1 Participation Voting Campaign Activity Volunteer Contribute money (corporations are people) Contacting officials Group Activity Protest
2 Voter Participation What trends? How does US compare? Which mode has greatest effect?
3 Voter Participation Trends Voting is way down in most nations But in US, we elect lots Campaign activity is flat 3% volunteer Donating flat in US (about 10%) Activity of the wealthiest But trying to persuade others is way
4 % who tried to influence how others vote
5 Voter Participation Trends Contacting officials up (?) People say they will, but do they When? How? ( ?) Group activity (30%) Dalton says it s up, Putman it s down Does Internet act as social group?
6 Other Participation Trends Protesting up? Most sign petitions, up most places Boycott up US, GB Demonstrate, way up in FR & Germany 17% in US Occupy down/flat 2-4% in US Strike down/flat
7 Participation Again, what has most consequences for what government does? Which is easiest? What differences between how wealthy and others participate?
8 Voter Turnout Who votes, who doesn t? Why? Why a decline? Is there a decline? What proposals to increase turnout?
9 Voter Turnout in US Is there a turnout problem? In US about 50-55% vote in presidential elections up in 2004 & 2008 (+60%), down in 12 about 30-35% vote in congressional elections Washington state above the national average
10 US Turnout Compared US turnout low compared to other est. democracies Other democracies also show decline
11 US Turnout Compared 1950s vs. 1990s / 2000 Few est. democracies have turnout increasing
12 Voter Turnout In the US there was a steady decline turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960 up in 2008 turnout much lower now than 1900 why?? today, a lower % of eligible voters participate far more eligible voters now
13 Turnout Trend through 2008 Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout Since 1980 Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population M. McDonald data
15 Voter Turnout % drop to 62% in 1904 voter registration laws Jim Crow laws % drop to 42% in 1920 suffrage to women size of eligible electorate doubled % drop to 51% in 1948 WWII % drop to 52% 1972 suffrage granted to 18 y/olds
17 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline since 1890s? Old numbers from a different context high mobilization labor intensive parties limited pool of eligible voters fraud more mobilization then vs. now?
18 Voter Turnout in US 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962) 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966) 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970) 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986) 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990) 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998) 2012 = 57% in pres (41% in 2010)
19 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline since 1960s? Demise of parties campaigns now capital intensive (ads) less direct contacts w/ voters candidate centered politics party building efforts (soft money) for GOTV had little effect
20 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Demise of competition Fewer US House races competitive vs. 1960s even with demise of one-party south Fewer state legislative seats competitive Campaign activity concentrated in rare, competitive districts (and states)
21 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Demise of Competition Effects of competition 10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more 2 initiatives = 1% more Senate race, Gov race...
22 Voter Turnout in US Why increase in 2004 & 2008 Were the stakes higher? 2000 election result? some new issue? candidate effects?
23 Voter Turnout in US Why low in US? Regulatory barriers 30 day advance registration vote only on day of election must vote at specific location limits on use of mail, absentee ballots Prohibition on felons voting
25 Barriers to voting Lowest ND, OR, UT, IA, ME, VT, NH, CA Highest MS, AL, KY, VA, MD, FL, TX, LA
26 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline Regulator barriers What effects of Election Day Registration (EDR)? Seven states 4.5% increase in presidential elections 2.0% increase in midterm
27 Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming (ND doesn t require registration) In WA proposal to have shorter pre-reg. period but not EDR
28 Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration Why bother? makes voting more convenient Who will take advantage???????
29 Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration Proponents: Democratic Party Opponents: County Auditors Bureaucratic nightmare requires more staff vote provisional ballot? check if registered/voted in other county
30 Voter Turnout Felon disenfranchisement Two states do not ban from voting (Maine and Vermont) Some states restore after release / probation (ex Felons) Some states make ban permanent (unless govt. approves individual s restoration)
31 Voter Turnout Felon Laws Adoption corresponds with extension of rights to Black Americans Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws type of crimes covered changed
32 Voter Turnout Effects of Felon bans There might not be a decline in turnout Levels of criminal punishment in US way, way up More felons than ever (Why??) 1.4% of Voting age pop by 2000 was.5% before 1982 More non citizens 6% of US Voting age population by 2000 up from 2% in 1966
33 Voter Turnout in the US Why a decline Regulatory Barriers Not a factor growing over time Easier to register now, easier to vote by mail EDR explains variation in an election, not since 1960.
34 Voter Turnout in US ecline mostly outside of south Low turnout rate of young (post 1972) accounts for 1/4 of decline VAP vs. VEP...
35 Turnout 2004, 2008 Change VEP» White 66.1% 63.8% -1.1 Black 65.2% 60.3% +4.9 Hispanic 49.9% 47.2% +2.7 Asian 47.0% 44.7% +2.4 All 63.6% 63.8% -0.2
36 Turnout by Age Not quite linear Young voters lowest turnout Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008 charles franklin data
37 Turnout by Age Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate Greatest underrepresentation in voting
38 Turnout by Age Under-representation? Youth vote by party % Dem % Dem % Dem % Dem
39 Decline or not... Many, most don t vote In many nations, clear decline Where are the voters going? Cohort vs. lifecycle effects
40 Voter Turnout So why don t young people vote? efficacy life experiences re: politics campaigns don t care about them? Rock to Vote, Vote or Die? youth vote way up in place where competitive races (stakes are higher) youth vote 17% nationally in 2004; 19% 2012
42 Voter Turnout So, who votes? Education Age (old people rule) Cohort and life cycle effects Partisans (not independents) Income Efficacy OK, so what drives efficacy
43 Voter Turnout When & Why do they vote? Regular voters older people and well educated Peripheral voters younger people and less-educated
44 Voter turnout Competitive elections mobilize larger effect on young & less educated Presidential race 2004 person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th grade ed. had.46 prob. of voting person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed.55 prob.
45 Voter Turnout Midterm election (2002) 33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate race =.37 prob. of voting 33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate race.77 prob. of voting for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway
46 Voter Turnout in US What difference would it make if turnout was higher? Composition of electorate change? EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone greater effect on young, less educated
47 Voter Turnout in US What happens if higher turnout and low participating groups show up? Young people Less affluent Ex-felons
48 Voter Turnout Uggen & Manza Because felons are drawn from ranks of poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems. Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws Thus changed composition of US Courts
49 Young voters nominated Obama 2008 Primaries Ds NH % Obama, 22% HRC Ds NH over 65 32% Obama, 48% HRC Ds FL % Obama, 39% HRC Ds FL over 65 24% Obama, 59% HRC Ds IA % Obama, 11% HRC Ds IA over 65 18% Obama, 45% HRC
50 Voter Turnout Dem primaries: Obama won where youth turnout reduced age gap 28% over 65 in FL, 5 % under 25 13% over 65 in NH, 11% under 25 25% over 65 in IA, 22% under 27 26% over 60 in MI, 8% under 25
The Youth Vote in 2008 By Emily Hoban Kirby and Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg 1 Updated August 17, 2009 Estimates from the Census Current Population Survey November Supplement suggest that the voter turnout rate
The Rising American Electorate Their Growing Numbers and Political Potential Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri Lake Research Partners Washington, DC Berkeley, CA New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066
Unsuccessful Provisional Voting in the 2008 General Election David C. Kimball and Edward B. Foley The 2002 Help America Vote Act (HAVA) required most states to adopt or expand procedures for provisional
January 17, 2017 in State Legislatures 2017 Kelly Dittmar, Ph.D. In 2017, 1832 women (1107D, 703R, 4I, 4Prg, 1WFP, 13NP) hold seats in state legislatures, comprising 24.8% of the 7383 members; 442 women
Geek s Guide, Election 2012 by Prof. Sam Wang, Princeton University Princeton Election Consortium http://election.princeton.edu This document presents a) Key states to watch early in the evening; b) Ways
AP US GOVERNMENT & POLITICS UNIT 2 REVIEW POLITICAL BELIEFS & BEHAVIORS Public Opinion vs. Political Ideology Public opinion: the distribution of the population s beliefs about politics and policy issues.
October 17, 2012 State Legislative Competition in 2012: Redistricting and Party Polarization Drive Decrease In Competition John J. McGlennon, Ph.D. Government Department Chair and Professor of Government
Unit 2: Political Beliefs and Behaviors Session 2: Political Participation Learning Targets How do Americans participate politically? How have voting rights been suppressed within the United States How
67 Emerywood Court Manassas, Virginia 202 202 789.2004 tel. or 703 580.7267 703 580.6258 fax Info@electiondataservices.com EMBARGOED UNTIL 6:0 P.M. EST, SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 200 Date: September 26, 200
FOR RELEASE APRIL 26, 2018 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget Johnson, Communications Associate 202.419.4372
Voting FAQs 1. What are the requirements to register to vote in Oregon? 2. It s the day before Election Day and I am ready to register. Can I? 3. When should I update my voter registration? 4. Must I select
THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS (and a few other things) Gary Moncrief University Distinguished Professor of Political Science Boise State University NEW LEADERSHIP IDAHO 2016 Lets start with a few other things
FACT SHEET CIRCLE The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement The Youth Vote 2004 By Mark Hugo Lopez, Emily Kirby, and Jared Sagoff 1 July 2005 Estimates from all sources suggest
NATIONAL VOTER REGISTRATION DAY September 26, 2017 THE PROBLEM Every year millions of Americans find themselves unable to vote because they miss a registration deadline, don t update their registration,
28 Democratic Nomination God s gift to government teachers The Big Picture - Step 1 Each state holds a primary or caucus between January & June States who hold their contests early get more media and candidate
FOR RELEASE MARCH 01, 2018 The Generation Gap in American Politics Wide and growing divides in views of racial discrimination FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research
The Presidential Election Paul Beck, The Ohio State University Lifelong Learning Institute December 7, 2016 1 Introduction: Fundamentals of the 2016 Presidential Contests 2016 presidential results with
ELECTION UPDATE Tom Davis Polarization The Ideological sorting of the parties 1. Redistricting Residential Sorting Voting Rights Act Gerrymandering 2. Media Business Models Cable News Talk Radio Internet
Prison Price Tag The High Cost of Wisconsin s Corrections Policies November 19, 2015 Wisconsin s overuse of jails and prisons has resulted in outsized costs for state residents. By emphasizing high-cost
New Americans in the VOTING Booth The Growing Electoral Power OF Immigrant Communities By Walter A. Ewing, Ph.D. and Guillermo Cantor, Ph.D. Special Report October 2014 New Americans in the VOTING Booth:
AL ALABAMA Ala. Code 10-2B-15.02 (2009) [Transferred, effective January 1, 2011, to 10A-2-15.02.] No monetary penalties listed. May invalidate in-state contracts made by unqualified foreign corporations.
Where Have All the Voters Gone? A Discussion Guide Many Americans express frustration and concern about poor and decreasing voter turnout rates in local and national elections. Discussion about why citizens
Campaign 16 A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016 Agenda I. The Knowns II. The Unknowns III. The Early Appeals IV. The Hard Questions Bring Down Title The Knowns It s a Big Political
Discussion Guide for PRIMARIES in MARYLAND: Open vs. Closed? Top Two/Four or by Party? Plurality or Majority? DL: Discussion Leader RP: if also have Resource Person from Study 10/7/17 note: It takes about
Graduation and Retention Rates of Nonresidents by State March 2011 Highlights: California, Illinois, and Texas are the states with the largest numbers of nonresidents. Students from Ohio and Wyoming persist
Field Date: November 4, 2014 Margin of Error: ±3.5% the polling company, inc./womantrend on behalf of Judicial Watch/Breitbart National Post-Election Survey of 806 Actual Voters TOPLINE DATA **PLEASE NOTE:
HAVA Implementation in the 50 States: A Summary of State Implementation Plans The Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, DEMOS, the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights Education Fund, and People
Voting and Elections The Two Step Election Process Primaries: Held by the parties to select their nominees. Organized on the state level. Generally held in the spring, but dates vary state to state. Democrats
UNIT THREE POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION PUBLIC OPINION PUBLIC OPINION, THE SPECTRUM, & ISSUE TYPES ITEM PUBLIC OPINION IDEOLOGY THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM (LIBERAL- CONSERVATIVE SPECTRUM)
FINAL REPORT OF THE 2004 ELECTION DAY SURVEY Submitted to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission Kimball W. Brace, Principal Investigator Dr. Michael P. McDonald, Consultant EAC Survey Analysis Support
2008 Electoral Vote Preliminary Preview ʺIn Clinton, the superdelegates have a candidate who fits their recent mold and the last two elections have been very close. This year is a bad year for Republicans.
State Limits on to Candidates 2015-2016 Election Cycle Individual Candidate Alabama Ala. Code 17-5-1 et seq. Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Alaska 15.13.070 and 15.13.074(f) $500//year
Cambridge Analytica offers a range of enhanced audience segments drawn from our national database of over 220 million Americans. These segments can be used individually or together to power highly targeted
CHAPTER 5 Public Opinion and Political Participation CHAPTER OUTLINE I. What Is Public Opinion? II. How We Develop Our Beliefs and Opinions A. Agents of Political Socialization B. Adult Socialization III.
BLW YouGov spec This study is being conducted by John Carey, Gretchen Helmke, Brendan Nyhan, and Susan Stokes, who are professors at Dartmouth College (Carey and Nyhan), the University of Rochester (Helmke),
American Bar Association CPR Policy Implementation Committee Variations of the ABA Model Rules of Professional Conduct RULE 1.14: CLIENT WITH DIMINISHED CAPACITY (a) When a client's capacity to make adequately
By Jerry Spriggs 2012, 2016 and 2017, All rights reserved by Jerry Spriggs This sample edition is a free version that can be used any anyone interested in our U.S. Presidential elections. The rights reserved
Chapter Nine Campaigns, Elections and the Media Learning Outcomes 1. Discuss who runs for office and how campaigns are managed. 2. Describe the current system of campaign finance. 3. Summarize the process
The One-Man One-Vote Myth: The Impact of Non-Voting Populations on Congressional Apportionment December 20th, 2007 Orlando J. Rodriguez, M.A. Manager/Connecticut State Data Center College of Liberal Arts
January 2010 Of the People, By the People, For the People A 2010 Report Card on Statewide Voter Initiative Rights Executive Summary For over a century, the initiative and referendum process has given voters
Political Attitudes &Participation: Campaigns & Elections State & Local Government POS 2112 Ch 5 Votes for Women, inspired by Katja Von Garner. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvqnjwkw7ga We will examine:
As of January 26, 2017 2017 American Bar Association AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION CENTER FOR PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY CPR POLICY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE COMPARISON OF ABA MODEL RULE FOR PRO HAC VICE ADMISSION
Same-Sex Marriage Initiatives and Lesbian, Gay and Bisexual Voters in the 2006 Elections * by Patrick J. Egan ** Kenneth Sherrill *** In the November 2006 elections, a ballot measure banning same-sex marriage
Lecture Outline: Chapter 7 Campaigns and Elections I. An examination of the campaign tactics used in the presidential race of 1896 suggests that the process of running for political office in the twenty-first
How States Can Achieve More Effective Public Safety Policies Arkansas Legislative Criminal Justice Oversight Task Force and Behavioral Health Treatment Access Task Force July 13, 2015 Marc Pelka, Deputy
Nonvoters in America 2012 A Study by Professor Ellen Shearer Medill School of Journalism, Media, Integrated Marketing Communications Northwestern University Survey Conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs When
Part 1 Role of Mass Media Questions to Ask What is Mass Media? How does the mass media fulfill its role to provide the public with political information? How does the mass media influence politics? What
Was the Joke on the Democrats Again?: Registration, Turnout, and Partisan Choice in the 2004 Presidential Election Michael D. Martinez Department of Political Science University of Florida Gainesville,
Apportioning Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives Using the Estimated Citizen Royce Crocker Specialist in American National Government October 30, 2015 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov
Applying Ranked Choice Voting to Congressional Elections The Case for RCV with the Top Four Primary and Multi-Member Districts Rob Richie, FairVote American Exceptionalism: Inescapable Realities for Reformers
APPENDIX C STATE UNIFORM TRUST CODE STATUTES 122 STATE STATE UNIFORM TRUST CODE STATUTES CITATION Alabama Ala. Code 19-3B-101 19-3B-1305 Arkansas Ark. Code Ann. 28-73-101 28-73-1106 District of Columbia
A New America A New Majority A New Challenge Women's Voices. (WVWV) WVWV is a 501(c)3 nonprofit, nonpartisan organization and does not endorse candidates. WVWV is dedicated to increasing the share of unmarried
Draft: August 2017 Taking the Mystery Out of Voting A How-To Guide Turn Up Turnout at the University of Michigan TUTUofM@gmail.com Table of Contents 1 2. Introduction 3.....Things to do Before the Workshop
LEARNING OBJECTIVES After studying Chapter 10, you should be able to: 1. Explain the functions and unique features of American elections. 2. Describe how American elections have evolved using the presidential
MEDIA COVERAGE Select Newspaper Reports and Commentary Turnout was up across the board. Youth turnout increased and kept up with the overall increase, said Carrie Donovan, CIRCLE s young vote director.
The Outlook for the 2010 Midterm Elections: How Large a Wave? What is at stake? All 435 House seats 256 Democratic seats 179 Republican seats Republicans needs to gain 39 seats for majority 37 Senate seats
The Changing Face of Labor, 1983-28 John Schmitt and Kris Warner November 29 Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 4 Washington, D.C. 29 22-293-538 www.cepr.net CEPR
Voter Behavior Who, What & When of Voting Americans Key Terms off-year election: a congressional election held in the even years between presidential elections ballot fatigue: a phenomenon that results
CITIZEN ADVOCACY CENTER Young Voters and Civic Participation LESSON PLAN AND ACTIVITIES All rights reserved. No part of this lesson plan may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical
Oregon Voter Participation Assistance for language minority voters outside of Voting Rights Act mandates Automatic restoration of voting rights for ex-felons Automatic voter registration 1 in Continuation
American Bar Association CPR Policy Implementation Committee Variations of the ABA Model Rules of Professional Conduct RULE 3.8(g) AND (h): (g) When a prosecutor knows of new, credible and material evidence
NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JULY 07, 2016 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget Johnson,
Chapter 6: Voters and Voter Behavior Section 1 The Electorate The Constitution originally gave the power to decide voter qualifications to the States. Since 1789, many restrictions on voting rights have
Gerrymandering: the serpentine art VCW State & Local What is gerrymandering? Each state elects a certain number of congressional Reps. Process is controlled by the party in power in the state legislature
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE? ANDREW GELMAN, NATE SILVER and AARON EDLIN One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election,
American democracy is challenged by large gaps in voter turnout by income, age, and other factors. Closing these gaps will require a sustained effort to understand and address the numerous and different
Multiple Choice 1. Which of the following is a new restrictive law implemented by Arizona? a. Voters must be twenty-one years of age to be eligible to vote. b. Voters must first obtain a driving license
executive summary the poverty and inequality report The Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality David B. Grusky, Marybeth J. Mattingly, and Charles Varner The Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
409 Silverside Road, Suite 105 Wilmington, DE 19809 Instructions for Completing the Trustee Certification/Affidavit for a Securities-Backed Line of Credit FORM COMPLETION REQUIRED: The Bancorp Bank requires
By Kamala Harris (D-CA), U.S. Senator It s been 50 years since former U.S. Rep. Shirley Chisholm (D-NY) became the first Black woman elected to U.S. Congress. Her arrival on the national political stage
The Great Immigration Turnaround New Facts and Old Rhetoric Dowell Myers USC Sol Price School of Public Policy Overview Where is immigration growing fastest? Divided opinion and fears about immigration
Political Participation and Voter Turnout A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls. (George W. Bush) Don t vote. It only encourages them. (Unknown) Question: Is it rational
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS AND IMMIGRATION POLITICS IN ARIZONA March 4, 2014 Latino influence in Arizona Demographic trends Participation and party competition Immigration Politics The Arizona Population Today
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, 3, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
Standard 12.3.1 & 12.6.4 12.3.1 Explain how civil society provides opportunities for individuals to associate for social, cultural, religious, economic and political purposes. 12.6.4 Describe the means
Case 1:13-cv-00660-TDS-JEP Document 117-10 Filed 05/19/14 Page 1 of 39 League of Women Voters of North Carolina, et al. v. State of North Carolina, et al., 1:13-CV-660 (M.D.N.C.) Expert Report Submitted