Maitland Political Insight Conservative Party Conference 2015

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1 Maitland Political Insight Conservative Party Conference

2 Maitland Political Insight - Conservative Conference - September Contents Introduction 3 Policy Summary 5 Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills 6 The Chancellor 6 The EU 7 London and Beyond 8 Immigration 9 2

3 Introduction by Maitland Partner, James Drewer James was previously a press secretary at Conservative Party HQ. Sometimes, when a leader is at the peak of their power and confidence they have the ability to change an entire conference in under an hour. At Conservative Party conference this week David Cameron did just this. His speech had the crowd on their feet on five occasions. With housing policies he reached to the Thatcherite past. With rhetoric he dressed Labour troupes in Tory logic, planting himself firmly in the centre ground. It was his best speech as Prime Minister; much of it seemed to either come straight from his heart, or, cynically, the pen of the Big Society creator Steve Hilton. The speech started with Cameron saying his two favourite words; exit poll, to cheers. It ended with him staring down the camera, and saying to those people who carried Tony Blair to power in 1997 I want to make these 2010s a defining decade for our country, the turnaround decade, one which people will look back on and say: that s the time when the tide turned. His barnstormer was light on specific policy but that wasn t the point. He took the party out of its comfort zone into areas usually better trodden by centre-left politicians, setting himself up as a social justice warrior by proclaiming that you can t have true opportunity without real equality. It is possible that this could become a totemic moment in the recent history of the Party. For Cameron and many others at conference in Manchester they can see the opportunity to seize the centre ground. Mr Cameron has recently openly mused about the possibility of the Tories winning General Elections with 43% of the popular vote something that has seemed impossible just a few months ago. The conference was not, beyond parts of the Leaders speech, a celebratory affair although nearly every speech opened with I am delighted to be the first Conservative Secretary of State for X in 18 long years, followed by a hearty clap. The on-going protest outside the Conference created a kind of them and us atmosphere and equally a kind of defiance, most exuberantly illustrated by Boris Johnson; As I came into the conference area yesterday we had to go through a kind of Khyber pass with protestors on either side hurling eggs and water bombs. Perhaps some of you had the same experience. Were we intimidated? No! 3

4 With lanyards hiding behind jumpers the Tory faithful filed into the conference centre greeted by the blue banners reminding them of the 7-day NHS and other Tory election promises - perhaps subconsciously mocking the famous Ed-stone which Ed Miliband planned to have in the rose garden in Downing Street. These Tories though were not in a smug mood, with a wafer thin majority, a Comprehensive Spending Review and controversial new Tax Credit rules all in the intray before Christmas, there was much more politics than joviality at the Fringe events and watering holes in Manchester. Alongside the serious policy discussions was the murmur and chatter of political gossip, mainly about party leadership. Eyebrows were raised when the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn turned down the Institute of Directors and instead appeared at a Communication Workers Union sponsored rally a few minutes down the road from the Conference hall. Corbyn is not seen as a threat by the Tory faithful, if anything, an opportunity for the Tories to win an election by a landslide. The other leadership chatter was much closer to home, the race to be the next Tory leader is bubbling below the surface. Boris Johnson went for the you re a Tory, feel good approach staking claim to the One Nationers in the crowd. Theresa May went for the more Eurosceptic conservative members, in a speech about immigration. George Osborne, showing his reach across the Government highlighted his passion for the Northern Powerhouse, not a cuddly One Nationer nor an arch-eurosceptic, but a functional pragmatic and reasonable common-ground Tory. Meanwhile David Cameron confirmed he would in this, his last term, be on a crusade to leave the party in the centre-ground. His aim is to hand over to the next Tory leader a giant electorate delivering a Thatcher or Blair-style majority. Whether he will achieve this or not, only time will tell. But for now, please enjoy this Insight into the goings on of the Conservative Party Conference. 4

5 Policy Summary Treasury & Business All business rates collected by local governments will be kept by Councils instead of being sent to Whitehall Treasury will work with Councils to create half a dozen British Wealth Funds instead of 89 different local government pension funds Increased asset sales to ensure the government is spending a greater proportion of our national income on capital investment A sell off of Lloyds bank shares Confirmation of 2% spending on defence and 0.7% on international development Infrastructure Establishing an independent National Infrastructure Commission to advise the government on infrastructure projects, led by Labour peer Lord Adonis Housing Extending the Right to Buy scheme to Housing Association tenants Allowing developers to build affordable housing to buy and not just for rent Environment Trebling the number of apprenticeships in the food and farming industry Health More spending than ever before on the NHS 750m scheme to improve primary care premises and technology Foreign Affairs & Defence Committing to spend 2% of GDP on defence Committing to renewing the UKs nuclear deterrent with 4 new trident submarines Education Creating 500 new free schools 5

6 Secretary of State of Business Innovation and Skills, Sajid Javid Even before Sajid Javid took to the stage there was an expectation that the Treasury and Department for Business, Innovation and Skills will work more closely together than was the case during the Coalition Government. Sajid Javid is one of the Osbornites in Cameron s Cabinet and his speech was full of Osborne sign-posting. The main themes were attacking Labour, who Javid will not let wreck our country, attacking the unions, particularly the leader of Unite, red-len McCluskey and emphasising that the Government will be a One Nation force shamelessly supporting business. Javid s appeal was to the blue collar workers, he told conference we are the Party for the people raising their kids in the flat above the family shop. The other Osbornism was a spot of political cross-dressing. Javid sent a shot across the bows at misbehaving businesses. Borrowing some rhetoric from the Labour party songbook he said being pro-business does not mean that you turn a blind eye to bad practice. Whether you're a bank rigging interest rates, a car manufacturer cheating on emissions, or a company not paying your fair share of tax. we will come after you. Overall there was nothing in the way of new policy, although he did defend the Government s controversial plans to democratise union striking laws (more info here). The important take home from the speech is that BIS and Treasury are working closely, Javid s speech teed up the ball for Osborne to drive home in his keynote address. The battle over who makes policy announcements, Chancellor or Business Secretary, is for now, completely dormant. The Chancellor, George Osborne Chancellor George Osborne delivered his much anticipated speech to the Tory conference on the Monday of conference. Proclaiming that we are the builders, a phrase joining the Tory s political lexicon alongside Northern Powerhouse and long-term economic plan, Mr Osborne used it six times as he restated the Government s commitment to getting Britain building. The speech emphasised infrastructure and devolution, or power to the people. He outed his younger self as being one of those people who thought if it s not happening in London, it s not happening anywhere. A reformed man, the Chancellor praised devolution and elected Mayors in Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire. Key policy announcements: Increased asset sales to ensure the Government is spending a greater proportion of our national income on capital investment An independent National Infrastructure Commission; led by ex- Labour Transport Secretary Lord Adonis To allow local government to keep the rates they collect from business, ending the nationwide business rate tax and allowing elected Mayors to raise it by 2% for infrastructure spending A sell off of Lloyds shares Confirmation of 2% spending on defence and 0.7% on international development 6

7 Mr Osborne told conference the future favours the bold, and that was partly the point of the speech, as Osborne manoeuvres to become the Prime Minister in He used his speech to show the reach of his tentacles; confirming policy already made about the international development, defence and NHS spending he highlighted to the Tory faithful the broad reach of his influence. It was also a speech that was aimed towards the centre-ground of politics; do you know what the supporters of the new Labour leadership now call anyone who believes in strong national defence, a market economy, and the country living within its means? They call them Tories. Well, it s our job to make sure they re absolutely right. The consensus was that while Osborne s speech will never appear on t-shirts or posters in students dorm rooms, it was wise, strategic and wily, praising Labour s achievements like the NHS and workers rights, saying to the party and country: I ll be a One-Nation leader, when the time comes. The EU The biggest issue looming on the horizon for the Conservatives remains the European Union. The conference fringe agenda was dominated by discussions on the renegotiations and forthcoming referendum, laying bare divisions in the party that have rumbled and occasionally surfaced since the trauma of the Maastricht Treaty. The Eurosceptic Conservatives for Britain group, buoyed by the appointment of former Chancellor Lord Lawson to be its public face, made its presence felt in Manchester. Chairman Steve Baker MP told a packed fringe event that the Government will realistically come back with very little from its renegotiations, teeing up the group to lead the campaign for British withdrawal. Of the party s leadership contenders, Boris Johnson and Theresa May took the hardest line on the EU, vying for the favour of the Tory right. The duo used their speeches to make it clear that restrictions on the free movement of people must be included in the Prime Minister s discussions with Brussels, something that had been taken off the table after receiving a frosty reception from other member states. In contrast, even Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, considered by many to be in favour of Brexit, tried to play down expectations by saying that no politician in eastern Europe is going to support the end of freedom of movement. It would be domestic political suicide. This is likely to be the clearest fault line in the disagreement over EU membership and will be a rallying point for Tory Outers should the PM fall short of their expectations. For his part the Chancellor, who has always seen the EU in a far more positive light than many of his colleagues, has his sights set firmly on positioning the Tories in the centre ground following the 7

8 election of Jeremy Corbyn. Though Osborne highlighted the need for reform, he still gave a firm commitment to Britain s place in Europe and spoke to the benefits of remaining in the Single Market. This was echoed by the Prime Minister in his address as he stated we know what s right about it it s the biggest single market in the world. However he also stated we all know what s wrong with the EU it s got too big, too bossy, too interfering. All ministers are serving under the expectation that they will back Cameron s attempts at reform and eventual recommendation. This embrace of collective responsibility has not been replicated by Tory backbenchers, and there will doubtless be more dissent in the ranks as the vote approaches. London and Beyond The Mayor of London Boris Johnson Boris speech contained the usual gags but it had serious messages too. He showed his commitment to One-Nation Toryism saying that the party could not ignore the gulf in pay packets that yawns wider year by year and at the same time he also set out a principled stance against high levels of immigration and his desire to see a reformed European Union. He also praised his own time in City Hall, such as cutting council tax by 27% over the last 8 years, presiding over falling crime and murder rates and improved air quality. Looking to the future, Boris renewed his commitment to installing the garden bridge, extending the Northern Line and delivering a 24-hour Underground service. The Conservative Party will be looking for a successor in 2020, as the PM confirmed in his speech on Wednesday. Whilst it is continuity, represented by George Osborne, that looks most attractive to activists at the moment, Boris speech showed he is re-establishing himself as a potential leader that may well be drawn upon should the party enter any troubles. Conservative Mayoral Candidate Zac Goldsmith Zac Goldsmith s first speech as the Conservative candidate for London Mayor was dominated by infrastructure and the environment. He showed support for Crossrail 2, called for more tax powers for City Hall and promised to get more institutional investors funding housing development. The Richmond MP said the biggest challenge London faces is housing and said we can build the homes London needs without destroying the green spaces we love. The Mayoral candidate pledged to use the Mayor s Land Commission to identify publically owned brownfield land to build on; use institutional investors to fund housing development and consult 8

9 communities on house building and to listen to local opinion. Goldsmith demonstrated his commitment to improving the environment saying that he wants the capital to become the greenest city on earth and though he didn t mention airport expansion in his speech today which he is opposed to, he made clear the environment would be central to his campaign. Immigration Conservative Party conference could not be expected to pass without any mention of immigration, and this year it formed the centre piece of the Home Secretary s address. Theresa May stated that Of course immigrants plug skills shortages and it is right we should try to attract the best talent in the world, but not every person coming to Britain right now is a skilled electrician, engineer or doctor. Perhaps her most controversial comment that high levels of immigration make it impossible to have a "cohesive society". The speech was quickly leapt upon by many in business and the media, Simon Walker. Director General of the Institute of Directors, said: It is yet another example of the Home Secretary turning away the world s best and brightest, putting internal party politics ahead of the country, and helping our competitor economies instead of our own. It is noteworthy that the Prime Minister used his speech to praise the impact that immigrants have on the country, in reference to Priti Patel and Sajid Javid the Prime Minister stated when the child of immigrants sees our flag, he feels so loyal to this country his country he wants to put on a uniform and defend it. By the time the PM s address was finished Theresa May looked out of step with the party; Times journalist Hugo Rifkind tweeted May s speech was so ten years ago. Cameron took the side of business and the treasury who generally see immigration as one the key reasons for Britain s growth and improving productivity. 9

10 Maitland Political is part of the wider Maitland Consultancy Group, Europe s leading financial and corporate communications consultancy. To subscribe to the Maitland Political Daily please contact politicalbriefing@maitland.co.uk Maitland Political Orion House 5 Upper St Martin s Lane London WC2H 9EA T: +44 (0)

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