TANA HIGH-LEVEL FORUM ON SECURITY IN AFRICA

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1 Africa in the Global Security Agenda: The African Union and the Regional Economic Communities as an Impetus to Regional Peace and Security Sekou Toure Otondi, University of Nairobi Introduction Towards the dusk of the twentieth century, and throughout the dawn of the twenty first, the systemic balance of power has continued to shift towards a multipolar balance of power. This is at least with regard to economic and cultural power. 1 The impetus continues to be driven mainly by the rising economies of China, India, Brazil, South Africa and the Asian tiger economies. The new balance of power has thus, in essence, positioned Africa as a dominant global power. This is due to the fact that Africa has emerged both as a source of natural resources and a destination for manufactured products from emerging economic giants such as India and China. The current systemic balance of power is in sharp contrast to the immediate situation following the aftermath of the Second World War and the end of the Cold War. At the close of the Second World War, the international system was mainly bipolar. The United States (US) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (hereinafter Soviet Union) competed to assert their influence globally, and specifically within the newly independent African states. The effect of this struggle for power was pronounced in inter-state conflict and internal strife across the continent as military coups escalated in the proxy wars between the US and the Soviet Union. The Ethio-Somali territorial conflict (The Ogaden War) provides a perfect illustration of regional inter-state conflict largely fueled by Cold War politics, while the Angolan Civil War provides an example of the proxy wars used by the US and the Soviet Union to assert their influence in the internal affairs of newly independent African nation-states. However, with the end of the Cold War in 1991, the international system was transformed into a unipolar system. During this period, Africa was pushed to the periphery as there were no longer any competing influential powers. The US became the dominant global military and economic powerhouse. The post-cold War period led to the expansion of democratic spaces 1 W. Raymond Duncan, Barbara Jancar-Webster, and Bob Switky, World Politics in the 21 st Century, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 20for power09, pp

2 across the continent, with many countries adopting multiparty democracy as the US aimed to spread its influence across the continent 2 as the sole dominant global power. Nevertheless, these changes were characterized by internal conflicts as domestic political actors jostled for space. This led to increased intra-state conflicts in Africa, with devastating implications for regional peace and security. The decline in economic growth for countries that had relied on foreign funds from the US and the Soviet Union further fueled domestic conflicts, as structural adjustment programmes took a toll on national economies. Regional Economic Communities within the context of Africa s Peace and Security Architecture The African Union (AU) was created in 2002, replacing the Organization of African Unity (OAU). The OAU s key role was to facilitate the fight for liberation in Africa against colonial rule and promote the spirit of Pan-Africanism. Although the OAU has been criticized by many analysts as having failed to promote peace and security across the region, it is important to note that it attained some of its core objectives. This is attested to by the fact that at the time the OAU was being wound up, Africa was free of direct colonial rule. Nevertheless, due to glaring disparities within the political milieu at the formation of the OAU and the twenty first century in which it operated, the OAU had to give way to a new regional body, the AU, capable of tackling emerging socio-economic and political challenges in the continent. However, the AU has continued to face organizational and structural challenges in solving Africa s problems since its formation. With the formation of the AU, the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) has gradually emerged. The tenets underlining this framework include: the Peace and Security Council (PSC), responsible for ensuring collective security; the Panel of the Wise (PoW) that seeks to provide advice on preventing, managing and resolving conflict; the African Standby Force, tailored along the continent s five regions and to be deployed for peace support operations; the Continental Early Warning System; and the Peace Fund. 3 In addition to these five pillars of the APSA, the newly emerged principle of subsidiarity has delegated efforts for the promotion and maintenance of peace to Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and Regional Mechanisms (RMs). Article 16 of the Protocol Relating to the 2 F Ugboaja Ohaegbulam, The United States and Africa after the Cold War, Africa Today, Vol.35, No.4, Indiana University Press, 1992, p.32 3 African Union Handbook, 2014Jointly published by the African Union Commission and New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Addis Ababa,2014

3 Establishment of the Peace and Security Council acknowledges RMs as the building blocks of the APSA, 4 assisted by the AU s eight recognized RECs. 5 It is a significant given that since the end of the Cold War era, conflicts in Africa have mainly been intra-state in their nature. However, due to the interconnected nature of the regional socioeconomic and political framework, these internal crises tended to perforate across state boundaries with negative implications for regional stability. The crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for example, which began around the 1990s, at one point drew in nine neighboring states, with Rwanda and Uganda being key actors in 1998, leading to its infamous referral as Africa s First World War. 6 Other than the involvement of state actors, the regionalization of the conflict has attracted non-state actors, such as Al-Shabab, and militia groups, which have further complicated peaceful resolution of conflicts. The success of the AU and RECs in peaceful resolution of conflicts One of the main achievements of the AU and the sub-regional organizations has been increased economic growth and development across the continent. In 2015, the World Bank projected Africa s regional Gross Domestic Product for to grow at 5.2%, an increase from 2014 when it grew at 4.6% despite a rather slow and weak global economic growth rate. 7 The significance of economic prosperity is that it is directly linked to social and political stability across the region. The RECs have fostered intra-regional trade and integrated domestic markets to the wider regional markets. This has ensured that member states become each other s brother s keeper as political instability in any member state is likely to morph into a regional economic crisis with negative implications for member states. This was witnessed during Kenya s 2007 post-election violence, which saw other regional economies, such as Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, suffer at the expense of their reliance on Kenya s Mombasa sea port for exports and imports. 8 This prompted regional and international actors to heighten mediation efforts to contain the Kenyan situation before it ballooned into a regional crisis. 4 See Article 16 of the African Union Constitutive Act, African Union Handbook, 2015,.Jointly published by the African Union Commission and New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Addis Ababa, John Prendergast, The New Face of African Conflict, Council on Foreign Relations, March 12, The World Bank Group report, Africa: Growth Pattern may exceed Five Percent in , but Ebola, Terrorism, and Other risks pose Concern, 8 International Crisis Group, Kenya in Crisis, Crisis Group, Africa Report No.137,February 2008, P.21

4 Other than economic gains, the AU and its regional partners have also politically and militarily been successful at mediating conflicts across the continent. The AU and the RECs have been at the forefront in condemning unconstitutional ascension to power. This has reduced the number of coups in the region from a record high at the height of the Cold War, to a new low at the turn of the twenty first century. According to an African Development Bank (AfDB) study, the number of successful and failed coup attempts decreased significantly during the 1990s and 2000s across Africa. 9 While this phenomenon can be attributed to several factors, it is important to note that the AU and the RECs played an important role in condemning and suspending countries whose governments had unconstitutionally ascended to power. Perhaps the best illustration of the AU and RECs in eliminating unconstitutional transitions to power in the continent was witnessed in Burkina Faso in The interplay between ECOWAS-led mediation efforts, and the AU s condemnation and suspension of Burkina Faso from all its engagements, 10 pressured the coup plotters to restore power to the transitional government. These joint efforts between ECOWAS and the AU not only restored political stability in Burkina Faso, but also helped contain an outbreak of potential crisis with devastating consequences for the region. The challenge of unconstitutional term limit extensions to regional peace and security Despite the noble role played by the RECs and the AU in reducing the number of military coups across Africa, the main challenge remains of incumbents who unconstitutionally extend their term limits to remain in power. In the recent past, the number of incumbents who have either undertaken or are contemplating constitutional revisionism has been on the rise. These illegal term limit extensions often lead to a crisis, especially in cases where they have been met with strong opposition. This is currently the situation in Burundi, where what started as a multi-ethnic opposition to President Nkurunzinza s bid for a third term has dangerously acquired undertones of potential ethnic-based conflict, with possible dire consequences for the region. This challenge is further compounded by the fact that the AU Assembly, which is the ultimate decision-making organ of the AU, is composed of incumbents who are Heads of State and Government, including those who violate constitutions to extend term limits. This has made it 9 Habiba Ben Barka & Mthuli Ncube, Political Fragility in Africa: Are Military Coups d Etat a Never Ending Phenomenon?, African Development Bank, Chief Economist Complex, September BBC News, Africa, Burkina Faso Coup: Breakthrough in talks, 19 September 2015,

5 difficult for the AU to act on ruling regimes who act in unconstitutional power transition patterns. Instead the AU has mainly focused on condemning military coups. Again the application of these double standards by the AU and the RECs has been witnessed in Burundi. While the AU and the East African Community (EAC) have continued to find it difficult to resolve the Burundian crisis, including the failure to send the promised 5000 ASF troops, they were quick and unequivocal in condemning the aborted Burundian military coup. This has further reinforced the notion that the AU is a mere talk shop aimed at protecting the selfish interests of reigning incumbents among member states. Policy recommendations Given the myriad challenges, how can the AU and RECs play a significant role in the promotion, resolution, and maintenance of regional peace and security? One of the major avenues is through participatory engagements of stakeholders in the AU s and RECs procedures. This can be enhanced by citizenry participation through civil society organizations. The participation by non-state actors should cut across the various interest groups and link the subnational, national, and regional levels to enhance inclusivity of stakeholders in key policy decision-making processes. This approach is likely to be more successful in peaceful resolution of conflict, unlike the current top-down approach where the AU s and RECs engagements in conflict resolutions is centered at high levels of government bureaucrats and top belligerents in the conflict, without citizenry participation. Partnership between civil society organizations and the RECs is also likely to enhance early intervention measures. This is because civil society organizations act as a link between citizens at the grassroots level and top policy decision-making organs at the regional center. For instance, the collaboration between civil society organizations, regional bodies, and AU s Continental Early Warning Systems can prevent and deter crises before they escalate into violent conflicts. Other than participatory engagement of non-state actors in efforts aimed at regional stability, the AU also needs to reform and strengthen its normative and institutional framework to enhance peaceful resolution of conflicts across the continent. The AU has repeatedly and rightfully been accused of being slow at responding to various crises in the region. The delay in intervention can be attributed to various factors. However one of the major factors that

6 undermine the AU s pace of intervention is the lethargic approach of the AU Assembly in responding to crisis on the continent. The Assembly, as the absolute decision-making organ of the AU, therefore needs to undergo reforms. This can include the formation of high level committees or panels that aim at monitoring and providing quick and alternative response measures for the Assembly to act on. This will enhance the pace and quality of decision-making processes in emergencies as opposed to the current situation where approval of a two-third majority from member states is required before convention of extraordinary session. 11 The high level committees or panels can work in tandem with the AU PSC and RECs to provide quick response measures to the Assembly. This will thus minimize the sluggish approach of the AU towards its response to crises across the continent. Conclusion Regardless of which view, optimism or pessimism, one subscribes to, Africa has indeed increasingly attracted global attention in the new millennium. This has been aided by the systemic shift in the balance of power that has seen the world gradually embrace a multipolar balance of power system. The shifting international balance of power has seen the emergence of new economic and military giants, such as China, India, and Brazil, which rely heavily on Africa both as a market for their manufactured products and natural resources for their industries. This therefore makes it hard for the rest of the global community to ignore Africa as a core political player on the international stage. However, political instability across the region continues to hamper Africa from achieving its total potential and assert itself globally. It is therefore upon the AU, the RECs, and individual member states to devise a formidable strategy to tackle the challenge of political instability that is a bottleneck to Africa s economic and social transformation. 11 See Article 6(3) of the African Union Constitutive Act, 2002

7 Bibliography African Union Handbook, (2014), jointly published by the African Union Commission and New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs Barka H. B & Ncube M. (2012), Political Fragility in Africa: Are Military Coups d Etat a Never Ending Phenomenon? African Development Bank, Chief Economist Complex, BBC News, Africa, Burkina Faso Coup: Breakthrough in talks, 19 September 2015, Duncan W.R, Webster.B.J, &Switky B. (2009), World Politics in the 21 st Century, Boston, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt International Crisis Group (2008), Kenya in Crisis, Crisis Group, Africa Report No.137 Ohaegbulam U. (1992), The United States and Africa after the Cold War, Africa Today, Vol.35, No.4, Indiana University Press Prendergast J. (2014), The New Face of African Conflict, Council on Foreign Relations, March 12, 2014 The African Union Constitutive Act, 2002 The World Bank Group report, Africa: Growth Pattern may exceed Five Percent in , but Ebola, Terrorism, and Other risks pose Concern,