A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election. Mark Kayser and Arndt Leininger. Hertie School of Governance, Berlin.

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election. Mark Kayser and Arndt Leininger. Hertie School of Governance, Berlin."

Transcription

1 A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election Mark Kayser and Arndt Leininger Hertie School of Governance, Berlin 31 July 2013 Election forecasts are too serious a business to be left to pollsters alone. 1 --(Gschwend und Norpoth 2001) With the German federal election roughly two months away, forecasts and prognostications about who will win are attracting considerable attention both with Germany and beyond. Leaving casual punditry aside, the more serious forecasts are nearly uniformly based on opinion polls. While polling certainly improves on the anecdotal stories and opinions of media experts, it also has its own shortcomings. Assembling and properly weighting samples in the age of mobile telephones is a challenge and even when that can be properly done, pollsters still face problems of respondents giving false replies (who admits voting for the NPD?) or most problematically, changing their minds before election day. Polls offer a good snapshot in time but when the election is distant, they predict outcomes less well. We offer an alternative: a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes (Table 1); characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany ( benchmarked growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe, France, the UK and Italy. The ability of polling agencies to forecasts elections that are months or weeks away should not be overstated. Consider the January 2013 state election in Lower Saxony for an illustration of the pitfalls entailed in polling. Vote intention polls before the election underestimated the FDP vote share by a hefty 5 percentage points, roughly half of its 9.9% vote share. For the last three Bundestag elections the Politbarometer projections of the vote share of the parties of the outgoing coalitions provided by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for German public broadcasting station ZDF have been off by an average 4.2 percentage points. Because an empirical model like ours does not rely on opinion polls, it can be estimated well in advance of the election. The largest threat to the accuracy of its estimates is the accuracy of its economic and political predictors. Economic forecasts, however, are fairly accurate and our model only requires a single political variable partisan identification to be predicted. Of course, forecasting models like ours rely on some assumptions too, although, we argue, less heroic ones. First, we assume that no election really is unique and, second, that the importance of different factors affecting vote choice is constant over time. We rely on electoral research to construct our model. 1 Wahlprognosen sind eine zu ernste Sache, als daß man sie den Meinungsforschungsinstituten überlassen könnte. 1

2 Our model Electoral forecasting of the sort presented here, just like polling, was pioneered in the context of US presidential elections. While a small cottage industry has developed a variety of models that perform rather well in the United States (See, for example, the 13 forecasts in October 2012 issue of PS: Political Science and Politics) election forecasting in Germany is still in its infancy. Nevertheless, it is striking that to the best of our knowledge our benchmarking model is only the third model to be proposed for forecasting German federal elections the others being the Chancellor model first proposed by Norpoth and Gschwend (2001) who also provide a prediction for the upcoming election (2013) and Jérôme, Jérôme-Speziari and Lewis-Beck (2013). Most people are interested in forecasts because they want to know who will win the election. However, in a multi-party system like Germany s who will win also depends on the outcome of postelection coalition bargaining. Therefore it makes more sense not to look at winners or losers but to focus on parties vote shares. Specifically we focus on the vote share (to be) obtained by the outgoing governing coalition. The coalition vote share is the percentage of the popular vote received by the parties forming the governing coalition. This is usually the sum of the vote shares of two or more parties only once (in 1961) has Germany seen an outgoing single party government and even then only when one counts the CDU and CSU as one party. We focus on the coalition s vote share, rather than individual parties, because it is of the greatest substantive interest. With this forecast, we are able to predict whether the same government will continue in power. Grand coalitions are the exception here. They are mere coalitions of necessity ( Staatsräson ) when no other options involving a larger and one or more smaller parties seem feasible. Usually neither coalition partner has an interest in continuing the coalition beyond the next election. Furthermore, voters have no credible alternative government in opposition. For these reasons we calculate the vote share of the outgoing grand coalition as the vote share of the larger party in that government. This was the CDU/CSU in both of Germany s grand coalitions in 1969 and Having explained our dependent variable that we intend to predict, we now turn to the explanatory variables in our model. There are four: (1) the vote share received by the current governing parties in the previous election, (2) the proportion of people identifying with one of the governing parties, (3) the difference between Germany s growth rate and the benchmark, i.e., the average of the growth rates in France, the UK and Italy, and (4) the (log of the) number of terms a government has been in power. We include the voter share of the current incumbent parties in the previous election (even if they were not in government then) to form a baseline prediction. Past outcomes are a strong predictor of future outcomes, so controlling for previous vote share effectively focuses the other predictors on changes from the previous vote share. The combined vote share of the parties making up the outgoing government correlates strongly with their results in the previous election (r = 0.88). This is also because many people exhibit strong partisanship leading them to vote for the same party in successive elections. 2

3 Our second variable, party identification, captures the proportion of respondents expressing an attachment with one of the governing parties. Our data come from the Politbarometer 2, we average responses from monthly polling in the 6 months leading up to the election until 2 months before the election for an election in September this would be the months February till July. Party identification does not imply a formal attachment but, rather, simply feeling close to a party. However, as the number of people with a party identification still changes over the medium term, the proportion of people identifying with one of the governing parties correlates significantly with the vote (r = 0.61). In the US setting, partisan identification is often the strongest predictor of vote choice (Campbell et al. 1960). In Europe, it is comparatively weaker but nevertheless a strong predictor (Dalton und Wattenberg 2000; Kayser und Wlezien 2011). More specifically, we take the average partisan identification for the governing parties in the six months before the given election. Since monthly party ID data only began in Germany in 1980 we can only use elections since then in our estimation. The third variable is the most novel and also the namesake of our benchmarking model. We calculate Germany s growth, as benchmarked against the three next most important economies in Europe: the UK, France and Italy. Data are from the World Bank s World Economic Outlook which goes back to 1980 and includes a forecast for Implicitly by using the deviation of German growth rates from the average of British, French and Italian growth, we are presuming that voters judge the state of the economy relative to that of other countries. Evidence of such benchmarking across borders comes from Kayser and Peress (2012) who explain the phenomenon with evidence that the media report more positively on the economy when it is outperforming that of comparison countries. This measure of relative economic performance could be of special importance to the forecast for the 2013 election since German growth is sluggish but looks better when compared to that of other European states suffering from the aftermath of the financial and Euro crises. Lastly, we rely on the empirical regularity that governments, on average, loose support the longer they remain in office (Paldam 1986). The major governing parties (CDU/CSU or SPD) in Germany have on average lost 3.2 percentage points per term. We capture this with the log of the number of terms that a government has been in office. Model estimates Putting all variables in one regression model estimated over the elections we can explain 99% of the variance in the vote share of the outgoing government in the past 9 elections (see Table 2). All coefficients are statistically significant and have the expected sign. Vote share decreases in the number of terms the major governing party has been in power. As expected, it increases in the proportion of people identifying with one of the governing parties and the relative performance of the national economy. The good fit of our model makes us confident that it is able to produce reasonable predictions. However, only once we predict elections outside our sample do we get an idea how good our model really is. The 2013 election will provide an essential test in that regard. But we do not need to wait until September to test our model s ability to make out-of-sample predictions. By omitting one election, re-estimating the model on the remaining elections and calculating a prediction using the 2 We thank the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for providing us with their 2013 aggregate partisan identification data. 3

4 values of the omitted observation we can create synthetic out-of-sample predictions. We do this for all 9 previous elections, we compare our prediction to the actual outcome, square the differences, average them and take the square root to obtain the root mean square error (RMSE). This gives us an estimate of the average error of our model in out-of-sample forecasting. Figure 2 plots the actual vote shares received by the outgoing government against our prediction. The farthest we are off is 1.8 percentage points in 2005; in 1983 we get within 1 tenth of a percentage point of the actual result. The RMSE for our model is 1.4 percentage points which considering that the model only rests on 9 previous elections, compares rather favorably to standard errors of the regression in surveys involving many more observations. Our coefficients remain stable across all out-of-sample estimations showing that our results are not unduly influenced by outliers and that the effects of our explanatory variables are, as we expected, stable over time (Figure 3). Our forecast for 2013 When we regress the vote share of the outgoing government on our four explanatory variables we obtain coefficient estimates that allow us to calculate the 2013 vote share of the outgoing government by using up-to-date values for our explanatory variables. Inputting 2013 values for our explanatory variables into the below equation we obtain a point prediction of 47.05% as the combined vote share of the CDU/CSU and FDP in the 2013 Bundestag election. h = h h h ( ) Using the RMSE calculated from our out-of-sample predictions we can calculate the probability of the coalition obtaining a majority of seats in parliament necessary to continue in office. As this year s change to the electoral system in Germany basically eliminates distortions of the vote-seat relationship arising from so called Überhangmandate we only have to worry about the votes obtained by parties who will not be represented in parliament. Current polling sees the sum of votes going to the Pirates, Alternative für Deutschland and other fringe parties most likely not to surpass the 5%-threshold at 8 (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen , Infratest Dimap ) to 9.5 (Allensbach ) percent. We assume that the FDP and Die Linke will surpass the 5-percent threshold. The latter is consistently well above the 5-percent threshold while the former will surely again profit from lent votes from CDU/CSU-voters which polls have difficulty predicting. Considering the substantial error in poll based projections 2 months ahead of the elections this gives us a range of 6 to 12 percentage points. If the polling for these minor parties is correct, however, about 45.5 percent of the vote should suffice for Mrs. Merkel to continue the coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP. Our point prediction already is above this threshold; taking into account the statistical error inherent in the forecast, there is a 83.18% probability that the current coalition will have a majority in the next parliament. Conclusion Based on an analysis of past election results we have offered a theory- driven empirical model to predict the outcome of the upcoming Bundestag election. Our model draws on previous election outcomes, characteristics of the government and of voters and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany ( benchmarked growth) in comparison to the two other most important economies in Europe, France, the UK and Italy. Our approach differs from simple polling as we rely on data available well in advance of the election. 4

5 We predict that the current coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP will receive a vote share of 47.05% on September 22 nd. Taking into account the stochastic nature of predictions and that the likely vote share needed to obtain a governing majority parliament will be around 45.5% we also calculate the probability for the current coalition to stay in power: percent. Current polls of vote intention place the coalition between 45 (Emnid 28 July 2013) and 46.5 percent (Allensbach ). Our prediction suggests that polling firms can hope to be less far off this time. One other model, provided by Norpoth and Geschwend (2013) predicts a significantly higher vote share of 51.7%. Jérôme, Bruno, Véronique Jérôme-Speziari and Michael S. Lewis-Beck (2013) predict individual party vote shares and a sum of 47 % for the current coalition. In September we will know which prediction was closest to the actual result. But already we know that predicting future election outcomes can and should be about more than just polls or prognostication. Electoral forecasting is promising because it is theory based and aims to capture the fundamentals of voting theory uncovered by electoral research. It promises to be less prone than polls to be disturbed by idiosyncratic events during the election campaign. Political scientists should feel encouraged to engage in forecasting to put their theories to the hardest test possible, predicting future outcomes. Theoretically informed forecasts also provide a baseline (a sort of expected normal vote) against which the actual election can be judged, so even if a forecast is off sometimes it will have explanatory value. Election forecasting as presented here provides an alternative and competition to traditional approaches of punditry and polls. We hope that they will receive even more competition in the future as every new election extends the dataset on which predictions can be based. References Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, und Donald E. Stokes The American Voter: Unabridged Edition. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Dalton, Russell J, und Martin P Wattenberg Parties Without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press. Gschwend, Thomas, und Helmut Norpoth Wenn am nächsten Sonntag... : Ein Prognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen. In Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 1998, herausgegeben von Hans-Dieter Klingemann und Max Kaase, Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag. Jérôme, Bruno, Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, und Michael S. Lewis-Beck A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel? PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (03) (Juni 21): doi: /s Kayser, Mark Andreas, und Christopher Wlezien Performance pressure: Patterns of partisanship and the economic vote. European Journal of Political Research 50 (3) (Mai): doi: /j x. Kayser, Mark Andreas and Michael Peress "Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison." American Political Science Review, 106(03), doi: /s Norpoth, Helmut, und Thomas Gschwend Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election. PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (03) (Juni 21): doi: /s Paldam, Martin The distribution of election results and the two explanations of the cost of ruling. European Journal of Political Economy 2 (1): doi: /s (86)

6 Appendix Table 1: Elections in model Year Outgoing Government Coalition Outgoing government vote share (%) 1980 SPD and FDP CDU/CSU and FDP CDU/CSU and FDP CDU/CSU and FDP CDU/CSU and FDP CDU/CSU and FDP SPD and Greens SPD and Greens CDU/CSU and SPD CDU/CSU and FDP (forecast) Figure 1 : Predictors of the vote 6

7 Table 2: A regression model of past elections to predict future elections Predictors Coefficient (S.E.) Previous Vote Share 1.025*** (0.0544) Party ID 0.276** (0.0563) Benchmarked Growth 0.930* (0.224) Log Terms ** (1.295) Constant * (2.724) Observations 9 R-squared Adj. R² RMSE Durbin-Watson d *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05 calculated from out-of-sample predictions Note: Model estimated on elections Figure 2: Actual and predicted vote share Actual vote share Forecast Predicted vote share Vote share of outgoing governing coalitions and corresponding point predictions from 'out-of-sample' prediction ^ 7

8 Figure 3: Stability of coefficient estimates Prev. Election Vote Share Benchmarked growth Party Identification Coefficient values and 95% confidence intervals obtained in 'out-of-sample' prediction 8

A Benchmarking Forecast and Post-Mortem of the 2013 Bundestag Election

A Benchmarking Forecast and Post-Mortem of the 2013 Bundestag Election A Benchmarking Forecast and Post-Mortem of the 2013 Bundestag Election Mark Kayser, Arndt Leininger June 3, 2014 Prepared for Gemeinsame Tagung der DVPW-Arbeitskreise Politik und Kommunikation und Wahlen

More information

Pre-Election Polling in

Pre-Election Polling in Jochen Groß Pre-Election Polling in Germany 1949-2005 Presentation at Venice International University December, 3 rd, 2007 Content Motivation Research questions State of research Potential factors influencing

More information

Comparative Election Forecasting: Further Insights from Synthetic Models

Comparative Election Forecasting: Further Insights from Synthetic Models Michael S. Lewis-Beck 2015 Ruth Dassonneville Comparative Election Forecasting: Further Insights from Synthetic Models Electoral Studies, accepted Abstract As an enterprise, election forecasting has spread

More information

EU Political Economy Bulletin Issue 17, Winter 2014

EU Political Economy Bulletin Issue 17, Winter 2014 Issue 17 Winter 2014 EU Political Economy Bulletin EU Political Economy Bulletin Issue 17, Winter 2014 A publication of the EUSA EU Political Economy Interest Section http://www.eustudies.org/interest_political_economy.php

More information

Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design.

Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design. Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design Forthcoming, Electoral Studies Web Supplement Jens Hainmueller Holger Lutz Kern September

More information

FORECASTING ELECTIONS WITH HIGH VOLATILITY

FORECASTING ELECTIONS WITH HIGH VOLATILITY Statistica Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol. 25 (2) 165 FORECASTING ELECTIONS WITH HIGH VOLATILITY Antonio F. Alaminos 1, European Observatory of Social Trends, University of Alicante,

More information

Candidate Voting on the Rise? Attitudinal Stability and Change During an Election Campaign

Candidate Voting on the Rise? Attitudinal Stability and Change During an Election Campaign Candidate Voting on the Rise? Attitudinal Stability and Change During an Election Campaign Elena Wiegand and Hans Rattinger, University of Mannheim, Germany Paper presented at the 23rd World Congress of

More information

Germany: Merkel does not stand out but holds

Germany: Merkel does not stand out but holds Germany: Merkel does not stand out but holds Carolina Plescia and David Johann 5 June 2014 Introduction Germany went to the polls on Sunday, May 25 to elect 96 members of the European Parliament, by far

More information

Online supplement to:

Online supplement to: Online supplement to: Mader, Matthias & Schoen, Harald. 217. Ideological voting in context: The case of Germany during the Merkel era. In: Schoen, Harald & Roßteutscher, Sigrid & Schmitt-Beck, Rüdiger

More information

Popular Election. Mobilization and counter-mobilization dynamics in the social milieus during the Bundestag election of 2017

Popular Election. Mobilization and counter-mobilization dynamics in the social milieus during the Bundestag election of 2017 Summary Popular Election Mobilization and counter-mobilization dynamics in the social milieus during the Bundestag election of 2017 Robert Vehrkamp and Klaudia Wegschaider POPULAR ELECTION 2017 BUNDESTAG

More information

Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts?

Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts? 589624RAP0010.1177/2053168015589624Research & PoliticsKayser research-article2015 Article Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts? Research and Politics July-September 2015:

More information

Bulletin of the Institute for Western Affairs

Bulletin of the Institute for Western Affairs ` Bulletin of the Institute for Western Affairs European Parliament elections in Germany. A commentary on election results. No. 165 / 2014 09 06 14 Institute for Western Affairs Poznań Author: Piotr Kubiak

More information

24 September 2017 Federal Election in Germany Facts and Figures. The Bundestag [ ] is the cornerstone of the German system of government.

24 September 2017 Federal Election in Germany Facts and Figures. The Bundestag [ ] is the cornerstone of the German system of government. 24 September 2017 Federal Election in Germany Facts and Figures The Bundestag [ ] is the cornerstone of the German system of government. Encyclopædia Britannica Most important candidates, their parties

More information

United States House Elections Post-Citizens United: The Influence of Unbridled Spending

United States House Elections Post-Citizens United: The Influence of Unbridled Spending Illinois Wesleyan University Digital Commons @ IWU Honors Projects Political Science Department 2012 United States House Elections Post-Citizens United: The Influence of Unbridled Spending Laura L. Gaffey

More information

Citation for the original published paper (version of record):

Citation for the original published paper (version of record): http://www.diva-portal.org This is the published version of a paper published in Electoral Studies. Citation for the original published paper (version of record): Walther, D. (2015) Picking the winner(s):

More information

THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN GERMANY BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTION ON 22 SEPTEMBER 2002

THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN GERMANY BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTION ON 22 SEPTEMBER 2002 WORKING PAPERS 6/2002 LONDON OFFICE THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN GERMANY BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTION ON 22 SEPTEMBER 2002 Richard Hilmer, Infratest dimap July 2002 THE LATEST POLLS (1-3 July 2002) The general

More information

Supplementary/Online Appendix for:

Supplementary/Online Appendix for: Supplementary/Online Appendix for: Relative Policy Support and Coincidental Representation Perspectives on Politics Peter K. Enns peterenns@cornell.edu Contents Appendix 1 Correlated Measurement Error

More information

Supplementary Materials for Strategic Abstention in Proportional Representation Systems (Evidence from Multiple Countries)

Supplementary Materials for Strategic Abstention in Proportional Representation Systems (Evidence from Multiple Countries) Supplementary Materials for Strategic Abstention in Proportional Representation Systems (Evidence from Multiple Countries) Guillem Riambau July 15, 2018 1 1 Construction of variables and descriptive statistics.

More information

Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information

Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information Joseph Bafumi, Dartmouth College Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin

More information

ISERP Working Paper 06-10

ISERP Working Paper 06-10 ISERP Working Paper 06-10 Forecasting House Seats from General Congressional Polls JOSEPH BAFUMI DARTMOUTH COLLEGE ROBERT S. ERIKSON DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY CHRISTOPHER WLEZIEN

More information

Ohio State University

Ohio State University Fake News Did Have a Significant Impact on the Vote in the 2016 Election: Original Full-Length Version with Methodological Appendix By Richard Gunther, Paul A. Beck, and Erik C. Nisbet Ohio State University

More information

Forecasting the Outcome of a National Election: The Influence of Expertise, Information, and Political Preferences

Forecasting the Outcome of a National Election: The Influence of Expertise, Information, and Political Preferences Forecasting 1 Forecasting the Outcome of a National Election: The Influence of Expertise, Information, and Political Preferences Patric Andersson Center for Economic Psychology Stockholm School of Economics

More information

Coalition governments and party competition: Political communication strategies of coalition parties

Coalition governments and party competition: Political communication strategies of coalition parties Coalition governments and party competition: Political communication strategies of coalition parties Iñaki Sagarzazu University of Glasgow Heike Klüver University of Hamburg Abstract Coalition parties

More information

Interpreting Partisan Dealignment in Germany

Interpreting Partisan Dealignment in Germany Interpreting Partisan Dealignment in Germany RUSSELL J. DALTON Partisan ties in Germany have been weakening over the past three decades, which is changing the landscape of electoral politics. In contrast

More information

Comparing Foreign Political Systems Focus Questions for Unit 1

Comparing Foreign Political Systems Focus Questions for Unit 1 Comparing Foreign Political Systems Focus Questions for Unit 1 Any additions or revision to the draft version of the study guide posted earlier in the term are noted in bold. Why should we bother comparing

More information

Amy Tenhouse. Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents

Amy Tenhouse. Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents Amy Tenhouse Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents In 1996, the American public reelected 357 members to the United States House of Representatives; of those

More information

The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Value Considerations in an Open-Seat Election

The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Value Considerations in an Open-Seat Election The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Value Considerations in an Open-Seat Election by James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY he trial-heat forecasting equation

More information

Patterns of Poll Movement *

Patterns of Poll Movement * Patterns of Poll Movement * Public Perspective, forthcoming Christopher Wlezien is Reader in Comparative Government and Fellow of Nuffield College, University of Oxford Robert S. Erikson is a Professor

More information

2005 elections: No media conspiracy

2005 elections: No media conspiracy elections: No media conspiracy A comprehensive analysis of the media influence on the German election results Had the German parliamentary elections been held on the th instead of the th September, the

More information

Political Trust, Democratic Institutions, and Vote Intentions: A Cross-National Analysis of European Democracies

Political Trust, Democratic Institutions, and Vote Intentions: A Cross-National Analysis of European Democracies Political Trust, Democratic Institutions, and Vote Intentions: A Cross-National Analysis of European Democracies Pedro J. Camões* University of Minho, Portugal (pedroc@eeg.uminho.pt) Second Draft - June

More information

An analysis of voting behaviour in the 2013 German federal election

An analysis of voting behaviour in the 2013 German federal election Manuskript! Bitte zitieren Sie nur nach der veröffentlichten Fassung. veröffentlicht in: Schoen, Harald, and Robert Greszki, 2014: A Third Term for a Popular Chancellor: An Analysis of Voting Behaviour

More information

Lab 3: Logistic regression models

Lab 3: Logistic regression models Lab 3: Logistic regression models In this lab, we will apply logistic regression models to United States (US) presidential election data sets. The main purpose is to predict the outcomes of presidential

More information

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Christopher N. Lawrence Department of Political Science Duke University April 3, 2006 Overview During the 1990s, minor-party

More information

The AfD succeeded in the German election by mobilising non-voters on the right

The AfD succeeded in the German election by mobilising non-voters on the right LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: The AfD succeeded in the German election by mobilising non-voters on the right Page 1 of 5 The AfD succeeded in the German election by mobilising non-voters

More information

Predicting Presidential Elections: An Evaluation of Forecasting

Predicting Presidential Elections: An Evaluation of Forecasting Predicting Presidential Elections: An Evaluation of Forecasting Megan Page Pratt Thesis submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the

More information

Deliberative qualities of generic news frames: Assessing the democratic value of strategic game and contestation framing in election

Deliberative qualities of generic news frames: Assessing the democratic value of strategic game and contestation framing in election Deliberative qualities of generic news frames: Assessing the democratic value of strategic game and contestation framing in election campaign coverage - ONLINE APPENDIX: CODING PROTOCOL - Eike Mark Rinke

More information

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Christopher N. Lawrence Department of Political Science Duke University April 3, 2006 Overview During the 1990s, minor-party

More information

Forecasting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: Should we Have Known Obama Would Win All Along?

Forecasting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: Should we Have Known Obama Would Win All Along? Forecasting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: Should we Have Known Obama Would Win All Along? Robert S. Erikson Columbia University Keynote Address IDC Conference on The Presidential Election of 2012:

More information

State Polls and National Forces: Forecasting Gubernatorial Election Outcomes

State Polls and National Forces: Forecasting Gubernatorial Election Outcomes State Polls and National Forces: Forecasting Gubernatorial Election Outcomes Jay A. DeSart Utah Valley State Abstract This paper is a replication and extension of the DeSart and Holbrook presidential election

More information

This journal is published by the American Political Science Association. All rights reserved.

This journal is published by the American Political Science Association. All rights reserved. Article: National Conditions, Strategic Politicians, and U.S. Congressional Elections: Using the Generic Vote to Forecast the 2006 House and Senate Elections Author: Alan I. Abramowitz Issue: October 2006

More information

Introduction. Midterm elections are elections in which the American electorate votes for all seats of the

Introduction. Midterm elections are elections in which the American electorate votes for all seats of the Wallace 1 Wallace 2 Introduction Midterm elections are elections in which the American electorate votes for all seats of the United States House of Representatives, approximately one-third of the seats

More information

The Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate

The Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate The Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate Nicholas Goedert Lafayette College goedertn@lafayette.edu May, 2015 ABSTRACT: This note observes that the pro-republican

More information

Appendix for: The Electoral Implications. of Coalition Policy-Making

Appendix for: The Electoral Implications. of Coalition Policy-Making Appendix for: The Electoral Implications of Coalition Policy-Making David Fortunato Texas A&M University fortunato@tamu.edu 1 A1: Cabinets evaluated by respondents in sample surveys Table 1: Cabinets included

More information

The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for '08?

The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for '08? Department of Political Science Publications 10-1-2008 The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for '08? Michael S. Lewis-Beck University of Iowa Charles Tien Copyright 2008 American Political

More information

Mapping Policy Preferences with Uncertainty: Measuring and Correcting Error in Comparative Manifesto Project Estimates *

Mapping Policy Preferences with Uncertainty: Measuring and Correcting Error in Comparative Manifesto Project Estimates * Mapping Policy Preferences with Uncertainty: Measuring and Correcting Error in Comparative Manifesto Project Estimates * Kenneth Benoit Michael Laver Slava Mikhailov Trinity College Dublin New York University

More information

This article presents forecasts of the 2012 presidential

This article presents forecasts of the 2012 presidential SYMPOSIUM Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012: The Trial-Heat and the Seats-in-Trouble Models James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York This

More information

Democratic theorists often turn to theories of

Democratic theorists often turn to theories of The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open-Seat Elections? James E. Campbell Bryan J. Dettrey Hongxing Yin University at Buffalo, SUNY University at

More information

Modeling Political Information Transmission as a Game of Telephone

Modeling Political Information Transmission as a Game of Telephone Modeling Political Information Transmission as a Game of Telephone Taylor N. Carlson tncarlson@ucsd.edu Department of Political Science University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA

More information

Midterm Elections Used to Gauge President s Reelection Chances

Midterm Elections Used to Gauge President s Reelection Chances 90 Midterm Elections Used to Gauge President s Reelection Chances --Desmond Wallace-- Desmond Wallace is currently studying at Coastal Carolina University for a Bachelor s degree in both political science

More information

Chapter 6 Online Appendix. general these issues do not cause significant problems for our analysis in this chapter. One

Chapter 6 Online Appendix. general these issues do not cause significant problems for our analysis in this chapter. One Chapter 6 Online Appendix Potential shortcomings of SF-ratio analysis Using SF-ratios to understand strategic behavior is not without potential problems, but in general these issues do not cause significant

More information

Revisiting Egotropic Voting: Evidence from Latin America & Africa. By: Rafael Oganesyan

Revisiting Egotropic Voting: Evidence from Latin America & Africa. By: Rafael Oganesyan Revisiting Egotropic Voting: Evidence from Latin America & Africa By: Rafael Oganesyan Prepared for Submission towards the 2015 Western Political Science Association Las Vegas, Nevada March 1, 2015 1 Abstract

More information

A Vote Equation and the 2004 Election

A Vote Equation and the 2004 Election A Vote Equation and the 2004 Election Ray C. Fair November 22, 2004 1 Introduction My presidential vote equation is a great teaching example for introductory econometrics. 1 The theory is straightforward,

More information

The Financial Crises of the 21st Century

The Financial Crises of the 21st Century The Financial Crises of the 21st Century Workshop of the Austrian Research Association (Österreichische Forschungsgemeinschaft) 18. - 19. 10. 2012 Economic Attitudes in Financial Crises: The Democratic

More information

Proposal for the 2016 ANES Time Series. Quantitative Predictions of State and National Election Outcomes

Proposal for the 2016 ANES Time Series. Quantitative Predictions of State and National Election Outcomes Proposal for the 2016 ANES Time Series Quantitative Predictions of State and National Election Outcomes Keywords: Election predictions, motivated reasoning, natural experiments, citizen competence, measurement

More information

Why 100% of the Polls Were Wrong

Why 100% of the Polls Were Wrong THE 2015 UK ELECTIONS: Why 100% of the Polls Were Wrong Dan Healy Managing Director Strategy Consulting & Research FTI Consulting The general election of 2015 in the United Kingdom was held on May 7 to

More information

Approval Voting in Germany: Description of a Field Experiment

Approval Voting in Germany: Description of a Field Experiment Approval Voting in Germany: Description of a Field Experiment Carlos Alós Ferrer and Ðura-Georg Granić This version: January 2009 Abstract We report on a field experiment on approval voting conducted during

More information

OCTOBER 2018 TALKING POLITICS HOW AMERICANS AND GERMANS COMMUNICATE IN AN INCREASINGLY POLARIZED WORLD

OCTOBER 2018 TALKING POLITICS HOW AMERICANS AND GERMANS COMMUNICATE IN AN INCREASINGLY POLARIZED WORLD OCTOBER 2018 TALKING POLITICS HOW AMERICANS AND GERMANS COMMUNICATE IN AN INCREASINGLY POLARIZED WORLD OCTOBER 2018 TALKING POLITICS HOW AMERICANS AND GERMANS COMMUNICATE IN AN INCREASINGLY POLARIZED WORLD

More information

Congruence in Political Parties

Congruence in Political Parties Descriptive Representation of Women and Ideological Congruence in Political Parties Georgia Kernell Northwestern University gkernell@northwestern.edu June 15, 2011 Abstract This paper examines the relationship

More information

Political Economics II Spring Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency. Torsten Persson, IIES

Political Economics II Spring Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency. Torsten Persson, IIES Lectures 4-5_190213.pdf Political Economics II Spring 2019 Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency Torsten Persson, IIES 1 Introduction: Partisan Politics Aims continue exploring policy

More information

Comparative Study of Electoral Systems Module 4: Macro Report August 12, 2014

Comparative Study of Electoral Systems Module 4: Macro Report August 12, 2014 1 Comparative Study of Electoral Systems August 12, 2014 Country: Germany Date of Election: September 22nd, 2013 Prepared by: GLES project team (WZB) Date of Preparation: August 12, 2014 NOTES TO COLLABORATORS:

More information

LABOUR-MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN OECD-COUNTRIES: WHAT EXPLANATIONS FIT THE DATA?

LABOUR-MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN OECD-COUNTRIES: WHAT EXPLANATIONS FIT THE DATA? LABOUR-MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN OECD-COUNTRIES: WHAT EXPLANATIONS FIT THE DATA? By Andreas Bergh (PhD) Associate Professor in Economics at Lund University and the Research Institute of Industrial

More information

REPORT AN EXAMINATION OF BALLOT REJECTION IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION OF DR CHRISTOPHER CARMAN

REPORT AN EXAMINATION OF BALLOT REJECTION IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION OF DR CHRISTOPHER CARMAN REPORT AN EXAMINATION OF BALLOT REJECTION IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION OF 2007 DR CHRISTOPHER CARMAN christopher.carman@strath.ac.uk PROFESSOR JAMES MITCHELL j.mitchell@strath.ac.uk DEPARTMENT

More information

International Summer Program

International Summer Program University of Ulm International Summer Program European Integration Germany An Introduction Kai Kohler, Monday, June 27, 2005 University of Ulm, International Summer Program 2005, June 1 - July 29, 2005

More information

Weekly Report. The Party Identification of Germany s Immigrant Population: Parties Should Not Fear Eased Naturalization Requirements

Weekly Report. The Party Identification of Germany s Immigrant Population: Parties Should Not Fear Eased Naturalization Requirements German Institute for Economic Research No. 4/2010 Volume 6 January 20, 2010 electronic edition available online only www.diw.de Weekly Report The Party Identification of Germany s Immigrant Population:

More information

on 24 September 2017 Election analysis Provisional findings

on 24 September 2017 Election analysis Provisional findings Politics and Consulting Division Berlin, September 2017 Bundestag election in Germany Bundestag election in Germany on 24 September 2017 Election analysis Provisional findings Viola Neu/Sabine Pokorny

More information

A Critical Assessment of the Determinants of Presidential Election Outcomes

A Critical Assessment of the Determinants of Presidential Election Outcomes Trinity University Digital Commons @ Trinity Undergraduate Student Research Awards Information Literacy Committee 3-21-2013 A Critical Assessment of the Determinants of Presidential Election Outcomes Ryan

More information

Forecasting the rise of the Front National during the 2014 municipal elections

Forecasting the rise of the Front National during the 2014 municipal elections Data, Measures and Methods Forecasting the rise of the Front National during the 2014 municipal elections Sylvain Brouard and Martial Foucault* CEVIPOF, CNRS, Sciences Po, 98 rue de l Université, 75007

More information

The 1998 German Federal Election

The 1998 German Federal Election The 1998 German Federal Election Peter James Politics (2000) 20(1) pp. 33 38 The federal election held in Germany on 27 September 1998 marked the end of the Kohl era. It was one of the closest-fought postwar

More information

Discipline, Electoral Rules and Defection in the Bundestag,

Discipline, Electoral Rules and Defection in the Bundestag, Discipline, Electoral Rules and Defection in the Bundestag, 1983 94 MICHAEL BECHER and ULRICH SIEBERER This article examines how party discipline and legislators individual policy goals induced by electoral

More information

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants The Ideological and Electoral Determinants of Laws Targeting Undocumented Migrants in the U.S. States Online Appendix In this additional methodological appendix I present some alternative model specifications

More information

The California Primary and Redistricting

The California Primary and Redistricting The California Primary and Redistricting This study analyzes what is the important impact of changes in the primary voting rules after a Congressional and Legislative Redistricting. Under a citizen s committee,

More information

Party Identification and the Vote. Six European Countries Compared

Party Identification and the Vote. Six European Countries Compared Party Identification and the Vote Six European Countries Compared by Frode Berglund, ISR Oslo Sören Holmberg, University of Gothenburg Hermann Schmitt, MZES, University of Mannheim Jacques Thomassen, University

More information

Is there a relationship between election outcomes and perceptions of personal economic well-being? A test using post-election economic expectations

Is there a relationship between election outcomes and perceptions of personal economic well-being? A test using post-election economic expectations Is there a relationship between election outcomes and perceptions of personal economic well-being? A test using post-election economic expectations Garrett Glasgow University of California, Santa Barbara

More information

Following the Leader: The Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Legislative Support for the President's Policy Preferences

Following the Leader: The Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Legislative Support for the President's Policy Preferences University of Colorado, Boulder CU Scholar Undergraduate Honors Theses Honors Program Spring 2011 Following the Leader: The Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Legislative Support for the President's

More information

Electoral forecasting with Stata

Electoral forecasting with Stata Electoral forecasting with Stata Four years later Modesto Escobar & Pablo Cabrera University of Salamanca (Spain) 2016 Spanish Stata Users Group meeting Barcelona, 20th October, 2016 1 / 18 Introduction

More information

Ticket-splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules: Evidence from Germany

Ticket-splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules: Evidence from Germany European Journal of Political Research 46: 1 23, 2007 1 doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00641.x Ticket-splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules: Evidence from Germany THOMAS GSCHWEND Zentrum

More information

Coalition Preferences in Multiparty Systems

Coalition Preferences in Multiparty Systems Coalition Preferences in Multiparty Systems 1 Coalition Preferences in Multiparty Systems Michael F. Meffert Leiden University mmeffert@gmail.com Thomas Gschwend University of Mannheim gschwend@uni-mannheim.de

More information

Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon. Alfred G. Cuzán. Professor of Political Science

Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon. Alfred G. Cuzán. Professor of Political Science Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon Alfred G. Cuzán Professor of Political Science The University of West Florida Pensacola, FL 32514 acuzan@uwf.edu An earlier,

More information

Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting

Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting An Updated and Expanded Look By: Cynthia Canary & Kent Redfield June 2015 Using data from the 2014 legislative elections and digging deeper

More information

Sciences Po Grenoble working paper n.15

Sciences Po Grenoble working paper n.15 Sciences Po Grenoble working paper n.15 Manifestos and public opinion: a new test of the classic Downsian spatial model Raul Magni Berton, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Sciences Po Grenoble, PACTE Sophie Panel,

More information

Change in the Components of the Electoral Decision. Herbert F. Weisberg The Ohio State University. May 2, 2008 version

Change in the Components of the Electoral Decision. Herbert F. Weisberg The Ohio State University. May 2, 2008 version Change in the Components of the Electoral Decision Herbert F. Weisberg The Ohio State University May 2, 2008 version Prepared for presentation at the Shambaugh Conference on The American Voter: Change

More information

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH VOL. 3 NO. 4 (2005)

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH VOL. 3 NO. 4 (2005) , Partisanship and the Post Bounce: A MemoryBased Model of Post Presidential Candidate Evaluations Part II Empirical Results Justin Grimmer Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Wabash College

More information

Issue Importance and Performance Voting. *** Soumis à Political Behavior ***

Issue Importance and Performance Voting. *** Soumis à Political Behavior *** Issue Importance and Performance Voting Patrick Fournier, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, and Neil Nevitte *** Soumis à Political Behavior *** Issue importance mediates the impact of public

More information

Power in German Politics: An Analysis of the German Electoral System

Power in German Politics: An Analysis of the German Electoral System Power in German Politics: An Analysis of the German Electoral System Josef Schmalfuss University of Cambridge September 6, 2010 Abstract The decision of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany that

More information

Economic Voting Theory. Lidia Núñez CEVIPOL_Université Libre de Bruxelles

Economic Voting Theory. Lidia Núñez CEVIPOL_Université Libre de Bruxelles Economic Voting Theory Lidia Núñez CEVIPOL_Université Libre de Bruxelles In the media.. «Election Forecast Models Clouded by Economy s Slow Growth» Bloomberg, September 12, 2012 «Economics still underpin

More information

UNIVERSITÄTSBIBLIOTHEK BRAUNSCHWEIG

UNIVERSITÄTSBIBLIOTHEK BRAUNSCHWEIG UNIVERSITÄTSBIBLIOTHEK BRAUNSCHWEIG Irem Batool and Gernot Sieg Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results Braunschweig : Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, 2008

More information

The Fundamentals in US Presidential Elections: Public Opinion, the Economy and Incumbency in the 2004 Presidential Election

The Fundamentals in US Presidential Elections: Public Opinion, the Economy and Incumbency in the 2004 Presidential Election Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Vol. 15, No. 1, 73 83, April 2005 The Fundamentals in US Presidential Elections: Public Opinion, the Economy and Incumbency in the 2004 Presidential Election

More information

For slides and the paper.

For slides and the paper. For slides and the paper www.achimgoerres.de Alike at the Core, Different at the Margins: A Comparison of Party Preferences between Immigrant and Native Voters at the 2017 Bundestag Election Achim Goerres

More information

The Timeline Method of Studying Electoral Dynamics. Christopher Wlezien, Will Jennings, and Robert S. Erikson

The Timeline Method of Studying Electoral Dynamics. Christopher Wlezien, Will Jennings, and Robert S. Erikson The Timeline Method of Studying Electoral Dynamics by Christopher Wlezien, Will Jennings, and Robert S. Erikson 1 1. Author affiliation information CHRISTOPHER WLEZIEN is Hogg Professor of Government at

More information

Trust and Heterogeneity in Preference Formation about European Integration

Trust and Heterogeneity in Preference Formation about European Integration Trust and Heterogeneity in Preference Formation about European Integration Research on public support for the European Union has not reached a consensus on the factors that drive attitudes about integration.

More information

Practice Questions for Exam #2

Practice Questions for Exam #2 Fall 2007 Page 1 Practice Questions for Exam #2 1. Suppose that we have collected a stratified random sample of 1,000 Hispanic adults and 1,000 non-hispanic adults. These respondents are asked whether

More information

Electoral Studies. Strategic coalition voting: Evidence from Austria. Michael F. Meffert a, *, Thomas Gschwend b,1. abstract

Electoral Studies. Strategic coalition voting: Evidence from Austria. Michael F. Meffert a, *, Thomas Gschwend b,1. abstract Electoral Studies 29 (2010) 339e349 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Electoral Studies journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud Strategic coalition voting: Evidence from Austria Michael

More information

What is The Probability Your Vote will Make a Difference?

What is The Probability Your Vote will Make a Difference? Berkeley Law From the SelectedWorks of Aaron Edlin 2009 What is The Probability Your Vote will Make a Difference? Andrew Gelman, Columbia University Nate Silver Aaron S. Edlin, University of California,

More information

AVOTE FOR PEROT WAS A VOTE FOR THE STATUS QUO

AVOTE FOR PEROT WAS A VOTE FOR THE STATUS QUO AVOTE FOR PEROT WAS A VOTE FOR THE STATUS QUO William A. Niskanen In 1992 Ross Perot received more votes than any prior third party candidate for president, and the vote for Perot in 1996 was only slightly

More information

Documentation of Indicators

Documentation of Indicators Documentation of Indicators Participation P001 Voter Turnout at the Federal Elections Statistisches Bundesamt, Statistisches Jahrbuch; Statistisches Bundesamt, Ergebnisse der Repräsentativen Wahlstatistik

More information

Electoral Reform Questionnaire Field Dates: October 12-18, 2016

Electoral Reform Questionnaire Field Dates: October 12-18, 2016 1 Electoral Reform Questionnaire Field Dates: October 12-18, 2016 Note: The questions below were part of a more extensive survey. 1. A [ALTERNATE WITH B HALF-SAMPLE EACH] All things considered, would you

More information

The Electoral Cycle in Political Contributions: The Incumbency Advantage of Early Elections

The Electoral Cycle in Political Contributions: The Incumbency Advantage of Early Elections The Electoral Cycle in Political Contributions: The Incumbency Advantage of Early Elections Work in progress please do not cite Abstract The occurrence of early elections varies significantly between and

More information

A positive correlation between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model

A positive correlation between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model Quality & Quantity 26: 85-93, 1992. 85 O 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. Note A positive correlation between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model

More information