One Year Later Egyptians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life

Transcription

1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: TUESDAY MAY 8, 0, PM ET Muslim Brotherhood and Military Receive Positive Ratings One Year Later ians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life Pew Global Attitudes Project: Andrew Kohut, President, Pew Research Center Richard Wike, Associate Director Juliana Menasce Horowitz, Senior Researcher Katie Simmons, Research Associate Jacob Poushter, Research Analyst Cathy Barker, Research Assistant Pew Research Center: James Bell, Director of International Survey Research, Pew Research Center Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes, Pew Research Center Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President, Pew Research Center For Media Inquiries Contact: Richard Wike Vidya Krishnamurthy

2 May 8, 0 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Overview: ians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life About the Project 6 Chapter : National Conditions and Views About the Future 7 Chapter : Key Leaders, Groups and Institutions 0 Chapter : Attitudes Toward Democracy Chapter : Role of Islam in Politics 7 Chapter : Views of the United States and Israel 0 Survey Methods Survey Topline Copyright 0 Pew Research Center

3 One Year Later ians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life Muslim Brotherhood and Military Receive Positive Ratings Despite economic difficulties and political uncertainty, ians remain upbeat about the course of the nation and prospects for progress. Amid rancorous debates over the presidential election and the shape of a new constitution, most ians continue to want democracy, with two-in-three saying it is the best form of government. ians also want Islam to play a major role in society, and most believe the Quran should shape the country s laws, although a growing minority expresses reservations about the increasing influence of Islam in politics. When asked which country is the better model for the role of religion in government, Turkey or Saudi Arabia, 6% say the latter. However, most also endorse specific democratic rights and institutions that do not exist in Saudi Arabia, such as free speech, a free press, and equal rights for women. National Mood Still Positive Way things are going in the country % % % Satisfied 8 6 Dissatisfied 69 Don t know 6 Opinion about the future Optimistic -- 7 Pessimistic Neither (Vol) Don t know -- PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q & Q. Rating Parties and Organizations Muslim Brotherhood April 6 Movement Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Freedom and Justice Party % Favorable Seven-in-ten ians express a view of the Muslim Brotherhood, down just al-nour Party slightly from 7% a year ago. Most (6%) also ian Bloc 8 have a positive opinion of the Brotherhoodaffiliated PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q7h-l & Q7o. Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the largest party in the newly elected parliament. The more conservative al-nour fares less well: % have a and % an view of the Salafist party. Hazem Salah Abu

4 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Ismail, a Salafist leader who was recently disqualified as a presidential candidate, gets somewhat better ratings (% positive, % negative). Presidential contender Amr Moussa receives overwhelmingly positive marks, with 8% expressing a positive opinion of the former Foreign Minister and Arab League chief. Meanwhile, 8% have a view of moderate Islamist presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. The April 6 th Movement, a loose organization of mostly young and secular activists that played a key role in the demonstrations that forced Hosni Mubarak from office, is rated favorably by 68% of ians. However, the ian Bloc, a mostly secular coalition of political parties, is not popular just 8% assign it a positive rating. While many have criticized the military in recent months for its handling of the post-mubarak transition, it continues to be largely well-regarded. Three-in-four ians believe the military is having a good influence on the country, and 6% hold a positive opinion of the ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF). And while ratings for SCAF Chairman Mohamed Tantawi have declined significantly from last year s 90%, they remain high at 6%. Most ians support civilian control of the military, but other key institutional features of democracy are considered higher priorities. Roughly six-in-ten (6%) say civilian control is an priority, but only % consider it very, essentially unchanged from 7% in 0. In contrast, 8% believe a fair judiciary is very, similar to last year s 8%. Views toward other key democratic rights and institutions also show little change since last year. These are among the principal findings from a nationwide survey of by the Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with,000 adults in between March 9 and April 0, 0. The poll finds little change in Economy and Fair Courts Are Top Priorities % 0 0 Change % % Improved economic conditions Fair judiciary Uncensored media Law and order Free speech Honest elections 8 + Religious parties can be part of gov t Same rights for women as men 9 + Religious freedom Uncensored access to the internet Civilian-controlled military 7 - PEW RESEARCH CENTER Qa-k.

5 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project ian perceptions of the United States. Only 9% offer a positive rating of the U.S. and just 9% express confidence in President Obama. The survey also finds ongoing opposition to the peace treaty between and Israel: 6% prefer to annul the treaty, up from % a year ago. Desire for Democracy, But Also Order and Growth ians continue to voice confidence in democracy. Two-thirds consider it preferable to any other kind of government, while just 9% say in some circumstances a nondemocratic form of government may be best, and just % believe it doesn t really matter what kind of government rules the country. Roughly six-in-ten (6%) think democracy is best-suited for solving the country s problems, while only % say a leader with a strong hand would be better equipped for dealing with these challenges. Continued Support for Democracy 0 0 % % Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government 7 67 In some circumstances, a nondemocratic government can be 7 9 preferable For someone like me, it doesn t matter what kind of government 0 we have Don t know Which is better able to solve 0 0 country s problems? % % Democracy 6 6 Strong leader At the same time, it is clear that ians also want law and order: six-in-ten consider this a very priority. And the economy Don t know PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q & Q7. 6 remains a major concern. About eight-in-ten (8%) say improving economic conditions should be a top priority. Just 7% describe the country s economic situation as good, down from % in 0. Still, on balance, ians remain optimistic about their economic future: 0% expect the economy to improve over the next months, only 0% think it will worsen, and 8% believe it will stay about the same. A growing number of ians sees Islam as playing a major role in the political life of the country 66% currently compared with 7% in 00. For the most part, those who believe Islam is playing a large role see this as good for the country, but more disagree with that view this year than last. Conflicting views about the role of religion in politics are also seen in the significant numbers who say Saudi Arabia is the best model for, yet endorse key features of democracy. Among those who choose Saudi Arabia over Turkey as the best model for, two-thirds also say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. More than sixin-ten say it is very to live in a country with a free press (6%), honest multiparty elections (6%), and freedom of speech (6%).

6 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project U.S. Image Still Negative America s image remains overwhelmingly negative only 9% offer a opinion of the U.S., basically unchanged from 0% in 0. But a large majority does not see the U.S. as having a major influence on political developments in. Confidence in Obama Slips Further ian opinions about President Obama have grown steadily more negative over the course of his presidency. In a 009 poll conducted a few months after he took office, ians were divided over the new American president: % expressed a great deal or some confidence that he would do the right thing in world affairs; 7% said they had little or no confidence. Today, 9% have confidence in Obama, while 69% lack confidence Confidence No confidence Although the U.S. has sent billions of dollars in aid to over the last few decades, few believe it is helping the country. Indeed, roughly six-in-ten say both American military and economic aid are having a mostly negative impact on. Despite these negative sentiments, a majority of ians says either they want the U.S.- relationship to stay about as close as it has been in recent years (%) or become even closer (0%), while 8% would like to see relations become less close. Overall, ians believe the U.S. exerts a limited influence on their country s tumultuous politics. When asked whether the PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q0a. U.S. Influence Irrelevant to Current Political Situation DK % Negative % Positive % Neither (Vol) 6% PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q0. For the 009 survey in, conducted May -June, 90 interviews were completed prior to Obama s June speech in Cairo and 0 interviews were completed after the speech.

7 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project American response to s political situation is having a positive or negative impact, 6% say it is having neither. Moreover, few believe there is a hidden Western hand behind the country s ongoing protests. Just % say the demonstrations are a result of Western efforts to destabilize, while 7% think the protests reflect genuine ian discontent with the country s political situation. Also of Note: Six-in-ten say the People s Assembly, s newly elected lower house of parliament, is having a positive influence on the country, while 9% believe it is having a negative effect. Four-in-ten believe that under an FJP-led government women will have more rights than they had in the past, while 7% say they will have fewer rights. Roughly three-inten (%) think women will have about the same rights as in the past. Views toward one-time presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei have soured. In 0, 7% held a positive view of the former International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) chief, while just 9% rated him negatively. Now opinions are divided: 8%, 0%. Fayza Abul Naga, the ian Cabinet official who led efforts to prosecute American NGO representatives (as well as representatives from ian and other foreign NGOs) enjoys little popularity. Abul Naga, who is a holdover from the Mubarak era, receives a rating from % of ians, while 0% offer a negative assessment.

8 About the Pew Global Attitudes Project The Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project conducts public opinion surveys around the world on a broad array of subjects ranging from people s assessments of their own lives to their views about the current state of the world and issues of the day. The project is directed by Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan fact tank in Washington, DC, that provides information on the issues, attitudes, and trends shaping America and the world. The Pew Global Attitudes Project is principally funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts. Since its inception in 00, the Pew Global Attitudes Project has released numerous major reports, analyses, and other releases, on topics including attitudes toward the U.S. and American foreign policy, globalization, terrorism, and democracy. Pew Global Attitudes Project team members include Richard Wike (Associate Director), Juliana Menasce Horowitz, Katie Simmons, Jacob Poushter, and Cathy Barker. Other contributors to the project include Pew Research Center staff members James Bell (Director, International Survey Research), Bruce Stokes (Director, Global Economic Attitudes), and Elizabeth Mueller Gross (Vice President), as well as Bruce Drake, Neha Sahgal, Carroll Doherty, and Michael Dimock. Additional members of the team include Mary McIntosh, president of Princeton Survey Research Associates International, and Mike Mokrzycki. The Pew Global Attitudes Project team regularly consults with survey and policy experts, regional and academic experts, journalists, and policymakers whose expertise provides tremendous guidance in shaping the surveys. Pew Global Attitudes Project Public Opinion Surveys Survey Sample Interviews Summer 00 Nations 8,6 November 00 6 Nations 6,06 March 00 9 Nations,0 May 00 Publics*,98 Spring 00 9 Nations 7,76 Spring 00 7 Nations 7,766 Spring 006 Nations 6,70 Spring Publics*,9 Spring 008 Nations,77 Spring 009 Publics* 6,97 Fall 009 Nations,760 Spring 00 Nations,790 Spring 0 Publics* 9, Spring 0 Nations 6,0 * Includes the Palestinian territories. The Pew Global Attitudes Project s co-chairs are on leave through 0. The project is co-chaired by former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright, currently principal, the Albright Stonebridge Group, and by former Senator John C. Danforth, currently partner, Bryan Cave LLP. All of the project s reports and commentaries are available at The data are also made available on our website within two years of publication. Findings from the project are also analyzed in America Against the World: How We Are Different and Why We Are Disliked by Andrew Kohut and Bruce Stokes, published by Times Books. A paperback edition of the book was released in May 007. For further information, please contact: Richard Wike Associate Director, Pew Global Attitudes Project / rwike@pewresearch.org 6

9 . National Conditions and Views About the Future The ian national mood improved dramatically following the February 0 resignation of Hosni Mubarak, and today ians remain generally positive about their country s path and its future prospects. Still, less than half say things have actually gotten better for ians since Mubarak left office, and few describe the current economic situation as good. Moreover, lower-income ians are decidedly less upbeat about current conditions in the country, as well as its future direction. The survey finds little consensus regarding what the future may hold for women and religious minorities under a government led by the Muslim Brotherhood s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP). A 0%-plurality says women will have more rights, while a similar percentage say religious minorities will have fewer rights. National Mood Still Mostly Positive On balance, ians believe the country is currently headed in the right direction, with Country Direction % saying they are satisfied with the way Satisfied Dissatisfied things are going in the country, down from 6% in 0, but still considerably higher than 80 in the final years of the Mubarak era Low-income ians are more downbeat about the state of the nation. Only % of those with a low household income are 0 8 satisfied with the country s direction, compared with 6% of those in the high- 0 income category and 60% of middle-income respondents. Last year, low-, middle-, and PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q. high-income ians were about equally satisfied with the way things were going in the country. For income, respondents are grouped into three categories of low, middle and high. Low-income respondents are those with a reported monthly household income of,000 ian pounds or less, middle-income respondents fall between the range of,00 to,00 ian pounds per month, and those in the high-income category earn,0 ian pounds or more per month. 7

10 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Views about the country s direction are also related to education. Roughly two-thirds of college graduates (66%) are satisfied with the way things are going, compared with % of those with a secondary education and 6% of ians with a primary education or less. ians, on balance, remain hopeful about the future: % say they are optimistic, just 8% are pessimistic, and 8% volunteer they are neither pessimists nor optimists. This is very similar to last year, when 7% were optimistic, 6% pessimistic, and 6% said neither. Optimism is especially common among wealthier ians. Nearly two-thirds (6%) of those with high incomes are positive about the future, compared with % of middle- and 9% of low-income respondents. Economy Seen as Weak, But Most Remain Optimistic Views about s economy are largely negative. Only 7% describe the national economic situation as good, down from % last year. However, while few believe the nation s current economic situation is good, half of ians expect it to improve over the next months, down slightly from 0 when 6% believed the country s economy would improve in the coming year. Currently, just 0% think the ian economy will worsen in the next months, while 8% expect it to stay about the same. Economic Conditions - Current economic Change situation % % % Good Bad Don t know 0 0 Over the next months, the economy will Improve Remain the same Worsen Don t know 0 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q & Q. Poor ians are less optimistic. While 7% of both high- and middle-income ians expect the economy to improve, just % of low-income respondents share this view. 8

11 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Mixed Assessments of the Post-Mubarak Era Less than half of ians say things have improved in the country since Mubarak was forced from office. Just over four-in-ten (%) say is better off now that Mubarak is not in power, 6% believe the country is worse off, and another 6% say things are neither better nor worse. Opinions on this question are closely linked to how people assess the national economy. Fully 76% of those who say the economy is in good shape believe things are better since Mubarak was deposed. In contrast, only % of those describing the economy as bad believe the country is better off now that Mubarak is out of power. The Future for Women and Religious Minorities Opinions are mixed about what the future will be like for women and religious minorities in a political environment dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and its political party, the FJP. A 0%-plurality thinks women will have more rights under a FJP-led government than they have had in the past; 7% say they will have fewer rights; and % say they will have about the same rights. Men and women generally share the same views on this question. Meanwhile, 0% of ians think religious minorities will have fewer rights under an FJP government. Only % believe religious minorities will have more rights and % believe they will have about the same rights as they do now. Women Seen As Having More Rights Under FJP, But Not So for Religious Minorities Under FJP-led government Women will have Religious minorities will have % % More rights 0 Fewer rights 7 0 About the same Don t know Figures may not add to % because of rounding. PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q6 & Q6b. 9

12 . Key Leaders, Groups and Institutions Despite the country s ongoing political conflict, many of the organizations and leaders that played key roles in last year s upheaval, such as the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and the April 6 Movement, remain popular. While the military s ratings may have dropped somewhat since 0, a majority of ians continues to hold a positive view of the military, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), and SCAF s Chairman Mohamed Tantawi. Views of Military Down But Still Positive % Positive 0 0 Change % % Influence of military Tantawi favorability SCAF favorability For military, percent very or somewhat good influence on the country shown. For Tantawi and SCAF, percent very or somewhat shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q6c & Q7a,o. The Muslim Brotherhood also continues to be highly regarded. Opinions toward other religious groups and leaders, however, are mixed. The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the political party affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a moderate Islamist who broke with the Muslim Brotherhood to run for president, are slightly less well-reviewed. ians are less toward more conservative religious parties and leaders, such as al-nour and Hazem Salah Abu Ismail. Amr Moussa, prior Secretary General of the Arab League and a former foreign minister under Mubarak, is the most popular among the political leaders asked about in the survey. Other secular leaders and groups do not fare as well. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and an figure in the protests against Mubarak, has dropped somewhat in favorability since 0. The ian Bloc, a coalition of liberal and secular political parties, is also rated negatively. Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Fayza Abul Naga, who was instrumental in the recent investigation of American non-governmental organizations operating in, receives poor ratings. Political institutions, such as the court system and the People s Assembly, receive mostly positive reviews for their influence on the country. The local police, however, are generally viewed negatively. 0

13 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Rating Institutions Religious leaders and the military continue to be the most highly-rated groups in. About eight-in-ten (8%) ians say religious leaders have a very or somewhat good influence on the country, including 6% who say their influence is very good. Religious Leaders, Military Receive High Ratings % / good 0 0 Change % % Religious leaders Military Media Despite the considerable political turmoil that Central Security Forces Court system has surrounded the military over the past year, People s Assembly a broad majority (7%) of ians continues Local police to say it has a good influence, including % PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q6c-f & Q6h-jEGY. who say very good. While ratings for the military remain high, positive ratings have fallen by points since 0. The drop has been especially large among women and lowerincome respondents. In 0, 8% of women said the military s influence was very good; today, only 8% say the same. Among lower-income ians, the change was from 69% saying very good in 0 to 6% now. The media such as television, radio, newspapers, and magazines receives high marks from all sectors of ian society, with 70% of the public expressing a positive assessment. Other institutions that do well are the court system, the People s Assembly, and the Central Security Forces. The court system is rated positively by 6% of ians, falling somewhat from 67% in 0. Similarly, about six-in-ten believe the People s Assembly (60%) and the Central Security Forces (6%), a national law enforcement organization, have a very or somewhat good influence. Opinions about the local police are much more negative. Just over a third (7%) of ians views the local police as having a good influence, while a majority (6%) rates it as very or somewhat bad, including % who say very bad.

14 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Rating Political Groups and Parties The Muslim Brotherhood and April 6 Movement two key groups involved in last year s Tahrir Square demonstrations continue to be viewed favorably, as they were right after the uprising in 0. About sevenin-ten ians rate both groups positively, including almost a third who give both groups a very rating. Muslim Brotherhood, April 6 Movement Remain Popular % Favorable 0 0 Change % % Muslim Brotherhood April 6 Movement SCAF PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q7h-i, o. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is also well-regarded by a majority, despite recent concerns that SCAF will not hand over power to a democratically-elected president next month. About six-in-ten (6%) ians have a positive attitude toward SCAF, including 0% very. Among the major political parties included on the survey, the Freedom and Justice Party and al-wafd Party, a secular party which has held legal status since 978, receive the highest ratings. The FJP is reviewed positively by 6% of ians and % are toward al- Wafd. Favorable Ratings of Political Parties FJP al-wafd al-wasat al-nour Un 0 8 Favorable 6 6 ians are divided on both al-wasat Party, a group that broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood in the 990 s, and al-nour Party, ian Bloc 7 8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q7j-n. the largest party associated with the conservative Salafists. Just under half (6%) rate al- Wasat positively and a similar percentage (8%) rates them negatively. Equal percentages (%) are and toward al-nour. The liberal, secular ian Bloc is the least popular of the major political groups that hold seats in the People s Assembly. About four-in-ten (8%) ians hold opinions of the ian Bloc and nearly half (7%) are. Since Mubarak left office in 0, there has been considerable political conflict between the Freedom and Justice Party, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and the

15 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project ian Bloc. Despite this conflict at the elite level, the supporters of these various groups among the public do not exhibit the same level of polarization. Instead, people who are toward one of these organizations tend to also view the other groups positively. For example, among those who rate the ian Bloc favorably, over half also rate the FJP (%) and SCAF (70%) positively. Among those who are toward the FJP, 80% are toward SCAF. And among SCAF supporters, 7% are positive toward the FJP. These patterns suggest the general public is not yet making strong distinctions between the leading political groups. Rating Political Leaders Current presidential candidate Amr Moussa is very popular with the ian public: 8% give him ratings, down only slightly from 89% in 0. Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi is also wellregarded by a majority (6%) of ians, although his favorability rating has fallen from last year s 90%. The decline has been especially steep among women: 9% express a positive view of him now, compared with 9% a year ago. Favorable Ratings of Leaders % Favorable 0 0 Change % % Moussa Tantawi Nour Aboul Fotouh Abu Ismail ElBaradei Abul Naga PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q7a-g. Ayman Nour, founder of the liberal al-ghad party and a critic of SCAF, receives high marks from 6% of ians. Similarly, about six-in-ten (8%) rate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh positively. The public expresses less opinions about both Hazem Salah Abu Ismail and Mohamed ElBaradei. Abu Ismail, a conservative Salafist presidential candidate who was recently disqualified from the race, receives reviews from % of ians and reviews from %.

16 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project ElBaradei s ratings have slipped somewhat from 7% in 0 to 8% today. Support for ElBaradei has dropped the most among younger people his ElBaradei s Favorability Drops Among Young People % Favorable strongest supporters in 0 (6% ) are now 0 0 Change his weakest (6% ). Age % % Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Fayza Abul Naga is the least popular among the PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q7b. political leaders included on the survey. Just over a third (%) of ians are toward Abul Naga, while half (0%) are and % offer no opinion.

17 . Attitudes Toward Democracy As their country grapples with a difficult political transition, ians continue to believe democracy is the best form of government and most trust it more than a strong leader to solve the nation s problems. Moreover, ians not only value democracy in a general sense they also value specific features of a democratic society. For instance, solid majorities say it is very to live in a country with a fair judiciary, a free media, and freedom of speech. Still, the economy also remains a top priority, and ians are almost equally divided over whether a good democracy or a strong economy is more for their country. Democracy Is a Priority, But So Is Economy Two-thirds of ians believe democracy is preferable to any other type of government. Just 9% say in some circumstances, a nondemocratic form of government may be preferable, while % say that, for someone like them, it does not matter what kind of government has. This is basically unchanged from last year, when 7% said democracy was the best form of government. Confidence in democracy is somewhat higher now than in 00, when sixin-ten ians said it was preferable to other political systems. Most continue to believe a democratic government, rather than a strong leader, is best equipped to deal with the country s problems. Roughly six-in-ten (6%) hold this view, similar to last year s 6%, but significantly higher than the 0% registered in 007. Opinions are divided, however, when ians are asked to choose between Views of Democracy Stable Over Last Year % % % Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government In some circumstances, a non-democratic government 7 9 can be preferable For someone like me, it doesn t matter what kind of 6 0 government we have Don t know PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q. Which Is More Important? % % % Democracy Strong leader 7 Don t know % % % Good democracy 7 8 Strong economy 9 9 Don t know PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q7 & Q7.

18 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project democracy and the economy. About half (8%) say a good democracy is more and about half (9%) say a strong economy should be the priority. Results on this question were almost exactly the same one year ago. Most Value Specific Democratic Rights, Institutions ians believe many key features of democracy are crucial to their country s future. Roughly eight-in-ten (8%) say it is very to live in a country with a fair judicial system, and solid majorities rate a free press (6%), free speech (60%), and honest Fair Courts and the Economy Are Top Priorities multiparty elections (8%) as very. % Other key democratic rights and institutions, while considered at least somewhat by a majority of ians, do not register as Fair judiciary Improved economic conditions 8 8 top priorities. In particular, only % say that Uncensored media 6 having a military that is under control of civilian leaders is very. Less than half say that equal rights for women (%), Law and order Freedom of speech religious freedom for minorities (8%), and uncensored internet access (%) are very. And while most ians value democracy, it is clear that the economy and social order also rank as high priorities. About eight-in-ten (8%) believe improved economic conditions are very and 60% say this about law Honest elections Religious parties can be part of gov't Same rights for women as men Freedom of religion for minorities Uncensored access to internet Civilian-controlled military and order. PEW RESEARCH CENTER Qa-k. 6

19 . Role of Islam in Politics Most ians continue to believe that Islam is playing a positive role in their country s politics, although the percentage who say its role is negative has increased from a miniscule % in 00 to % today. ians clearly want Islam to play a role in shaping the nation s laws indeed, a majority says s laws should strictly adhere to the Quran. And most say they see Saudi Arabia as a model for the role of religion in government, rather than more secular Turkey. Laws Should Be Based on Quran Six-in-ten ians want their laws to strictly follow the Quran. About a third (%) want them to conform to the principles of Islam but not strictly follow the Quran, and just 6% say the Quran should not have an influence. Smaller Majority Sees Role of Islam in Politics as Positive* 8 Positive view of role of Islam Negative view of role of Islam * Respondents who have a positive view of Islam s influence include those who say Islam is playing a large role in their country s political life and see this as a good thing and those who say Islam is playing a small role and see this as a bad thing. Respondents who have a negative view of Islam s influence include those who say Islam is playing a large role in their country s political life and see this as a bad thing and those who say Islam is playing a small role and see this as a good thing. PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q6 & Q6. Most Want Laws to Follow Quran These attitudes are virtually unchanged from 0, when 6% said strictly follow the Quran, 7% wanted to just follow the principles of Islam, and % said no influence. Strictly follow the Quran 60% Follow the values and principles of Islam % Older ians are especially likely to believe laws should strictly follow the Quran: more than two-thirds of those 0 or older (68%) agree with this position, compared with about half (%) of 8-9 year-olds. DK % Not be influenced by the Quran 6% Which of the following three statements comes closer to your view laws in our country should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran, laws in our country should follow the values and principles of Islam but not strictly follow the teachings of the Quran OR laws in our country should not be influenced by the teachings of the Quran? PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q9. 7

20 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project A similar split arises by education. For example, 68% of those with a primary education or less want to strictly follow the Quran, while just % of the college-educated want the same. ians with a secondary or college education are now points less likely than in 0 to believe the country s laws should strictly follow the Quran. On the other hand, among those with a primary education or less, the percentage who hold this view has increased by 0 points. Younger, Higher-Educated Less Likely Than Others to Say Strictly Follow Quran % Strictly follow Quran 0 0 Change Age % % Education Primary or less Secondary 6 - College or more 67 - PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q9. More Say Islam Plays a Large Role The view that Islam plays a large role in the political life of has increased from 7% in 00, a year before the uprising against Mubarak, to 66% today. The percentage saying it plays a small role has dropped points since 00, from 8% to %. The percentage who believe that Islam has a great deal of influence and say it is a bad thing has increased from just % in 00 to 0% today. Meanwhile, those who believe the role of Islam is small and this is bad for the country decreased from 7% to %. Younger people are especially likely to believe that a large role for Islam is bad for the country. About a quarter (7%) of 8-9 yearolds say Islam is a considerable influence and that this is bad, compared with just % of those 0 and older. Role of Islam in Politics 7 Large role 8 Small role PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q6. View of Islam s Role Islam plays a large role 00 0 Change and this is % % Good 0 - Bad 0 +9 Neither/Don t know (Vol) 6 + Islam plays a small role and this is Good + Bad 7 - Neither/Don t know (Vol) Percentages based on total sample. PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q6 & Q6 combined. 8

21 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Majority Chooses Saudi Arabia as Model for Religion and Politics When asked whether Saudi Arabia or Turkey serves as the better model for the role of religion in government, a majority (6%) says Saudi Arabia, while 7% choose Turkey and another % volunteer that neither is a model. ians See Saudi Arabia as Better Model Regarding the Role of Religion Opinions on this question are strongly related to general attitudes about the role of religion in politics. Among those who see a positive role for Islam in ian politics, 7% choose Saudi Arabia; among those who see a negative role, just 8% do the same. Turkey 7% Neither (Vol) % Saudi Arabia 6% Despite admiring Saudi Arabia for its emphasis on religion, ians also broadly desire a democracy. Nearly equal percentages of those who choose Turkey (7%) and those who choose Saudi Arabia (67%) say democracy is preferable to any other form of government. PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q97. 9

22 . Views of the United States and Israel Opinions of the U.S. and President Obama continue to be overwhelmingly. U.S. Ratings Consistently Negative Even American financial assistance is viewed negatively: about six-in-ten ians say both Favorable Un U.S. military and economic aid is having a 8 detrimental impact on their country Despite these decidedly negative attitudes, most ians want their country s 60 relationship with the U.S. to stay about as close as it is currently or become even closer. 0 About four-in-ten (8%) would like to see a more distant relationship between the two 7 countries While the conflict over American NGOs democracy-promotion efforts in severely PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q8a. strained bilateral relations with the U.S., few ians believe that Western powers are behind the country s ongoing protests. Poor Ratings for the U.S. and Obama The tremendous political changes that have taken place in since the end of the Mubarak era have not led to a major shift in perceptions of the U.S. Roughly eight-in-ten ians (79%) express attitudes toward the U.S., with just 9% saying. This is essentially unchanged from 0, when 79% were and 0% were. Younger ians Less Positive View of Obama % Confident 0 0 Change Age % % President Obama also receives low marks from most ians. About seven-in-ten (69%) say they do not have confidence in PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q0a. him to do the right thing in world affairs; just 9% have a lot or some confidence in his actions. There has been a steady decrease in confidence in Obama since 009, when ian opinions about the new American leader were nearly split, with % expressing confidence and 7% saying not much or none at all. 0

23 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Views toward President Obama have become considerably more negative over the last year among younger ians. In 0, % of 8-9 year-olds had a lot or some confidence in President Obama. Today, just % say the same. Attitudes toward the U.S. leader have remained constant among other age groups since 0. Negligible Impact of U.S. on Political Situation Most ians (6%) believe the U.S. has had neither a good nor bad influence on the political situation in their country. Roughly one-in-five (%) say the impact is negative, while % believe it is positive. U.S. Influence Irrelevant to Current Political Situation Negative % Despite some claims that American NGO s were trying to stir up discontent, only % of ians say recent protests are due to attempts by Western powers to destabilize the country. Instead, a broad majority (7%) believes they are the result of genuine ian dissatisfaction with the current political situation. DK % Positive % PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q0. Neither (Vol) 6% Little Support for U.S. Aid There is no consensus among ians as to whether American financial assistance to their country is primarily economic or military. A plurality (%) believes the aid is mostly to help develop economically, while % say the aid is mostly military. Nearly three-inten (8%) believe it is divided equally between economic and military assistance, and % offer no opinion. U.S. Aid Seen as Having Negative Impact Mostly Mostly positive negative No impact DK % % % % Economic aid 6 7 Military aid 6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER QEGY & QEGY.

24 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Both types of American aid are viewed negatively by ians. About six-in-ten (6%) say U.S. military aid has a harmful influence on, while just % believe its impact is positive, and % say it has no impact. Similarly, 6% consider U.S. economic aid harmful, while the remainder of the public is split between positive views (%) and the belief that the aid has no impact (7%). Still, Less Than Half Want a More Distant Relationship Despite the broadly negative opinions toward the U.S., less than half of the ian public (8%) wants the relationship between the two nations to be less close. The remainder of the public either wants the relationship to be about as close as it is now (%) or closer (0%). Opinions on this question are very similar to 0, when % of ians said they would like to be less close to the U.S, 0% about as close, and % closer. Relationship With U.S. Should Be About as close % Less close 8% Closer 0% DK 7% PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q0b. Attitudes toward the bilateral relationship are strongly related to views about American aid. Those who believe economic and military aid have a harmful impact on are significantly more likely to say they prefer a more distant relationship. For example, among those who say economic aid has a negative impact, % want a less close relationship with the U.S., compared with 9% of those who think economic assistance is having a positive impact. Over the last year, ians age 0 and older have become less negative about their country s future relationship with the U.S. In 0, % of the older age group wanted a less close relationship, compared with % today. There has been no significant change on this question among ians under 0. Few Older ians Want Less Close Relationship with U.S. % Less close to U.S. 0 0 Change Age % % PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q0b.

25 Pew Research Center s Global Attitudes Project Treaty With Israel Most ians favor overturning the 979 peace treaty in which became the first Arab country to formally recognize Israel. Roughly six-in-ten (6%) want to annul the treaty, up slightly from last year (%). Just under a third (%) want to maintain it. Opposition to the treaty has grown significantly over the last year among young people and the highly educated. Support for annulling the treaty has increased by points among 8-9 year-olds and by 8 points among the college-educated. Israel Peace Treaty % Annul 0 0 Change % % 6 +7 Age Education Primary or less Secondary 6 +8 College PEW RESEARCH CENTER Q7.

26 0 Pew Global Attitudes Survey in Survey Methods The survey in is part of the larger Spring 0 Pew Global Attitudes survey conducted in countries under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Results for the survey in are based on,000 face-to-face interviews conducted March 9 to April 0, 0. The survey is representative of the country s adult population. It uses a multi-stage cluster sample design stratified by governorates proportional to population size and urban/rural population; about % of the population that lives in Frontier governorates is excluded for security reasons. All interviews were conducted in Arabic. The margin of sampling error is ±. percentage points. For the results based on the full sample, one can say with 9% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

27 Pew Global Attitudes Project 0 Spring Survey Topline Results May 8, 0 Release Methodological notes: Survey results are based on a national sample. For further details on sample designs, see Survey Methods section. Due to rounding, percentages may not total %. The topline total columns show %, because they are based on unrounded numbers. Since 007, the Global Attitudes Project has used an automated process to generate toplines. As a result, numbers may differ slightly from those published prior to 007. Trends from in 00 are not shown because those results were based on a lessrepresentative sample of the population. Since 006, the samples have been more representative of the ian population. Not all questions included in the Spring 0 survey are presented in this topline. Omitted questions have either been previously released or will be released in future reports.

28 Q Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in our country today? Satisfied Dissatisfied Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, 00 Spring, 009 Spring, 008 Spring, 007 Spring, Q And now thinking about the future, overall, today are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the country? Optimistic Pessimistic Neither (Volunteered) Spring, 0 Spring, Q8a Please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat or very opinion of: a. The United States Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, 00 Spring, 009 Spring, 008 Spring, 007 Spring, Q In your opinion, now that Hosni Mubarak is not in power, is better off or worse off? Better Worse Both/Neither (Volunteered) Spring, Q Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? good good bad bad Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, 00 Spring, 009 Spring, 008 Spring, Q And over the next months do you expect the economic situation in our country to improve a lot, improve a little, remain the same, worsen a little or worsen a lot? Improve a lot Improve a little Remain the same Worsen a little Worsen a lot Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, 00 Spring, 009 Spring,

29 Q And which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government In some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable For someone like me, it doesn't matter what kind of government we have Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, Q6c As I read a list of groups and organizations, for each, please tell me what kind of influence the group is having on the way things are going in : c. the military good good bad bad Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, Q6d As I read a list of groups and organizations, for each, please tell me what kind of influence the group is having on the way things are going in : d. the media - such as television, radio, newspapers and magazines good good bad bad Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, Q6e As I read a list of groups and organizations, for each, please tell me what kind of influence the group is having on the way things are going in : e. religious leaders good good bad bad Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, Q6f As I read a list of groups and organizations, for each, please tell me what kind of influence the group is having on the way things are going in : f. court system good good bad bad Spring, 0 Spring, Q6h As I read a list of groups and organizations, for each, please tell me what kind of influence the group is having on the way things are going in : h. the Central Security Forces good good bad bad Spring, Q6i As I read a list of groups and organizations, for each, please tell me what kind of influence the group is having on the way things are going in : i. the local police good good bad bad Spring, 0 7 Q6jEGY As I read a list of groups and organizations, for each, please tell me what kind of influence the group is having on the way things are going in : jegy. the People s Assembly good good bad bad Spring,

30 Q9 Which of the following three statements comes closer to your view? Laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran Laws should follow the values and principles of Islam but not strictly follow the teachings of the Quran Laws should not be influenced by the teachings of the Quran Spring, 0 Spring, Q0a For each, tell me how much confidence you have in each leader to do the right thing regarding world affairs a lot of confidence, some confidence, not too much confidence, or no confidence at all: a. U.S. President Barack Obama A lot of confidence Some confidence Not too much confidence No confidence at all Spring, 0 Spring, 0 Spring, 00 Spring, Q7a And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: a. Mohamed Tantawi Spring, 0 Spring, Q7b And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: b. Mohamed ElBaradei Spring, 0 Spring, Q7c And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: c. Amr Moussa Spring, 0 Spring, Q7d And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: d. Ayman Nour Spring, 0 Spring, Q7e And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: e. Hazem Salah Abu Ismail Spring,

31 Q7f And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: f. Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh Spring, Q7g And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: g. Fayza Abul Naga Spring, Q7h And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: h. The Muslim Brotherhood Spring, 0 Spring, Q7i And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: i. The April 6 Movement Spring, 0 Spring, Q7j And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: j. al-nour Party Spring, Q7k And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: k. The ian Bloc Spring, Q7l And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: l. The Freedom and Justice Party Spring, Q7m And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: m. al-wafd Party Spring, Q7n And thinking about some political leaders and organizations in our country, please tell me if you have a very, somewhat, somewhat, or very opinion of: n. al-wasat Party Spring,