Public Opinion and Climate Change. Summary of Twenty Years of Opinion Research and Political Psychology

Transcription

1 Public Opinion and Climate Change Summary of Twenty Years of Opinion Research and Political Psychology

2 Today s Presentation 1. How has public opinion evolved 1. How has public opinion evolved 2. What dynamics drive and constrain public opinion 3. A new way forward?

3 Question: How has public opinion evolved over the last two decades? Answer: Not very much.

4 Strong Majorities of Americans Have Agreed that Global Warming Was Occurring Since At Least the Mid-90 s

5 Steady Belief in Global Warming 06-07

6 When will global warming occur? No Opinion

7 Strong Majorities Of Americans Have Accepted That Global Warming Is Anthropogenic Since At Least The Mid-90 s

8 Cause of Global Warming Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

9 Data On Acceptance Of Scientific Consensus Is Mixed

10 Acceptance of Scientific Consensus Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

11 Acceptance of Scientific Consensus Ohio State University Survey Research Unit Global Warming Survey [September, 1997], survey of 688 Americans, MoE ±4%

12 But Appears To Have Little Impact On Acceptance That Global Warming Is Occurring Or Support For Action

13 Support For Government Action 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 72% 68% 70% 66% Associated Press/Media General Poll [1989 and 1990], survey of 1000 Americans, MoE ±3%. Ohio State University Survey Research Unit Global Warming Survey [September, 1997], survey of 688 Americans, MoE ±4% Ipsos-Reid Survey of Canadians and Americans [April, 2005], survey of 1000 Americans, MoE ±3%

14 However Concern About Global Warming And Support For Action Is Broad But Not Deep

15 Worry About Global Warming A Great Deal 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 35% 30% 35% 24% 28% 34% 40% 33% 29% 28% 26% 36% 41% 37% 35% 20% 10% 0% Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

16 Consider Global Warming A Serious Personal Threat 100% 90% 80% 25% 31% 33% 35% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 69% 66% 65% 62% Yes No Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

17 Global Warming Will Pose A Serious Threat To You In Your Lifetime Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

18 Ranking of Global Warming as Important Issue Percentage saying global warming is "very important" or that it should be a top priority" Overall 16 Republicans 12 Democrats Independents Question: As I name some issues that are in the news these days, please tell me how important the issue is to you personally. Is global warming an issue that is very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important to you? Question: I d like to ask you some questions about priorities for President Bush and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think the item that I read [Dealing with global warming] should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done? Pew Charitable Trusts, , Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Telephone survey of 1,128Americans, MoE ±3% (±4% split samples).

19 Ranking of Global Warming as Important Issue Issue Ranking, Pew, January 2009, by percentage of those saying issue is top priority Republicans Democrats Independents 1 Strengthening nation s economy 83 Improving the job situation 89 Strengthening nation s economy 85 2 Defending US against terrorism 79 Strengthening nation s economy 88 Defending US against terrorism 81 3 Improving the job situation 72 Reducing health care costs 71 Improving the job situation 80 4 Strengthening the military 64 Defending US against terrorism 71 Securing Social Security 62 5 Securing Social Security 60 Improving educational system 71 Securing Medicare 61 6 Dealing with energy problems 51 Securing Social Security 66 Dealing with energy problems 61 7 Reducing budget deficit 51 Providing insurance to uninsured 66 Improving educational system 59 8 Dealing with moral breakdown 50 Dealing with energy problems 66 Reducing budget deficit 57 9 Securing Medicare 48 Securing Medicare 65 Reducing health care costs Dealing with illegal immigration 46 Dealing with problems of poor 62 Providing insurance to uninsured Improving educational system 46 Protecting the environment 54 Dealing with problems of poor Reducing health care costs 45 Reducing budget deficit 52 Reducing crime Reducing crime 41 Reducing middle class taxes 48 Reducing middle class taxes Reducing influence of lobbyists 37 Reducing crime 47 Dealing with illegal immigration Dealing with problems of poor 34 Dealing with moral breakdown 46 Reducing influence of lobbyists Reducing middle class taxes 31 Dealing with global warming 45 Protecting the environment Dealing with global trade 28 Strengthening the military 38 Strengthening the military Providing insurance to uninsured 28 Dealing with illegal immigration 34 Dealing with moral breakdown Protecting the environment 20 Dealing with global trade 33 Dealing with global trade Dealing with global warming 16 Reducing influence of lobbyists 30 Dealing with global warming 25 Pew Charitable Trusts, Jan , Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Telephone survey of 1,128Americans, MoE ±3% (±4% split samples).

20 Ranking of Global Warming as Important Issue Pew Charitable Trusts, Jan 7-11, 2009, Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Telephone survey of 1,503 Americans, MoE ±3% (±4% split samples).

21 Ranking of Global Warming as Important Issue Pew Charitable Trusts, Jan 7-11, 2009, Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Telephone survey of 1,503 Americans, MoE ±3% (±4% split samples).

22 Policy Preferences Regulate CO 2 60% 50% 40% 50% Question: How much do you support or oppose the following policy? 30% 20% 30% 13% Regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant. 10% 7% 0% Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Yale Project on Climate Change and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, 2008, survey of 2,164 American adults, MoE ±2%.

23 Policy Preferences 60% Sign international treaty to cut emissions 50% 40% 44% Question: How much do you support or oppose the following policy? 30% 20% 25% 19% 13% Sign an international treaty that requires the United States to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide 90% by the year % 0% Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Yale Project on Climate Change and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, 2008, survey of 2,164 American adults, MoE ±2%.

24 Policy Preferences 60% Create national carbon market Question: How much do you support or oppose the following policy? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11% 42% 24% 23% Create a new national market that allows companies to buy and sell the right to emit the greenhouse gases said to cause global warming. The federal government would set a national cap on emissions. Each company would then purchase the right to emit a portion of this total amount. If a company then emitted more than its portion, it would have to buy more emission rights from other companies or pay large fines.. Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Yale Project on Climate Change and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, 2008, survey of 2,164 American adults, MoE ±2%.

25 So What Has Changed?

26 Partisan Polarization Has Grown

27 Partisans Diverge On Whether Effects Have Already Begun Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

28 Partisans Diverge On Whether Seriousness Is Exaggerated Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

29 Partisans Diverge On Whether Global Warming Is Serious Issue ( 06)/Top Priority ( 07-09) 60% 2006 Question: As I name some issues that are in the news these days, please tell me 50% 56% how important the issue is to you 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 23% 23% 48% 47% 12% Democrat 45% Republican 16% personally. Is global warming an issue that is very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important to you? Question: I d like to ask you some questions about priorities for President Bush and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think the item that I read [Dealing with global warming] should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done? Pew Charitable Trusts, , Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Telephone survey of 1,000 Americans, error plus or minus 3 percent.

30 Global Warming/Environment Concern Rise and Fall Inversely To Concern About Economy

31 Top Issue Priority: Pew Charitable Trusts, Jan 7-11, 2009, Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Telephone survey of 1,503 Americans, MoE ±3% (±4% split samples).

32 2009: Economic Growth Surpasses Environmental Protection For First Time In 25 Years Gallup Poll, , Telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

33 Environmental Protection Vs. Economic Growth 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36% 52% 58% 33% Stimulating The Economy Protecting The Environment Both Spring-07 Jan-09 ABC News/Planet Green/Stanford University poll was conducted by telephone July 23-28, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults.

34 Increasingly Dire And Apocalyptic Warnings May Be Driving Rising Public Skepticism

35 Increasing perceptions of exaggeration on global warming Gallup Poll, , Telephone survey of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

36 The Birth Of An Issue Public

37 Issue Public Issue publics are groups of people who pay attention to one particular issue. They are well informed about the issue(s) and also have a very strong opinion on it/them. They tend to know more about politics than the average person, and, therefore, exert more influence, because these people care so deeply about their cause(s) that they donate much time and money.

38 Growth of Global Warming Issue Public: ABC News/Time/Stanford University poll was conducted by telephone March 9-14, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults.

39 Question: What Are The Dynamics That Drive And Constrain Public Opinion About Climate Change? Answer: Political Psychology And Political Economy

40 global warming attitude formation model Economy Political Political Psychology

41 Political Psychology High Threat Salience High System Justific cation Strong Opposition to Climate Change Action Strong Support for Climate Change Action Low System Justification Low Threat Salience

42 The Psychology of Risk Humans predisposed to fear: 1. Threats from evolutionary past (e.g., snakes, murderers). 2. Threats we cannot control (e.g., airplanes not cars). 3. Immediate not distant threats (e.g., youth don t fear effects of smoking). 4. Easily visualizable and memorable threats. 5. Immoral threats (e.g., terrorists not lightning). Source: Myers, David G Intuition: Its Powers and Perils. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

43 Environmental Priorities Environmental priorities: Percentage who care a "great deal" Pollution of drinking water Air pollution Loss of tropical rain forests Global warming Gallup Poll, , Telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

44 The rising unpopularity of George W. Bush and the Iraq war may help explain increased concern with global warming in Canada, and larger issue public in the U.S. Bush turned global warming into a moral threat. With Bush gone, who will personify threat?

45 System justification Pricing discourse and calls to sacrifice may trigger economic system justification. Three experiments by NYU social psychologist John Jost finds that system justification explains much of partisan difference. I can tell you, our grandchildren will laugh at those who predicted global warming. We ll be in global cooling by then, if the Lord hasn t returned. I don t believe a moment of it. The whole thing is created to destroy America s free enterprise system and our economic stability. Rev. Jerry Falwell, 2002 Source: System Justification and the Denial of Global Warming, Irina Feygina and John T. Jost, Rachel E. Goldsmith, in publication, 2009

46 The truth about the climate crisis is an inconvenient one that means we are going to have to change the way we live our lives. Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth

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48 Political Economy High Price Sensitivity Low Economic Sensit tivity High Tolerance for Carbon Pricing Low Tolerance for Carbon Pricing High Economic Sensitivity Low Price Sensitivity

49 Price Sensitivity and Cap and Trade ABC News/Planet Green/Stanford University poll was conducted by telephone July 23-28, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults.

50 Concern about Energy Prices 60% Percentage who worry a great deal about energy prices 50% 40% 30% 35% 39% 48% 43% 20% 27% 10% 0% -10% Gallup Poll, , telephone surveys of 1,000 Americans, MoE ±3%.

51 Hardship from Energy Prices 90% Percentage saying energy prices have caused financial hardship 80% 70% 60% 50% 77% 70% 67% % 53% 54% 48% 40% 30% Dec-00 Apr-01 Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 ABC News/Planet Green/Stanford University poll, July 23-28, N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3%

52 Ways to Reduce Global Warming

53 A New Way Forward?

54 Clean Energy Investment, Emissions Reductions, Tax Shift EMC Research for Nathan Cummings Foundation, September 2007, telephone survey of 1517 Americans, MoE ±4%.

55 Support For Major Climate & Energy Policy Initiatives Before arguments After arguments Cap and Trade "Sky Trust" Apollo EMC Research for Nathan Cummings Foundation, September 2007, telephone survey of 1517 Americans, MoE ±4%.

56 EMC Research for Nathan Cummings Foundation, September 2007, telephone survey of 1517 Americans, MoE ±4%.

57 Support for Long-Term Investment Few understand difference between stimulus and normal spending. Most concerned with federal spending that creates decent jobs and infrastructure investments, defined broadly, that benefit America in the long term. Voters more concerned that investments have long-term lasting benefits than short-term ones. Priorities appear to be (in order): infrastructure, clean energy, health care, and education.

58 Support For Higher Spending And Higher Deficits Now I m going to read a number of federal programs where the government might increase spending that would result in higher deficits. For each, please rate your support or opposition to increased spending using a scale between 1 and 10, where 1 means you strongly oppose more federal spending and 10 means you strongly support more federal spending, even if that results in higher deficits Don't know education 13% 16% 23% 47% 1% student loans 12% 24% 25% 39% 0% border security 20% 21% 21% 38% 1% clean energy 15% 21% 29% 35% 1% health-care 19% 25% 22% 33% 1% counterterrorism 19% 29% 22% 29% 1% unemployment benefits 24% 27% 25% 24% 1% highways, mass transit 20% 33% 28% 18% 1% high speed internet 43% 27% 16% 13% 1% American Environics and Breakthrough Institute, Fiscal Responsibility Project, March 2009

59 Historical examples generate high levels of support for spending World War II Example Let me read you another example from the past. In order to massively increase production of munitions, tanks, ships, and planes, the federal government during World War II ran very large deficits, and spent much of the money helping manufacturers modernize factories and create new industries for the American economy. The amount of federal spending during that period was about forty percent of the entire nation s economy. Thinking about how this history might be relevant today, do you support or oppose increased government spending and deficits today to modernize factories and create new high-tech and clean energy industries for the American economy? (Is that strongly support/oppose, or somewhat support/oppose?) American Environics and Breakthrough Institute, Fiscal Responsibility Project, March 2009

60 Historical examples generate high levels of support for spending 1950s s Example Let me read you another example from the past. After World War II in the 1950s and 1960s, the federal government continued to spend large amounts of money, and often ran budget deficits. This money was spent to build the interstate highway system, strengthen public education, and develop technologies that would lead to personal computers and the Internet. The amount of federal spending during that period was about twenty percent of the entire nation s economy. Thinking about how this history might be relevant today, do you support or oppose increased government spending and deficits today to build highways, strengthen public education and develop new technologies? (Is that strongly support/oppose, or somewhat support/oppose?) American Environics and Breakthrough Institute, Fiscal Responsibility Project, March 2009