KNOW THY DATA AND HOW TO ANALYSE THEM! STATISTICAL AD- VICE AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "KNOW THY DATA AND HOW TO ANALYSE THEM! STATISTICAL AD- VICE AND RECOMMENDATIONS"

Transcription

1 KNOW THY DATA AND HOW TO ANALYSE THEM! STATISTICAL AD- VICE AND RECOMMENDATIONS Ian Budge Essex University March 2013 Introducing the Manifesto Estimates MPDb - the MAPOR database and associated facilities covers both entry storage and distribution: several different kinds of linked datasets and complete text collections as well as numerical summaries of them. The focus here is on the latter the updated Manifesto estimates (earlier versions are found on the CDs provided with Budge et al 2001: Klingemann et al 2006 reproduced in MPDb ). These estimates consist of the percentage distribution of (quasi-) sentences over each of 56 policy categories plus one 1 uncoded category (Table 1) for each document in the collection. TABLE 1: THE FULL SET OF MANIFETO CODING CATEGORIES Code Name Domain 1: External Relations 101 Foreign Special Relationships: Positive 102 Foreign Special Relationships: Negative 103 Anti-Imperialism 104 Military: Positive 105 Military: Negative 106 Peace 107 Internationalism: Positive 108 European Community/Union: Positive 109 Internationalism: Negative 110 European Community/Union: Negative

2 Code Name Domain 2: Freedom and Democracy 201 Freedom and Human Rights 202 Democracy 203 Constitutionalism: Positive 204 Constitutionalism: Negative Domain 3: Political System 301 Federalism 302 Centralization 303 Government and Administrative Efficiency 304 Political Corruption 305 Political Authority Domain 4: Economy 401 Free Market Economy 402 Incentives 403 Market Regulations 404 Economic Planning 405 Corporatism/ Mixed Economy 406 Protectionism: Positive 407 Protectionism: Negative 408 Economic Goals 409 Keynesian Demand Management 410 Economic Growth: Positive 411 Technology and Infrastructure 412 Controlled Economy 413 Nationalisation 414 Economic Orthodoxy 415 Marxist Analysis: Positive 416 Anti-Growth Economy: Positive Domain 5: Welfare and Quality of Life 501 Environmental Protection: Positive 502 Culture: Positive 503 Equality: Positive 504 Welfare State Expansion 505 Welfare State Limitation 506 Education Expansion 507 Education Limitation Domain 6: Fabric of Society 601 National Way of Life: Positive 2

3 Code Name 602 National Way of Life: Negative 603 Traditional Morality: Positive 604 Traditional Morality: Negative 605 Law and Order Positive 606 Civic Mindedness: Positive 607 Multiculturalism: Positive 608 Multiculturalism: Negative Domain 7: Social Groups 701 Labour Groups: Positive 702 Labour Groups: Negative 703 Agriculture and Farmers: Positive 704 Middle Class and Professional Groups: Positive 705 Underprivileged Minority Groups: Positive 706 Non-Economic Demographic Groups: Positive These estimates have been aggregated into a single Right-Le# scale (Table 2), based on all policy categories. TABLE 2: THE MRG-CMP LEFT-RIGHT SCALE Right emphases: sum of %s for Le# Emphases: sum of %s for Military: Positive Freedom and Human Rights Constitutionalism: Positive Political Authority Free Market Economy Economic Incentives Protectionism: Negative Economic Orthodoxy Welfare State Limitation National Way of Life: Positive Traditional Morality: Positive Law and Order Civic Mindedness: Positive Anti-imperialism Military: Negative Peace Internationalism: Positive Democracy Market Regulation Economic Planning Protectionism: Positive Controlled Economy Nationalisation Welfare State Expansion Education Expansion Labour Groups: Positive Several policy sub-scales have been constructed in the same way (Budge et al 2001, Appendix V) covering free market, planned intervention, welfare and international peace. The main characteristics of the policy estimates are: 3

4 1. their extension over 60 years and 54 countries 2. the general statistical description they provide of whole documents, not geared to any particular research objective but aimed at supporting as wide a range of projects and applications as possible 3. their openness and transparency. Estimates and scales all derive from simple counts and arithmetical operations (calculating, then summing and subtracting percentages). No additional assumptions are required for such measures, which have been extensively discussed in Mapping Policy Preferences (2001) and MPPII (2006). 4. their flexibility. Researchers can easily construct their own measures and procedures if they do not want to use the general ones provided. The estimates are organised and presented so as to make it easy to do so. The aggregate measures such as RILE are deliberately general and holistic to provide a good fallback position for researchers who do not want or need to construct their own measure. 5. their quality. Over 1200 specific research applications in a variety of fields have found the original estimates and measures satisfactory. The main lesson from these is that the original estimates function well within standard procedures like regression or dimensional or discriminant analysis, and as series in space or over time. 6. their sensitivity, particularly seen in their ability to catch all relevant variation in policy preferences both over time and cross-national. 7. constant expansion to new elections and countries. The dataset now is not the dataset of last year, nor of next year. New elections and countries are constantly being added, with considerable revision taking place of earlier entries to improve quality. Mindful of this MPDb stores all versions of the dataset which have been requested, keeping them available for confirmatory analyses or checks. The Manifesto estimates thus have characteristics which differentiate them from survey-based indicators or computerised word counts and which have to be kept in mind when analysing them, otherwise wrong conclusions will emerge. Practical recommendations for analysing the data correctly follow. Recommended Analysis Strategies for the Manifesto Estimates General advice must of course be tailored to particular research objectives and users should always feel free to build their own measures and strategies a#er checking that they respect the characteristics of the estimates. However the care we have taken to confront all the problems commonly raised by users and critics of the data set should 4

5 render our counsels relevant to most analyses over a variety of sub-fields. Our general recommendations are: 1. Taken as a whole i.e. as summarized in the right-le# scale or where all 56, or substantial sub-sets, of the policy categories are input together, the data set has high validity and reliability (80-100%). Estimates at this level are best input to statistical routines (e.g. regression or dimensional analyses) as they stand, without distorting adjustments. 2. Sub-scales (Free Market, State Intervention, Welfare, Economy, Peace, European Union), and most of the original policy categories are also best input to statistical routines without prior adjustment. 3. Original unadjusted estimates should also be used in distributional comparisons across time or space (i.e. where time or other series are being compared as a whole). 4. The original right-le# point estimates will not generally give misleading results in comparisons of party or other policy positions over time or space, providing there is reasonable discounting of small differences. 5. A guide to such discounting will soon be provided by the confidence intervals published in MPDb. 6. Similar confidence intervals at general, party and individualised levels will be available from MPDb for sub-scales and original policy categories. 7. The confidence intervals reported there are based on observed stability and patterned change in the Manifesto policy estimates included in the data set (MPDb). This captures all the types of error which affect variation, from document selection, coding, transcription etc, while making minimal assumptions about the way source documents are prepared or selected. 8. Final estimate measures of uncertainty and error should always be used in preference to measures which make stronger assumptions about the nature of the documents or their selection or preparation, since these are o#en wrong and/or lead to paradoxical consequences. In particular the length of a document is no guide to its reliability given a) ambiguity about what length implies in terms of noise ; b) the different types of document used to base estimates on, where the significance of length varies. 9. Final estimate based measures are also the most relevant for researchers, whose main concern is with the party policy profile in each election. Thus it is the reliability and validity of policy indicators as such which is of most interest and this is measured directly through the final-estimate approach. 5

6 10. Note that the reciprocal of the reliability coefficient gives the percentage of variation in point estimates which can be attributed to non-systematic error. This then provides confidence intervals. Confidence intervals are probably most useful in deciding whether a given party policy move between elections is substantively significant or not, which enables us to check predictions about party movement in terms of percentage success for individual cases across time rather than averaged relationships as in regression equations. This facilitates a more powerful predictive test. 11. Confidence intervals can also be derived for Median Voter and Government Policy Intentions. Again these are only relevant for point estimates for these variables, as the original values serve as the best input for multivariate or dimensional analyses or for distributional comparisons. 12. Comparisons across extended stretches of space and time can only be made with invariant indicators which are deductively rather than inductively derived. Changing the right-le# scale or the original coding scheme to fit better for a given time period or country would undermine such extended comparisons. 13. Being derived from the ideological divisions around 1900 which produced the modern party system the standard right-le# scale has a continuing contemporary relevance which is likely to continue into the future. 14. None of these caveats should prevent researchers devising alternatives for their own purposes, as the data are capable of supporting almost any number of combinations and re-combinations adapted to various research uses. Only, they should bear in mind that alternative measures are likely to be limited to particular periods or areas, and so will not serve as replacements for the standard measures. This is particularly true if they are inductively derived from some part of the data. 15. In comparing party positions estimated from the Manifesto data to electoral or other policy positions estimated from mass or expert surveys, analysts should recentre the latter as they miss the cross-national variation which the Manifesto estimates pick up. Without re-centring like is not being compared with like across countries. The Manifesto Estimates Validated, Authoritative and Indispensible A lot of our recommendations rest on the validity of the Manifesto Estimates in a wide variety of areas. Validity is the demonstrated ability of the estimates to measure what 6

7 they are supposed to measure i.e. party policy at a particular point in time. This could be either general policy (best summarised by its Right-Le# position over the whole document) or positions on individual policies (each of the 56 categories, or the subscales formed from them). Operationally, validity is the ability of the policy estimate to meet historical expectations of where a particular party should be at that time point or to give sensible and understandable results when used in research. Establishing the validity of estimates establishes their reliability as well, since measures could hardly be valid if they were unreliable i.e. gave different results when applied repeatedly under the same circumstances. If an estimate gives the same results on say 85% of occasions the 15 per cent where it varies can be used to estimate the amount of variation which is due to error and provide standard errors of measurement (SEMs) aka confident intervals. Since validity entails reliability validity checking forms the most important test we can make of data-quality. The best check on validity is users satisfaction with results from the research applications they make of it, which in turn can be estimated from repeated use. We estimate that there have been almost 1200 specific research citations on Google of the two Mapping Policy Preferences books with the data (Budge et al 2001: Klingemann et al 2006) not counting the five research volumes published by the Manifesto Research Group (Budge, Robertson, Hearl eds 1987/2008: Laver & Budge eds 1992: Klingemann et al 1994: McDonald & Budge 2005: Budge et al 2012). All these books also report their own checks on validity. This all adds up to overwhelming evidence of estimate validity. Very few datasets and certainly no policy series have been the subject of such extensive checks. 7

8 References Budge, Ian/Klingemann, Hans-Dieter/Volkens, Andrea/Bara, Judith/Tanenbaum, Eric (2001, 3rd reprint in 2010): Mapping Policy Preferences. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Budge, Ian/McDonald, Michael D./Pennings, Paul/Keman, Hans (2012 forthcoming): Organizing Democratic Choice: Party Representation Over Time, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Budge, Ian/Robertson, David/Hearl, Derek (1987, reprinted in 2004): Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analyses of Post-War Election Programmes in 19 Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Klingemann, Hans-Dieter/Hofferbert, Richard I./Budge, Ian (1994): Parties, Policies, and Democracy, Boulder: Westview Press. Klingemann, Hans-Dieter/Volkens, Andrea/Bara, Judith/Budge, Ian. (2006, 2nd reprint in 2010): Mapping Policy Preferences II. Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments in Eastern Europa, European Union and OECD, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Laver, Michael J./Budge, Ian (eds.) (1992): Party Policy and Government Coalitions. New York: St. Martin's Press. McDonald, Michael/Budge, Ian (2005): Elections, Parties, Democracy. Conferring the Median Mandate, Oxford: Oxford University Press. 8

THE PARADOX OF THE MANIFESTOS SATISFIED USERS, CRITICAL METHODOLOGISTS

THE PARADOX OF THE MANIFESTOS SATISFIED USERS, CRITICAL METHODOLOGISTS THE PARADOX OF THE MANIFESTOS SATISFIED USERS, CRITICAL METHODOLOGISTS Ian Budge Essex University March 2013 The very extensive use of the Manifesto estimates by users other than the

More information

Mapping Policy Preferences with Uncertainty: Measuring and Correcting Error in Comparative Manifesto Project Estimates *

Mapping Policy Preferences with Uncertainty: Measuring and Correcting Error in Comparative Manifesto Project Estimates * Mapping Policy Preferences with Uncertainty: Measuring and Correcting Error in Comparative Manifesto Project Estimates * Kenneth Benoit Michael Laver Slava Mikhailov Trinity College Dublin New York University

More information

Heather Stoll. July 30, 2014

Heather Stoll. July 30, 2014 Supplemental Materials for Elite Level Conflict Salience and Dimensionality in Western Europe: Concepts and Empirical Findings, West European Politics 33 (3) Heather Stoll July 30, 2014 This paper contains

More information

Benchmarks for text analysis: A response to Budge and Pennings

Benchmarks for text analysis: A response to Budge and Pennings Electoral Studies 26 (2007) 130e135 www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud Benchmarks for text analysis: A response to Budge and Pennings Kenneth Benoit a,, Michael Laver b a Department of Political Science,

More information

Polimetrics. Lecture 2 The Comparative Manifesto Project

Polimetrics. Lecture 2 The Comparative Manifesto Project Polimetrics Lecture 2 The Comparative Manifesto Project From programmes to preferences Why studying texts Analyses of many forms of political competition, from a wide range of theoretical perspectives,

More information

INSTRUCTIONS FOR PARTICIPANTS. Please make sure you have carefully read these instructions before proceeding to code the test document.

INSTRUCTIONS FOR PARTICIPANTS. Please make sure you have carefully read these instructions before proceeding to code the test document. COMPARATIVE MANIFESTO PROJECT RELIABILITY TESTS Slava Mikhaylov and Kenneth Benoit Trinity College, Dublin INSTRUCTIONS FOR PARTICIPANTS Please make sure you have carefully read these instructions before

More information

Do they work? Validating computerised word frequency estimates against policy series

Do they work? Validating computerised word frequency estimates against policy series Electoral Studies 26 (2007) 121e129 www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud Do they work? Validating computerised word frequency estimates against policy series Ian Budge a,1, Paul Pennings b, a University of

More information

1. INTRODUCTION 2 2. SELECTION OF PROGRAMMES 2 3. SELECTION OF PARTIES 3 4. THE CODING PROCEDURE Quantification: The Coding Unit 4

1. INTRODUCTION 2 2. SELECTION OF PROGRAMMES 2 3. SELECTION OF PARTIES 3 4. THE CODING PROCEDURE Quantification: The Coding Unit 4 Andrea Volkens Manifesto Coding lnstructions (1 st edition) 2001 1. INTRODUCTION 2 2. SELECTION OF PROGRAMMES 2 3. SELECTION OF PARTIES 3 4. THE CODING PROCEDURE 3 4.1. Quantification: The Coding Unit

More information

You Get What You Vote For: Electoral Determinants of Economic Freedom. Eric Crampton George Mason University

You Get What You Vote For: Electoral Determinants of Economic Freedom. Eric Crampton George Mason University You Get What You Vote For: Electoral Determinants of Economic Freedom George Mason University First draft: April 2002 This draft: September 2002 Forthcoming, Journal of Private Enterprise Abstract: While

More information

ESTIMATING IRISH PARTY POLICY POSITIONS USING COMPUTER WORDSCORING: THE 2002 ELECTION * A RESEARCH NOTE. Kenneth Benoit Michael Laver

ESTIMATING IRISH PARTY POLICY POSITIONS USING COMPUTER WORDSCORING: THE 2002 ELECTION * A RESEARCH NOTE. Kenneth Benoit Michael Laver ESTIMATING IRISH PARTY POLICY POSITIONS USING COMPUTER WORDSCORING: THE 2002 ELECTION * A RESEARCH NOTE Kenneth Benoit Michael Laver Trinity College Dublin 6 June 2002 INTRODUCTION Developments in the

More information

Handbook for Users and Coders of the

Handbook for Users and Coders of the Handbook for Users and Coders of the Scope, Range, and Extent of Manifesto Project Data Usage (SRE) Dataset Andrea Volkens Cristina Ares Radostina Bratanova Lea Kaftan Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung

More information

Nr. 64, Euromanifesto Coding Instructions. Andreas M. Wüst Andrea Volkens

Nr. 64, Euromanifesto Coding Instructions. Andreas M. Wüst Andrea Volkens Nr. 64, 2003 Euromanifesto Coding Instructions Andreas M. Wüst Andrea Volkens Andreas M. Wüst Andrea Volkens Euromanifesto Coding Instructions Wüst, Andreas M.: Euromanifesto Coding Instructions/ Andreas

More information

Manifesto Research Group Standard Coding Categories Used to Code Party Election Programmes

Manifesto Research Group Standard Coding Categories Used to Code Party Election Programmes Manifesto Research Group Standard Coding Categories Used to Code Party Election Programmes Each sentence is counted into one of the following categories: DOMAIN 1: External Relations 101 Foreign Special

More information

Expert judgements of party policy positions: Uses and limitations in political research

Expert judgements of party policy positions: Uses and limitations in political research European Journal of Political Research 37: 103 113, 2000. 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 103 Research Note Expert judgements of party policy positions: Uses and limitations

More information

Keywords: Voter Policy Emphasis; Electoral Manifesto, Party Position Shift, Comparative Manifesto Project

Keywords: Voter Policy Emphasis; Electoral Manifesto, Party Position Shift, Comparative Manifesto Project Středoevropské politické studie / Central European Political Studies Review www.journals.muni.cz/cepsr Ročník XIX (2017), Číslo 1, s. 25 54 / Volume XIX (2017), Issue 1, pp. 25 54 (c) Mezinárodní politologický

More information

Annika Werner, Onawa Lacewell, Andrea Volkens. Manifesto Coding Instructions (5 th revised edition), February 2015

Annika Werner, Onawa Lacewell, Andrea Volkens. Manifesto Coding Instructions (5 th revised edition), February 2015 Annika Werner, Onawa Lacewell, Andrea Volkens Manifesto Coding Instructions (5 th revised edition), February 2015 INTRODUCTION: CMP AND THE PURPOSE OF THIS HANDBOOK... 2 1. THE MANIFESTOS... 2 1.1 WHICH

More information

From Spatial Distance to Programmatic Overlap: Elaboration and Application of an Improved Party Policy Measure

From Spatial Distance to Programmatic Overlap: Elaboration and Application of an Improved Party Policy Measure From Spatial Distance to Programmatic Overlap: Elaboration and Application of an Improved Party Policy Measure Martin Mölder June 6, 2013 Abstract In contemporary representative democracies the political

More information

Vote Compass Methodology

Vote Compass Methodology Vote Compass Methodology 1 Introduction Vote Compass is a civic engagement application developed by the team of social and data scientists from Vox Pop Labs. Its objective is to promote electoral literacy

More information

EXTRACTING POLICY POSITIONS FROM POLITICAL TEXTS USING WORDS AS DATA * January 21, 2003

EXTRACTING POLICY POSITIONS FROM POLITICAL TEXTS USING WORDS AS DATA * January 21, 2003 EXTRACTING POLICY POSITIONS FROM POLITICAL TEXTS USING WORDS AS DATA * Michael Laver Kenneth Benoit John Garry Trinity College, U. of Dublin Trinity College, U. of Dublin University of Reading January

More information

Manifesto Project Dataset. Codebook

Manifesto Project Dataset. Codebook Manifesto Project Dataset Codebook manifesto-communication@wzb.eu Website: https://manifesto-project.wzb.eu/ from December 12, 2017 1 Introduction & Citation The Manifesto Project Dataset was originally

More information

Ideology, Party Factionalism and Policy Change: An integrated dynamic theory

Ideology, Party Factionalism and Policy Change: An integrated dynamic theory B.J.Pol.S. 40, 781 804 Copyright r Cambridge University Press, 2010 doi:10.1017/s0007123409990184 First published online 29 July 2010 Ideology, Party Factionalism and Policy Change: An integrated dynamic

More information

Political text is a fundamental source of information

Political text is a fundamental source of information Treating Words as Data with Error: Uncertainty in Text Statements of Policy Positions Kenneth Benoit Michael Laver Slava Mikhaylov Trinity College New York University Trinity College Political text offers

More information

JAMES ADAMS AND ZEYNEP SOMER-TOPCU*

JAMES ADAMS AND ZEYNEP SOMER-TOPCU* B.J.Pol.S. 39, 825 846 Copyright r 2009 Cambridge University Press doi:10.1017/s0007123409000635 Printed in the United Kingdom First published online 7 April 2009 Policy Adjustment by Parties in Response

More information

What makes parties adapt to voter preferences? The role of party organisation, goals and ideology

What makes parties adapt to voter preferences? The role of party organisation, goals and ideology Draft Submission to B.J.Pol.S. XX, X XX Cambridge University Press, 2016 doi:doi:10.1017/xxxx What makes parties adapt to voter preferences? The role of party organisation, goals and ideology DANIEL BISCHOF

More information

Left and Right in Comparative Politics

Left and Right in Comparative Politics Left and Right in Comparative Politics Detlef Jahn University of Greifswald Abstract This paper takes advantage of the fact that party manifesto data are freely available. The reliable and transparent

More information

And Yet it Moves: The Effect of Election Platforms on Party. Policy Images

And Yet it Moves: The Effect of Election Platforms on Party. Policy Images And Yet it Moves: The Effect of Election Platforms on Party Policy Images Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez * Supplementary Online Materials [ Forthcoming in Comparative Political Studies ] These supplementary materials

More information

Sciences Po Grenoble working paper n.15

Sciences Po Grenoble working paper n.15 Sciences Po Grenoble working paper n.15 Manifestos and public opinion: a new test of the classic Downsian spatial model Raul Magni Berton, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Sciences Po Grenoble, PACTE Sophie Panel,

More information

Understanding Taiwan Independence and Its Policy Implications

Understanding Taiwan Independence and Its Policy Implications Understanding Taiwan Independence and Its Policy Implications January 30, 2004 Emerson M. S. Niou Department of Political Science Duke University niou@duke.edu 1. Introduction Ever since the establishment

More information

Party Competition and Responsible Party Government

Party Competition and Responsible Party Government Party Competition and Responsible Party Government Party Competition and Responsible Party Government A Theory of Spatial Competition Based upon Insights from Behavioral Voting Research James Adams Ann

More information

EXTRACTING POLICY POSITIONS FROM POLITICAL TEXTS USING WORDS AS DATA. Michael Laver, Kenneth Benoit, and John Garry * Trinity College Dublin

EXTRACTING POLICY POSITIONS FROM POLITICAL TEXTS USING WORDS AS DATA. Michael Laver, Kenneth Benoit, and John Garry * Trinity College Dublin ***CONTAINS AUTHOR CITATIONS*** EXTRACTING POLICY POSITIONS FROM POLITICAL TEXTS USING WORDS AS DATA Michael Laver, Kenneth Benoit, and John Garry * Trinity College Dublin October 9, 2002 Abstract We present

More information

Scaling Policy Preferences from Coded Political Texts

Scaling Policy Preferences from Coded Political Texts WILL LOWE Maastricht University KENNETH BENOIT London School of Economics and Political Science SLAVA MIKHAYLOV University College London MICHAEL LAVER New York University Scaling Policy Preferences from

More information

What to Do (and Not to Do) with the Comparative Manifestos Project Data

What to Do (and Not to Do) with the Comparative Manifestos Project Data bs_bs_banner POLITICAL STUDIES: 2013 VOL 61(S1), 3 23 What to Do (and Not to Do) with the Comparative Manifestos Project Data doi: 10.1111/1467-9248.12015 Kostas Gemenis University of Twente The Comparative

More information

Parties, Programs and Policies: A Comparative and Theoretical Perspective

Parties, Programs and Policies: A Comparative and Theoretical Perspective Parties, Programs and Policies: A Comparative and Theoretical Perspective Ian Budge I. Policy and Ideology as a Unifying Research Perspective The feature of political parties which gives them their central

More information

Social Science Survey Data Sets in the Public Domain: Access, Quality, and Importance. David Howell The Philippines September 2014

Social Science Survey Data Sets in the Public Domain: Access, Quality, and Importance. David Howell The Philippines September 2014 Social Science Survey Data Sets in the Public Domain: Access, Quality, and Importance David Howell dahowell@umich.edu The Philippines September 2014 Presentation Outline Introduction How can we evaluate

More information

corruption since they might reect judicial eciency rather than corruption. Simply put,

corruption since they might reect judicial eciency rather than corruption. Simply put, Appendix Robustness Check As discussed in the paper, many question the reliability of judicial records as a proxy for corruption since they might reect judicial eciency rather than corruption. Simply put,

More information

Estimating the foreign-born population on a current basis. Georges Lemaitre and Cécile Thoreau

Estimating the foreign-born population on a current basis. Georges Lemaitre and Cécile Thoreau Estimating the foreign-born population on a current basis Georges Lemaitre and Cécile Thoreau Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development December 26 1 Introduction For many OECD countries,

More information

Participation in European Parliament elections: A framework for research and policy-making

Participation in European Parliament elections: A framework for research and policy-making FIFTH FRAMEWORK RESEARCH PROGRAMME (1998-2002) Democratic Participation and Political Communication in Systems of Multi-level Governance Participation in European Parliament elections: A framework for

More information

Supranational Agenda Setters in the European Union: Rapporteurs in the European Parliament

Supranational Agenda Setters in the European Union: Rapporteurs in the European Parliament P17 33 Supranational Agenda Setters in the European Union: Rapporteurs in the European Parliament Hae-Won Jun * Abstract This paper aims to examine the influence of agenda setters in the European Parliament

More information

Ideological Evolution of the Federal NDP, as Seen through Its Election Campaign Manifestos

Ideological Evolution of the Federal NDP, as Seen through Its Election Campaign Manifestos 6 Ideological Evolution of the Federal NDP, as Seen through Its Election Campaign Manifestos FRANÇOIS PÉTRY Pundits and researchers have sometimes blamed the NDP s failure to win a plurality of the vote

More information

On the Causes and Consequences of Ballot Order Effects

On the Causes and Consequences of Ballot Order Effects Polit Behav (2013) 35:175 197 DOI 10.1007/s11109-011-9189-2 ORIGINAL PAPER On the Causes and Consequences of Ballot Order Effects Marc Meredith Yuval Salant Published online: 6 January 2012 Ó Springer

More information

Ethnic minority poverty and disadvantage in the UK

Ethnic minority poverty and disadvantage in the UK Ethnic minority poverty and disadvantage in the UK Lucinda Platt Institute for Social & Economic Research University of Essex Institut d Anàlisi Econòmica, CSIC, Barcelona 2 Focus on child poverty Scope

More information

We present a new way of extracting policy positions from political texts that treats texts not

We present a new way of extracting policy positions from political texts that treats texts not American Political Science Review Vol. 97, No. 2 May 2003 Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using Words as Data MICHAEL LAVER and KENNETH BENOIT Trinity College, University of Dublin JOHN

More information

NYU Abu Dhabi Journal of Social Sciences May 2014

NYU Abu Dhabi Journal of Social Sciences May 2014 Programmatic and Voting Cohesion of European Political Groups in the 7 th European Political Parliament Darina Gancheva NYU Abu Dhabi, Class of 2014 darina.gancheva@nyu.edu Abstract This study diagnoses

More information

DU PhD in Home Science

DU PhD in Home Science DU PhD in Home Science Topic:- DU_J18_PHD_HS 1) Electronic journal usually have the following features: i. HTML/ PDF formats ii. Part of bibliographic databases iii. Can be accessed by payment only iv.

More information

Substance vs. Packaging: An Empirical Analysis of Parties Issue Profiles

Substance vs. Packaging: An Empirical Analysis of Parties Issue Profiles Substance vs. Packaging: An Empirical Analysis of Parties Issue Profiles Robert Harmel (Texas A&M), Alexander C. Tan (University of Canterbury), Kenneth Janda (Northwestern University), and Jason Matthew

More information

WHO S AT THE HELM? THE EFFECT OF PARTY ORGANIZATION ON PARTY POSITION CHANGE. Jelle Koedam. Chapel Hill 2015

WHO S AT THE HELM? THE EFFECT OF PARTY ORGANIZATION ON PARTY POSITION CHANGE. Jelle Koedam. Chapel Hill 2015 WHO S AT THE HELM? THE EFFECT OF PARTY ORGANIZATION ON PARTY POSITION CHANGE Jelle Koedam A thesis submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of

More information

Re-Measuring Left-Right: A Better Model for Extracting Left-Right Political Party Policy Preference Scores.

Re-Measuring Left-Right: A Better Model for Extracting Left-Right Political Party Policy Preference Scores. Re-Measuring Left-Right: A Better Model for Extracting Left-Right Political Party Policy Preference Scores. Ryan Bakker A dissertation submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel

More information

Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design.

Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design. Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design Forthcoming, Electoral Studies Web Supplement Jens Hainmueller Holger Lutz Kern September

More information

Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in House Member Offices,

Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in House Member Offices, Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in House Member Offices, 2006-2016 R. Eric Petersen Specialist in American National Government Sarah J. Eckman Analyst in American National Government November 9, 2016

More information

Congressional Gridlock: The Effects of the Master Lever

Congressional Gridlock: The Effects of the Master Lever Congressional Gridlock: The Effects of the Master Lever Olga Gorelkina Max Planck Institute, Bonn Ioanna Grypari Max Planck Institute, Bonn Preliminary & Incomplete February 11, 2015 Abstract This paper

More information

Who Responds? Voters, Parties, and Issue Attention

Who Responds? Voters, Parties, and Issue Attention Who Responds? Voters, Parties, and Issue Attention Heike Klüver 1 University of Bamberg heike.kluever@uni-bamberg.de Jae-Jae Spoon University of North Texas spoon@unt.edu ABSTRACT: Do parties listen to

More information

Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in Senators Offices,

Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in Senators Offices, Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in Senators Offices, 2006-2016 R. Eric Petersen Specialist in American National Government Sarah J. Eckman Analyst in American National Government November 9, 2016 Congressional

More information

Employment Outlook 2017

Employment Outlook 2017 Annexes Chapter 3. How technology and globalisation are transforming the labour market Employment Outlook 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS ANNEX 3.A3 ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE ON POLARISATION BY REGION... 1 ANNEX 3.A4

More information

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants The Ideological and Electoral Determinants of Laws Targeting Undocumented Migrants in the U.S. States Online Appendix In this additional methodological appendix I present some alternative model specifications

More information

Special Report: Predictors of Participation in Honduras

Special Report: Predictors of Participation in Honduras Special Report: Predictors of Participation in Honduras By: Orlando J. Pérez, Ph.D. Central Michigan University This study was done with support from the Program in Democracy and Governance of the United

More information

Content Analysis of Network TV News Coverage

Content Analysis of Network TV News Coverage Supplemental Technical Appendix for Hayes, Danny, and Matt Guardino. 2011. The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion. American Journal of Political Science. Content Analysis of Network TV

More information

Effects of Europe on National Party Issue Profiles: Assessment and Explanation of Convergence within Party Families

Effects of Europe on National Party Issue Profiles: Assessment and Explanation of Convergence within Party Families Effects of Europe on National Party Issue Profiles: Assessment and Explanation of Convergence within Party Families by Robert Harmel, Zeynep Somer, and Jason Smith 1 Department of Political Science, Texas

More information

CALTECH/MIT VOTING TECHNOLOGY PROJECT A

CALTECH/MIT VOTING TECHNOLOGY PROJECT A CALTECH/MIT VOTING TECHNOLOGY PROJECT A multi-disciplinary, collaborative project of the California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 91125 and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge,

More information

The 2017 TRACE Matrix Bribery Risk Matrix

The 2017 TRACE Matrix Bribery Risk Matrix The 2017 TRACE Matrix Bribery Risk Matrix Methodology Report Corruption is notoriously difficult to measure. Even defining it can be a challenge, beyond the standard formula of using public position for

More information

Working Paper no. 8/2001. Multinational Companies, Technology Spillovers and Plant Survival: Evidence for Irish Manufacturing. Holger Görg Eric Strobl

Working Paper no. 8/2001. Multinational Companies, Technology Spillovers and Plant Survival: Evidence for Irish Manufacturing. Holger Görg Eric Strobl Grupo de Economía Europea European Economy Group Working Paper no. 8/2001 Multinational Companies, Technology Spillovers and Plant Survival: Evidence for Irish Manufacturing Holger Görg Eric Strobl The

More information

Response to the Evaluation Panel s Critique of Poverty Mapping

Response to the Evaluation Panel s Critique of Poverty Mapping Response to the Evaluation Panel s Critique of Poverty Mapping Peter Lanjouw and Martin Ravallion 1 World Bank, October 2006 The Evaluation of World Bank Research (hereafter the Report) focuses some of

More information

UNDERSTANDING TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE AND ITS POLICY IMPLICATIONS

UNDERSTANDING TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE AND ITS POLICY IMPLICATIONS UNDERSTANDING TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE AND ITS POLICY IMPLICATIONS Emerson M. S. Niou Abstract Taiwan s democratization has placed Taiwan independence as one of the most important issues for its domestic politics

More information

Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth: The Asian Experience Peter Warr

Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth: The Asian Experience Peter Warr Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth: The Asian Experience Peter Warr Abstract. The Asian experience of poverty reduction has varied widely. Over recent decades the economies of East and Southeast Asia

More information

Polimetrics. Mass & Expert Surveys

Polimetrics. Mass & Expert Surveys Polimetrics Mass & Expert Surveys Three things I know about measurement Everything is measurable* Measuring = making a mistake (* true value is intangible and unknowable) Any measurement is better than

More information

Is policy congruent with public opinion in Australia?: Evidence from the Australian Policy Agendas Project and Roy Morgan

Is policy congruent with public opinion in Australia?: Evidence from the Australian Policy Agendas Project and Roy Morgan Is policy congruent with public opinion in Australia?: Evidence from the Australian Policy Agendas Project and Roy Morgan Aaron Martin (Melbourne), Keith Dowding (ANU), Andrew Hindmoor (Sheffield) and

More information

Party Policy Strategies and Valence Issues: An Empirical Study of Ten Post-Communist European Party Systems

Party Policy Strategies and Valence Issues: An Empirical Study of Ten Post-Communist European Party Systems Party Policy Strategies and Valence Issues: An Empirical Study of Ten Post-Communist European Party Systems Zeynep Somer-Topcu Department of Political Science University of California at Davis Davis, CA

More information

Supporting Information for Signaling and Counter-Signaling in the Judicial Hierarchy: An Empirical Analysis of En Banc Review

Supporting Information for Signaling and Counter-Signaling in the Judicial Hierarchy: An Empirical Analysis of En Banc Review Supporting Information for Signaling and Counter-Signaling in the Judicial Hierarchy: An Empirical Analysis of En Banc Review In this appendix, we: explain our case selection procedures; Deborah Beim Alexander

More information

Unequal Recovery, Labor Market Polarization, Race, and 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Maoyong Fan and Anita Alves Pena 1

Unequal Recovery, Labor Market Polarization, Race, and 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Maoyong Fan and Anita Alves Pena 1 Unequal Recovery, Labor Market Polarization, Race, and 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Maoyong Fan and Anita Alves Pena 1 Abstract: Growing income inequality and labor market polarization and increasing

More information

The Politics of Inequality and Partisan Polarization in OECD Countries. Jonas Pontusson 1 and David Rueda 2

The Politics of Inequality and Partisan Polarization in OECD Countries. Jonas Pontusson 1 and David Rueda 2 The Politics of Inequality and Partisan Polarization in OECD Countries Jonas Pontusson 1 and David Rueda 2 Paper prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.

More information

Which way from left to right? The issue basis of citizens ideological self-placement in Western Europe

Which way from left to right? The issue basis of citizens ideological self-placement in Western Europe Which way from left to right? The issue basis of citizens ideological self-placement in Western Europe Romain Lachat Universitat Pompeu Fabra mail@romain-lachat.ch August 2015 Abstract This paper analyses

More information

British Election Leaflet Project - Data overview

British Election Leaflet Project - Data overview British Election Leaflet Project - Data overview Gathering data on electoral leaflets from a large number of constituencies would be prohibitively difficult at least, without major outside funding without

More information

Analyzing Racial Disparities in Traffic Stops Statistics from the Texas Department of Public Safety

Analyzing Racial Disparities in Traffic Stops Statistics from the Texas Department of Public Safety Analyzing Racial Disparities in Traffic Stops Statistics from the Texas Department of Public Safety Frank R. Baumgartner, Leah Christiani, and Kevin Roach 1 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

More information

Korea s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses

Korea s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses How s Life in Korea? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Korea s average performance across the different well-being dimensions is mixed. Although income and wealth stand below the OECD average,

More information

CONSULTATION STAGE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: REDUCTION IN SENTENCE FOR A GUILTY PLEA

CONSULTATION STAGE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: REDUCTION IN SENTENCE FOR A GUILTY PLEA CONSULTATION STAGE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: REDUCTION IN SENTENCE FOR A GUILTY PLEA 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 This document accompanies the consultation on the draft reduction in sentence for a guilty plea guideline

More information

The National Citizen Survey

The National Citizen Survey CITY OF SARASOTA, FLORIDA 2008 3005 30th Street 777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 500 Boulder, CO 80301 Washington, DC 20002 ww.n-r-c.com 303-444-7863 www.icma.org 202-289-ICMA P U B L I C S A F E T Y

More information

How s Life in Turkey?

How s Life in Turkey? How s Life in Turkey? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Turkey has a mixed performance across the different well-being dimensions. At 51% in 2016, the employment rate in Turkey is the lowest

More information

COMPETENCES FOR DEMOCRATIC CULTURE Living together as equals in culturally diverse democratic societies

COMPETENCES FOR DEMOCRATIC CULTURE Living together as equals in culturally diverse democratic societies COMPETENCES FOR DEMOCRATIC CULTURE Living together as equals in culturally diverse democratic societies COMPETENCES FOR DEMOCRATIC CULTURE Living together as equals in culturally diverse democratic societies

More information

Partisan Sorting and Niche Parties in Europe

Partisan Sorting and Niche Parties in Europe West European Politics, Vol. 35, No. 6, 1272 1294, November 2012 Partisan Sorting and Niche Parties in Europe JAMES ADAMS, LAWRENCE EZROW and DEBRA LEITER Earlier research has concluded that European citizens

More information

Hungary. Basic facts The development of the quality of democracy in Hungary. The overall quality of democracy

Hungary. Basic facts The development of the quality of democracy in Hungary. The overall quality of democracy Hungary Basic facts 2007 Population 10 055 780 GDP p.c. (US$) 13 713 Human development rank 43 Age of democracy in years (Polity) 17 Type of democracy Electoral system Party system Parliamentary Mixed:

More information

Positions and salience in European Union politics: Estimation and validation of a new dataset

Positions and salience in European Union politics: Estimation and validation of a new dataset Article Positions and salience in European Union politics: Estimation and validation of a new dataset European Union Politics 12(2) 267 288! The Author(s) 2011 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalspermissions.nav

More information

Japan s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses

Japan s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses How s Life in Japan? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Japan s average performance across the different well-being dimensions is mixed. At 74%, the employment rate is well above the OECD

More information

Quantitative Analysis of Migration and Development in South Asia

Quantitative Analysis of Migration and Development in South Asia 87 Quantitative Analysis of Migration and Development in South Asia Teppei NAGAI and Sho SAKUMA Tokyo University of Foreign Studies 1. Introduction Asia is a region of high emigrant. In 2010, 5 of the

More information

Call for Papers. Position, Salience and Issue Linkage: Party Strategies in Multinational Democracies

Call for Papers. Position, Salience and Issue Linkage: Party Strategies in Multinational Democracies Call for Papers Workshop and subsequent Special Issue Position, Salience and Issue Linkage: Party Strategies in Multinational Democracies Convenors/editors: Anwen Elias (University of Aberystwyth) Edina

More information

International Cooperation, Parties and. Ideology - Very preliminary and incomplete

International Cooperation, Parties and. Ideology - Very preliminary and incomplete International Cooperation, Parties and Ideology - Very preliminary and incomplete Jan Klingelhöfer RWTH Aachen University February 15, 2015 Abstract I combine a model of international cooperation with

More information

DOL The Labour Market and Settlement Outcomes of Migrant Partners in New Zealand

DOL The Labour Market and Settlement Outcomes of Migrant Partners in New Zealand DOL 12414 The Labour Market and Settlement Outcomes of Migrant Partners in New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Hikina Whakatutuki Lifting to make successful MBIE develops

More information

IMPLICATIONS OF WAGE BARGAINING SYSTEMS ON REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION LUMINITA VOCHITA, GEORGE CIOBANU, ANDREEA CIOBANU

IMPLICATIONS OF WAGE BARGAINING SYSTEMS ON REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION LUMINITA VOCHITA, GEORGE CIOBANU, ANDREEA CIOBANU IMPLICATIONS OF WAGE BARGAINING SYSTEMS ON REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION LUMINITA VOCHITA, GEORGE CIOBANU, ANDREEA CIOBANU Luminita VOCHITA, Lect, Ph.D. University of Craiova George CIOBANU,

More information

Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in Senate Committees,

Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in Senate Committees, Staff Tenure in Selected Positions in Senate Committees, 2006-2016 R. Eric Petersen Specialist in American National Government Sarah J. Eckman Analyst in American National Government November 9, 2016 Congressional

More information

Parties, Voters and the Environment

Parties, Voters and the Environment CANADA-EUROPE TRANSATLANTIC DIALOGUE: SEEKING TRANSNATIONAL SOLUTIONS TO 21ST CENTURY PROBLEMS Introduction canada-europe-dialogue.ca April 2013 Policy Brief Parties, Voters and the Environment Russell

More information

Political Science Series. Exploring the Effects of Party Policy Diffusion on Parties Election Strategies

Political Science Series. Exploring the Effects of Party Policy Diffusion on Parties Election Strategies Political Science Series Working Paper No. 144 Exploring the Effects of Party Policy Diffusion on Parties Election Strategies Ezrow, Lawrence and Böhmelt, Tobias and Lehrer, Roni March 2017 All Working

More information

How s Life in the Czech Republic?

How s Life in the Czech Republic? How s Life in the Czech Republic? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, the Czech Republic has mixed outcomes across the different well-being dimensions. Average earnings are in the bottom tier

More information

FINAL RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: FAILING TO SURRENDER TO BAIL

FINAL RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: FAILING TO SURRENDER TO BAIL FINAL RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: FAILING TO SURRENDER TO BAIL 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 This document fulfils the Council s statutory duty to produce a resource assessment which considers the likely effect of its guidelines

More information

PROJECTION OF NET MIGRATION USING A GRAVITY MODEL 1. Laboratory of Populations 2

PROJECTION OF NET MIGRATION USING A GRAVITY MODEL 1. Laboratory of Populations 2 UN/POP/MIG-10CM/2012/11 3 February 2012 TENTH COORDINATION MEETING ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat New York, 9-10 February

More information

Party Ideology and Policies

Party Ideology and Policies Party Ideology and Policies Matteo Cervellati University of Bologna Giorgio Gulino University of Bergamo March 31, 2017 Paolo Roberti University of Bologna Abstract We plan to study the relationship between

More information

INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL SCIENCE [ITP521S]

INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL SCIENCE [ITP521S] FEEDBACK TUTORIAL LETTER ASSIGNMENT 2 SECOND SEMESTER 2017 [] 1 Course Name: Course Code: Department: Course Duration: Introduction to Political Science Social Sciences One Semester NQF Level and Credit:

More information

A Perpetuating Negative Cycle: The Effects of Economic Inequality on Voter Participation. By Jenine Saleh Advisor: Dr. Rudolph

A Perpetuating Negative Cycle: The Effects of Economic Inequality on Voter Participation. By Jenine Saleh Advisor: Dr. Rudolph A Perpetuating Negative Cycle: The Effects of Economic Inequality on Voter Participation By Jenine Saleh Advisor: Dr. Rudolph Thesis For the Degree of Bachelor of Arts in Liberal Arts and Sciences College

More information

The Influence of Turnout of the Results of the Referendum to Amend the Constitution to include a clause on the Rights of the Unborn

The Influence of Turnout of the Results of the Referendum to Amend the Constitution to include a clause on the Rights of the Unborn The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 15, No. 3, April, 1984, pp. 227-234 The Influence of Turnout of the Results of the Referendum to Amend the Constitution to include a clause on the Rights of the Unborn

More information

Experiments in Election Reform: Voter Perceptions of Campaigns Under Preferential and Plurality Voting

Experiments in Election Reform: Voter Perceptions of Campaigns Under Preferential and Plurality Voting Experiments in Election Reform: Voter Perceptions of Campaigns Under Preferential and Plurality Voting Caroline Tolbert, University of Iowa (caroline-tolbert@uiowa.edu) Collaborators: Todd Donovan, Western

More information

English Deficiency and the Native-Immigrant Wage Gap

English Deficiency and the Native-Immigrant Wage Gap DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 7019 English Deficiency and the Native-Immigrant Wage Gap Alfonso Miranda Yu Zhu November 2012 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of Labor

More information

International Civic and Citizenship Education Study (ICCS) Final Report

International Civic and Citizenship Education Study (ICCS) Final Report International Civic and Citizenship Education Study (ICCS) Final Report John Ainley, Project Coordinator Wolfram Schulz, Research Director ICCS Preparing young people to undertake their roles as citizens

More information

Constitutional Reform in California: The Surprising Divides

Constitutional Reform in California: The Surprising Divides Constitutional Reform in California: The Surprising Divides Mike Binder Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University University of California, San Diego Tammy M. Frisby Hoover Institution

More information