Toward Globalizing Reconstruction Initiatives

Transcription

1 Toward Globalizing Reconstruction Initiatives Takashi Mikuriya Professor, the Open University of Japan-OUJ A year and half has passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake of March11. In their initial phases the reconstruction initiatives of Japan were expanded on a global basis as tangible and intangible support was received from countries around the world. But at a certain point in time these initiatives turned inward-looking. With the nuclear plant accident presenting such huge problems, a tendency has developed to resist global standards. It seems that Japan, claiming to be an open country in terms of information, is becoming a closed country in terms of reconstruction. One reason for this account is that our Prime Minister has yet to send any message to the world as to what Japan under reconstruction intends to achieve. In other words, despite the fact that no other developed country has experienced such a severe disaster, our leader s words and deeds do not convey any sense of resolve that Japan now stands ready to lead the world through exemplary reconstruction. Why is that? We will discuss this subject here. 1 Post-war Era Ends and Post-disaster Era Begins. In 2001, soon after the 21 st century began, the 9.11 incident occurred. It was an event that had an incredible impact not only on the U.S. but also on the entire world, and as can be noted from a phrase - before and after the 9.11, the U.S. and the world has substantially changed. The Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011, or ten years after 9.11, is also remembered as 3.11 and may serve as another trigger to substantially change Japan and the world. What is the characteristic of 3.11? It was that the event was one of the largest-scale natural disasters to mankind. Unlike 9.11, which was human caused, that natural disaster should be interpreted as an event that occurred beyond the sphere of man s wisdom and gave a warning to mankind and its civilization. Develop Reconstruction Measures That Supersede Those Crafted by Goto Shinpei

2 3.11 may be referred to in various contexts but the easiest comparison can be made with the Great Kanto Earthquake that occurred on September 1, With a view to reconstructing Tokyo, the Teito (Imperial Capital) Reconstruction Agency was established within the government and Goto Shinpei ( ), who was the Interior Minister and also Mayor of Tokyo, was appointed as its governor. When developing reconstruction plans for the recent earthquake disaster, politicians and other parties involved in such planning will naturally use the historical analogy of the Great Kanto Earthquake to make a proposal to establish, for example, The Tohoku Reconstruction Agency patterned after the Imperial Capital Reconstruction Agency. Concerning this type of perspective to make a comparison with the Great Kanto Earthquake, I am critical of such easy analogy but at the same time I do not think that it is totally off the point. However, the problem that comes into the picture here is whether a contemporary Goto Shinpei will show up, and whether his method of reconstruction is still workable now. What sort of person was Goto Shinpei? His character may be best understood when he is compared with Hara Takashi ( ), another politician of his time. The Hara Takashi Cabinet that was formed in 1918 was Japan s first party cabinet and in this respect, Hara may be called a person who created party politics. On the other hand, Goto rejected political parties, won the patronage of the leading feudal provinces of Satsuma and Choshu, promoted national projects with this backing, and thus he is a project-type politician. Utilizing this style, he succeeded in the colonial control of Taiwan and the management of the South Manchurian Railway Co. Ltd., and after returning to Japan, he was instrumental in realizing and promoting a number of big projects including postal services, telegraph and telephone communications, and railway construction, and as mayor of Tokyo he developed the upgrade plan for the imperial capital. Then, was the imperial capital successfully reconstructed through Goto s project-type politics? On this point, I must say that it was a mixed bag as his reconstruction scheme was a failure from a political viewpoint but a partial success from a technical viewpoint. As the party cabinet was gaining momentum to be the mainstream system, the imperial reconstruction plan of Goto, who would not accept political parties, was drastically downsized by the (Rikken) Seiyukai Party that had overwhelming power in the Diet and Privy Councilor Ito Miyoji ( ). However, this does not mean that every piece of Goto s reconstruction plan criticized as tall talk was scrapped, and some of his ideas including Showa-dori with a wide greenbelt, the Sumidagawa Park serving as a waterfront space, elementary school buildings of non-combustible construction, and

3 Dojunkai Apartments were realized. (For details refer to Tokyo Urban Plan Story, a paperback book of Chikumashobo Ltd.) Assuming that these developments serve as a precedent, if a question is posed to me as to whether future reconstruction of the Tohoku region can be achieved with the Goto Shinpei-type project method that was blocked by party politics and democracy even at the time of the Great Kanto Earthquake, I have to be skeptical. In addition, unlike the imperial capital reconstruction that dealt with Tokyo or a single city, the regions hit by the latest disaster are enormously wide and besides have diverse topographies as flatlands, mountains, and valleys. In some regions, almost everything was swept away by the tsunami and everything has to be rebuilt from scratch, which takes much more than simple reconstruction. The regions affected are characterized by such primary industries as agriculture and fisheries and this can lead to a debate as to whether this pre-disaster industrial structure should be revitalized or shifts to other industries should be promoted. Considering a number of impacts on power supply in the Kanto region due to the accident at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant caused by the earthquake, not only the Tohoku region but also Tokyo and eventually all of Japan will be forced to change their industrial structures and energy structures. Furthermore, there is no end to the nuclear disaster, which could make some areas of this country uninhabitable. This means that it will take a long time to rebuild the nation and also it will take time for the disaster victims to rebuild their lives. Depending on how things develop in the future, many people may have to leave their hometowns and look for new places to live. If such scenario becomes a reality, promising regions that can accommodate these people will not be the Tokyo Area, which is subject to unstable power supply and threats of radioactive contamination, but western Japan. Then, the great migration of the race will take place for the first time since the end of the war, no- since the beginning of our modern times. In these diverse contexts, future national planning may be called a plan to build a new nation. To rebuild eastern Japan while keeping balance with western Japan unaffected by the latest disaster will require bold theme setting and flexible ability to create visions that exceed what supported the project-type reconstruction measures adopted by Goto Shinpei following the Great Kanto Earthquake. What the Reconstruction Committee Can Do Is Limited. Besides 9.11 and the Great Kanto Earthquake, there are some other events that can rival 3.11 in that they were transformative.

4 In the category of earth disasters, a comparison may be made with the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake that occurred on January 17, However, this has a few different points from the latest disaster. First, the regions hit by the earlier quake were limited in some measure. Kobe City was devastated but Osaka, the central city of the Kansai region, was spared fatal damage. Second, in the case of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, what caused the most extensive damage was collapsed buildings and fires unlike the latest disaster that was caused by tsunami. During 16 years since that time, making use of the lessons learned, disaster preparedness measures, including work to make school buildings more earthquake-resistant, were promoted nationwide even though there is much more work to do, and it may be said that our awareness of disaster-preparedness has been raised. But then, the latest disaster, which exceeded our assumptions, occurred. Third, this may also be said about the reconstruction of the imperial capital, but the reconstruction from the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake was something close to restoration and it was possible to feel the atmosphere of reconstruction after 10 years. But if new nation-building is required as in the case of the latest disaster, reconstruction plans certainly have to be a long-term undertaking of over 10 years and the question is whether or not such plans work to help disaster victims who have their hands full trying to sustain their daily lives. In the case of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, the model of the reconstruction policies was naturally Goto Shinpei and the Imperial Capital Reconstruction Agency. At that point in time, the tripartite coalition administration of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the Socialist Party of Japan (SPJ), and the Shinto Sakigake with Murayama Tomiichiro, President of the SPJ, serving as Premier was in place. Initially, Obuchi Keizo, vice-president of the LDP, played a central role in advocating the foundation of a reconstruction agency and a group led by Sakaiya Taichi, an economic analyst, supported the idea. However, due to infighting within the LDP, it did not materialize and instead the Reconstruction Committee for the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake set to function for a limited period of one year was established. Namely, it was decided to form a committee instead of establishing a new organization and to recommend reconstruction measures through the use of personal network built by Committee Chairman Atsushi Shimokobe, a former administrative vice minister of the National Land Agency. In regards to the latest disaster, it is quite questionable that such a light setup as a committee can realize reconstruction. Even the regions severely hit are quite extensive encompassing such multiple prefectures as Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, and Ibaraki.

5 Each prefecture and each municipality will naturally have to pay attention to the needs of its people but an organization for reconstruction to be newly established should exceed such scope and move forward with the process of selection and concentration on an arbitrary basis to some extent. To date, the necessity of decentralizing power has been advocated but when risk management must be systematically implemented, the relationship between the centralized power of the nation and decentralized powers of municipalities should be flexibly considered. At the Hanshin-Awaji Reconstruction Committee, I had the experience of handling oral history and compiling reports under Chairman Shimokobe concurrently with the activities of the Committee. I had two premonitions. Records and data of the Reconstruction Committee, a temporary organization established under the cabinet secretary, will certainly be lost. Oral history reports will be useful when a similar crisis occurs. With the Great East Japan Earthquake, my two premonitions proved dead right and I was much distressed. An Event Even Surpassing the Post-war Reconstruction In terms of the scale of destruction, 3.11 may be compared with the Great Tokyo Air Raids toward the end of WW II and post-war reconstruction. However, while Nagoya, for example, developed and realized urban plans to make the city neatly-gridded, and built 100 meter- wide roads over the land burned out by air raids, Tokyo was not so well organized. Barracks after barracks were built along roads that remained as narrow as before the Air Raids and the city was restored this way. In other words, even though the timing of restoration was the same, different regions restored and reconstructed themselves in different ways. This time, though, the situation is quite different in that new nation building must be advanced with the balance among all of the affected regions as well as the balance with the unaffected regions considered. One point common with the post-war reconstruction is how people recover from the feeling of having been battered will become a challenge. However, a substantial difference is that while the bombings could be anticipated to some extent, the scale of the latest disaster was beyond any anticipation, even though it was assumed that a large-scale quake would strike the region in the near future. May impression is that while people had a vague notion that they might be hit by such a disaster someday and should be prepared for it, they never thought that someday would be now, were off guard, and then the disaster suddenly came and shocked them.

6 After the defeat in war, there was a sense of release from militarism and the 15-year war. That led to hopes for tomorrow. But this time, the sense of release or hopes cannot be found anywhere. If this is the case, a possibility of pessimism and cynicism gaining popularity cannot be ruled out. The decades after the war were a developing period of new religions and many of the groups currently known as large new religious organizations were founded between the 1920 s through 50 s and attained sharp growth around the 1970 s. This time, with people looking for further spiritual salvation, it is conceivable that new new religious groups may come into existence one after another, ushering in the Age of Religion. From Post-war Era to Post-disaster Era As can be noted from above, 3.11 will leave a deeper impression on us Japanese than any other event that has taken place to date. And the postwar era that has stayed so long will finally end and what may be called the post-disaster era will begin. Since the defeat in war of 1945, there have been a number of discussions on when the postwar era that has lasted until now will end. The beginning of the post postwar era has also been defined in a number of ways by different scholars from the high economic growth period, from the oil shocks, from the breakdown of the Berlin Wall, from the collapse of the Bubble Economy and so forth. In the arena of politics, supported by the high economic growth which was extraordinary in the world and the world s preeminent administrative bureaucracy and in the framework of the 1955 regime, strong leadership was not required of the politicians. These characteristics of postwar politics were not broken even after Emperor Hirohito died, but later the 1955 regime broke down and the 21 st century arrived. The reason cited for this rigidity is that after the Pacific War there has not been any other war in Japan to provide a shared experience for the public. And that war (WW II) became the benchmark when talking about Japan inside and outside the country. The postwar era did not end but lingered. For the postwar era to end in Japan, another shared experience was needed. However, even though everyone was vaguely aware of such necessity, nobody dared to mention it. Shared experience could be a war or a huge natural disaster but it was deemed imprudent to openly mention such sentiment. Then 3.11 came and hit us ruthlessly. A major reason why 3.11 will be considered a shared experience of Japanese people in the future is that it was a combination of a natural disaster and a man-made disaster. The earthquake and the tsunami themselves are natural disasters. But the accident at the

7 Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant, as has already been pointed out, is largely attributable to human error. Due to this combination of natural disaster and man-made disaster, it has been realized that the supply of electricity, gasoline, and other items essential to life, which people have taken for granted like air, can actually be stopped or cut off not only in the Tohoku region but also in Tokyo and other regions that were not as seriously affected by the disaster. Many people must have been shocked considerably. But the unstable supply of vital items like electricity, gasoline, food, and other goods is expected to continue for some time to come. Under such circumstances, 3.11 will have to be a key factor to change the basic way of thinking and behavioral patterns of Japanese people on a long-term basis. This is why I believe that a new era called the post-disaster era will begin following 3.11, a combination of a natural disaster and a man-made disaster. However, it should be noted that even though the key factor was provided by the unfortunate event of 3.11, the change from the postwar era to the post-disaster era was an accidental necessity in that contemporary situations of Japanese society needed such change. Even though it was already evident, the modernization path led by the progress of scientific technologies, population growth, and high economic growth, on which Japan has run since the Meiji Restoration, was incapable of realizing self-transformation to a new society despite repeated calls for a paradigm shift. The force attempting to maintain the status quo worked so strong. But this time, not due to external pressure of foreign elements and not due to such internal pressure as civil commotions or riots but due to a so called natural disaster-caused pressure, a change has been forced on us. Actually, we must have been aware that a change from the modernization path has to be made. This can be understood from the popularity of discussions on such themes as sense of stagnation in Japanese society and inward-looking trend among Japanese. What Kind of Society Will Be Formed in The Post-disaster Era? Then, what kind of world will be the post-disaster society? So far, we Japanese have been punctual and hard-working, and have lived in competition with the outside world. In line with internationalization and progress in information technology, we have always been obsessed by the idea that we must change and we must progress further. In the post-disaster society, there will be more people willing to compete in the global arena. But if we are to engage in real competition, some elements of Japan may have to be discarded. On the other hand, Japan will never be number one in the world in terms

8 of GDP, and there is no doubt that many indexes expressed in numbers will continue falling. With this recognition, the mode of slow life, which prioritizes settling down and living at leisure in this country without much regard to what goes on overseas, will be more clearly accepted than ever. While information technology in society progresses, attempts will be made to build a society of co-existence without excess efforts in which the experience and wisdom of elderly people are duly evaluated and the fact that Japanese society is aging is straightforwardly accepted. Hayabusa that debuted on the Tohoku Shinkansen, whose track was fully extended to Shin-Aomori on March 5, 2011, became inoperative in less than a week as elevated bridges and electric poles and other facilities were damaged in more than 500 places by the earthquake. Full operation of the Kyushu Shinkansen was started on March 12, 2001, but commemorative ceremonies and events to celebrate the opening were cancelled because of the disaster in the Tohoku region that occurred the previous day. These developments may be interpreted as a key occasion to question the emphasis so far placed on speed in a symbolic sense. In politics as well, there will be reorganization of parties in line with changes in society. On one hand, a political party that introduces an ideology to stand ready to compete globally and wholly accept the challenges of internationalization will be needed. On the other hand, even though we cannot be completely self-sufficient, some other party that accepts Japan becoming a Galapagos Islands, an isolated society in the world, may appear. Global Significance of 3.11 The post-disaster era is not confined to Japan alone. As far as our neighboring countries - South Korea, North Korea and China- are concerned, they will rethink the existence of Japan and their relations with us. That war has been absolutized so far with frequent reference to postwar and it cannot be denied that, in some respect, these countries have formed their politics and international relations by taking every opportunity to blame Japan and criticize us on such themes as wartime responsibility. After 3.11, it will become more difficult for them to regard Japan with hostile and adopt diplomatic policies to lodge complaints against us at every opportunity. In addition, North Korea, suspected to be engaged in nuclear development, must have recognized how difficult it is to develop and manage nuclear materials in the face of the accident at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Plant. In Japan-US relations, emphasis so far has been placed on means to improve the

9 relations that deteriorated so much under the Hatoyama Administration, but after 3.11 restructuring the relationship, particularly in the area of security, will move forward. The earthquake itself was a natural disaster but ideally the government should have held a security council right after the quake to establish risk management systems and in this respect it must be said that for the post-disaster security of Japan, US cooperation is essential. The Okinawa issue may be discussed within the framework of such a mutual relationship. Not only in terms of relations with East Asia and the U.S., 3.11 will also provide Japan with an opportunity to be released from past international tensions in a sense and to build new relations with the world. Additionally, 2011 will likely be a significant year in world history not only because of Prior to the disaster, a big wave of democratization called the Arab Spring in the Middle East occurred and in Egypt and other countries, people have risen in revolt and are in the process of overthrowing dictators regimes. In this series of revolutions toward democratization, social network services (SNS), such as twitter and Facebook, have played an important role. Also in the case of the disaster, while it became temporarily difficult to communicate over cell phones, twitter was found to be a very effective tool for safety confirmation. On two different arenas - revolutions toward democratization and natural disasters - grand experiments of these new tools are taking place and this will have not a small significance on the shape of the world in the future. Set up a Forum to Discuss Reconstruction Policies in 100 Days Now, let us think what politics should be like in the future in light of the change to the post-disaster society. In the past four to five years, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) have continually locked horns and the political situation in which the Premier is changed every year has continued for five terms. Previously, I expected that politics would change along with changes in administrations but looking back on the one and half years since the administrations actually changed in September of 2009, I must say that the deterioration of politics has accelerated. Many people may have forgotten already, but what was the hot topic just before 3.11? Suspicions that Seiji Maehara, former foreign minister and Kan Naoto, Premier at the time, received donations from foreign nationals living in Japan surfaced and the opposition parties were considering presenting a censure motion in the Upper House. All is over! 3.11 then occurred and was like a slap on the deteriorated politics. Since there is no

10 room for wasting energy on non-essential matters, the Kan Administration has had to be continued for some time, and efforts should be concentrated on considering how to do our best with what is given to us. Under the current emergency, politicians should not stick to such formality as grand coalition so much, and there will be no need to rule out an option to obtain wide-ranging cooperation from opposition parties from the standpoint of securing the right human resources. Leadership should be established with all the measures considered, and political decision-making and policy implementation should be expedited with all such obstacles as laws stipulate this and that, and opposition parties must be persuaded to agree to their revisions and so forth, leading to waste of much time. On March 19, Premier Kan asked President Tanigaki of the LDP to join the Cabinet as Vice Premier and Minister in Charge of Reconstruction from the Earthquake Disaster but the LDP rejected this proposal. The reason why the vision of an all-party cabinet did not materialize was mainly the clumsiness on the part of the Kan Administration that failed to observe procedures and courtesy required for obtaining cooperation from opposition parties. On the other hand, there may be a considerable number of people who would criticize the LDP with comments like the LDP is high-handed and the LDP is making various suggestions for reconstruction but actually, they are probably not so confident. Following these developments, it seems that much improvement is needed for speeding up political processes. Anyway, the political environment will be different from the past and it will become easier to display leadership. In the past, there were all sorts of tasks placed in front of the politicians causing them to fail to prioritize and select essential policies and then make decisions for execution. For example, Premier Hatoyama Yukio attempted to relocate the U.S. Futenma Airbase outside of Okinawa prefecture but failed and then resigned, and Premier Kan in the Upper House election of 2010 proposed tax reforms including a consumption tax hike but the DPJ lost many seats in the Upper House and was immobilized as the Diet was twisted with the Lower House controlled by the ruling parties and the Upper House by the opposition parties. From now on, the task of highest priority and of most importance is new nation building including reconstruction of the Tohoku region. Under this setting, needless political agendas that the DPJ are anxious to implement now that they have been presented in their manifesto for collecting votes such as child allowance and elimination of expressway tolls included in the 2011 fiscal budget can be scrapped. What is required now is to systematically identify various problems, draw up grand visions, and consolidate political power to implement these visions. This is how leadership will be

11 established. However, in order to realize this scenario, maverick human resources must be chosen as was the case with Goto Shinpei. Do we have promising candidates who may be able to fill his shoes or not? Reconstruction from 3.11 is, in a sense, a God-given task and unless we deal with it seriously, the country will really perish. We must realize that the post-disaster society can turn into the final society and as a specific step we should set up a forum within 100 days from the disaster, in which wisdom toward reconstruction may be shared before faits accomplis are accumulated and make it difficult to implement integrated reconstruction measures. (May 2011 issue of CHUOKORON )