Elections and referendums

Transcription

1 Caramani (ed.) Comparative Politics Section III: Structures and institutions Chapter 10: Elections and referendums by Michael Gallagher

2 (1/1) Elections and referendums are the two main voting opportunities in modern democracies. Elections are held to fill seats (representatives) in a parliament or some other institutions. are votes on a specific issue to be approved or rejected.

3 (1/10) Elections are held, because not all people can directly participate in the process of decision making. Elections form a link between people and their representatives. Elections shape legitimation by achieving representation and accountability (requirement of re-election).

4 (2/10) Electoral regulations are the rules governing the following dimensions: Extent of franchise: - Only small differences in modern democracies Voluntary or compulsory voting: - Almost universally voluntary (exceptions: Belgium, Australia) Access-requirements to ballots: - More demanding in candidate-oriented systems than in partyoriented systems

5 (3/10) Electoral regulations (continued): Terms: - President: Always a fixed term - Parliaments: Most often not fixed, but constitutionally determined maximum period

6 (4/10) The electoral system is the set of rules governing the conversion of votes into seats. Electoral systems have a huge influence on a country s party-system, government-coalition, representation etc. Electoral systems can be categorized along the magnitude of the constituencies: Single-member constituencies (PR-systems) Multi-member constituencies (Majoritarian- or non PR-systems)

7 (5/10) Three main categories of PR-systems: (1) List systems: The party presents a list of candidates (2) Mixed systems: Some seats are kept back to counter disproportionality. Voter has two votes, one for a candidate and another for the party-list. Compulsory mixed systems: list seats are used to iron-out the disproportionality Parallel mixed systems: list and constituency part are independent (3) Single transferable vote: Application of alternative vote to PR-systems

8 (6/10) Methods to award seats in list PR-systems: Perfect proportionality: (%) of votes = (%) of seats Highest average: Each party s votes are divided by a series of divisors. Seats are allocated to the highest resulting numbers (highest average): - D Hondt: Divisors {1,2,3,4 } favours larger parties - Sainte-Laguë: Divisors {1,3,5,7,9..}

9 (7/10) Methods to award seats in list PR-systems (continued) Largest remainders: Each party s votes is divided by the number of seats. For each full quota the party gets a seat. Remaining seats are allocated to largest remainders: - Hare-/Natural quota: (# Votes) / (# Seats) - Droop-quota: (# Votes) / (# Seats + 1)

10 (8/10) Methods to award seats in majoritarian systems: Single-member plurality (First past the post): The candidate with the most votes is elected. Alternative vote: Rank order of candidates. The lowest placed candidate is eliminated and his votes are redistributed to second preference. The process is repeated until one candidate gets the majority. Two-round systems: If no candidate reaches the majority in the first round, the least successful candidates are eliminated and a second round takes place.

11 (9/10) Electoral systems vary in the following dimensions: (1) District magnitude: From single-member constituencies to whole-country constituencies The bigger the constituency the more proportional (2) Intra-party choice: How much intra-party choice is there among candidates? Single-member constituencies: No choice PR-systems: - Closed lists: Party determines order of candidates - Preferential lists: Voters can express their preference

12 (10/10) Electoral systems vary in the following dimensions (continued) (3) Thresholds: Electoral systems often contain some institutions to prevent very small parties from winning seats: Preventing fragmentation Facilitating stable government Thresholds are normally between 3-5% (Netherlands 0.67%, Russia 7%). Thresholds usually exist at national level, rarely at constituency level.

13 (1/5) are often described as direct democracy. But referendums must not be seen as being opposed to representative democracies, but as an institution within them. Types of referendum: Uleri (1996) introduced a typology of referendums along five dimensions: - Procedural or ad hoc promotion of referendum - Procedural referendum as mandatory or optional - Promoted by voters or some other agent - Decision-promoting (ratification) or decision controlling (veto) - Binding or advisory impact of referendum vote

14 (2/5) The rationale of a referendum: (1) Process-related arguments: increase the legitimation of policies: - Ostrogorski s paradox increase political participation / level of political knowledge

15 (3/5) (2) Outcome-related arguments: work against the interest of those who do not usually vote can result in an infringement of the rights of minorities, but: - Access to referendums is restricted - Veto role of constitutional courts - Qualified majorities (e.g. double majorities) prevent policy innovation Lower quality of decisions ( cognitive incompetence )

16 (4/5) Empirical patterns: Widespread but uneven distribution of referendums. Huge variation in the frequency of referendums. Some empirical evidence of an increasing number of referendums. are often held on sovereignty-related questions such as secession, independence or EU.

17 (5/5) The impact of referendums: People retain veto power and opposition has the opportunity to block government. No empirical evidence that the quality of policy-outcomes is significantly affected by referendums.