Georgia Democratic Primary Poll 5/17/18

Transcription

1 Sponsor(s) Target Population Fox 5 Atlanta served as the sponsoring organization. Opinion Savvy, LLC conducted the survey on behalf of the sponsor. Likely voters; Georgia; 2018 Democratic primary Sampling Frame & Methodology Frame: The sample frame includes registered voters with either a landline telephone or internet-enabled mobile smartphone. Registered voters without access to either a landline telephone or an internet-enabled smartphone are excluded from the frame. Methodology Blended sample; mixed mode Contacted voters of both modes were selected randomly from a list of registered Georgia voters purchased by Opinion Savvy from Aristotle, Inc.. Only voters determined likely to vote in the 2018 Democratic primary were selected to participate in the survey, based on past election participation. Voters without a valid landline telephone number were selected for the mobile sample. Landline: selected voters were contacted on May 15 and 16, 2018 using an automated interactive voice response system. The survey was presented in English. Mobile: selected voters not available by landline telephone were contacted on May 15 and 16, 2018 on their mobile devices. Using voter data, selected voters were first matched to online and mobile application profiles electronically, using IP verification to ensure accurate selection and to prevent duplicate results. Selected voters were shown a brief message, push notification, or mobile advertisement requesting their participation in the survey. Respondents were offered a small, non-monetary prize for survey participation. Respondents answered a webbased survey instrument identical to that of landline respondents in written form. The survey was presented in English.

2 Weighting Georgia Democratic Primary Poll The blended sample was weighted for age, race, and gender using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using 2014 Democratic primary turnout and internal projections with voter turnout estimates provided by the Georgia Secretary of state. Total Number of Respondents 522 Margin of Error* ± 4.3% (95% confidence; not adjusted for weighting) *The reported margin of sampling error is calculated using multiple assumptions that modern surveys rarely fit. The estimate assumes that, insofar as probability-based sampling is possible under real-world conditions, this model conforms to these parameters. Disregarding response rates, each individual within the studied population is equally likely to be selected for survey participation.

3 1. How likely are you to vote in the May 22 nd Democratic primary to determine the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia? a. I have already voted b. I will definitely vote c. I am considering voting d. I am unsure, or I do not plan on voting [TERMINATE] 0. [Q2 AND 3 COMBINED] Governor total a. Stacey Abrams b. Stacey Evans Likely EV Definitely Considering Governor Total Abrams Evans Undecided Total [IF Q1=B OR C] If the primary election to determine the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia were held today and your choices were: former state representative Stacey Abrams, and former state representative Stacey Evans, for whom would you vote? a. Stacey Abrams b. Stacey Evans In-Person Gov Abrams Evans Undecided Total

4 3. [IF Q1=A] For whom did you vote in the primary election to determine the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia? a. Stacey Abrams b. Stacey Evans EV Gov Abrams Evans Total [Q4 AND Q5 COMBINED] Lt. Governor total a. Sarah Riggs Amico b. Triana Arnold James ` Lt. Governor Total Amico James Undecided Total [IF Q1=B OR C] If the primary election to determine the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Georgia were held today and your choices were: businesswoman Sarah Riggs Amico, and pastor/entrepreneur Triana Arnold James, for whom would you vote? a. Sarah Riggs Amico b. Triana Arnold James In-Person Lt. Gov Amico James Undecided Total

5 5. [IF Q1=A] For whom did you vote in the primary election to determine the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Georgia? a. Sarah Riggs Amico b. Triana Arnold James 6. What is your gender? a. Male b. Female 7. What is your age? a b c d. 65+ EV Lt. Gov Amico James Total Gender Male Female Age

6 8. What is your race or ethnicity? a. African-American b. White c. Hispanic/Latino d. Other Race African-American White Hispanic/ Latino Other What is your highest level of education? a. Less than HS b. HS Diploma c. Associates degree/technical school d. College degree e. Advanced degree 10. What is your political affiliation? a. Democratic b. Republican c. Independent or another party Education < HS HS diploma Associates Bachelors Advanced Total Party Democrat Republican Independent/other Total

7 11. Mode a. Landline b. Mobile Georgia Democratic Primary Poll Mode Landline Mobile