The Keys to the White House: Updated Forecast for 2008

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "The Keys to the White House: Updated Forecast for 2008"

Felix Lucas
6 years ago
Views:

1 The Keys to the White House: Updated Forecast for 2008 Allan J. Lichtman Professor of History American University Washington, DC Abstract The Keys to the White House are a historically-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast well ahead of time the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through The Keys give specificity to the theory that that presidential election results turn primarily on the performance of the party controlling the White House and that politics as usual by the challenging candidate will have no impact on results. The Keys include no polling data and consider a much wider range of performance indicators than economic concerns. Already, the Keys are lining up for 2008, showing how changes in the structure of politics will produce a Democratic victory, in a dramatic reversal from The Keys also point the way to a new kind of presidential politics based on forthright discussions of the issues and ideas that will shape America s future. 1

2 The Winds of Political Change The Keys to the White House are an index forecasting model that has picked the popular vote winner of every American presidential election since In a paper presented at the Annual International Symposium of Forecasters in June 2005, I noted that Already the Keys are lining up for 2008, demonstrating surprisingly bright prospects for Democrats to recapture the White House. That forecast was published in early 2006 (Lichtman, 2006, p. 5) Additional keys have since fallen into place, reinforcing the original forecast. Democrats will recapture the White House in 2008, no matter their choice of a nominee. Only an unprecedented cataclysmic change in American politics during the next year could salvage the hopes of the incumbent Republicans. This early forecast has profound implications for American politics. Not just elections, but election forecasts have consequences for politics. The models that we use to predict and understand presidential elections shape the conduct of campaigns, the relationship between candidates and the American people, and ultimately the policies of government. The Keys Model The Keys to the White House show that a pragmatic American electorate chooses a president according to the performance of the party holding the White House as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term economic boom and bust, foreign policy successes and failures, social unrest, scandal, and policy innovation. I first developed the Keys in 1981, in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a worldrenowned authority in the mathematics of prediction models. Through the application of 2

3 pattern recognition methodology to data for American presidential elections from 1860 to 1980 we uncovered thirteen key indicators and a simple decision rule that accounted retrospectively for the popular vote winners of each of these contests. Prospectively, this system correctly picked the winner of all six presidential elections from 1984 to 2004, often a year or more before the election. (Keilis-Borok & Lichtman 1981, Lichtman, 2005) The Keys give specificity to the performance model of presidential elections through 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor re-election of the incumbent party (see Table 1). When five or fewer of these propositions are false or turned against the party holding the White House, that party wins another term in office. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. Unlike many alternative models, the Keys include no polling data, but are based on the big picture of how well the party in power and the country are faring prior to an upcoming election. In addition, the Keys do not presume that voters are driven by economic concerns alone. Voters are less narrow-minded and more sophisticated than that; they decide presidential elections on a wide-ranging assessment of the performance of incumbent parties, all of which are reflected in one or more Keys. Answers to the questions posed in the Keys require the kinds of judgments that historians typically make about the past. But the judgments are constrained by explicit definitions of each Key. For example, a contested incumbent party nomination is defined as one in which the losing candidates combined secured at least one-third of the delegate votes. Judgments are also constrained by how individual keys have been turned in all 37 previous elections included within the ambit of the system. The threshold standards 3

4 established in previous elections must be applied to future contests. For example, to qualify as charismatic and turn key 12 or 13 the most judgmental of all keys -- an incumbent or challenging-party candidate must measure up to Reagan, Kennedy, and Franklin and Theodore Roosevelt. The system is also extremely robust as the same keys that predicted Abraham Lincoln s defeat of Stephen Douglas in 1860 also predicted George W. Bush s defeat of John Kerry in 2004, despite vast changes in American politics, society, demographic composition, and economic life. Table 2 reports historical results. For additional details see Lichtman 2005, pp and Lichtman, The system is binary, with each key having a value of 0 or 1. Analysis of past election demonstrates that giving the keys fixed or stochastic weights introduces errors in the system, given instabilities from one election to the next. However, Keys do have trigger effects on other Keys. It may seem counterintuitive, for example, that during the Great Depression, the economy counted only for the fall of only two keys against Herbert Hoover s Republicans in However, the economic collapse also triggered the loss of Mandate Key 1, Social Unrest Key 8, and likely Challenger Charisma Key 13, as absent the Depression, Franklin Roosevelt would likely have followed his plan to run for president in 1936, not The Vietnam War in 1968 only directly counted for one discrepant Key against the incumbent Democrats, but also triggered the loss of Mandate Key 1, Party Contest Key 2, Incumbency Key 3, Social Unrest Key 8, and perhaps Third Party Key 4. In an extension of the Keys model, Alfred Cuzan, Professor of Government at the University of West Florida, and J. Scott Armstrong, Professor of Marketing at the 4

5 Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania used regression methods to convert scores on the keys to a numerical prediction of the two party presidential vote. They obtained the following regression results: V = 37.3 * 1.8L where V = the percentage of the two-party split going to the incumbent L = the number of Keys favoring the incumbent This model correctly picked the winner of every election since 1984 and its forecast error of 2.3 percent compared favorably to the best regression-based models, including models that unlike the Keys, incorporate polling data. (Armstrong and Cuzan, 2006, p. 12) Forecasting 2008 The Keys to the White House began lining up against the incumbent party early in the term. The recent course of events has reinforced this negative verdict for Republicans. Currently, only three keys are called in favor of the incumbent Republican Party. Three keys are uncertain and seven are called against the party in power, one more than necessary to predict its defeat (Table 3). The following three keys currently favor the incumbent Republican Party: *The absence of social upheavals comparable to the 1960 s avoids the loss of Social Unrest Key 8. *The lack of a significant scandal that directly implicates the president averts the loss of Scandal Key 9. 5

6 *No prospective Democratic challenger thus far matches the charisma of Franklin D. Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy, keeping the Challenger Charisma/Hero Key 13 in line for the incumbents. The following seven keys currently fall against the incumbent party: *The Democrats won more than enough U. S. House seats in the 2006 midterm elections to topple Mandate Key 1. *The Republicans are battling fiercely in choosing a nominee to replace George W. Bush, turning Contest Key 2 against them. *Bush s inability to run again in 2008 dooms Incumbency Key 3. *With bitter partisan divisions in Congress, Bush has failed to achieve the second-term policy revolution needed to secure Policy Change Key 7. *The War in Iraq is a broadly acknowledged failure and the administration has achieved no offsetting triumph in foreign/military affairs, forfeiting Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 and Foreign/Military Success Key 11. *Of all GOP candidates on the horizon, none appear to be a Theodore Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan, toppling Incumbent Charisma/Hero Key 12. This leaves three keys that are uncertain: *Third Party Key 4 depends on whether New York Mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who recently switched from Republican to Independent, chooses to run an insurgent campaign for president. *Short-Term Economy Key 5 depends on election-year economic trends. 6

7 *Long-Term Economy Key 6 is too close to call, but any diminution of growth over the next year will forfeit the key. The shift in incumbent party prospects between 2004 and 2008 is most clearly illustrated in the first four keys the political keys. In 2004, the incumbent Republicans secured all four of the political keys. For 2008, Republicans lose three of the political keys, with the third party key uncertain. Setbacks in foreign policy account for the shift of another key. Thus, the negative forecast for Republican presidential candidates in 2008 does not depend on the performance of the economy. The incumbent party could still lose the presidency in 2008 even if the nation is faring better economically than in Although keys do not usually change late in a presidential term, shifting verdicts are at least theoretically possible over the course of the next year. The president so ardently pushed for a surge in troops in Iraq, because he believes that a strengthened American presence provides the only hope for changing the fortunes of war and reversing of the negative verdict on the two foreign/military policy keys. Few analysts, however, believe that such a dramatic turnabout in Iraq is likely. It is also possible that one of the many Republican candidates sweeps the primaries next year, salvaging Party Contest 2. However, a changed forecast for 2008 requires two of seven negative keys to turn back in favor of the Republicans. It also requires positive outcomes for the GOP on the three currently uncertain keys and stability on the three currently favorable keys. Barack Obama conceivably could emerge as a charismatic challenging candidate and the Democratic Congress could uncover a scandal to pin on the president, not just subordinates. The Keys firmly predict a Democratic victory in It is most unlikely that the course of events will swing the Keys back in line for the GOP. 7

8 The Armstrong-Cuzan extension also provides for a numerical prediction of the 2008 results. Assuming that the incumbent Republicans retain four to five keys, their percentage of the two-party presidential vote should approximate 46 percent. A more definitive prediction will be possible once the final keys fall into place. Finally, two caveats are in order. The Democrats may well break historical precedent this year and nominate either a woman, Hillary Clinton, or an African- American, Barack Obama. Likewise Michael Bloomberg could run a precedent shattering independent campaign by far outspending the major party candidates. The Keys, however, are a robust system that has endured through vast changes in the electorate, the economy, the society, and the technology of elections. It is unlikely that any of these contingencies will alter the negative verdict on the party in power. Conclusions The verdict of the Keys has profound implications for the politics of In 2004, the Democrats failure to understand that the historical odds favored Republicans, led to crucial strategic errors. First, they chose to play it safe, by nominating an experienced electable candidate who presumably could back into office against a lightly regarded incumbent party candidate with weak approval ratings. Second, they ran a visionless, consultant-driven general election campaign that failed to establish a principled opposition, elevate the level of political debate, and inspire activism at the grass roots. In July 2004 Keilis-Borok and I wrote: Kerry has a choice between following the usual meaningless routine in the hope that setbacks to the administration and the country will elect him in November or take a chance on running a new kind of daring, innovative, and programmatic campaign. With the right choice, Kerry can achieve an historical breakthrough that would establish the basis for a principled choice 8

9 of our national leader and a grassroots mobilization on issues that matter to America's future. (Lichtman & Keilis-Borok, July, 2004) In politics, the only thing worse than losing, is losing irrelevantly. Ironically, the positive verdict for Democrats in 2008, means again that the Democrats should forget about electability and choose the candidate that they believe is most qualified to redirect the course of the country in accord with their values and policies. The nominee should replace the empty, scripted campaign of 2004 with candid and forthright discussions of the issues and ideas that will shape America s future. The Republicans, who now have the historical odds stacked against them should follow the road not taken by the Democrats in 2008: nominate a breakthrough candidate and run a precedent-shattering campaign to avoid losing irrelevantly. The strategy of pretending that George Bush does not exist, which candidates have played out in the pre-primary debates, will not help the ultimate Republican nominee overcome the deficiencies of the president s record. The lesson of the Keys is that you can t run away from the president of your own party. 9

10 Table 1: The 13 Keys To The White House The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 10

11 Table 2: Keys To The White House: Historical Results, YEAR K 1 K 2 K 3 K 4 K 5 K 6 K 7 K 8 K 9 K 10 K 11 K 12 K13 SUM WIN N Y Y Y N* Y N Y* N N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N Y N N Y Y N Y Y* Y An entry of 1 favors the party in power and of 0 favors the challenging party. The sum totals the keys against the party in power. Win indicates the popular vote outcome for the party in power. * The popular vote and the Electoral College vote diverged. 11

12 Table 3: The 13 Keys To The White House: Standings, August 2007 KEY NUMBER DESCRIPTION OUTCOME 2008 KEY 1 PARTY MANDATE FALSE KEY 2 CONTEST FALSE KEY 3 INCUMBENCY FALSE KEY 4 THIRD PARTY UNCERTAIN KEY 5 SHORT-TERM ECONOMY UNCERTAIN KEY 6 LONG-TERM ECONOMY UNCERTAIN KEY 7 POLICY CHANGE FALSE KEY 8 SOCIAL UNREST TRUE KEY 9 SCANDAL TRUE KEY 10 FOREIGN/MILITARY FAILURE FALSE KEY 11 FOREIGN/MILITARY SUCCESS FALSE KEY 12 INCUMBENT CHARISMA FALSE KEY 13 CHALLENGER CHARISMA TRUE TRUE: 3 KEYS FALSE: 7 KEYS UNCERTAIN: 3 KEYS PREDICTION: INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS LOSE 12

13 References Keilis-Borok, V. I. & Lichtman, A. J. (1981). Pattern Recognition Applied to Presidential Elections in the United States, : The Role of Integral Social, Economic, and Political Traits. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 78, Lichtman, A, J. & Keilis-Borok, V. I. (July 2004). What Kerry Must Do to Win (But Probably Won't), Counterpunch.com. Lichtman, A. J. (2005). The Keys to the White House. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books. Lichtman, A. J. (Feb. 2006). The Keys to the White House: Forecast for Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 3, 5-9. Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzan, A. G. (Feb. 2006). Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 3,

FORECASTING THE 2012 ELECTION WITH THE FISCAL MODEL. Alfred G. Cuzán

FORECASTING THE 2012 ELECTION WITH THE FISCAL MODEL Alfred G. Cuzán Prepared for presentation at a Bucharest Dialogue conference on Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective