STUDENT NAME. Number: STUDENT NUMBER Major: International Studies, Kanazawa University Supervisor: Dr. Senan Fox Date: _

Transcription

1 Peace Talks between the Taliban and the US, Afghan, and Pakistani governments An Investigation of the Obstacles to Improved Relations, and of the Prospects for Peace? STUDENT NAME Number: STUDENT NUMBER Date: _

2 Contents Abstract 1 Introduction 5 Chapter 1: Background 7 Chapter 2: US attitudes towards the peace talks 12 Chapter 3: Islamabad and the Taliban 17 Chapter 4: Kabul and the Afghan Taliban 25 Chapter 5: The Taliban s factions and structure 31 Chapter 6: Success and Challenges In Relations to the Peace Talks 35 Conclusion 38 Bibliography 43 日本語概要 49

3 Thesis Topic: Peace Talks between the Taliban and the US, Afghan and Pakistani governments An Investigation of the Obstacles to Improved Relations, and of the Prospects for Peace? Keywords: Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda, Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Pakistan, Taliban, Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP), terrorism, the USA Abstract This thesis will investigate the obstacles to improved relations between the Taliban and the US, Afghan, and Pakistani 1 governments, and as well as the prospects for peace between these groups. The research starts from the 21 st of May 2012 until the present day. The research starts from the date of the Chicago Summit Declaration on Afghanistan, 2 when the NATO Heads of State and Government of Afghanistan and Nations set out a plan called the Transformation Decade beyond 2014 for Afghanistan. This plan remarked that the transition of powers in Afghanistan would end at the end of This thesis will attempt to address the question of why Afghanistan and Pakistan have failed to agree on a peace treaty with the Taliban. Firstly, this thesis will discuss 1 See also the Peace Process Roadmap to Or (Accessed on 27/11/2014) Or (Accessed on 27/11/2014) 2 NATO, Chicago Summit Declaration on Afghanistan, 21 May

4 the origins of the Taliban and refer to the background to the present situation, where peace talks have come to a deadlock due to the lack of an agreed blueprint for the resolution of their disagreements. Next, this research will investigate four key factors, which play a vital role in influencing peace talks with the Taliban. These factors include a) US attitudes towards the peace process, b) the relationship between Islamabad and the Pakistani Taliban ( Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP)), c) political conflict and tensions between Kabul and the Afghan Taliban, and d) the existence of factions inside the Taliban. The research will examine the successes and the challenges of peace talks until the present day. The research will use a variety of sources, for example primary and secondary sources such as diplomatic documents, documents from international organizations and governments, journal articles, textbooks, and news articles, in order to analyse the influence of each factor. Following this, the thesis will, based on the research s findings, investigate whether there is a possibility of reaching a peace agreement or a ceasefire in the region, and discuss proposals for peaceful relations. 2

5 Map National Geographic Education, Afghanistan and Pakistan Ethnic Groups, (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 3

6 Map Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection - Pakistan Maps, Pakistan (Administrative Divisions) 2010, The University of Texas at Austin, (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 4

7 Introduction The thesis consists of seven chapters. In Chapter One, the thesis will discuss the historical background with regards to the Taliban, the US, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. This chapter will describe why peace talks with the Taliban came about. In Chapter Two, this research will examine what is arguably the most important factor in negotiations between the Taliban and Afghanistan and Pakistan i.e. the role of the US and its support for the peace process. Then, in Chapter Three, Pakistan s role will be investigated because the country s territory includes a key tribal area (the Federally Administered Tribal Area) and a Taliban powerbase, which Islamabad has struggled to control. Diplomatic relations between Pakistan and foreign countries such as the US in relation to the Taliban have also often been quite difficult. Chapter Four will examine relations between the Afghan Taliban 5 and Kabul as well as the public opinion in Afghanistan. It compares each argument made by the Taliban and the government in terms of the legitimacy of future governance in the country. In 2016 the US will withdraw from Afghanistan, and the future of the country is still unclear. Thus, this chapter will analyse the present situation. Also Chapter Five will examine the various factions within the Taliban. Every faction has each own goals despite being part of a large organization, and this chapter will examine whether the Taliban is fragmented or not. The relationship between these factions and the progress of the peace process will be investigated. After that, Chapter Six will summarize the successes and challenges of 5 This research will discuss the differences between the Afghan Taliban and other groups in Chapter 1. 5

8 the peace talks with the Taliban. Let us examine the possibility of an agreement with the Taliban, and, what the obstacles to peace are. In Chapter Seven, in the conclusion, following these analyses, this chapter will investigate the possibility of a peaceful relationship with the Taliban. The thesis will look at the ways that the Afghan, Pakistani, and the US governments, as well as the international community, might be able to improve relations with the Taliban. Examples might include strategies for advancing the peace talks between and within the relevant groups, or at least coordinating their activities in ways least likely to create conflict. 6

9 Chapter 1: Background Who are the Taliban? The word Taliban 6 is used in different contexts in many different sources but each definition is ambiguous, so in this research, it will define and distinguish between the Afghan Taliban and Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The Afghan Taliban is the main stream of the Taliban that is an enemy of the Afghan government, and foreign troops in Afghanistan, and emerged in 1994 from earlier conflicts. The TTP, which is officially an enemy of the Pakistani government, emerged from a Pakistani Taliban movement, which first developed around 2004, 7 when Islamabad first discovered the presence of terrorist groups inside Pakistan. The TTP emerged in Pakistan in December 2007 and was led by Baitullah Mehsud, who headed a loosely connected militant group known as the Pakistani Taliban from 2007 until his death by a US drone strike in August After Baitullah s death, the TTP was led by Hakimullah Mehsud, who became the leader of the Pakistani Taliban from August 2009 until his death by a US drone strike on November 1 st The TTP has grown stronger in recent years. 8 6 The word Taliban means students in Arabic. According to Antony Best, The term was used to originally refer to the fundamentalist Muslim militia of Pashtun Afghans and Pakistanis that overthrew the Afghan ethnic coalition government of Ahmad Shah Masood in (Best ed. et al. 2008, p. 467) 7 Abbas, Hassan (January 2008), A profile of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, CTC Sentinel, vol. 1, issue 2, p BBC News (01/11/2013), Who are the Taliban?. (Accessed on 02/12/2014) 7

10 Historical background ( ) From 1979 to 1989, the Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan in order to support a communist government. Shortly after the Soviet invasion in December 1979, a proxy war 9 began in the context of the Cold War and lasted from December 1979 until February This conflict broke out between the Soviet forces and the mujahedeen. 10 The US, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia supported the mujahedeen. According to Peter Calvocoressi, 11 despite the UN issued annual pleas for a ceasefire from 1982, Pakistan and the United States were unco-operative so long as the mujaheddin appeared to have a good chance of overthrowing the communist regime in Kabul, and the Reagan administration was also reluctant to forgo the advantages of exploiting the discomfiture which Moscow had brought upon itself by invading. 12 After the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in , a civil war broke out between various militant groups in the period from 1989 until During the civil war, the Taliban 14 seized control of Kabul in 1996 and remained in power until December December 2001 was the time that US-led forces invaded the country in response to the Taliban s links to the terrorists, al-qaeda, which carried out the September 11 th 2001 ( 9/11 ) attacks in the US. The Taliban government sheltered and 9 Proxy war is a war instigated by a major power which does not itself becomes involved. (Oxford Dictionaries). In this context, the US and the Soviet Union were major powers and the proxy war was over Afghanistan. 10 Mujahedeen means Muslim guerrillas who fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan in the period from 1979 to 1989 (Best ed. et al. 2008, p.467). 11 Peter Calvocoressi is a distinguished figure in the field of International Relations. During the Second World War he worked in Ultra intelligence at Bletchley Park and later attended the Nuremberg trials. 12 Calvocoressi (2008), p Almost all of the militant groups emerged from the mujahedeen in the Afghan war. 14 In this chapter, Taliban means the Afghan Taliban. As the TTP (the Pakistani Taliban) is a faction of the Taliban, it will discuss this in Chapters 3 and 5. 8

11 supported al-qaeda inside Afghanistan and the border tribal areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan (in particular the FATA region). After 9/11, with the co-operation of the government in Islamabad, Pakistan was regarded by the Bush administration (in office from January 20 th 2001 until January 20 th 2009) as being on the frontline in the war on terror. 15 As a result, the US and Pakistani governments co-operated in searching for terrorist groups in the border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pakistani government, however, maintains close links with the Taliban in order to keep open the energy and trade routes to neighbouring countries to the west of Pakistan instead of India, which is the largest market in South Asia. The Pakistani intelligence organization, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has had a secret link with the Taliban since they emerged in the 1990s. 16 Pakistan thought that the foreign policy had to be changed from supporting the Taliban to co-operating with the US because it was better to co-operate with international forces than to support the suspected terrorists: the Taliban. If Islamabad refused a request from the US President Bush after 9/11 in 2001, Pakistan would be condemned as a state sponsor of terrorism. However, the Pakistani army had not started to attack the FATA area, which is a base for the terrorist groups, until March After 9/11, inside the Pakistani government there was a struggle between pro-western groups and groups that opposed the war on terror. 17 Consequently, 15 The war on terror is a term used to describe the American-led global counterterrorism campaign launched in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11 th This thesis will refer to the details about the secret link between the ISI and the Taliban in Chapter Yamane, So (2012), Social Transformation in Pakistan in the War on Terrorism, Contemporary India, Vol. 2, p.50. 9

12 Islamabad and the Taliban had been friendly until 9/11, then they officially became an enemies of one another. The Taliban today (after the US-led invasion in 2001) On October 7 th, 2001, US-led military forces invaded Afghanistan. By the first week of December 2001, the Taliban regime had collapsed. 18 The US major combat operation in Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban regime and al-qaeda began on October 7 th, It continued until May 1 st, 2003, when then-secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld announced an end to major combat operations. The George W. Bush administration considered that they should not repeat a past failure in Afghanistan i.e. when the US departure from the region after the 1989 Soviet withdrawal caused chaos in Afghanistan. However, the US has been constrained by insurgents until December 2014, because Taliban members are thought to be taking refuge in Pakistan, from where they reorganized the Taliban. As a result, US efforts to reduce the number of Taliban attacks have been very difficult. High-profile attacks still occur, for example, the presidential election in 2009 and parliamentary polls in 2010 were marred by Taliban violence. Most notably, a relative of President Karzai Ahmad Wali Karzai, who was the governor of Kandahar, was killed during the Taliban campaign against prominent figures in July The worst attack on civilians was in January 2014, when 21 civilians (including 18 BBC News (01/11/2013), Who are the Taliban?. 10

13 13 foreigners) 19 were killed in a Taliban suicide squad attack on a restaurant in Kabul s diplomatic quarter. 20 Foreign troops and the Afghan National Army 21 are still attacked by roadside bombs. As the US and foreign countries would not like to continue this war or to increase the foreign death toll, they 1) have to talk to establish a ceasefire with the Taliban, which is the most influential opponent, and 2) have to withdraw from Afghanistan. The latter, the plan of withdrawal, is in progress. NATO-led ISAF completed its operations at the end of 2014 and the US will commence a full-scale withdrawal at the end of However, the former objective, peace talks with the Taliban, is still inconclusive. 19 New York Times (18/01/2014), Deadly Attack at Kabul Restaurant Hints at Changing Climate for Foreigners. (Accessed on 04/07/2014) 20 BBC News (26/10/2014), Afghanistan Profile. (Accessed on 04/07/2014) 21 Afghan National Army is a name of Afghanistan forces under the Minister of Defence and General Staff. See also Afghanistan National Army (ANA) 22 BBC News (27/05/2014), US to keep 9,800 Afghanistan troops after (Accessed on 29/05/2014) 11

14 Chapter 2: US attitudes towards the peace talks Before discussing US attitudes towards the peace talks, this section will identify US national interests vis-à-vis Afghanistan. According to Stephan D. Biddle, 23 the US has two vital strategic interests in Afghanistan: the first is that Afghanistan not become a base for militants to attack the West and the second is that it not become a base for destabilizing the country s neighbours. 24 The first interest means the US should attempt to reduce the threat of terrorist attacks and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven that could enhance a terrorist group s abilities to attack, such as Al-Qaeda. 25 The second interest is to stabilize the country and to prevent radical extremists from becoming more powerful in Central Asia and the Middle East. According to a Gallup poll, 26 in terms of public opinion in the US, 93 per cent of the population justified and supported the US military intervention in Afghanistan in 2002, not long after the September 11 th attacks in The number of supporters, however, has declined since then, and as of February 2014, only 49 per cent approve of the US presence in Afghanistan. The US public therefore seeks the withdrawal of US forces as 23 Stephen D. Biddle is adjunct senior fellow for defence policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. 24 Biddle, Stephen D. (September/October 2013), Ending the War in Afghanistan: How to Avoid Failure on the Instalment Plan, Foreign Affairs. (Accessed on 03/07/2014) 25 Report of the Afghanistan study group (2010), America s Interests, A New Way Forward: Rethinking the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, p.4. (Accessed on 03/07/2014) 26 Gallup Historical Trends, Afghanistan. (Accessed on 03/07/2014) 12

15 soon as possible. 27 The reason for this change in opinion is that the Afghan war (since the October 2001 US-led invasion) 28 has become a protracted war. The shift in US public opinion also follows in the wake of bad news from the battlefield, including news about American troops who have killed Afghan civilians or about the number of US military deaths. 29 US citizens were somewhat satisfied with the result of the US attack on and killing of Osama Bin Laden, the head of al-qaeda, in May 2011, and that the US had also succeeded in wiping out al-qaeda in Afghanistan. However, US troops are still stationed in Afghanistan and have taken heavy casualties. Their presence has also cost the US a huge amount of money. In terms of US foreign policy towards terrorist groups including al-qaeda and the Taliban, public opinion has slightly changed due to changes within the US government. In this situation, the Obama administration (in office from January 20 th 2009 until the present day) follows the central goals of US foreign and defence policy: to try and secure the safety and prosperity of the American people, and to set a timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan. Moreover, to ensure peace in Central Asia, the US keeps their troops in Afghanistan to train the Afghan army in order to deter other forces. 30 Therefore it is clear that there are two vital 27 This article also referred to 60% of American thought that Afghan war is not worth fighting in April Washington Post (21/03/2012), Afghan people once supported war, but do they now?. /2012/03/07/gIQAf0gQSS_blog.html (Accessed on 20/12/2014) 28 BBC News (26/10/2014), Afghanistan Profile. (Accessed on 04/07/2014) 29 New York Times (26/03/2012), Support in U.S. for Afghan War Drops Sharply, Poll Finds.. _r=1& (Accessed on 23/07/2014) 30 Report of the Afghanistan study group, America s Interests, A New Way Forward: Rethinking the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, p.4. 13

16 interests in Afghanistan: to reduce the threat of successful terrorist attacks and to prevent the conflict from spreading in Central Asia. 31 US diplomatic policy towards Pakistan Next, in order to examine US attitudes towards peace talks with the Taliban, it is important to look at the US approach to another influential actor: Pakistan. Pakistan has an interest in Afghanistan and a problem related to Taliban groups inside Pakistan territory. 32 The Pakistani government and US share a common interest in maintaining peace and stability in South Asia, but the two countries often experience strained relations 33 because of accidents which often relate to the killing of Pakistan soldiers. One accident was when NATO aircraft killed 25 soldiers in air strikes, 34 or suspicion of interference in investigations about terrorist activities. 35 These incidents often relate to a US drone strikes, which aimed to attack the Taliban or al-qaeda members but accidentally bombed civilians in Pakistan. Amnesty International have expressed concern about US drone strikes that have killed many civilians. 36 Also, Pakistan 31 Ibid. p More details about Pakistan will be explained in Chapter U.S. Department of State: Diplomacy in Action (16/08/2013), U.S. Relations With Pakistan, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs: Fact Sheet. (Accessed on 24/07/2014) 34 New York Times (26/11/2011), Tensions Flare Between U.S. and Pakistan After Strike. ted=all&_r=0 (Accessed on 15/08/2014) 35 Despite being aware of these activities of the groups, Pakistan did not offer information to NATO. BBC news, (01/02/ 2012), Pakistan helping Afghan Taliban- Nato. (Accessed on 15/09/2014) 36 Amnesty International (2013) Will I be next? US drone strikes in Pakistan, pp en.pdf (Accessed on 16/08/2014) 14

17 resented the US intrusion into its territory when an American assault team carried out the assassination of Osama bin Laden. 37 A suspected link between terrorist groups and the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) also affects the strained relations between the US and the Pakistani governments. ISI does not always share intelligence with the US and it sheltered Osama Bin-Laden, and besides, the ISI is alleged to be using the Taliban as a militant group against the US in Afghanistan in order to construct a Pakistan-friendly state. 38 Accordingly, the US and Pakistan are in a struggle to improve bilateral relations 39 and these difficulties have become an obstacle for the US in maintaining peace in Central Asia and in discussing peace talks with the Taliban. Progress, from 2001 to the present day Lastly, this section examines the progress of US efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Following the Bush administration s war on terror policy, the US decided to try to dismantle local security structures and to try to build a strong, democratic Afghan central government and to develop the Afghan economy. 40 The United Nations, international institutions, and US partners supported this effort. In late 2009, the Obama administration s strategy review declared that the US was sending 30,000 additional US 37 The Guardian (10/05/2011), Osama bin Laden raid team was prepared to fight Pakistani forces. (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 38 New York Times (19/03/2014), What Pakistan Knew About Bin Laden. (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 39 Hassan, Kiran (23/11/2013), US Pakistan relations to 2014 and beyond, IISS voices. voices/blogsections/iiss-voices e35/december c70/pakistan-us-25f9 (Accessed on 24/07/2014) 40 Katzman, Kenneth (04/03/2014), Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, p

18 forces to reverse the Taliban s momentum 41 and to strengthen the capacity of Afghanistan s security forces and government. However, the US could not defeat the Taliban completely in Afghanistan. As the example in Chapter 1 showed, attacks by Taliban groups are continuing to the present day. This may indicate that there are the limits to the war on terror. The terrorist groups can continue radical activities if they have funding, human resources, and the will to do so. The American armed responses alone cannot terminate the seemingly endless war with the Taliban. Due to the limitations of armed attacks, which only bring about more conflict, and the need to reform Afghan society by compromising with radical groups, the US decided to talk with the Taliban and to plan the withdrawal of US military forces. For example, the US and the Taliban agreed to open a direct negotiation office in Qatar in January 2012, 42 and an office in Doha, Qatar s capital was opened on 18 June, However, the office was closed only a month later because in the opening ceremony, the Taliban declared the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan during the raising of the Taliban flag. It was the previous name of Afghanistan during the period of Taliban rule. Karzai and the Taliban members clashed over the issue and the talks were stopped without any solution. To date, the US has promoted the process of military withdrawal but without any substantive progress in peace talks with the Taliban. 41 ibid, p New York Times (28/01/2012), Former Taliban Officials Say U.S. Talks Started. 0 (Accessed on 30/07/2014) 43 The content of the Doha office talks will be discussed in Chapter 4. 16

19 Chapter 3: Islamabad and the Taliban Chapter 3 will discuss the Taliban s relations with Pakistan as one of the obstacles to peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan is a neighbouring country of Afghanistan (to its east) and it has strong interests in Afghanistan as referred to above: in order to keep open the energy and trade routes to neighbouring countries to the west of Pakistan while minimising the power of India in the area, which has increased its influence in Afghanistan recently. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is a key factor in relations with the Afghan Taliban. The Taliban emerged in 1994 after the Soviet occupation ( ) and the Cold War era in Afghanistan. There were many tribes and ethnic groups and mistrust between each group increased as a result of the war. The Taliban consists of Pashtun tribes, and was supported by the ISI during the war period until From 1994 to 2001, when there was a period of struggle in which the Taliban fought to be in power in Kabul, ISI supported them with money, weapons, and advisers in order to win the war inside Afghanistan 44 and to increase the influence of Pakistan in the region. 45 Throughout this period, the Taliban and the Pakistan government co-operation based on nationalism was conducted. 46 After the September 11 attacks, Pakistan became a coalition partner in the US s 44 Hanni, Adrian & Hegi, Lukas (02/04/2013), The Pakistani Godfather: The Inter-Services Intelligence and the Afghan Taliban , Small Wars Journal, p Yamane, So (2012), Social Transformation in Pakistan in the War on Terrorism, Contemporary India, Vol. 2, p (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 46 ibid. p

20 war on terror, but the ISI continued supporting the militant group. In June 2006, NATO, the Afghan executive, and US made a joint report about ISI Taliban relations. As the report stated, ISI operatives reportedly pay a significant number of Taliban living/operating in both Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight. [...] A large number of those fighting are doing so under duress as a result of pressure from ISI [...] 47 However, Pakistan s so-called double game 48 has continued. In 2012, a NATO report concluded that ISI provided sanctuary, training camps, expertise and help with funding to the Taliban. 49 Although ISI could control the Afghan Taliban, the Afghan Taliban provides some assistance to, and is allied with the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), who attacks the Pakistani government. 50 According to Naeem Ahmed, who is an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations, at the University of Karachi in Pakistan, the Pakistan s Military categorizes many insurgent groups as two types: good / bad Taliban. 51 The TTP is categorized bad Taliban, however, the Afghan Taliban is good Taliban. 52 The bad Taliban groups commit terrorism inside Pakistan towards the government or civilians, and then the good Taliban groups help to protect Pakistan s geo-strategic interests in Afghanistan and India. 53 The Pakistani government divides the Taliban into two types, and launched military operations only 47 Special Security Initiative of the Policy Action Group (as cited in Hanni and Hegi, 2013, p. 8). 48 Hanni & Hegi (2013), p Riedel, Bruce (24/08/2013), Pakistan, Taliban and the Afghan Quagmire, Brookings Institution. 50 ibid. 51 Ahmed, Naeem (January 2014), Pakistan s Counter-terrorism strategy and its Implications for domestic, regional and international security, Fondation Maison des sciences de l homme, p ibid, p ibid, p

21 against bad Taliban despite helping the good Taliban as a means to achieve its foreign policy objectives. In fact, thus Pakistan faces a contradictory situation: on the one hand the Pakistani government support the Taliban group for the purposes of Pakistan s foreign interest, and on the other hand the rise of the Taliban could threaten the stability of Pakistan. However, there has been a positive sign development with in Pakistan politics. In February 2013, the Afghan and Pakistani governments agreed to work together for peace talks in Afghan after being persuaded to do so by the British government. 54 This is a starting point of slowly improving relations between the Afghan and Pakistani governments 55 in terms of a peace process in Afghanistan, after the High Peace Council (HPC) 56 issued the Peace Process Road Map to 2015 in December Pakistani foreign policy changed towards the Afghan peace process. As stated by Frederic Grare, Pakistan has promoted a bilateral reconciliation process aimed at forging a power-sharing agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government. 58 By proceeding to these peace talks, the Pakistani government will be able to attain the 54 BBC News (04/02/2013), Afghanistan and Pakistan aim for peace in six months. (Accessed on 02/12/2014) 55 Lijn, Jair van der (08/05/2013), Afghanistan post-2014: Groping in the dark?, Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael Report, p (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 56 The High Peace Council (HPC) is the Afghan government body set up to lead peace efforts with the Taliban. Former President Hamid Karzai appointed HPC. Refer to BBC News (19/07/2014), Afghan President Karzai to boycott talks with Taliban. (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 57 The Diplomat (20/12/2012), Peace in Afghanistan: Will Pakistan Play Ball?. ay-ball/ (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 58 Grare, Frederic (February 2014), Afghanistan Post-2014: Scenarios and Consequences, The German Marshal Fund of United States, p (Accessed on 11/12/2014) 19

22 following an objective: promote a relatively friendly government in Kabul in order to diminish Indian influence there. 59 On 25 June 2014, the Government of Pakistan issued a statement entitled the Strategic Vision of Pakistan s Foreign Policy. This statement said that The first important foreign policy objective is to safeguard Pakistan s security and eliminate the growing culture of extremism, intolerance and violence from the [sic] society through concerted political and military strategies and a policy of non interference in the affairs of other countries. Henceforth, [the] top priority will be accorded to [the] country s own security rather than the agendas and priorities of other countries. 60 The Pakistani government will try to eliminate extremism and abandon the Taliban s militarily win in Afghanistan because Islamabad is aimed at increasing the influence of the Taliban in Afghanistan politics in order to achieve Pakistani interests. Even if Pakistan does not directly support the Taliban s military action in Afghan, nevertheless, the extent to which could control influence insurgent groups remains a problem. 59 ibid, p Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Pakistan (25/06/2014), Text of the Statement delivered by Adviser to the Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs in the Senate of Pakistan on 25 June 2014 on Strategic Vision of Pakistan s Foreign Policy. (Accessed on 19/11/2014) 20

23 Domestic problems Pakistan has a problem of domestic terrorism. The Afghan Taliban was originally supported by Pakistan to increase leverage in the region. As mentioned above, however, the Afghan Taliban supports the Pakistani Taliban, and the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) is becoming a threat to the Pakistani government. National military operations against the domestic militant groups inside Pakistan are not completely finished because these groups have reorganized themselves in a safe area in the FATA, 61 and the government cannot enter there to carry out military actions. Not only does the TTP exist, there are also other kinds of terrorist groups in Pakistan. According to Asley J, Tellis, who is a senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a January 2008 Congressional testimony, numerous Pakistan-related terrorist groups could be categorized into five types: Sectarian, Anti-Indian, Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, and the Pakistani Taliban. 62 The Pakistani Taliban is a coalition of extremist groups in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The group aims at replacing Pakistan with an Islamic state. In order to achieve this goal, the TTP declared jihad against the Pakistani state, seeks to control territory, enforces [sic] sharia, and fights [sic] NATO forces in Afghanistan. 63 They blew up Islamabad s Marriot Hotel in September 2008 and Peshawar s Continental Hotel in 2009, and a total of at least seventy people died in these incidents. According to the Council on Foreign 61 See Map 2, p Laub, Zachary (18/11/2013), Pakistan s New Generation of Terrorists, Council on Foreign Relations. (Accessed on 08/12/2014) 63 ibid. 21

24 Relations, In a September 2011 congressional testimony, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen referred to the Haqqani network (one of the Pakistani militant groups) as a strategic arm of Pakistani s Inter-Services Intelligence agency. 64 Therefore, Pakistan still has an influence in the Afghan peace talks with the Taliban. Pakistan works as the group s back supporter in order to protect Pakistani interests. Although Pakistan will use the militant groups as means of achieving their foreign policy, the government will confront the problem of to what extent they are able to control terrorist activities. In this section, it will investigate the public opinion in Pakistan about the present situation, especially, increasing domestic terrorism and Islamabad s policy towards eliminating extremism in Pakistan. According to Pew Research, in 2013, 98% of citizens felt threatened by terrorism; on the other hand, the number of people who feel threatened by Indian influence in Afghanistan (this is one of the most important foreign interests for the Pakistani government in relation to Afghanistan) was 59% Public opinion in Pakistan supports the government s policy, and they are more fearful of domestic terrorism than foreign policy issues. The public did also not support the Taliban generally, but there are some ethnic groups who support the Taliban: for example the Pashtun tribe. 20% of them support radical activities because the citizens 64 ibid. 65 Pew Research Global Attitudes Project (05/07/2013), On Eve of Elections, a Dismal Public Mood in Pakistan: Rising Concerns about the Taliban. (Accessed on 02/12/2014) 66 Of course, there is a gap between the regions. The area near the Kashmir region has a high rate of concerns about India. 22

25 misinterpret the Taliban due to the same ethnicity. 67 Almost all of the Taliban members are from the Pashtun tribes and the majority of Pashtun mainly live in FATA, so the Taliban remain active in FATA. These Pashtun people feel bonds based on Pashtun ethnicity and have shared characteristics with the Taliban, however, the Taliban (TTP) has attacked Pakistani people even if they are Pashtun people, and they recruit largely from Pashtun. 68 The Pashtun tribes are victims of domestic terrorism as much as other ethnic groups in Pakistan. The Taliban (TTP and Afghan Taliban) and other radical groups could use the FATA, as a powerbase because the conservative-minded residents there trust these groups and think that the Pakistani government is helpless in the FATA region. The Pakistani government s legal system does not hold in FATA and the area is still governed by law codes that date from the British Raj. 69 The Pakistani government has attempted to eliminate extremism from the state, and has started to co-operate with Afghanistan in order to progress peace talks between the Kabul and the Afghan Taliban. However, there is no effective treatment against the rise of domestic terrorism under the present conditions. The rise of domestic terrorism was caused by the military attacks in the tribal areas in order to meet the demand of war on terror by the US since 9/11. Thus, the Pakistani government should cease fire against the tribal areas with stop the US drone strikes. Since there is a bond between the radical 67 Kaltenthaler, Miller, Karl William, and Fair, C. Christine (2014), Ethnicity, Islam, and Pakistani Opinion toward the Pakistani Taliban, APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper, pp (Accessed on 26/11/2014) 68 ibid, pp ibid, p

26 group and Pashtun groups, the further military operations against tribal areas by the troops, the more hostility against Islamabad and Western countries from the insurgent groups. As well as the ceasefire against domestic insurgents, the ISI should stop funding towards the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan and Pakistani governments aim confidence building with the same goal that eliminates extremism from the regions. 24

27 Chapter 4: Kabul and the Afghan Taliban The Afghan Taliban and Afghan government are still in a struggle against one another. In this section, it summarizes the points of each side s argument and examines the progress of the talks. First, the Taliban argues in favour of constructing a state based on Sharia law, and of excluding foreign forces from their territory. The Afghan government, this means Karzai (Hamid Karzai had been in office December 7 th 2004 until September 29 th 2014) government, adopted a Western-backed policy. It relies on Western troops to secure domestic stability and to fight against terrorism. He never hoped to return to the days of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The government tried to start secret peace talks with the Taliban from 2008 to 2011, and Karzai set up a council for peace talks with the Taliban in The formation of the High Peace Council (HPC) seemed to become a first step in the peace talks. Nevertheless it could not lead to any significant agreement. Though the US also had met the Taliban to start peace talks before the Doha office opened in 2013, it has had no significant achievement. Under the present conditions, it is difficult to find an agreement in the peace talks between the Taliban and the US, Afghan, and Pakistani governments. However, the Afghan and Pakistani governments agreed to work together in peace talks in This agreement could be regard as a positive sign for the peace process in Afghanistan. As mentioned in Chapter 3, Pakistan seeks to increase their influence in Afghanistan, so they desire to participate in peace talks. In addition, the Taliban became willing to talk since the 25

28 declaration of the withdrawal plan of foreign forces in They started to reveal a change in attitude towards the talks, but still Kabul and the Taliban were not able to talk about a ceasefire and their future. On September 21 st, 2014, the political battle over the next leader of Afghanistan showed signs of resolution. Two candidates agreed to share power and to sign a bilateral security agreement with the US, which allowed American troops to remain in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of foreign troops at the end of Since the beginning of this presidential election (April 5, 2014), the Taliban have continued bombing attacks repeatedly on foreign forces and on Kabul forces in order to interrupt the election. The Afghan government and it citizens are fearful of the threat posed by this group. Several reasons for the conflict This part investigates why the Taliban did not agree to develop peace talks, and the reasons for the Taliban feeling hostile towards the present government. There is an ideological conflict between the Taliban and the present Afghan government. The Afghan government seeks to create a pro-western country with assistance from the US and the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). The government also pursues the creation of a non-religious (secular) state. Although virtually the entire population is Muslim, the separation of religion and politics is adopted, such as the president and parliamentary members being elected by citizens. The recent presidential 26

29 election in 2014 had a high voting turnout (about 50%) 70 when one considers the threat of Taliban attacks. 71 On the one hand the present Afghan government policies, and on the other the Taliban pursues strict Islamic law and tries to expel foreign troops. The Taliban is still attempting to topple the present Afghan government and to restore power to control Afghanistan as the Taliban had ruled it before. Ethnic conflict is also one of the reasons for delayed agreement between the government and the Taliban. Inside the government, there are factions from each ethnic group. They do not hope for the victory of the Taliban group, and each group expects to have their own view accepted as national policy. In Afghanistan, there are many kinds of ethnic groups. The main ethnic groups are Pashtun, 42 per cent, and the Taliban also consist of the Pashtun people. Besides this there are three other major ethnic groups: Tajik, Hazara, and Uzbek. In total, they make up 87 per cent of the population. Not all the factions leaders support the president; 72 and there is a risk of divisions within the Afghan government. The new President Ashraf Ghani (in office from September 29 th 2014 until the present day) and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah who shares power in the Afghan government. However they lack a cabinet because of the conflict between 70 This is defined as the percentage of the voting age population that actually voted, reported by International IDEA (05/10/2011), Voter turnout data for Afghanistan. (Accessed on 15/10/2014). 71 New York Times (05/04/2014), Afghan Turnout Is High as Voters Defy the Taliban. (Accessed on 15/10/2014) 72 Cordesman, Anthony H. (17/01/2012), Negotiating with the Taliban: Six Critical Conditions that Must Be Met to avoid Another Peace to End All Peace, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), pp

30 them. 73 In addition, as well as in Pakistan, some Afghan people (35%) have sympathy for armed opposition groups, namely, the Taliban. 74 The Pashtun have the largest following, with those expressing sympathy for this group at 42%. However, a lot of people have no sympathy for them (71% in urban areas, and 61% in rural areas). 75 One of the reasons for this antipathy is because the armed group has killed many innocent people and people hope to finish the war. However, this survey also shows that only a few number of people felt that the Taliban had bad intention (4%) or deprive people s freedom (3%). 76 A lot of people (74%) are aware of the government s attempts at reconciliation with the Taliban, and agree with this attempt in order to stabilize Afghan security. Insecurity is the biggest problem in the country according to the public opinion polls. Interestingly, according to polls, it does not matter whether it is a secular state or not. They would rather mix politics and religion (by means of consultation with religious leaders) than have a non-religious political system. It is showed higher rate in urban areas (71% should be mixed) than rural areas (55%). The Afghan people also recognize the efforts of the government s policy in terms of development. However, Afghan civilians have more familiarity with the Taliban than the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force). Once the ISAF victimized civilians, support for the ISAF 73 Newsweek (03/12/2014), Afghanistan Needs a Government- Fast. (Accessed on 07/01/2015) 74 The Asia Foundation (December 2013), AFGHANISTAN IN 2013: A Survey of the Afghan People, p (Accessed on 26/11/2014) 75 ibid, p ibid, pp

31 decreased sharply and this was associated with a marked increase in support for the Taliban. 77 Therefore, the Afghan government and international actors should be careful to deal with residents in order to avoid inadvertently encouraging support for the Taliban. Kabul seeks find agreement with the Taliban in order to achieve stability. The new president Ashraf Ghani showed his intention to allow insurgents to join the existing political system. According to Scott Smith, who is Director of the Afghanistan and Central Asia Program at the United States Institute of Peace, Ghani s peace rhetoric is based on protecting the rights enshrined in the current constitution, while accepting that the constitution allows space for the contestation of various political ideas. 78 This is different from the previous President Karzai, who often had failed to negotiate with the Taliban. Ghani actively demands that the Taliban change from am armed group to a political actor. Accordingly, the peace talks have a benefit for both the Afghan government and the public. Afghans hope to finish the war, and the government hopes to promote the reconstruction of the country without interruption by insurgents. However, ideological and ethnic differences remain within the government and the whole country. Moreover, it is need for the government that a strong people s confidence, in order to avoid 77 Lyall, Jason, Blair, Graeme, and Imai, Kosuke (06/01/2014), Afghan civilians are much more tolerant of harm from the Taliban than they are from ISAF, LSE American Politics and Policy, Blog Entry. (Accessed on 27/11/2014) 78 Smith, Scott (24/11/2014), New Prospects for a Peace Process in Afghanistan?, IPI Global Observatory. (Accessed on 27/11/2014) 29

32 separation from the government and international support. The Taliban could attract public sympathy, unless the people are satisfied with the government s work. In particular, insecurity, corruption, and unemployment, are the most important interests for civilians. It does not matter for civilians whether the government is secular-state or not, it is the achievements of the government that count most of all. 30

33 Chapter 5: The Taliban s factions and structure This chapter will examine the various Taliban factions and their objectives. It will assess how the Taliban factions impact on the peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. As stated before, there are two main Taliban groups related to the Afghan peace talks: the Afghan Taliban but the TTP (Pakistani Taliban). The Afghan Taliban is supported by Pakistan, and TTP is a threat to Pakistan. 79 They have different leaders; Mullah Omar who organizes the Afghan Taliban, and Mullah Fazlullah who organizes the TTP (he has been a successor of Hakimullah Mehsud since November 7, 2013). The TTP often seems to be connected to the Afghan Taliban because they both claimed Mullah Omar as a leader. 80 In fact, however, these two groups have different objectives. Moreover, TTP is an umbrella organization with as many as 40 militant groups, based in Pakistan s tribal area. Both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP use the FATA regions as a base and sanctuary. It is obvious that these groups assist in terms of offering each other as a sanctuary, training base, and funding, even if these groups are active as two distinct groups with different objectives. 81 Although, often many news agencies and scholars have doubt about the nature of the relationship, these groups have a similar objective in terms of establishing an Islamic state after they topple the present 79 On 16 th December 2014, a Pakistan Taliban attack on a school killed 141, including 132 children. See BBC News (16/12/2014), Pakistan Taliban: Peshawar school attack leaves 141 dead. (Accessed on 28/12/2014) 80 The News (16/04/2014), Mullah Omar wants TTP to end infighting, join spring offensive. ve (Accessed on 28/12/2014) 81 Weitz, Richard (2012), Afghan-Pakistan Border Rules: The U.S. Role, Eurasia Border Review, p. 2 (Accessed on 28/12/2014) 31

34 government. The Pakistani government would like to cut the relations between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP, but it is difficult without carrying out an appropriate military measure within the FATA. 82 Next, this chapter will examine the Afghan Taliban group s ideology and organization. The Afghan Taliban hopes to construct a state that follows a strict version of Islamic laws. Under the former Taliban regime ( ), Afghanistan experienced a difficult period. The Taliban did not permit human rights, especially women s rights, which United Nations and NGOs cannot ignore the crime. As an organization, it can be assessed by six components: the final goal, attack objectives, funding, support, human resources, and abilities. The Afghan Taliban s final goal is to construct an Islamic state in Afghanistan, and they have attacked foreign troops and the Afghan army and police. They have also made huge profits from opium production in Afghanistan. 83 The Afghan Taliban has been offered support by the Pakistani ISI. The Afghan Taliban recruits members within Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. Economic incentives are the most important reason for the youngsters who have joined the Taliban groups because of the high unemployment rate in Afghanistan. 84 The Afghan Taliban has much more arms such as firearms or explosives than other terrorist group in the 82 The military operations against TTP, it could not achieve cut off the Taliban network. See Ahmed 2014, p Peters, Gretchen (August 2009), How Opium profits the Taliban, United States Institute of Peace (USIP), p (Accessed 05/01/2015) 84 European Asylum Support Office (July 2012), Afghanistan Taliban strategies- Recruitment, Country of origin Information report, pp mplet_en.pdf (Accessed on 05/01/2015) 32