Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

Transcription

1 Why Americans Vote the Way They Do Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University 22 September /36

2 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Red and Blue States 2004 election 2/36

3 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Rich States are More Democratic... Republican vote by state in 2004 UT Vote share for George Bush 30% 50% 70% WY ID NE OK ND AL KS AK MS MT SD IN TX KY SC GA WV LA TN NC AR AZ MO VA FL CO NM NV IA OH WI NH OR MI PA MN ME HI DE WA IL CA MD VT RI NY MA NJ CT $20,000 $30,000 Average income within state 3/36

4 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)...But Rich People are More Republican! Bush vote in 2004 by income 2006 House exit polls Vote share for Bush 30% 50% 70% 0 $100,000 $200,000 Individual income Republican vote share 30% 50% 70% South Midwest West Northeast low middle high Income 4/36

5 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) The Book 5/36

6 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) David Brooks and Maryland Like upscale areas everywhere, from Silicon Valley to Chicago s North Shore to suburban Connecticut, Montgomery County supported the Democratic ticket by a margin of 63 percent to 34 percent. In Red America churches are everywhere. In Blue America Thai restaurants are everywhere. In Red America they have QVC, the Pro Bowlers Tour, and hunting. In Blue America we have NPR, Doris Kearns Goodwin, and socially conscious investing. Vote share for George Bush 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Income and voting in Maryland counties Baltimore $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 Median household income within county Montgomery 6/36

7 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Starbucks and Walmart Wal Marts per capita Starbucks per capita 7/36

8 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Counterexample: Texas Vote share for George Bush 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Income and voting in Texas counties Collin Austin Zavala $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 Median household income within county 8/36

9 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) The Key to the Answer: Context Matters How wealthy you are affects how you vote (and think) But how much it does depends on where you live context matters Varying slopes Where people live conditions the individual effect of things like income differently In some states the rich are very different from the poor but not in other states Explains Maryland and Texas 9/36

10 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Anna Karenina and the Paradox Solved Probability of voting for Bush 25% 50% 75% Mississippi Ohio Connecticut Poor voters Middle income voters Rich voters 10/36

11 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) These Effects are Systematically True Avg Income vs. Var Slope 2000 Slope MS WV AR AL NM LA MT KY OK ME UT ID SC ND SD TN IANC MO VT GA OR OH AZ KS TX WIRI HI FL DE INNE MI PA WY NV MN IL CO NH VA WA MD NY MA CA NJ Avg State Income ($10k) CT 11/36

12 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) What if Only X Voted? State winners (rich voters only) rich voters vote share for George Bush 30% 50% 70% MS AL UT WV AR ID MT OK LA ND WY KY NE KS GA AK NM SC SDTN NC IN TX MO AZIA OH FL ME OR WI CO HI MI PA NVA DEMN NH VT RI WA IL CA MD NY NJ MA CT $20,000 $30,000 State winners (middle income voters) middle income voters vote share for George Bush 30% 50% 70% UT ID WY AL OKND NE MS MT KS AK LA KY IN AR SC SD TX WV TN GA AZ NC NM MO FL VA IA OH NV CO OR WIMI PA ME HI DE MN NH WA IL CA MD VT RI NY MA NJ CT $20,000 $30,000 State winners (poor voters only) vote share for George Bush 30% 50% 70% poor voters UT WY ID NE OKND INKS AK SD TX MT AL SC KY AZ GA VA TNNC CO CT FL NV MS LA CA AR IA MO NH MI MN NJ WV OH NM OR WI HI PA WA DE IL MD NY ME MA VT RI $20,000 $30,000 12/36

13 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) How Journalists See the Country One of the Republican Party s major successes over the last few decades has been to persuade many of the working poor to vote for tax breaks for billionaires. Nicholas Kristof, New York Times columnist Who are the trustfunders? People with enough money not to have to work for a living, or not to have to work very hard. These people tend to be very liberal politically.... Michael Barone, author of the Almanac of American Politics 13/36

14 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Thomas Frank and Kansas Vote for Bush 40% 60% 80% low mid high Kansas 2004 Kansas 2000 Individual income 14/36

15 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Thinking Like a Scientist What s your evidence? How does this fit in with what else you know? What have you found beyond what people thought before? How did all those smart people who came before get things wrong? 15/36

16 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Pauline Kael and Availability Bias I can t believe Nixon won. I don t know anybody who voted for him. attributed (in error) to Pauline Kael, movie critic for the New Yorker Availability bias: the tendency to generalize based on nearby information 16/36

17 The Paradox Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right) Michael Barone and Availability Bias It evidently irritates many liberals to point out that their party gets heavy support from superaffluent people of fashion and does not run very well among the common people. Michael Barone Second-order availability bias: generalizing from observed correlations The people you know are high-income and vote Democratic. Therefore... 17/36

18 30 Years Ago, Things Were Different Republican vote by state in election Vote share for Gerald Ford 30% 50% 70% MS UT ID NE WY AZ VT NH CO ND MT IN KS MI CT NM WA NV SDME OK VA IA ILNJ OHOR CA HI KY LA MO TX WIPA FL DENY MD SC AL TN NC RI MN WV MA AR GA $15,000 $20,000 Average income within state 18/36

19 Rich Voters Remain Republican Vote among rich voters minus Republican vote among poor voters Difference in Republican Vote 0 20% 40% All Voters Southern Voters Non Southern Voters /36

20 Rich States Now Vote for Democrats Republican vote in rich states minus Republican vote in poor states Difference in Republican vote 20% 0 20% All states Southern states Non Southern states /36

21 Putting It Together Rich state, poor state gap in Republican vote among poor, middle income, and rich voters Republican vote in poor states, minus Republican vote in rich states 0% 10% 20% High income voters Middle income voters Low income voters /36

22 Incomplete for the Change in State Vote Is it rich people who are changing? No. We showed that in the beginning Is it race? Mostly no. Excluding blacks from the analysis diminishes the effects we see only partly Is it the South? No. We see the effects in the South and outside of it. Is it inequality? No. Interstate income inequality has changed little, and intrastate income inequality is more tied to immigration trends 22/36

23 Our explanation I The poor are similar across states; but the rich are different In poor states, the rich are more socially and economically conservative than poor people. In rich states, the rich are more economically conservative than poor people, but they re more socially liberal, too (and less observant). 23/36

24 Our explanation II Voters haven t changed within states and states havn t changed much either, but parties have Parties are more polarized than they ve ever been. Democrats and Republicans are further apart than ever before. Positions by elites are more uniform than they ve been in the past. The end of Rockefeller Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats. Wealthy people in rich, blue states are conflicted in their party choice; hence the flat slope. Wealthy people in poor, red states are not conflicted in their party choice; hence the high slope. 24/36

25 Opiate of the Masses vs. Postmaterialism I don t know that atheists should be considered citizens, nor should they be considered patriots. This is one nation under God. George H. W. Bush Opiate of the Masses: Rich people vote their interests, poor people vote Gods, guns, and gays Postmaterialism: Poor people vote based on economics, rich people have the luxury to vote on social issues 25/36

26 Opiate No, Postmaterialism Yes Bush vote in 2004 by income and religious attendance Probability of voting for Bush 40% 50% 60% 70% if you attend church more than once/week if you attend once or twice/month if you never attend church poor middle income rich 26/36

27 Takeaway points Democrats win rich states, but Republicans do better among richer voters within each state There really is something new under the political sun What s the matter with Connecticut? If you want to understand the differences between states, study the wealthy The culture war is real but is concentrated among upper-income voters It s easy to get confused: media center states don t look like the rest of the country 27/36

28 End Time for Your Questions 28/36

29 Race Doesn t Explain Things Whites only: Rich state, poor state gap in Republican vote among poor, middle income, and rich voters Republican vote in poor states, minus Republican vote in rich states 0% 10% 20% High income white voters Middle income white voters Low income white voters /36

30 Religion and State Income Average State Religious Attendance MS AR AL LA SC TN UTOK KY NC SD GA TX KS WV ND MO NE IA IN VAMN OH WI PA IL MI NM FL DE MD ID RI WY AZ CO NY MT CA OR ME WA NV NH VT MA NJ CT $25,000 $35,000 Average State Income 30/36

31 Inequality in the States States with high and low income inequality 31/36

32 Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy Percentage supporting the war 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Partisan disagreement over the Iraq war Republicans Independents Democrats /36

33 Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy Percentage supporting the war 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Support for Korean war Democrats Republicans Support for Vietnam war Democrats Republicans /36

34 Polarized Parties: Domestic Policy 34/36

35 Other Countries: Income and Voting Asia and Oceania Conservative vote share among rich, minus conservative vote share among poor 0 25% 0 25% 0 25% Czech Poland Romania Bulgaria Ukraine Russia Hungary Peru Chile Mexico South Korea Taiwan New Zealand Spain Slovenia Portugal Israel Australia Europe Hong Kong Finland Japan Sweden Italy Germany Denmark Netherlands Norway United Kingdom Iceland Belgium Switzerland France Ireland North and South America Canada United States Brazil 0 20,000 40,000 GDP per capita 35/36

36 Other Countries: Income, Religion, and Voting 25% 0 25% Ukraine Bulgaria Russia Romania Brazil Conservative vote, compared to national average 25% 0 25% 25% 0 25% 25% 0 25% 25% 0 25% Poland Hungary Czech Mexico Slovenia Portugal Korea New Zealand Israel Italy Belgium Australia France Germany Netherlands Britain Ireland Sweden Hong Kong Denmark 25% 0 25% Iceland Switzerland Norway United States Japan Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich 36/36