Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan. CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News

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1 Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News

2 ABC News/BBC/ARD poll in Afghanistan Fourth in a series since 2005 Field Dates: Dec. 30, 2008-Jan. 12, 2009 Interviews: 1,534 Coverage: Full national

3 Methodology: 194 random sampling points, stratified urban/rural, PPS to district, SRS at settlement level. Oversamples: Balkh, Helmand, Herat, Kandahar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, Wardak. Field: Random route, Kish grid. 176 Afghan interviewers, 86/90 w/m, 18% supervised or backchecked, logical controls in DP. Average 33-minute interview. Contact rate 91 percent, co-operation rate 95 percent, net RR 86 percent. Field work by Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research, subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc., Vienna, Va.

4 Baghlan (ACSOR photo)

5 Badakhshan (ACSOR photo)

6 Kunar (ACSOR photo)

7 Badakhshan (ACSOR photo)

8 Badghis (ACSOR photo)

9 Laghman (ACSOR photo)

10 Laghman (ACSOR photo)

11 Badghis (ACSOR photo)

12 Baghlan (ACSOR photo)

13 Badghis (ACSOR photo)

14 Baghlan (ACSOR photo)

15 Kandahar (ACSOR photo)

16 Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)

17 Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)

18 Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)

19 Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)

20 Bamiyan (ACSOR photo)

21 Field Reports

22 Pawran: The last explosion had a bad effect on people, they all seemed afraid and had concern about security. That explosion was in Charikar and killed seven and more than 10 were injured in the attack. Khost: The way is block(ed) due to heavy snow and people are facing problems when they have illness and other emergency cases. Last week coalition forces searched two houses and they killed the head of the family and injured women and children. These kinds of searches and operations make the people mad and sad. Kandahar: The city remains relatively calm, but in suburban areas there is no control of government according to the feeling of the people.

23 Nimroz: Taliban kidnapped two workers of voter registration program and they are searching cars on the roads, people want to have police stations on the whole way. Herat: There are reconstruction projects in most districts of Herat province and they are discussed by many people. Several members of the police force were arrested for helping Taliban on 30th December about a dozen others defected to the Taliban. Zabul: The people encountered by the field team complained about security and there was a sense of dissatisfaction with foreign forces, ANA (Afghan Army) and ANP (police) because they make problems for the people rather than help them. There were also complaints about the lack of medical facilities.

24 Ghazni: There has been an increase in reconstruction projects but the roads of some districts are blocked due to heavy snow and people are in economic problems. Paktika: People have complaints about high prices of foods and fuels. Takhar: Ahangran district villages received electricity and security has improved. Badghis: Voter registration process has started in the districts. People are starting to register. Farah: There is an impression that many younger people are trying to go to Iran to look for work and better security.

25 Just Today 2/11/09 19 killed, 54 injured in attacks on the Ministry of Justice and Prisons Department buildings in Kabul. About three hours after the first attacks in Kabul, ABC News received a call from the Taliban. The caller claimed there were more than 20 suicide attackers in the city. Of course totally unverifiable, but clearly an attempt to paralyze the city with fear.

26 Key Findings

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34 Reason 1: Security

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42 Resurgence of the Taliban

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54 Local Conditions/ Development

55 Demographic Profile 48% illiterate; 59%, no formal education 93% monthly incomes <$300; 54% <$100 55% have no electric power. Of rest: 15% own generator, 17% share generator, 13% power line 11% own a fridge, 12% a car, 38% a TV. Mobile phone steadily up; 31% in 2005, 55% now 72% of men employed, 5% women; of those working, 64% are farmers, laborers or artisans 56% of adults under age 35 (comp. 31% U.S.)

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65 Measuring the Effects

66 Regression Model Dependent variables Right direction Performance of central gov t Performance of provincial gov t Performance of United States Independent variables: Ratings, local conditions overall Ratings of local security Ratings of local jobs and economy Able to afford food Able to afford fuel Index (neg.) of local development Index of rebuilding Benefited from foreign aid Corruption a big problem Index of violence in past year Taliban gained strength Region Rural/nonrural Electricity Income, age, education, ethnicity, sex

67 Predicting: Right Direction Beta Sig. Kabul Rating local conditions overall Taliban gained strength Income Benefited from foreign aid Central Rating of local security Expect life better in a year

68 Predicting: Positive ratings of central government Beta Sig. Kabul Northwest Southwest Rating local conditions overall North Taliban gained strength Able to afford food Expect life better in a year Central East Non-Kabul Central Rating of local security Negative ratings of local development Income Index of violence in past year Rating of local jobs and economy Index of rebuilding

69 Predicting: Positive ratings of provincial government Beta Sig. Kabul Northwest Southwest Expect life better in a year Rating local conditions overall Negative ratings of local development Taliban gained strength Able to afford food Rating of local security

70 Predicting: Positive ratings of U.S. in Afghanistan Beta Sig. Southwest Rural Expect life better in a year East Rating of local jobs and economy Taliban gained strength Rating of local security Income Central East Non-Kabul Benefited from foreign aid

71 Security and Development Security and Development Both Sec G Sec B Both Good Dev B Dev G Bad All Afghanistan 31% 23% 20% 22% Central East North Northeast Northwest Central East Southeast Southwest

72 Security/Development Influence on Other Views Security and Development Both Sec G Sec B Both Good Dev B Dev G Bad (31%) (23%) (20%) (22%) Right direction 52% Positive rating of: Central gov t Provincial gov U.S. in Afghanistan

73 Further Challenges

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79 Ways Forward

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88 Thank you!

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