EU Coalition Explorer

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1 Coalition Explorer Results of the 28 Survey on coalition building in the European Union an initiative of Results for ECFR May 2017 Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

2 Findings Coalition Potential Ranks 1 to 14 Ranks 15 to 28 Country Findings AT BE BG HR CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Preferences ranks overall #16 at Preferences #16 #17 #14 Partners #16 #8 #17 #16 Q1 Most Contacted Q2 Shared Interests Q3 Most Responsive ranks overall #12 at Partners Q10 Foreign and Development Policy Q11 Security and Defense Policy Q12 Economic and Social Policy Q13 Fiscal Policy 3 for EE Finland Finland 1. Finland for EE HR PL Finland ranks #9 at More Europe #9 Q14 Deeper Integration 3 for EE BG HR CZ FI Q16 Expert View Level of Decision-Making Q17 Public View EE Networks Voting for 8 for EE Finland Czech Rep. All member states Legally bound core Coalition of states Only national level EE EE Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

3 Most contacted Votes for Q1 In your view or experience, which other governments would your own government generally contact first and/or most on matters? (select up to five) Of respondents, received 22 (1.6) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 2 Affluent 7 1 Big 6 1 Visegrád 4 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Finland Czech Rep. 1 Denmark 1 Italy Preferences Overview Most Contacted Shared Interests Most Responsive Most Disappointing Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

4 Shared Interests Votes for Q2 In your view or experience, which other member states generally share many of your own s interests and preferences on policies? (select up to five) Of respondents, received 42 (2.6) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 4 Visegrád 4 3 Affluent 7 2 Big 6 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Finland Denmark 1 Germany 1 Italy Preferences Overview Most Contacted Shared Interests Most Responsive Most Disappointing Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

5 Most Responsive Votes for Q3 In your view or experience, which other governments or member states have shown to be most responsive or are easiest to work with? (select up to five) Of respondents, received 40 (3.3) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 6 Affluent 7 5 Visegrád 4 2 Big 6 1 Founding 6 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain 22 Finland Netherlands 2 2 Czech Rep. 2 Denmark 2 Hungary 1 Germany 1 Spain Preferences Overview Most Contacted Shared Interests Most Responsive Most Disappointing Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

6 Most Disappointing Votes for Q4 In your view or experience, which other governments or member states have disappointed your own government? (select up to five) Of respondents, received 8 (0.7) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 2 Southern 7 1 Affluent 7 1 Big 6 1 Founding 6 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain 4 2 Finland 2 France 2 Portugal 2 Spain 1 Italy Preferences Overview Most Contacted Shared Interests Most Responsive Most Disappointing Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

7 Big Six Overall Policy Ranking by Q5 Based on your view or experience, please rank the six large member states according to their overall influence on policy over the past five years. (first rank being the most influential) Big Six Founding Six Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Southern Seven Visegrád Four Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain First Rank Second Rank Third Rank Germany France Fourth Rank Fifth Rank Sixth Rank Italy Spain Italy Spain Influence Overview Big Six Overall Policy Big Six Fiscal Policy Big Six Foreign and Security Policy Other Countries Number of respondents: 2. Size of rectangles corresponds with respondents respective rankings. Countries with equal values are sorted from A-Z. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

8 Big Six Fiscal Policy Ranking by Q6 Please rank the six large member states according to their influence on fiscal policy over the past five years. (first rank being the most influential) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four First Rank Second Rank Third Rank Germany France Italy France Italy Spain Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Italy Fourth Rank Fifth Rank Sixth Rank Spain Italy Italy Spain Spain Italy Spain Influence Overview Big Six Overall Policy Big Six Fiscal Policy Big Six Foreign and Security Policy Other Countries Italy Germany Number of respondents: 2. Size of rectangles corresponds with respondents respective rankings. Countries with equal values are sorted from A-Z. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

9 Big Six Foreign and Security Policy Ranking by Q7 Please rank the six large member states according to their influence on foreign, security and defence policy over the past five years. (first rank being the most influential) Big Six Founding Six Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Southern Seven Visegrád Four Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain First Rank Second Rank Third Rank France Germany France Fourth Rank Fifth Rank Sixth Rank Italy Germany Spain Influence Overview Big Six Overall Policy Big Six Fiscal Policy Big Six Foreign and Security Policy Other Countries Number of respondents: 2. Size of rectangles corresponds with respondents respective rankings. Countries with equal values are sorted from A-Z. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

10 Ranking by First Rank Netherlands Q8 Based on your view or experience, please rank the list of affluent seven member states according to their overall influence on policy over the past five years. (first rank being the most influential) Big Six Founding Six Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Southern Seven Visegrád Four Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Second Rank Third Rank Fourth Rank Finland Denmark Fifth Rank Sixth Rank Seventh Rank Denmark Finland Influence Overview Big Six Overall Policy Big Six Fiscal Policy Big Six Foreign and Security Policy Other Countries Number of respondents: 2. Size of rectangles corresponds with respondents respective rankings. Countries with equal values are sorted from A-Z. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

11 Foreign and Development Policy Votes for Q10 Which other member states would your government see as essential partners in Foreign and Development Policy? Of respondents, received 36 (2.1) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 3 Visegrád 4 2 Affluent 7 2 Big 6 1 Founding 6 1 Southern 7 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Czech Rep. 2 Denmark 2 Finland 2 Hungary 1 Germany 1 Italy 1 Netherlands 1 Spain Partners Overview Foreign and Development Policy Security and Defense Policy Economic and Social Policy Fiscal Policy Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

12 Security and Defense Policy Votes for Q11 Which other member states would your government see as essential partners in Security and Defense Policy? Of respondents, received 56 (3.4) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 4 Visegrád 4 3 Affluent 7 3 Big 6 2 Founding 6 2 Southern 7 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Denmark Finland 4 Germany Hungary 3 Italy 3 Netherlands 2 Czech Rep. 2 Portugal 2 Spain 1 France Partners Overview Foreign and Development Policy Security and Defense Policy Economic and Social Policy Fiscal Policy Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

13 Economic and Social Policy Votes for Q12 Which other member states would your government see as essential partners in Economic and Social Policy? Of respondents, received 37 (2.4) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 3 Visegrád 4 2 Affluent 7 2 Big 6 2 Southern 7 1 Founding 6 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Finland Spain 2 Czech Rep. 2 Hungary 2 Italy 1 Denmark 1 Germany 1 Netherlands Partners Overview Foreign and Development Policy Security and Defense Policy Economic and Social Policy Fiscal Policy Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

14 Fiscal Policy Votes for Q13 Which other member states would your government see as essential partners in Fiscal Policy? Of respondents, received 24 (2) Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four 2 Big 6 2 Founding 6 2 Southern 7 1 Affluent 7 1 Visegrád 4 Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Germany 3 Hungary 3 Italy 2 Spain 1 Denmark 1 Netherlands Partners Overview Foreign and Development Policy Security and Defense Policy Economic and Social Policy Fiscal Policy Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

15 Commitment to Deeper Integration Votes for Q14 In your opinion, which member states are committed to deeper integration or more Europe? Of respondents, received 71 (3.5) Big Six Founding Six Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Southern Seven Visegrád Four Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Overview Commitment to Deeper Integration Importance of Coalitions Preferred Actor Level Preferred Actor Level (Public View) 4 Visegrád 4 3 Affluent 7 3 Big 6 2 Founding 6 2 Southern Czech Rep. 7 Finland Germany 4 3 Denmark 3 Hungary 3 Italy 3 3 Netherlands France 2 Portugal 2 1 Spain Rounded results. 0 shares not shown. Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

16 Preferred Actor Level Votes by Q16 What actor level would your prefer for the following list of policy projects? All member states: 53 of votes Legally bound core of member states: 22 of votes Coalition of member states: 22 of votes Only national level: 3 of votes Countries Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four Integrated foreign and security policy Common defense structures Common border police and coast guard Common policy in justice & home affairs Common immigration and asylum policy Common development assistance p. Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Common Russia policy Better governance for the eurozone Common Ukraine policy Fully completed single market Common Syria policy Common social policy Common MENA policy Common energy policy Common China policy Single climate policy Overview Commitment to Deeper Integration Importance of Coalitions Preferred Actor Level Preferred Actor Level (Public View) Number of respondents: 2. Share of Don t know votes shown by open circles Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

17 Preferred Actor Level (Public View) Votes by Q17 What actor level would your prefer for the following list of policy projects? All member states: 55 of votes Legally bound core of member states: 19 of votes Coalition of member states: 11 of votes Only national level: 15 of votes Countries Big Six Founding Six Southern Seven Visegrád Four Integrated foreign and security policy Common defense structures Common border police and coast guard Common policy in justice & home affairs Common immigration and asylum policy Common development assistance p. Czech Rep. Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Common Russia policy Better governance for the eurozone Common Ukraine policy Fully completed single market Common Syria policy Common social policy Common MENA policy Common energy policy Common China policy Single climate policy Overview Commitment to Deeper Integration Importance of Coalitions Preferred Actor Level Preferred Actor Level (Public View) Number of respondents: 29 Design Findings Chapters Preferences Influence Partners

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