Partisan Gerrymandering
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1 Partisan Gerrymandering Gary King Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (talk at Brookline High School, 2/15/2011) Gary King (Harvard) 1 / 23
2 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
3 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
4 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
5 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
6 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
7 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
8 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, and get elected Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
9 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, and get elected You re a respected member of the Massachusetts legislature! Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
10 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, and get elected You re a respected member of the Massachusetts legislature! Can you think of an issue that would cause you to lose your temper, have a fist fight with other legislators, or act in unethical ways? Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
11 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, and get elected You re a respected member of the Massachusetts legislature! Can you think of an issue that would cause you to lose your temper, have a fist fight with other legislators, or act in unethical ways? Can you think of the most conflictual form of regular politics in the US over the last 200 years? Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
12 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, and get elected You re a respected member of the Massachusetts legislature! Can you think of an issue that would cause you to lose your temper, have a fist fight with other legislators, or act in unethical ways? Can you think of the most conflictual form of regular politics in the US over the last 200 years? Can you think of an issue about to cause a big ruckus? Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
13 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, and get elected You re a respected member of the Massachusetts legislature! Can you think of an issue that would cause you to lose your temper, have a fist fight with other legislators, or act in unethical ways? Can you think of the most conflictual form of regular politics in the US over the last 200 years? Can you think of an issue about to cause a big ruckus? Legislative Redistricting Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
14 The Most Predictably Conflictual Issue Suppose you work hard, graduate from BHS, go to a great college, get a graduate degree, run for political office, and get elected You re a respected member of the Massachusetts legislature! Can you think of an issue that would cause you to lose your temper, have a fist fight with other legislators, or act in unethical ways? Can you think of the most conflictual form of regular politics in the US over the last 200 years? Can you think of an issue about to cause a big ruckus? Legislative Redistricting (Watch Carefully; We ll have a contest to redistrict Brookline shortly!) Gary King (Harvard) 2 / 23
15 U.S. House of Representatives Gary King (Harvard) 3 / 23
16 Count Everyone Apportion Seats to States Gary King (Harvard) 4 / 23
17 Redistrict Within States Gary King (Harvard) 5 / 23
18 Gary King (Harvard) 6 / 23
19 Is this fair? Texas, before redistricting Gary King (Harvard) 7 / 23
20 Or is this fair? Texas, after redistricting Gary King (Harvard) 8 / 23
21 (Important but Inadequate!) Standards for Fairness 1 Equal population 2 Preserving Communities of Interest 3 Compactness (and contiguity) Gary King (Harvard) 9 / 23
22 Arizona s 2nd Congressional District Gary King (Harvard) 10 / 23
23 North Carolina s 12nd Congressional District Gary King (Harvard) 11 / 23
24 Illinois 4th Congressional District Gary King (Harvard) 12 / 23
25 Governor Gerry s 1812 Gerrymander in Massachusetts Gary King (Harvard) 13 / 23
26 How many (of 4) legislative seats should each party get? Democratic vote % in each precinct (Average = 52.5%) Gary King (Harvard) 14 / 23
27 A Republican Redistricting Plan Average Democrats win 1 of 4 seats Gary King (Harvard) 15 / 23
28 A Democratic Redistricting Plan Average Democrats win all 4 seats Gary King (Harvard) 16 / 23
29 New Standards for Fair Redistricting 1 Equal population 2 Preserving Communities of Interest 3 Compactness (and contiguity) 4 Partisan symmetry (no bias) 5 Electoral responsiveness Gary King (Harvard) 17 / 23
30 The Surpreme Court on Partisan Symmetry Gary King (Harvard) 18 / 23
31 Fair Seats-Votes Curves Partisan symmetry: When votes are split equally, seats are split equally Fair, Proportional Fair, Responsive Dem Seat Proportion Dem Seat Proportion Dem Vote Proportion Dem Vote Proportion Gary King (Harvard) 19 / 23
32 Biased Seats-Votes Curves Partisan Bias: When votes are split equally, seats are split unequally Biased, Proportional Biased, Responsive Dem Seat Proportion Dem Seat Proportion Dem Vote Proportion Dem Vote Proportion Gary King (Harvard) 20 / 23
33 Calculating a Seats-Votes Curve Dem Seat Proportion Dem Vote Proportion Gary King (Harvard) 21 / 23
34 Calculating a Seats-Votes Curve Compute average vote and seat proportions; plot black dot Dem Seat Proportion Dem Vote Proportion Gary King (Harvard) 21 / 23
35 Calculating a Seats-Votes Curve Compute average vote and seat proportions; plot black dot Dem Seat Proportion Find difference of vote average from Dem Vote Proportion Gary King (Harvard) 21 / 23
36 Calculating a Seats-Votes Curve Compute average vote and seat proportions; plot black dot Dem Seat Proportion Find difference of vote average from 0.5 Add difference from every district s vote (new vote average = 0.5) Dem Vote Proportion Gary King (Harvard) 21 / 23
37 Calculating a Seats-Votes Curve Compute average vote and seat proportions; plot black dot Dem Seat Proportion Find difference of vote average from 0.5 Add difference from every district s vote (new vote average = 0.5) See who wins new districts with the adjusted votes; calculate seat proportion; plot red dot Dem Vote Proportion Gary King (Harvard) 21 / 23
38 Calculating a Seats-Votes Curve Compute average vote and seat proportions; plot black dot Dem Seat Proportion Find difference of vote average from 0.5 Add difference from every district s vote (new vote average = 0.5) See who wins new districts with the adjusted votes; calculate seat proportion; plot red dot Dem Vote Proportion Calculate bias (difference in seat proportion from 0.5) Gary King (Harvard) 21 / 23
39 Gary King (Harvard) 22 / 23
40 What did we learn? Gary King (Harvard) 23 / 23
41 What did we learn? In redistricting, the rules of the game are part of the game Gary King (Harvard) 23 / 23
42 What did we learn? In redistricting, the rules of the game are part of the game With partisan symmetry, math can make redistricting fair Gary King (Harvard) 23 / 23
43 What did we learn? In redistricting, the rules of the game are part of the game With partisan symmetry, math can make redistricting fair In practice, redistricting is a mess; law suits will be filed everywhere; rules will be broken; hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent Gary King (Harvard) 23 / 23
44 What did we learn? In redistricting, the rules of the game are part of the game With partisan symmetry, math can make redistricting fair In practice, redistricting is a mess; law suits will be filed everywhere; rules will be broken; hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent To legislators, this is the most visible issue Gary King (Harvard) 23 / 23
45 What did we learn? In redistricting, the rules of the game are part of the game With partisan symmetry, math can make redistricting fair In practice, redistricting is a mess; law suits will be filed everywhere; rules will be broken; hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent To legislators, this is the most visible issue Redistricting is often invisible to the public... but not to you! Gary King (Harvard) 23 / 23
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