Scale and Dimensions of the China Threat
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1 Scale and Dimensions of the China Threat China is the #1 threat and the scale of that threat is unprecedented in modern times Of the threats facing the U.S., China alone possesses the capability to challenge the economic security and qualitative military advantage that the U.S. uses to protect its interests as well as its allies. The degree of the threat China poses is a function of the following factors which show no signs of reversing course: 1. Economic scale which gives China the capability to eclipse the U.S. (which hasn t faced a competitor with a larger economy since the U.S. overtook the United Kingdom in the late 19th century). China is currently the world s 2nd largest economy as measured in dollars, however, in purchasing power parity (PPP), China is already slightly larger than the U.S. By 2015, China s GDP was $11.4 trillion compared to the U.S. at $18 trillion. Since the U.S. economy is growing at 2-3% and China s is growing at 5-7%, the trajectory is clear (some projections show China s GDP exceeding U.S. GDP within the next decade) Behaviors which are inconsistent with the U.S.-led international order and not based on the shared values of rule of law or freedoms for its people but instead rely on the supremacy of sovereignty. Under President Xi, the regime is increasing its IT-fueled surveillance and tighter control on its population. 3. Future intent, which may be unknowable, but China s declarations of Asia for Asians imply a new regional security order without regard for U.S. interests 2 and supported by aggressive moves from the South China Sea to border conflicts with India and widespread economic coercion Once supremacy in Asia is assured, there s no way to know how much larger China s ambitions may be. 3 How fast is the threat changing the competitive dynamics? The time scale during which China s economic growth occurred is stunning as China has grown from 10% of the U.S. economy in the 1970s to the world s second largest economy in just fifty years. China is executing a multidecade plan to transfer technology to increase both the size and value-add of its economy. China plans to further transform its economy through a national focus on technology and indigenous innovation with a goal of import substitution outlined in Made in China 2025 and expanding its export market through its Belt and Road Initiative. China may already be ahead of the United States in several key technologies for the future, including hypersonics, quantum computing, supercomputing, anti-ship ballistic missiles incorporating artificial intelligence, drones and robotics, while increasingly challenging the United States in artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, advanced genomics, and other technologies. If we are waiting for the Sputnik moment, it is already unfolding as a process rather than a unique moment in time: in other words, it is hiding in plain sight. With our open system of trade and investment, China s access to our markets and leading-edge technologies without reciprocity means we may even be facilitating China s economic and technological superiority. 1 Malcolm Scott and Cedric Sam, China and the U.S.: Tale of Two Giant Economies, Bloomberg News (May 12, 2016) 2 Many note that this evokes imperial Japan. Curtis Chin, Xi Jinping s Asia for Asians Mantra Evokes Imperial Japan, South China Morning Post, March 24, Unlike the alarm raised by Japan s economic rise in the 1980s, China is not an ally, nor is it relying on the United States for its security. And while the European Union achieved similar economic scale in assembling its common market, the EU bloc tends to operate according to a shared set of political and economic principles.
2 The primary dimensions of the threat are: Economic. China s economic scale is partially a function of the world s largest population of 1.3 billion. However, its economic nationalism policies go well beyond traditional comparative advantage. 1. Mercantilism: The state continues to use a combination of policies to ensure it will have an unfair economic advantage in its trading relationships. These practices include: (i) Currency manipulation (practiced in the past to favor domestic manufacturing) (ii) Uneconomic exports to increase the scale economies of domestic firms and industries (i.e., dumping) (iii) Regulations to shape standards favoring Chinese firms (iv) Discriminatory procurement by national, state & local governments (v) Limiting market access to international firms (e.g., Great Firewall) (vi) Forced joint ventures to capture international firms intellectual property (IP) in exchange for market access (vii) State subsidies for land and capital (including state-owned enterprises and government-designed national champions such as Huawei, AVIC, Baidu & Alibaba) and (viii) Theft of IP through cyber theft and industrial espionage to transfer technology complemented by Statedirected investment funds to acquire foreign technology 2. Industrial policy: Unlike the Soviet Union, China has leveraged the best practices of capitalism under authoritarian control to deliver impressive economic results. Through its successive Five-Year Plans, Made in China 2025, and other documents, the government outlines a path of increasing technological progress and import substitution, which, if successful, will transfer global market leadership to China from the United States in many high technology markets, such as semiconductors, computer hardware & software, networking & communications, automobiles, bioengineering and others. State support of firms pursuing industrial policy goals as well as state-directed investment funds for foreign technology are examples of resource allocation to realize State industrial policy goals.
3 3. National focus on science & technology: China s leaders recognize that to achieve its economic goals, the economy must transform even faster in the future to increase the value-add and R&D intensity of its economy. The Chinese government wants to revitalize the nation through science, technology and innovation. 4 President Xi s strategy is for China to develop its own industries to be leading globally, develop more cyber talent, double down on R&D especially in core information (artificial intelligence & quantum computing) and communications technologies (5G) and transform China to be a powerhouse of innovation. 4. State-directed investment: The State can set the savings rate to ensure there is sufficient investment for future economic growth. This investment includes subsidizing national champion companies such as Huawei, increasing resources in science & technology, acquiring technology abroad, growing the military and realizing ambitious industrial policy goals. One example of this is the 16 so-called Manhattan projects where the State directs the military, academia and commercial businesses to collaborate in achieving grand-scale technology innovations in fields such as quantum communications, next generation broadband wireless mobile communications, genetic transformation, high-resolution Earth observation and manned space flight. The combination of mercantilism (unfair trade practices) and State-directed investment is an unfair competitive environment for U.S. businesses because any single business cannot compete against the resources of one of the world s most powerful nations acting as a competitor. The net effect is that the principles of free trade are thwarted and as China s economy grows stronger and faster, it eclipses the U.S. economy more rapidly. Since national security follows economic security, our national security becomes much more at risk with a stronger China given China s adversarial aims and our lack of shared values. 4 Xi Sets Targets for China s Science, Technology Mastery Xinhua (May 30, 2016).
4 Geopolitical alignment. As the world s largest economy, China is a new center of gravity for countries not only across Asia but Latin America, Africa, Europe, and the Arctic serving as a leading source of investment and trading partner. Through President Xi s signature initiative Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China aims to finance and construct $1 trillion in infrastructure investment in a maritime and overland (high-speed rail) transportation network supported by a digital backbone. Already 70 countries are participating and by 2017 these countries had amassed a debt load of $292 billion. If successful, the result will be an increase in China s global economic influence, domestic economic growth through exports, and political control over a wider geographical sphere through both diplomatic and economic coercion. BRI has already led to China s control of ports in Greece, Sri Lanka and Pakistan in addition to its first overseas navy base in Djibouti. The threat is that a strengthening Sinocentric geopolitical sphere undermines the international order based on freedoms, rule of law and free trade that benefits the U.S. and our allies. Military. China is using its economic power and technology advancements to engage in the fastest peacetime military buildup in the last half century, aimed at expanding borders across Asia and at sea. China s military strategy is based on developing asymmetric capabilities to neutralize our traditional strengths in technology (anti-satellite missiles to eliminate GPS) and deny our capabilities derived from expensive force projection that we cannot afford to replace (aircraft carriers). Instead, China focuses on lower-cost technologies that can leapfrog us and put us in a defensive posture (swarms of drones or hypersonic missiles). With its military-civil fusion initiative, China aims to integrate all of its commercial technology advances into its military capability. China has already achieved superior technology capabilities in a number of critical areas such as hypersonics and supercomputing while challenging the U.S. in artificial intelligence and bioengineering. The threat of a technologically superior adversary is that U.S. will be forced from its global foreign policy aims to more narrowly defending the homeland thereby abandoning our interests in Asia. The net effect will be the collapse of some of the international security arrangements established after World War II to prevent future wars between great powers.
5 Ideological. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the world s most powerful authoritarian regime, views the freedoms of democracy not just with suspicion but with existential fear, especially after experiencing Tiananmen Square at home and witnessing the fall of the Soviet Union and the Arab Spring abroad. As a result, the CCP will actively look to muzzle the freedoms and liberal values we enjoy in favor of increased social control not only in China but around the globe. The CCP-led government directs a substantial propaganda machine to shape the narrative across broadcast and social media globally. China is making investments to control the narrative in the U.S. through its financial sponsorship of think tanks & universities as well as influence through social media. The threat of the CCP s success is that an authoritarian regime s values are promoted and actively undermine democratic values and freedoms as well as the rule of law. China considers these four dimensions economic, geopolitical, military and ideological in an integrated fashion all under state control which gives its regime more flexibility in resource allocation and coordination. In fact, China is already engaging in conflict with the U.S. in each of these dimensions except military conflict. Past Policies are a Failure Since establishing formal diplomatic relations with China in 1979, the United States has focused on deepening engagement and facilitating China s economic rise, assuming that with global integration China would open to liberal values and adopt the role of a responsible global citizen. Nearly 40 years since diplomatic relations began and 16 years since Beijing s accession into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the U.S. now has enough evidence to know that this policy is not working. Worse, it is enabling Beijing to pursue ideological and geopolitical goals that undermine the U.S.-led international economic and political system. While there are significant problems that China must face in the coming years, its authoritarian system also brings many beneficial dimensions: stability and decisiveness of political direction, long-term planning horizons and the coordination of government, commercial and military sectors to achieve national aims. Given China s strengthening economy, investment in science and technology as well as complete control of its people and commercial sectors, the outcome of our strategic competition is by no means certain. This rivalry is much more dangerous than what we faced in the Cold War given that China s economic power is on a path to eclipse our own in the coming years. Time to Act However, with a whole-of-nation conviction and the right set of policies consistently applied, we can remain the global leader in science and technology with a vibrant economy, and newly-funded military strength. Further, we can reinforce our leadership role among the industrial democracies in a world order that reinforces our freedoms, rule of law and ensures global prosperity. A holistic and comprehensive counter-strategy is long overdue. Michael Brown, Presidential Innovation Fellow Pavneet Singh, Advisor to Office of Commercial & Economic Analysis, USAF April, 2018
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