THE EFFECT OF ALABAMA S STRICT VOTER IDENTIFICATION LAW ON RACIAL AND ETHNIC MINORITY VOTER TURNOUT

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1 THE EFFECT OF ALABAMA S STRICT VOTER IDENTIFICATION LAW ON RACIAL AND ETHNIC MINORITY VOTER TURNOUT Expert Report Submitted on Behalf of the Plaintiffs in Greater Birmingham Ministries, et al. v. John Merrill Zoltan Hajnal, Ph.D., University of California, San Diego April 12, 2017

2 Table of Contents I. Introduction, Summary, and Qualifications..3 II. Testing for the Racially Disparate Impact of Alabama s Strict Voter ID Law Using Changes in County Level Turnout Before and After the Voter ID Law was Implemented Assessing Racial Change in Turnout in Alabama After Implementation of the State s Strict Voter ID Law Comparing Racial Change in Alabama to Racial Change in Non-Strict ID Southern States Testing for Disparate Impact in Alabama Controlling for Non-Racial Factors Further Robustness Checks and Caveats...32 III. Conclusion Appendix A: Tables from County-Level Analyses Appendix B: Curriculum Vitae 2

3 I. Introduction, Summary, and Qualifications The objective of this research report is to determine whether Alabama s strict voter identification ( ID ) law, Act , has a racially disparate impact on voter turnout. 1 More specifically, the plaintiffs in Greater Birmingham Ministries, et al. v. John Merrill retained me to ascertain whether the implementation of the state s strict voter identification law has had a disproportionately negative impact on the turnout of racial and ethnic minorities in the state. 2 Summary In this report I detail the results of two separate tests of the racial impact of Alabama s strict voter ID law using county-level turnout data. The complete methodology, analyses, and results are detailed throughout this report, but I begin with brief overview of the analysis and main conclusions. First, using turnout data from a select set of majority-minority counties and overwhelmingly white counties, I compare changes in turnout in counties in Alabama before and after the state enacted its strict voter ID law to changes in turnout in racially similar counties in Southern states that did not have a strict voter identification law in place over same time period. The key question in this analysis is not whether minority 1 I define a strict voter identification law as any electoral law that requires voters to present identification before their ballot will be officially counted. Since Act requires that a valid voter ID be presented at the polling place, I code it as a strict voter identification law. The law does offer an alternative having two election officials sign a sworn statement saying that they know the voter but that option is so burdensome and likely to be so rarely available that the Alabama law qualifies as strict. 2 In this report, the category of racial and ethnic minorities includes all persons who did not self-identify as non- Hispanic white on the Census. Specifically, non-hispanic white is all people who checked white to the first race question and who also indicated that they were not of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin to a second question on Hispanic identity. Thus, the category racial and ethnic minority includes all those who indicated that they were of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin to the second question Hispanic identity as well as those who checked African American, any Asian American group, American Indian or Alaska Native, or some other race but did not also check white to the race question. However, in alternate tests, I also focus a more expansive category of African Americans those who check Black alone or in combination on the Census. Throughout the report I use the term minority to refer to racial and ethnic minorities. Throughout the report I also use the term white to refer to non- Hispanic whites. 3

4 turnout declined in Alabama after the state implemented its strict voter ID law, but whether minority turnout declined disproportionately in Alabama compared to other similar states that did not enact a strict voter ID law. For this and subsequent analyses, I begin by comparing changes in turnout between 2012, the presidential election preceding the implementation of Alabama s strict voter ID law, and 2016, the first presidential election following the implementation of the law. Since turnout in presidential election years is driven substantially by the presidential campaign, any differences that emerge between Alabama and other states after the implementation of the state s strict voter ID law are less likely to be driven by local or state elections and candidates and are more likely to be driven by the law itself. As a check to determine whether there is a consistent relationship between implementation of Alabama s strict voter ID law and turnout by race, I also examine turnout changes between 2010, the midterm election immediately preceding the implementation of Alabama s strict voter ID law, and 2014, the first midterm election after implementation. If Alabama s strict voter ID law has had a disparately negative impact on minorities, we should see that minority turnout declines incrementally relative to white turnout after the law is implemented and that that relative decline is more pronounced in Alabama than in similar states that did not enact a strict voter ID law. To gauge changes in minority turnout, I focus on turnout in Alabama s 12 majorityminority counties. To assess differences between minority turnout and white turnout, I compare these 12 majority-minority counties to the 12 least racially diverse (i.e., overwhelmingly white) counties in the state counties where over 85.5 percent of the voting age population is white. I then use the same cut-offs (majority-minority vs. more 4

5 than 85.5% white) for counties in other Southern states to compare changes in turnout inside and outside of Alabama. To begin to determine whether implementation of the law had a disproportionately negative impact on minorities in Alabama, I compare changes in turnout in the 12 majority-minority counties to changes in the 12 least racially diverse counties before and after implementation. This comparison indicates that minority turnout fell significantly more than white voter turnout after the law was implemented. Specifically, between 2012 and 2016, turnout fell 7.4 percentage points in the 12 majority-minority counties in Alabama relative to turnout in the 12 least diverse counties in the state. In other words, after the law was implemented, the racial gap in turnout significantly expanded. To assess whether this relative decline in minority turnout is due to Alabama s strict voter ID requirement and not other factors, I then compare changes in turnout in Alabama to changes in turnout in a select set of counties elsewhere in the South. Specifically, I compare changes in turnout in Alabama to a set of racially similar counties in Southern states that did not apply a strict voter ID requirement over the same time period. 3 Since the partisanship, racial history, demographics, and other features of the white (or minority) population in Alabama are more likely to be similar to those of the white (or minority) population in other Southern states than to those of populations outside of the South, a comparison to Southern states helps control for relevant differences across states 3 All states that do not have a strict voter identification law are coded as non-strict. This includes states that have a non-strict voter identification law - any law that requests but does not require identification in order for a ballot to count and states that have no voter identification law at all. Conversely, all states that have a strict ID law that requires identification to vote regardless of whether the law requires photo ID or some other form of identification are coded as strict ID law states. Coding for all states other than Alabama is from the National Conference of State Legislatures; see 5

6 and thus helps to isolate the effect of Alabama s strict voter ID law. 4 If the relative decline in minority turnout is significantly more pronounced in Alabama than in similar Southern states with no strict voter ID requirement over the same time period, the comparison indicates that the Alabama law is having a racially disparate impact on turnout. That is exactly what I find. o Looking only at majority-minority counties, I find that declines in turnout were significantly more pronounced in majority-minority counties in Alabama than in majority-minority counties in Southern states without a strict ID law. Specifically, between 2012 and 2016, turnout declined 4.1 percentage points more in majority-minority counties in Alabama than in similar counties in Southern non-strict ID states. In sum, minority voter turnout fell more in Alabama than in similar Southern states that did not have a new strict voter ID law. o To determine if Alabama s strict voter ID law had an especially pronounced impact on relative turnout by race, I next compare relative changes in turnout by race in Alabama to relative changes in turnout by race in non-strict Southern states over the same time period. That comparison reveals that between 2012 and 2016, the relative decline in turnout in majority-minority counties compared to counties that are over 85.5 percent white was 3.4 points greater in Alabama than in Southern states that did not have strict ID laws. In other words, the growth in the difference in turnout between majority-minority and overwhelmingly white counties was larger in Alabama than in other states that did not enact a strict ID 4 Valentino, Nicholas A., and David O. Sears Old Times There are Not Forgotten: Race and Partisan Realignment in the Contemporary South. American Journal of Political Science 49:3 (July):

7 law, a pattern indicating that Alabama s strict voter ID law had a racially disparate impact. For a second and independent test, I examine voter turnout data from all counties in the United States. Rather than selecting a sample of racially similar counties and states, I include the complete set of counties nationwide but also incorporate and analyze a range of other factors that could also impact turnout. Specifically, I use regression analysis to determine if from 2012 to 2016 the turnout of minorities relative to whites declined more in Alabama than in the rest of the United States while controlling for other factors that may affect turnout. In this regression analysis, I control for a core set of county-level demographic factors (including education, income, and age) and state-level political factors (including electoral laws and partisan competitiveness) that are recognized to influence turnout. If, all else equal, the turnout of minorities relative to whites declines at a significantly greater rate in Alabama than elsewhere after implementation of the strict voter ID law, this would indicate that the Alabama law had a racially disparate impact on voter turnout. After controlling for this range of demographic and political factors, I find that the turnout of minorities relative to whites declined in a more pronounced way in Alabama than in the rest of the country over the same time period. The analysis estimates that net of all controls, the turnout difference between the most and least diverse counties in Alabama grew by almost five percentage points more than it did in other states over the same time period. Given that the effect of Alabama s strict voter ID law persists even after controlling for partisan competition, electoral laws, and core 7

8 demographics, the regression indicates that the Alabama law differentially and negatively impacted the turnout of minority voters in the state. In sum, I find that Alabama s strict voter identification law has had a differentially negative impact on the turnout of minority voters in Alabama. Qualifications I am currently Professor of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. I am also an affiliated faculty member at the School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS) at UCSD. I completed a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. I received my BSc in Geology and Geophysics and Political Science from Yale University. I am a recognized expert in the field of racial politics and voting rights and have been actively involved in researching, writing, and teaching on voting rights, racial polarization, and minority representation for over two decades. I have published 16 peer-reviewed articles including many that have appeared in the discipline s top journals including the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, and the Journal of Politics. My research has also been presented before the House Judiciary Committee. In addition I have published three award-winning books on related subjects: White Backlash: Immigration, Race, and American Politics (Princeton 2015 Choice Outstanding Academic Title), Why Americans Don t Join the Party: Race, Immigration, and the Failure of Political Parties to Engage the Electorate (Princeton 2011 Winner of the APSA s Best Book on Race/Ethnicity), and America s Uneven Democracy: Race, Turnout, and Representation in City Politics (Cambridge 2010 Winner of APSA s Best Book on Urban Politics). My research has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and a range of other media outlets. I have served as an expert witness working for the Goldwater Institute and the Arizona Secretary of 8

9 State on a case related to minority representation and local election timing, The City of Phoenix and the City of Houston v. The State of Arizona No. 2 CA-CV (July August 2013). My curriculum vitae is included as Appendix B. I am being paid $250 an hour for work on this case. II. Testing for the Racially Disparate Impact of Alabama s Strict Voter ID Law Using Changes in County-Level Turnout Before and After the Voter ID Law was Implemented Given that Alabama s strict voter identification law, Act , requires that a valid photo ID be presented at the polling place and given that racial and ethnic minorities are less likely than whites to have valid photo identification, there is reason to believe that Alabama s strict voter identification law will have a disparate impact on the ability of minorities to vote. The goal of my analysis is to assess whether, in fact, the implementation of Alabama s strict voter identification law, Act , has had a racially disparate impact on turnout. i. Outline of the Methodology and Key Tests The key test in this analysis is not whether overall turnout increased or decreased in Alabama after implementation of the strict voter ID law. Different factors including the level of electoral competition, the candidates on the ballot, and the money being spent to mobilize voters, among others could impact overall turnout in a state. These various factors could lead to higher or lower overall turnout, regardless of whether a strict voter ID law is implemented. 5 Instead, a key test is whether the law adversely impacts the turnout of minorities more than whites. In other words, did minority turnout decline relative to white turnout after the strict voter ID law was passed, and was that relative decline more pronounced in Alabama than it was in 5 For this reason, even if turnout does not decline after a strict voter ID law is implemented, it does not mean that the voter ID law did not have a disproportionately negative impact on the turnout of minorities because it may be the case that minority turnout would have increased by even more if the law had not been in effect. 9

10 other Southern states with no strict voter ID law, taking into account the impact of other factors that affect turnout? To answer these questions, I undertake two main tests. In the first, I compare changes in turnout in Alabama in relatively racially homogenous counties after the state implemented its strict voter ID law with changes in similarly racially homogenous counties in a select set of Southern states that are similar to Alabama in terms of demographics, electoral circumstances, and partisanship but that are different from Alabama in one key respect: they do not have a strict voter ID law in place. After the implementation of Alabama s strict ID law, if the turnout of minorities falls relative to whites at a faster rate in Alabama than in other states that are otherwise similar to Alabama except for their voter identification laws, it is evidence that the Alabama law itself is a driving force behind this difference and thus that the law has a racially disparate impact. In the second test, I compare Alabama to a broader set of states and counties, incorporating all U.S. counties into the analysis. This broader analysis is designed to account for all of the main factors potentially driving turnout so that I can isolate the effect of one factor Alabama s strict voter ID law on the relative participation of minorities and whites. If the implementation of Alabama s strict voter ID law leads to more pronounced declines in minority turnout (relative to whites) in Alabama than in other states after I control for other factors known to affect turnout, then we can again conclude that the strict voter ID law in Alabama has had an adverse effect on minority electoral participation. The core data I use to assess the impact of Alabama s strict voter ID law are official vote counts from the state of Alabama for general elections before and after the law was implemented in Specifically, I obtained the county-level aggregate vote totals for the presidential 10

11 election of 2012, before the law was implemented, and for the presidential election in 2016, after the law came into effect. I focus on presidential elections because research shows that the presidential contest itself is a primary driver of turnout in presidential election years. 6 Because local and state candidates and contests are less likely to be central in those years, and because presidential election dynamics are similar across multiple states, any shifts we see in racial turnout patterns after the implementation of Alabama s strict voter ID law are more likely to be related to the law itself. However, to see if the racial effects of Alabama s strict voter ID law are consistent across different election years and different types of elections, I also assess changes in racial turnout patterns between the midterm contests in 2010 before implementation and the midterm immediately following implementation in There are two reasons to focus on aggregate county turnout rather than on individual-level turnout. The first is that it enables me to assess racial patterns in turnout a critical part of the analysis across all states. Specifically, the county data can be merged with data on the racial and ethnic makeup of each county to obtain an estimate of turnout patterns by race and ethnicity for every state in the nation. That is not possible with all individual-level voter files. The state of Alabama records data on the race of each voter, but most other states including certain Southern states with no strict ID requirement do not. Official individual voter files from states that do not track race fail to inform us about turnout by race and are ineffective tools to assess the impact of strict ID laws on different racial and ethnic groups. 8 A second reason to focus on 6 For state turnout in Presidential election years, see Benny Geys Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate Level Research. Electoral Studies 25: For influences in midterm elections, see: Gilliam, F.D., Influences on voter turnout for US House elections in non-presidential years. Legislative Studies Quarterly 10 (3), Data for the county level vote totals for 2016 come from the Alabama Secretary of State website. The 2014, 2012, and 2010 county level vote total data are from the Congressional Quarterly Voting and Election website. 8 Moreover, Alabama s voter file does not include demographic information such as income or education, making it difficult to control for those factors at the individual level. The same is true for voter files in other states. 11

12 county level turnout figures is that Alabama s individual-level voter file for the 2016 general election is not yet available to the Plaintiffs. The aggregate county vote totals do not report voter turnout by race, but if the analysis focuses on counties that are overwhelmingly white and counties that are majority-minority, we can approximate turnout by race. I merge the county voting data with Census data on the voting age population of each county to generate a turnout rate for each election in each county. All turnout figures below are for turnout of the voting age population ( VAP ). 9 These county level turnout data are then merged with 2010 Census data on the racial and ethnic makeup and other demographic characteristics in each county. 10 In addition, for the second test I incorporate county-level data on demographic characteristics (including median income, educational attainment, female share, and median age) and the share of residents in each county that live in rural versus urban areas. Finally, I incorporate data on a range of control measures related to state-level partisan competition (including federal campaign spending, candidate vote shares by party, shifts in partisan control of the state Senate, House, and Governor s office, and whether or not statewide contests are 9 Focusing on turnout of the voting age population (as opposed to turnout of the voting eligible population or turnout of registered voters) allows for a relatively broad and also a relatively conservative test of strict voter ID laws. The test is broad because it includes all persons who could theoretically engage in voting including those who are eligible to register to vote but not yet registered and who could therefore be deterred from voting by the presence of a strict voter ID law. The test is relatively conservative because it includes many ineligible residents who could not vote whether or not there was a strict voter identification law in place. Including these non-eligible voters in the turnout denominator could, therefore, reduce the estimated impact of a strict voter ID law. Thus, any effect that we see here could actually be more pronounced with an analysis of registered voters. 10 As noted above, the racial and ethnic minority category includes all persons on the Census who did not selfidentify as non-hispanic white. Specifically, non-hispanic white is all people who checked white to the race question and who also indicated that they were not of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin to a question on Hispanic identity. Thus, the category of racial and ethnic minorities includes those who indicated that they were of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin to the question Hispanic identity as well as those who checked African American, any Asian American group, American Indian or Alaska Native, or some other race but did not also check white in response to the race question. In alternate tests, I also focus on the share of African Americans in each county. For these alternate tests, African Americans are defined as anyone who checks off the Black category on the race question in the Census regardless of whether they identify only as Black or in combination with another race. The pattern of results is similar and my conclusion about the impact of strict voter identification laws is the same whether I focus on the share of non-hispanic whites or the share of African Americans in each county. 12

13 being contested) as well as other state electoral laws (such as the registration deadline, early voting, vote-by-mail, and no excuse absentee ballots). 11 ii. The Logic of Voting: How a Strict Voter Identification Law Might Impact Turnout Political scientists generally agree that there is a core logic underlying the decision to vote. In particular, individual citizens are more likely to vote as the costs of voting decline and the benefits of voting increase. 12 On the cost side, anything that makes the process of voting more difficult is likely to depress turnout. Indeed, past research clearly demonstrates that any additional hurdle to voting, however small or large, can have a substantial impact on the likelihood of voting especially among low-propensity voters. 13 This makes it all the more important either to compare Alabama to states that are similar to Alabama demographically and electorally or to incorporate key factors related to costs (state electoral laws, campaign mobilization) and benefits (which offices are at stake, how close the election is likely to be). In the tests below I do both. Given this logic of voting, a strict ID requirement could have a particularly negative impact on racial and ethnic minorities for at least two reasons. First, strict ID laws clearly increase the costs of voting for citizens who do not have valid voter identification, because they must acquire identification in order to vote. Since we know that minorities are less likely than whites to have valid voter ID, we know that minorities have to incur greater costs than whites to participate in 11 Sources for each of these variables are detailed below. 12 For more on the logic of voting see Riker, William, and Peter C. Ordeshook A Theory of the Calculus of Voting. American Political Science Review 62:25-42 and Rosenstone, Steven J., and John Mark Hansen Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company. 13 See for example: Leighley, Jan E., and Jonathan Nagler. Who Votes Now?: Demographics, Issues, Inequality, and Turnout in the United States. Princeton University Press, G. Bingham Powell. American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective APSR 80 (1986): Zoltan Hajnal (2009). America s Uneven Democracy: Race, Turnout, and Representation in City Politics. Cambridge University Press. Steven Rosenstone and Mark. Hansen. Mobilization, Participation, and American Democracy (1993). Ray Wolfinger and Steven Rosenstone. Who Votes? (1980). Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green. The Effects of Canvassing, Direct Mail, and Telephone Contact on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment. APSR 94 (2000):

14 the electoral process when a strict voter ID law is in place. 14 Given the logic of voting, the expectation is that this increased cost will disproportionately impact minorities. There is also a second, more diffuse mechanism through which the implementation of a strict ID law could exacerbate gaps in turnout by race. Debates about voter ID laws often focus on their impact on minority voters. 15 Accordingly, some minority citizens who have proper identification might still feel targeted by these laws and might therefore decide not to participate in elections. 16 In the analysis that follows I do not directly test either of these mechanisms. Instead, I assess the overall racial impact of Alabama s strict voter ID law and in so doing incorporate the effects of both potential mechanisms. 1. Assessing Racial Change in Turnout in Alabama After Implementation of the State s Strict Voter ID Law To begin to determine if Act , Alabama s strict voter ID law, has had a racially disparate impact, I first assess whether the implementation of the law was followed by racially disparate changes in turnout. Specifically, before and after implementation of the law, I compare 14 In this case, Dr. Bernard Siskin has offered an expert report showing a racial disparity in valid voter ID possession rates in Alabama. See Expert Report of Bernard R. Siskin, Ph.D, March 21, On access to valid identification by racial and ethnic group more generally, see: Barreto, Matt, and Gabriel Sanchez Accepted Photo Identification and Different Subgroups in the Electorate Expert Report. Barreto, Matt, Stephen Nuno, and Gabriel Sanchez The disproportionate Impact of Voter ID Requirements on the Electorate: New Evidence from Indiana. PS 42(1): Government Accountability Office Issues Related to State Voter Identification Laws. United States Government Accountability Office. Brennan Center for Justice, Citizens Without Proof: A Survey of Americans Possession of Documentary Proof of Citizenship and Photo Identification (Nov. 2006). S. Shapiro, Development of Birth Registration and Birth Statistics in the United States, 4:1 Populations Studies: A Journal of Demography 86 (1950). 15 Alexander Keyssar Who Gets to Vote? New York Times. Sept 30. Vanessa Williams Clinton Goes on the Attack over voting rights in Alabama. Washington Post. Oct Bill Hobby, et al., The Texas Voter ID Law and the 2014 Election: A Study of Texas s 23rd Congressional District, at 2 (August 2015), pdf (concluding that, for the disproportionately Hispanic non-voters in one Texas congressional district, the most significant impact of the Texas voter photo ID law on voter participation... was to discourage turnout among registered voters who did indeed possess an approved form of photo ID, but through some combination of misunderstanding, doubt or lack of knowledge, believed that they did not possess the necessary photo identification ). 14

15 changes in turnout in majority-minority counties to changes in turnout in counties that are overwhelmingly white. If Alabama s strict voter ID law disproportionately impacts minorities in the state, we should see minority turnout declining relative to white turnout after implementation of the law in My main focus is thus on changes in turnout between the 2012 and 2016 presidential general elections. But as test of the robustness of the findings, I also look at changes across midterm elections before and after implementation. To address turnout by race, I begin by focusing on two relatively racially homogenous sets of counties. First, to assess changes in minority turnout, I focus on the state s 12 majority-minority counties. 17 Across these 12 majority-minority counties, minorities make up on average 69.7 percent of the voting age population. To compare white voter turnout to minority turnout, I also focus on the state s 12 least racially diverse counties. Across these 12 overwhelmingly white counties, the average voting age population is 90.2 percent non-hispanic white. 18 To help ensure that the particular cut-offs I use for distinguishing minority counties from white counties are not driving the results, I also re-run the analysis including all counties in the state and simply compare all counties that are above average in terms of racial diversity with all counties that are below average in terms of racial diversity. 19 Table One assesses racial change in voter turnout between 2012 and 2016 using these two different standards. Looking first at majority-minority counties alone, the table shows that turnout dropped in Alabama s 12 majority-minority counties after the strict voter ID law was implemented. Specifically, turnout of the VAP in those counties dropped by 4.9 percentage 17 Majority-minority counties are defined as counties where less than 50 percent of the voting age population identifies as non-hispanic white. County-level racial demographics are from the 2010 Census. 18 The cut-off for these 12 overwhelmingly white counties is more than 85.5 percent non-hispanic white. 19 The average county in Alabama is 71.3 percent non-hispanic white. 15

16 points from 2012 to If we include all 33 Alabama counties that are above average in terms of racial diversity, turnout still dropped by 3.2 points. Table 1. Turnout Changes in Alabama s Most and Least Diverse Counties Before and After the Strict ID Law is Implemented ( ) Turnout Differential Change Change Majority-Minority vs Overwhelmingly White Counties Majority-minority Counties (Top 12 Most Diverse -4.9% Over 50% Minority) Overwhelmingly White Counties (Top 12 Least 2.5% Diverse Over 85.5% White) Difference -7.4%** More Diverse vs Less Diverse Counties More Diverse Counties (Top Half of All Counties Over 28.7% Minority) (N=33) -3.2% Less Diverse Counties (Bottom Half of All Counties Under 28.7% Minority) (N=34) 1.6% Difference -4.9** ** Indicates difference is significant at the.01 level (99 percent confidence) * Indicates difference is significant at the.05 level (95 percent confidence) Moreover, when I compare changes in minority voter turnout to changes in white voter turnout, I find that minority turnout fell relative to white turnout after the strict voter identification law was implemented. Across the two presidential contests, while turnout in Alabama s majority-minority counties fell, turnout in Alabama s 12 least racially diverse counties actually increased, with a 2.5 percent gain on average. The net effect was that turnout in the 12 most diverse counties in Alabama fell 7.4 percentage points relative to turnout in the 12 least diverse counties. That difference is not only substantively meaningful, it is also statistically significant By statistically significant, I mean that there is almost no chance that the relative decline in majority-minority counties (relative to overwhelmingly white counties) is random. The significance test shows that there is a greater than 99 percent chance that the difference is real. 16

17 It is also worth noting that it does not matter how I single out minority counties from white counties. As Table One shows, if I instead include all counties in the state and simply compare turnout changes in counties that are above average in terms of diversity with counties that are below average, the same pattern exists. Turnout dropped significantly more in racially diverse counties in the state after strict ID was implemented than it did in less racially diverse counties in the state over the same time periods. 21 It is important to note that I find the same pattern of results when I focus on changes in turnout between 2010, the midterm election before the state passed its strict voter ID law, and 2014, the first midterm election after the law was enacted. As Table A1 in Appendix A shows, turnout in racially diverse counties however measured dropped significantly more than turnout in less racially diverse counties after the strict voter ID law was put in place. 22 Specifically, between 2010 and 2014, turnout in the state s 12 majority-minority counties fell 9.1 percent more than it did in the state s 12 least diverse counties. 2. Comparing Change in Turnout by Race in Alabama to Changes in Non-Strict ID Southern States Although the patterns within Alabama are telling, it is possible that the relative decline in minority turnout in the state could be attributed to factors other than Alabama s strict voter ID law. Over the same time period, minority turnout may have been falling in states around the country that did not implement strict voter ID laws. Black turnout, for example, from 2012 to 21 It does not matter how I define diversity. If I instead single out the top 15 most and least diverse counties, I arrive at the same conclusions about the racially disparate impact of Alabama s strict voter identification law. Likewise, separating out counties that were heavily African American and comparing them to counties that had few African Americans does little to change the overall pattern of results. However diversity was measured, turnout fell substantially more in the state s majority-minority counties when strict ID was implemented than it did in the state s less diverse counties. 22 Table A1 in Appendix A also shows that turnout declines in majority-minority counties between 2010 and 2014 were especially dramatic. Between the two midterm contests, turnout in majority-minority counties declined by 15.6 percentage points after the strict voter ID was implemented. 17

18 2016 might have declined across the country after President Barack Obama was no longer on the ballot, and white turnout may have spiked when President Donald Trump was added to the ballot. In that case, the drop in turnout in Alabama might not be due to implementation of the strict voter ID law. If, however, the changes in turnout in Alabama are greater than in other similar states with no strict voter ID requirement, the analysis points to the strict voter ID law as a source of the relative declines in minority turnout in Alabama. To test this possibility, I first compare changes in turnout in racially diverse counties in Alabama to changes in similarly racially diverse in Southern states without a strict ID requirement. 23 Second, I compare change in the relative turnout rates of whites and minorities in Alabama to changes in the relative turnout rates of whites and minorities in non-strict ID states in the South. The comparison to Southern states without strict ID laws is important because it helps to control for a range of factors that make the South different than other regions. 24 Southern states are likely to be more similar to Alabama in terms of partisan balance, racial demographics, racial attitudes, socioeconomic status, and other factors than are other states around the country. 25 If over the same time periods there are more pronounced shifts in racial turnout in Alabama than in 23 Racially diverse counties in Alabama may differ from racially diverse counties in other states. For example, a diverse county in Alabama is likely to be heavily African American, while a diverse county in Texas may be more heavily Hispanic. 24 To define Southern states, I follow Census coding. Using that Census coding to define Southern states and National Conference of State Legislature coding to define non-strict ID states, the Southern states that have did not have a strict voter identification law in place in either 2012 or 2016 are Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and West Virginia. Some observers would define the South in a more restricted manner and in particular might exclude Delaware, Florida, Maryland, and/or West Virginia. Given the debate about which states are truly Southern, I undertook a series of alternate tests which excluded states that are questionably Southern states. It made no difference to the substantive findings. 25 Valentino, Nicholas A., and David O. Sears Old Times There are Not Forgotten: Race and Partisan Realignment in the Contemporary South. American Journal of Political Science 49 (3 (July)): Black, Merle, and Earle Black The Rise of Southern Republicans. New York: Belknap. 18

19 other similar Southern states with no strict ID law, we can be more confident that the Alabama law itself is driving these racially disparate changes. 26 Finally, to help further illustrate the racially disparate nature of the change in Alabama, I compare changes in turnout in Alabama to patterns of change in South Carolina, the state without a strict voter ID requirement that is perhaps the most similar to Alabama in terms of racial demographics, trends in partisan competitiveness, economic standing, and many other factors that may affect racialized patterns in turnout. i. Did Minority Turnout Decline More in Alabama When the State Implemented its Strict Voter ID Law than in Similar Southern States Without a Strict Voter ID Law in Place? Comparing Alabama to similar Southern states that do not have strict voter ID laws in place demonstrates that the declines in turnout in racially diverse counties in Alabama after the implementation of the strict voter ID law are more pronounced than elsewhere. As Table 2 illustrates, from 2012 to 2016 turnout in majority-minority counties fell by 4.1 percentage points more in Alabama than in non-strict Southern states over the same time period. That difference is both substantial and statistically significant. Not only did minority turnout decline in Alabama after the implementation of the state s strict voter ID law, but it clearly declined more than in other similar states that did not enact a strict voter ID law. The fact that turnout in Alabama s majority-minority counties declined in a more pronounced way than in majority-minority counties in Southern states that did not enact strict voter ID laws indicates that Alabama s law had a disproportionately negative impact on minority turnout in the state. 26 For these tests I use the same racial demographic cut-offs in other states as I do in Alabama. 19

20 Table 2. Comparing Turnout Changes in Alabama s Most Racially Diverse Counties to Turnout Changes in Similarly Diverse Counties in the Non-Strict ID Southern States ( ) Turnout Change Difference in Change Majority-Minority Counties Alabama - Majority-minority Counties (N=12) -4.9% Non-Strict Southern States -Majority-minority Counties -0.8% (N=129) Difference: Alabama vs Southern States -4.1** More Diverse Counties Alabama -More Diverse Than Average Counties (Over -3.2% 28.7% Minority) (N=33) Non-Strict Southern States -More Diverse Counties 1.6% (Over 28.7% Minority) (N=393) Difference: Alabama vs Southern States -4.9%** ** Indicates difference is significant at the.01 level (99 percent confidence) * Indicates difference is significant at the.05 level (95 percent confidence) Again, it does not matter whether we single out the most diverse counties or if we instead include the Alabama counties that are above average in terms of racial diversity (i.e., with more than 28.7% minority population). As the second half of Table Two demonstrates, the drop in turnout in Alabama s more diverse counties was 4.9 percentage points greater than in similarly diverse counties in non-strict Southern states. 27 It also does not matter which years I focus on. If I instead focus on changes from 2010 to 2014, between the two midterm elections before and after the implementation of strict voter ID in Alabama, as I do in Table A2 of Appendix A, I still find that minority turnout dropped significantly more in Alabama than in Southern states that did not implement a strict voter identification law between 2010 and The pattern of more pronounced change in Alabama persists if I focus instead on the top 15 most diverse counties in Alabama, or if I instead divide counties based on their African American population share. Regardless of how diversity is measured, the data show that minority turnout declined more in Alabama than in Southern states that did not implement strict voter ID laws. 20

21 Finally, to see if changes in turnout in Alabama differed from even the most similar of states in the South, I compare patterns in Alabama to patterns in South Carolina. South Carolina, in many respects, represents an almost ideal comparison state. South Carolina has almost identical racial demographics to Alabama. 28 Like Alabama, its state level politics are dominated by Republicans, and almost all recent statewide elections in both states have been decided with a margin of over 10 percentage points. Trends in partisan competitiveness in the two states are also strikingly similar. The last time a Democrat held the Governor s Office or a Senate seat in either state was over a decade ago, and recent elections in both states have seen small, but noticeable increases in the Republican share of the statewide Presidential vote. 29 Neither Alabama or South Carolina have early voting, no excuse absentee voting, or same-day registration state electoral laws that might differentially impact turnout by race. Both are obviously also deep South states with broadly similar racial histories, comparably sized rural populations, and slightly below average median per capita GDP. 30 One of the few major differences between the two states is that Alabama implemented a strict voter ID law in 2014, while South Carolina has never implemented a strict voter ID law. 31 Thus, by comparing changes in minority turnout in Alabama after the implementation of the strict voter ID law in that state to changes in minority turnout in South Carolina over the same time period, we get another chance to illustrate the impact of the law in Alabama. 28 In 2013, African Americans represented 27 percent of the population in Alabama and 28 percent of the population in South Carolina. Source: 29 For example, between 2012 and 2016 the Republican margin of victory in the statewide presidential vote grew three points in South Carolina and five points in Alabama (Source: National Election Exit Poll). 30 According to the 2010 Census, Alabama s population was 59% urban while South Carolina s population was 66 urban. Source: Alabama and South Carolina are ranked 26 th and 27 th respectively on per capita GDP (Source: Bureau of Economic Affairs The South Carolina legislature passed a voter photo ID law in 2011 but it was blocked by the Department of Justice before it could be implemented in In 2016, the state had a non-strict, non-photo ID requirement. 21

22 The results of this comparison are telling. Even compared to South Carolina, turnout in Alabama s majority-minority districts fell precipitously after the new law was implemented. While turnout in Alabama s majority-minority counties dropped 4.9 percentage points between 2012 and 2016, turnout in South Carolina s majority-minority counties dropped by only 2.5 percentage points. Statistically speaking, the drop in majority-minority counties in Alabama is significantly greater than the drop in South Carolina. Similarly, the drop in turnout in counties in Alabama with greater than average diversity was significantly greater than the drop in turnout in racially similar counties in South Carolina over the same time period. 32 African American turnout was falling faster in Alabama than in South Carolina, the state that is perhaps the most similar to it. ii. Does Minority Turnout Relative to White Turnout Drop More in Alabama When the State s Strict Voter ID Law is Implemented Than it Does in Other Southern States with No Strict ID Law? The last test showed that when Alabama implemented its strict voter ID law, turnout declined more in diverse counties in Alabama than it did in equally diverse counties in non-strict ID Southern states over the same period. This is strong evidence that the strict voter ID law differentially and negatively impacted minority turnout. Another test is to determine if the relative change in white versus minority turnout was more severe in Alabama than in other states. If minorities were falling further behind whites in Alabama after the state put its strict voter ID law in place than they were in other similar Southern states with no strict ID law in 32 Turnout fell by an average of 3.2 points in counties with above average diversity in Alabama, while turnout fell only 0.9 points in similarly diverse counties in South Carolina. 22

23 place over the same time period, this would confirm that the implementation of the law has had a racially disparate impact in Alabama. 33 This difference-in-difference test demonstrates that the relative drop in turnout in diverse counties in Alabama (relative to less diverse counties) is especially large compared to Southern states with no strict ID requirement. Looking first at the comparison between majority-minority counties and overwhelmingly white counties (over 85.5 percent non-hispanic white), Table 3 shows the relative decline of 7.4 percentage points in majority-minority counties in Alabama (relative to predominantly white counties) was not matched in Southern non-strict ID states over that time period. The net effect was that the relative decline in majority-minority counties was 3.4 percentage points greater in Alabama than it was in Southern non-strict ID states. That relative difference is both meaningful and statistically significant. Table 3. Comparing Relative Turnout Changes in More and Less Diverse Counties in Alabama After Strict Voter ID is Implemented to Relative Changes in Southern Non-Strict ID States ( ) Relative Change in Turnout: Diverse Counties vs Less Diverse Counties Relative Turnout Change Majority-Minority vs Overwhelmingly White Counties Difference in Difference Alabama -7.4% Non-strict Southern States -4.0% Difference Alabama vs South -3.4%** More Diverse vs Less Diverse Counties Alabama -4.9% Non-strict Southern States -2.7% Difference Alabama vs South -2.1%** 33 Southern non-strict ID states are: Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and West Virginia. See supra note 24 for details on coding. 23

24 ** Indicates difference is significant at the.01 level (99 percent confidence) * Indicates difference is significant at the.05 level (95 percent confidence) We find the same significant difference between Alabama and Southern non-strict voter ID states, if we instead focus on counties above and below mean diversity in Alabama and compare them to similarly diverse counties in Southern states that did not enact strict voter ID laws over the same time period. This comparison, presented in the bottom half of Table 3, shows that minority turnout (relative to white turnout) fell significantly more in Alabama than in other similar Southern states after the strict voter ID law was enforced in Alabama. That 2.1 point relative difference is both highly significant and also potentially electorally decisive. Shifting to midterm elections and the years 2010 to 2014, I likewise find that the drop in turnout in majority-minority counties (relative to predominantly white counties) was greater in Alabama than in Southern non-strict voter ID states over the same time period. Specifically, as Table A3 in Appendix A shows, between 2010 and 2014, the relative decline in turnout in majority-minority counties (as compared to predominantly white counties) was a full 7.8 percentage points greater in Alabama than it was in Southern states without strict voter ID laws. Similarly, as the second half of Table A3 illustrates, the relative decline between counties of above average diversity and counties of below average diversity in Alabama was larger (2.7 points) than it was over the same time period in similarly diverse counties in Southern states with no strict voter ID law in force (although this latter difference is not statistically significant). It is worth noting that a similar pattern emerges if I focus on the top 15 most and top 15 least diverse counties in Alabama and compare them to similarly diverse counties in Southern nonstrict ID states. I also obtain roughly the same results if I distinguish between different counties based solely on their African-American population share. In other words, regardless of how I measure diversity, what cut-offs I employ, or what years I look at, minority turnout lagged 24

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