presented at ESCAP-UNDP Network of Trade-Related Research Institutes in Asia and the Pacific, Nepal Institute of Development Studies, October Bakht, Zaid, (1998), Trade Liberalization, Exports and Growth of Manufacturing Industries in Bangladesh (mimeo), Bangladesh Institute for Development Studies. Banerjee, P., S. Hazarika, M. Hussain and R. Sammaddar, (1999), Indo-Bangladesh Cross-Border and Trade, Economic and Political Weekly, Sept 4, pp Begum, Shamsad and Abul F.M. Shamsuddin (1998), Exports and Economic Growth in Bangladesh, Journal of Development Studies, vol. 35, pp Bhattacharya, B., and P. Pal, (1998), Trade-Related Joint Ventures between India and Bangladesh Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), New Delhi. Bhattacharya, Debapriya, 2002, Outcome of the WTO Doha Ministerial and Implications for Bangladesh, pp 1-8, paper presented at BIDS Seminar on Bangladesh: Development Challenges and Opportunities Bhuiyan, A.R., (1996), Outlook and Prospects under SAPTA in Bangladesh: International Dynamics and External Linkages, Dhaka. Board of Investment, (1996), Sri Lanka Investment Policy and Incentives, Government of Sri Lanka, Colombo. Board of Investment, (1998), Guide to Investment in Bangladesh, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka. Board of Investment, (1998), Pakistan: Investment Policies, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Centre for Policy Dialogue, (1997), Future of the Textiles and Ready Made Garments Sector, CPD Dialogue Report No. 4, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka. Centre for Policy Dialogue, (1999a), Policy Reform: The Need for A New Consensus, CPD Dialogue Report No. 8, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 9 Revised Draft August 29,2002

10 Centre for Policy Dialogue, (2000a), SAARC: Present and Future, CPD Dialogue Report No. 25, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka. Centre for Policy Dialogue, (2001b), Changes and Challenges: A Review of Bangladesh s Development 2000, Dhaka- University Press Limited. Centre for Policy Dialogue, (2002a), Regional Cooperation in the Energy Sector, CPD Dialogue Report No. 42, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka. Centre for Policy Dialogue, (2002c), Post Doha Consultation, CPD Dialogue Report No. 46, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka. Chadha, Rajesh, (1998), Analysis of India s Policy Reforms, World Economy, March. Chadha, Rajesh and Sanjib Pohit, (1998), Rationalising Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers on Trade: Sectoral Impact on Indian Economy, Report for the Tariff Commission, Government of India. Chadha, Rajesh, Sanjib Pohit, Alan V. Deardorff and Robert Stern, (1998), The Impact of Trade and Domestic Policy Reforms in India: A CGE Modelling approach, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor. Chadha, Rajesh, (1999a), GATS and Developing Countries; A Case Study of India, Paper presented at the NCAER-World Bank WTO 2000 South Asia Workshop, NCAER, New Delhi. Chadha, Rajesh, (1999a), Phasing Out the Multi-Fibre Arrangement: Implications for India, Paper presented at the Second Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, June, Copenhagen. Chadha, Rajesh, (2002), The Impact of Changing Global Trade Policies on India, pp , in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Chaudhary, Mohammad Aslam and M. Saleem, (2001), Comparative Advantage, Complementarity, Market Diversification and Trade Instability: A Case Study of Pakistan, Journal of Economic Integration, Seoul. Chaudhary, Mohammad Aslam and K.Abe, (2001), The Changing Pattern of Trade and Economic Relations in Pakistan, Japan and ASEAN: A Comparative Analysis, Economic Journal of the Chiba University, Chaudhari, S.K. (1995), Cross-border Trade Between India and Bangladesh, NCAER Working Paper No. 58, New Delhi. Confederation of Indian Industries, CII, (1995), Non-Tariff Barriers in SAARC Countries, CII, New Delhi. Cookson, Forest E., (2002), Overview of Sub-regional Economic Cooperation in Cookson, Forest E., and AKM Shamsul Alam (eds.), (2002), Towards Greater Sub-regional Economic Cooperation -- Limitations,Obstacles and Benefits. University Press Limited, Dhaka. Cookson, Forest E., and AKM Shamsul Alam (eds.), (2002a), Towards Greater Sub-regional Economic Cooperation -- Limitations,Obstacles and Benefits. University Press Limited, Dhaka. Cookson, Forest E and AKM Shamsul Alam., (2002b), Sub-regional Economic Cooperation: Prospects and Problems in Cookson, Forest E., and AKM Shamsul Alam (eds.), (2002), Towards Greater Sub-regional Economic Cooperation -- Limitations,Obstacles and Benefits. University Press Limited, Dhaka. Das, Samantak, Subir Gokarn and Sanjib Pohit, (2001), Logistics and Regulatory Barriers to Indo-Bangladesh Trade, Report for the World Bank, National Council for Applied Economic Research, New Delhi. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 10 Revised Draft August 29,2002

11 Dowlah, C.A.F., The Future of the Ready Made Clothing Industry of Bangladesh in the Post-Uruguay Round, The World Economy, vol. 22, nr 7. pp Dreze, Jean and Amartya Sen, (1995), India: Economic Development and Social Opportunity, Oxford University Press, New Delhi. Dubey, Muchkund, (1995), India-Bangladesh Economic Relations, Indo-Bangladesh Dialogue on Economic and Trade Cooperation, November, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka. Edwards, Sebastian (1998), Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know? The Economic Journal, Vol. 108, March, pp ESCAP, (1998), Foreign Direct Investment in Selected Asian Countries: Policies, Related Institution building and Regional Cooperation, United Nations Economic and Social Committee for Asia and Pacific, New York. ESCAP, (1999), Trade and Investment Policy Scenarios and Liberalization Agenda for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Economic and Social Committee for Asia and Pacific, New York. Eusufzai, Z. (2000), Liberalisation in the Shadow of a Large Neighbour: The Case of Bangladesh-India Economic Relations, Centre for Policy Dialogue-University Press Limited, Dhaka. Also published Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, USA. EXIM Bank of India, (1999), Transaction Costs of Indian Exports: An Analysis, Working Paper No 104. Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, (FNCCI), (1999), Foreign Investment in Nepal, FNCCI Kathmandu. Fonseka, T., (1999), Sri Lankan Apparel Industry: Challenges and Prospects, (mimeo), Colombo. Forhad, Shilpi, (1998), Policy Incentives and Comparative Advantage of Bangladesh Agriculture, Working Paper, The World Bank (August). Guha, Ashok and Amit S. Ray, (2002), Multinational versus Expatriate FDI: A Comparative Analysis of the Chinese and Indian Experience, pp in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Hassan M. Kabir (1997), Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Export Growth in Applied Economics, Hassan M. Kabir (2002), Trade with India and Trade Policies of Bangladesh in Cookson, Forest E., and AKM Shamsul Alam (eds.), (2002), Towards Greater Sub-regional Economic Cooperation -- Limitations,Obstacles and Benefits. University Press Limited, Dhaka. Hossain, A and Selim Rashid, (1998), The Political Economy of Bangladesh s Large and Growing Deficit with India (mimeo). Hossain, A., (1996), Real Exchange Rate Behaviour and Policy in Bangladesh , University Press Limited, Dhaka. Jayasuriya, Sisira and Dushni Weerakon, (2002), Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Integration in the SAARC region, pp in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Joshi, Vijay and I.M.D. Little, (1994), India: Macroeconomics and Political Economy , The World Bank, Washington DC. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 11 Revised Draft August 29,2002

12 Kelegama, S., and F. Foley, (1999), Impediments to Promoting Backward Linkages from the Garment Industry in Sri Lanka, World Development, vol 27, No 8, pp Kemal, A.R., Musleh-ud Din, Kalbe Abbas, Usman Qadir, (2002), A Plan to Strengthen Regional Trade Cooperation in South Asia, pp in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Khan, F., (1994), Import Liberalization in a Developing Country with Import-Intensive Industry: The Case of Bangladesh, International Economic Journal, Vol. 8, No.1 Khondker, B.H. and M.K. Mujeri, 2002, Welfare and Poverty Impacts of Tariff Reforms in Bangladesh: A general equilibrium approach, MIMAP Working Paper, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. Lall, Sanjay, (1995), Creation of Comparative Advantage: The Role of Industrial Policy, in I.ul Haque (ed.), Trade, Technology and International Competitiveness, Economic Development Institute, World Bank, Washington DC Lama, M. (2000), Regional Economic Cooperation in South Asia: A commodity approach, South Asia Economic Journal, Vol 1, No. 1, pp Mahal, Ajay, (20020, Health Policy Challenges for India: Private Health Insurance and Lessons from the International Experience, pp in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Mayer, J and A. Wood, (2001), South Asia s Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective, Oxford Development Studies, Vol 29. Mehta, Rajesh and S.K. Bhattacharya, (1997), SAPTA I, SAPTA II and SAFTA: Impact on India s Imports, South Asian Survey, Sage Publications, New Delhi. Mehta, Rajesh, (1998), Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers of the Indian Economy: A Profile, Report for the Tariff Commission, Government of India. Mehta, Rajesh, (2001), The India-Sri Lank free trade agreement: analysis of trade creation and trade diversion, mimeo prepared for SASPR, World Bank, Washington D.C. Mukherji, Indra Nath., (1998a), India s Trade and Investment Linkages with Bangladesh, ICRIER (mimeo), New Delhi. Mukherji, Indra Nath., (1998b), India s Trade and Investment Linkages with Nepal: Some Reflections, South Asian Survey, Vol. 5, No 2, pp Mukherji, Indra Nath., (2000), Indo-Sri Lanka Trade and Investment Linkages with Special Reference to SAPTA and Free Trade Agreement, South Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 1, No 1. Mukherji, Indra Nath, (2002), Charting a Free Trade Area in South Asia Instruments and Modalities, pp in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Mujeri, Mustafa K., 2002, External Sector Performance and Recent Issues, pp 1-15, paper presented at BIDS Seminar on Bangladesh: Development Challenges and Opportunities Musleh-ud Din and K. Abbas, (1999), The Uruguay Round Agreement and Pakistan s Trade in Textiles and Clothing, South Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 1, No 1 pp Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 12 Revised Draft August 29,2002

13 Naya, S.F. and P.I. Iboshi, (1999), Trade and Investment Policy Matrix and Liberalization Agenda for Asia and the Pacific, in ESCAP, (1999), Trade and Investment Policy Scenarios and Liberalization Agenda for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Economic and Social Committee for Asia and Pacific, New York. Nisha, Taneja (1999), Informal Trade in the SAARC Region ICRIER Working Paper No. 47, New Delhi, also published in Economic and Political Weekly, Panagarya, Arvind, (2001), South Asia: Does Preferential Trade Liberalization Make Sense?, Mimeo, University of Maryland. Pigato, M.,C. Farah, K. Itakura, K. Jun, W.Martin, K. Murrell and T.N. Srinivasan, (1997), South Asia s Integration into the World Economy, South Asia Division, World Bank, Washington D.C. Pitagala, Nihal (2001), Has Unilateral Trade Liberalization Led to Regional Integration in South Asia? Mimeo, prepared for SASPR, World Bank, Washington D.C. Pitagala, Nihal (2001), What does Regional Trade in South Asia reveal about Future Trade integration? Some Empirical Evidence. Mimeo, prepared for SASPR, World Bank, Washington D.C. Pohit, Sanjib and Nisha Taneja, (2002), India s Informal Trade with Bangladesh and Nepal: A Comparative Study in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi (previously published as ICRIER Working Paper no. 58, ICRIER, New Delhi. Pursell, Gary, (1996), Indian Trade Policies since the 1991/2 Reforms, mimeo, World Bank, Washington D.C. Pursell, Gary and Nihal Pitigala, (2001), Trade Agreements in the South Asia Region, mimeo, World Bank, Dhaka Pursell, Gary, (2002), Trade Policies and Regional Trade in South Asia, mimeo, World Bank, Dhaka Rahman, Mizanur (?) (1998), Harnessing Competitive Strength through Enhancement of Technological Capability: A Study on Export Oriented Apparels Sector of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Dhaka. Rahman, Mustafizur, (1996), Regional Trade Cooperation in the SAARC: Issues of Transition from SAPTA to SAFTA, presented at regional seminar on South Asian Free Trade Area SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industries, Dhaka Rahman, Mustafizur, (1998a), Bangladesh-India Bilateral Trade: Current Trends, New Perspectives, New Challenges, BIISS Journal, Vol. 19, pp , Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Dhaka. Rahman, Mustafizur, (1998b), Intra-regional Trade in South Asia: Current Status, Emerging Opportunities and Future Challenges, in Sadrel Raza (ed.), Export-led Growth Strategy for South, Asian and Pacific Development Centre, APDC, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Rahman, Mustafizur, (2002), Emerging Challenges in Bangladesh s Export Sector, pp. 1-22, paper presented at BIDS Seminar on Bangladesh: Development Challenges and Opportunities Rahman, Mustafizur, (2002), Bangladesh-India Bilateral Trade: An Investigation into Trade in Services, pp in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Rahman M., and Debapriya Bhattacharya, (2000), The WTO, ATC and Textiles and Clothing in A Global Perspective: What is in it for Bangladesh?, CPD Occasional Paper No. 8, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 13 Revised Draft August 29,2002

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15 Srinivasan, T.N., (2002), South Asia in the World Economy Some Issues, pp. 1-27, in Srinivasan, T.N., (2002 ed.), Trade, Finance and Investment in South Asia, Social Science Press, New Delhi. Wignaraja, Ganeshan, (1994a), Trade and Industrial Policies and Experiences in Sri Lanka, in G.K. Helleiner (ed.), Trade Policy and Industrialization in Turbulent Times, London, Routledge. Wignaraja, Ganeshan, (1994b), Outward-Oriented Trade Policy and Industrial Performance in Sri Lanka, , Contemporary South Asia, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp Wignaraja, Ganeshan, (1998), Trade Liberalization in Sri Lanka: Exports, Technology and Industrial Policy, Macmillan Press Ltd., Basingstoke. Weerakoon, Dushni, (1998), SAPTA/SAFTA: Implications for Sri Lanka, Upanathi: Journal of the Sri Lanka Association of Economists, Vol. 9, no 1 and 2, pp World Bank, (1996), Trade Policy Reform for Improving the Incentive Regime, Report no BD, World Bank, Washington DC. World Bank, (1999), Bangladesh Trade Liberalization: Its Pace and Impacts, Report BD, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Division, Washington DC. World Trade Organization, (various) Trade Policy Reviews, WTO Geneva. Country Studies Research Outline -- BIDS 15 Revised Draft August 29,2002