Prospects and Challenges for the Doha Round
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1 Prospects and Challenges for the Doha Round Geza Feketekuty
2 The Doha Round negotiations will continue for at least three more years. Not only is there a great deal more work to be done, but also the United States is unlikely to have the negotiating authority to conclude the Round before There will be a great deal of hand wringing and gloomy assessments predicting the end of the multilateral trading system, but a prolongation of the negotiations by a few years is not in itself very damaging to the system. Every previous Round has gone through failed meetings and missed targets. Moreover, each succeeding Round has been more difficult because the issues that were left over were more complex and politically challenging, and therefore each succeeding Round has taken longer. The last Round took 9 years, and we can expect the Doha Round to take at least 10 years. At the same time, it may prove impossible to put together a politically viable deal even with the extension of the Round for a few more years. Such a failed outcome, while not the end of the multilateral trading system, could prove increasingly damaging as countries pursue bilateral free trade agreements with increasing vigor, at the expense of the expansion of the multilateral system. More and more countries have embarked on bilaterally negotiated free trade agreements, and so far at least that has not slowed down the global growth of trade. If unchecked by a dynamic multilateral process, however, an energetic pursuit of bilateral negotiations could increasingly lead to a fragmentation of the world market and become the source of geopolitical frictions. What are some of the challenges posed by the global economic environment? Most countries are getting a political backlash from globalization, and this means that governments will have to proactively commit themselves to mobilize a major political effort to obtain domestic support for a Doha Round package. Governments will have to mobilize that political effort proactively, largely on their own, because no stakeholder group in any of the major countries sees enough of a benefit in a foreseeable Doha Round package to expend a great deal of political effort to obtain it. The global firms are busily globalizing their production and sales networks, and while some trade and investment barriers and restrictive regulations limit some their options, it does not overly constrain them. Moreover, the major exporters in the developing world have been able to expand their exports at a rapid rate despite current barriers, and to some extent are even experiencing supply constraints. They therefore do not see an urgent need to conclude the Round, while at the same time their success has made it politically impossible for developed countries to agree to a package that does not include substantial commitments on their part. At the same time, there will be significant political opposition from many unions, NGO s, and farm groups in almost every country. While people with education and skills have been benefiting from the growth of trade and globalization in both developed and developing countries, people with little education and skills, and peasant farmers locked into subsistence agriculture in developing countries have not benefited from the growth of their economies. There are also problems with perceptions. Developing countries have argued that the principal beneficiaries of the multilateral trading system are the developed countries, 2
3 and that the developing countries should therefore not be expected to contribute much. Moreover, they argue that this is a development round, and market concessions would undermine economic development. In contrast, the domestic public in the major developed countries believe that the principal beneficiaries of the multilateral system today are China and India, whose exports have been growing very rapidly, and have been displacing production of manufactures and services respectively in their countries. Moreover, one of the principal arguments made by both developed and developing countries on why they cannot open their markets further is because China would take all of the market. What are some of the Major National Political Challenges that will need to be overcome? Aside from this generic global economic environment, there are special political factors in key countries that will need to be addressed. United States It is highly unlikely at this stage that President Bush and the Democratic Congress will agree on an extension of trade negotiating authority, if for no other reason because not enough progress has been made in the Doha Round and negotiating authority is therefore not seen as urgent. On the other hand, at this stage further progress in the Round is stymied because other countries are unlikely to make difficult political decisions when the United States is handicapped by the absence of negotiating authority. Whoever is elected President of the United States in 2008 will have to craft a political deal with Congress, whatever its composition, on trade negotiating authority. Traditionally, such a political deal requires a package that contains not only the negotiating authority, but also some toughening of U.S. trade laws, and parallel domestic legislation on issues such as adjustment assistance. The chances that a new President and a new Congress will make such a deal are very high because the stakes are so high. The United States has to be able to negotiate with other countries to protect overriding U.S. economic and strategic interests. It is inconceivable that the Congress would hamstring the power of the United States in world affairs by denying the President negotiating authority. Other countries have been emulating the United States in negotiating bilateral free trade agreements, and the lack of US negotiating authority will not prevent other countries to negotiate agreements that exclude the US. Moreover, sooner or later, the failure to conclude the Doha Round would erode the multilateral trading system that underpins the global economy, and the US like all other countries has a huge stake in the continued functioning of the global economy. The United States is not the only country with political challenges. Many European countries are facing both integration and globalization fatigue, and are not in a very outward looking mood. The key countries have recently gone through a transition of leadership, and these new leaders will not only have to establish a firm domestic political base, but also to make progress in domestic economic reforms, before they can afford to make difficult political decisions on further reform in agriculture. In China the recent Party Congress has established some new goals for reorienting economic policy towards more balanced growth, with greater emphasis on raising the income of rural areas and the interior provinces, addressing unmet social issues, and 3
4 creating domestic sources of growth, while de-emphasizing the export sector. It remains to be seen how China s top leadership translates those goals into actual programs that have a real impact on the economy, and they will need to make some progress in that direction before they can readjust their external policies with respect to further steps towards market liberalization and a more major adjustment of the exchange rate. While exchange rates are not part of the negotiations, it is difficult to see how an agreement can be achieved without a major Chinese contribution in the negotiations and a substantial appreciation of their exchange rate outside of the negotiating context. All of these policy adjustments will take time, and will not be easy to achieve. India has equally challenging political environment, due both to the unresolved political debate over the direction of national economic policy and tensions created by the growing gap between the winners and losers from the globalization process. What has to be in a Successful Doha Round Agreement? Periodically there is talk of a mini-package. Such a package would be dead on arrival because it would not generate enough benefits for enough stakeholders and for enough countries to make such a deal politically viable. The WTO requires consensus, and that means there have to be benefits for all countries to make such a consensus possible. Moreover, the political opposition that can be expected from antiglobalization groups in all the major countries means that even a mini package would face substantial political opposition, and could not be ratified in countries with democratic governments without active support from enough industries and farm organizations to overcome that opposition. These requirements cannot be met with a mini package. There has been a great deal of focus on agriculture, and clearly a major result in agriculture is a minimum requirement. The political difficulty of what the WTO is attempting to achieve cannot be underestimated, however. Support for farmers has strong political support in all countries, not least because rural voters have a disproportionate role in the political process of many, if not most, countries. The objective of the negotiations is not to eliminate such support altogether, but to remove the production and trade distorting aspects of such support. The Uruguay Round commitments were the first steps in that direction, and the objective for the Doha Round is to establish a firm plan for implementing such a policy over the coming years in the developed countries, and to make a good start in that direction for developing countries. While the major developing countries will also have to make commitments, particularly in the area of market access, there has to be an adequate carve-out for subsistence farmers in these countries. The reason why no deal is possible without new market access commitments in agriculture by the major agricultural importing countries is because there are not enough potential market access gains in the rest of the world to persuade farmers in the exporting countries to give up their subsidies. Once agreement is reached on an overall framework for cuts in subsidies and market access barriers, the haggling will start over exceptions and special treatment for particular products. There has been much wrangling over a tariff cutting formula, under which high tariff rates would get cut by higher percentages than lower tariff rates, and developed 4
5 countries would make deeper cuts at any particular level of tariff than developing countries. Both developed countries and developing countries that built their growth on exports will have to make real cuts in tariffs and create expanded market opportunities to reach a politically viable agreement. Once agreement on such a formula is reached, countries will negotiate over exceptions and lower cuts on tariffs for particularly sensitive products. The third major area is services, where negotiations have not gotten very far. Countries have exchanged requests and offers for the liberalization of restrictive measures hampering the export of particular services, The offers that have been made to date are rather minimal, and many countries have not made much of an offer at all. Moreover, countries have yet to establish some kind of framework and a set of benchmarks against which offers can be evaluated. There will be no agreement on a framework for agriculture and industrial tariffs without an agreement on how a substantive services package is to be negotiated, because there is not enough potential gain in agriculture and industrial tariffs for many countries in order to make a Doha Round package viable. A framework agreement in services will have to include agreement on some kind of benchmarks and a negotiating process that goes beyond the request offer process by building on the plurilateral requests that were submitted by a group of countries in various sectors. The fourth major area of the negotiations covers trade rules, and it is hard to tell what has been achieved in this area so far, and what a viable package would contain. Almost certainly it would need to include reforms in anti-dumping, with revisions that benefit countries that are affected by anti-dumping measures and revisions that benefit countries that use anti-dumping measures. Concluding all this work will still a lot of time, and it is unlikely that the negotiations could be wrapped up over the next year even if the United States had the negotiating authority. The Unresolved North South Debate The major visible divide in the negotiations today is the north south divide, though there are many other issues that have been camouflaged by that debate. It is difficult to see how an agreement can be reached on a framework for a Doha Round package, much less an agreement on a final deal, without an understanding between the major developed and developing countries on what they should be able to expect from each other and the rationale for a deal that can be sold to the public in both north and south. While there is always a gap between the rhetoric countries use to bolster their position in negotiations on one side and the real economic reasoning that underpins any final political bargain on the other side, there needs to be some mutual understanding of the rationale that underpins an actual agreement. There are three arguments that have to be addressed: 1. That market liberalization undermines economic development. 2. That developing countries need more policy space. 3. That developing countries with large numbers of subsistence farmers cannot make any commitments in agriculture. Developed and developing countries disagree on all three points. 5
6 Without prejudging have the differences can be bridged, a possible approach would be to establish a mutual public recognition that the rationale for trade negotiations is that market liberalization boosts domestic productivity and growth, but that market liberalization also creates market dislocations and social issues that need to be addressed, in part through a phasing of commitments at a socially acceptable rate, and partly through appropriate domestic measures. Moreover, it needs to be recognized that developing countries need more time to make such adjustment, and to carry out institutional and legal reforms that need to underpin many liberalization commitments. Developing countries with large numbers of subsistence farmers also need to be able to pursue policies that help to lift the income and productivity of these farmers, while at the same time recognizing that an increase in productivity in the farm sector implies the need for fewer farmers and an equal need to create alternative employment opportunities in the rural areas. At the same time, it is not in the interest of these countries to leave so much policy space that domestic political pressures will lead to an entrenchment of protectionist and high cost agricultural policies over the long run. The least developed countries, which includes most of Africa and the Pacific, and a sprinkling of Latin American countries and Asian countries, need to be given special consideration. Many of these countries have not been able to take advantage of the existing openness of the multilateral system partly because many of their exports are concentrated in areas that remain restricted, and partly because their under developed institutions, human resources, infrastructure and industrial capacity create supply bottlenecks. This creates the need for assistance for trade capacity building. The basic problem underlying the negotiations in this area is that trade ministers do not control the purse strings for development assistance, and countries have yet to confront how they will set up negotiations that can result in real commitments by decision makers who control the purse strings. What Will Happen If There is No Positive Outcome to the Doha Round? Building a global consensus on a Doha Round package is a major challenge, and no one should be surprised that it takes time. At the same time, the gap is now so wide and there is so little conviction among the major players on a compelling need to make politically difficult decisions, that a failure to conclude the Round in a few years time cannot be ruled out. The longer the negotiations drag out beyond the ten year mark, or fail altogether, is likely to set the world on the path towards greater and greater emphasis on the negotiation of bilateral and regional free trade agreements. While that could provide the foundation for a multilateral agreement at a later time, it could also set the world on path towards increasing geopolitical rivalry and an eroding respect for the multilateral disciplines of the WTO. One of the ironies is that the increasing complaints from NGOs in both the North and the South about the social consequences of globalization is that it could set some countries towards the negotiation of comprehensive agreements that cover social as well as economic issues. While that is not he intent of the anti-globalization forces, it is the likely result. This would leave countries that reject such an approach with difficult choices. 6
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