EU Enlargement Policy Critical Review of the Theoretical Research Framework

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1 Adam Szymański, PhD Institute of Political Science University of Warsaw EU Enlargement Policy Critical Review of the Theoretical Research Framework Paper for the 8 th Pan-European Conference on International Relations September 2013, Warsaw This text is a draft. Please, do not quote or cite without the author s permission. Abstract. The paper is a critical review of the research on the EU enlargement policy, being part of the external relations of the Union. At the beginning of the 21 st century such scholars as Frank Schimmelfennig, Ulrich Sedelmeier, Helene Sjursen or John O Brennan proposed a theoretical framework on the basis of the research of the IR theories - the rationalist approaches (the realist brand, liberal intergovernmentalism and supranational institutionalism) and the constructivist theory. This theoretical framework was used later by many scholars trying to explain mainly the reasons behind the decisions about the admission of new member states. The EU, member states and candidates policies were analysed in these cases. The research on the fourth major issue within the EU enlargement field the impact of the enlargement both on the EU and candidates was supported by the gradually developed framework referring to such processes as e.g. democratization or Europeanization. However, the author of the paper proves that the dominance of the descriptive and empirical works is still a problem of research of the EU enlargement in a long time perspective (including comparative studies), taking into the account the time factor. He presents some suggestions about the development of the theoretical framework that would contribute to the analysis of such phenomena as the change in the EU enlargement policy as well as the EU foreign policy generally. He argues that in this case the pluralistic and specialized approach is required. Key words: European Union, enlargement, theoretical framework, policy change Introduction The EU enlargement is one of most important European integration processes whose first round took place in the 1970s. It is still continuing although its current determinants make the process very difficult and complex (Szymański 2012). Surprisingly, the research on 1

2 the enlargement of the European Union has been developed since the 1990s and the first comprehensive theoretical framework on the basis of the research of the IR/European studies theories was proposed at the beginning of the 21 st century. This theoretical framework was used later by many scholars to do research on the EU enlargement within four main areas: enlargement politics of the candidate states, the member states, the EU itself as well as the impact of the EU enlargement on both the candidate states and the EU (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2006, ). This theoretical framework to date is very useful to conduct the analysis on the EU enlargement. However, there are still some theoretical deficits. The goal of this paper is to present a critical review of the research on the EU enlargement policy. The author intends to prove that although there any many analytical works on the particular enlargement round, including the current process in relation to Turkey, Western Balkan states and in recent years also Iceland, there is still a lack of the developed research on the enlargement in a long-term perspective, taking into the account the time factor. This paper presents suggestions about the development of the theoretical framework that would contribute to the analysis of a very important phenomenon of the change in the EU enlargement policy as well as the EU foreign policy in general. 1 It is mainly about the explanation of the reasons for change and the dominance of its particular type. In order to find the useful theoretical tools it is helpful to perceive the change of the EU enlargement policy first of all as the development of its institutionalisation, following Frank Schimmelfennig s and Ulrich Sedelmeier s approaches (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2006, 99). 2 The change of this policy refers then, on the one hand, to the change of its legal establishment, including the modification of treaty provisions and amendments to the treaties; the development of rules, procedures and mechanisms of the EU enlargement process included among others in the pre-accession strategies and in such major documents as 2

3 negotiating frameworks; the development of the EU enlargement strategy; the change of formal and informal principles of the EU enlargement strategy with the particular focus on the crucial EU conditionality and issues connected with it like membership criteria and their execution. On the other hand, it refers to the changing role of different EU institutions (first of all the Council and the Commission) in pursuing the EU enlargement policy - the process interrelated with the aforementioned changes of the policy. The first enlargement rounds - in the 1970s and 1980s - were accompanied with enlargement procedure rather than policy. The enlargement process was actually limited to the accession negotiations i.e. the talks mainly about the transitional measures. The stage before the accession negotiations was not developed during the first enlargement rounds - there was no pre-accession strategy to help candidates. The principle of conditionality was at a preliminary phase and the developed enlargement strategy did not exist at this time (Hillion 2010, 11-15). The key role in the pre-accession process was played by the EU Council as the main decision-maker and member states. The Commission had more advisory and auxiliary functions, although its importance was gradually increasing (Edwards 1998, 54-55). During the 2004 round the enlargement procedure was transformed into pro-active and meticulous policy of the EU (Hillion 2010, 11). The conditionality was implemented gradually, becoming increasigly strong thanks to the development from 1993 of the preaccession strategy and its instruments (Grabbe 2006, 7-22). Starting from 1993 the conditions of membership were elaborated and codified as the Copenhagen criteria (European Council 1993). Then they were refined by the next European Council s summits, operationalized into various indicators for candidates in the instruments of the pre-accession strategy and constitutionalized thanks to the provisions of the Amsterdam Treaty of 1997 (Pridham 2007, 451-2; Hillion 2004, 10-16). The role of the European Commission was strengthened as well. It became first of all the manager and coordinator of the complex pre-accession strategy. 3

4 However, the EU Council still played a key role as the decision-maker together with the European Council that gave political guidelines to the Commission (Hillion 2010, 13). The current EU enlargement round was accompanied in 2005 with the modification of the EU enlargement strategy. The strategy documents have reflected since the more cautious approach to the enlargement and the so called enlargement fatigue. They emphasize the open-ended nature of the current process and the role of the capacity of the EU to admit new member states - so called integration capacity (formerly absorption capacity) the Copenhagen criterion on the EU side (İçener and Phinnemore 2006, 37-43). The EU conditionality, an important pillar of the enlargement strategy, has been strengthened. It was reflected among others in rule that the problems of corruption as well as the current work of administration and the judiciary will be tackled by the European Commission already at an early stage of the accession process, since 2010 also the rule of law (European Commission 2006). Moreover, the benchmark system was introduced to the accession negotiations process to provisionally close and also to open the negotiation chapters - after a unanimous decision of the member states. Thus, the Council strengthened its position vis-à-vis the Commission, the former being now the key player not only in negotiations and making accession decisions, but also in the whole pre-accession process. Futhermore, since the Lisbon Treaty became effective, the European Council has agreed to the conditions of eligibility. 3 Both the enlargement strategy and pre-accession strategies have been slightly modified since What is common for all of changes of the EU enlargement policy is the domination of rather incremental, evolutionary and cumulative characteristics. This change concerns mainly the instruments and their use (its result is a mixture of old and new instruments), not the policy main paradigm. Therefore, it is the change connected with adaptation. 4 These are important factors influencing the choice of the useful theoretical tools to analyze the change of the EU enlargement policy. 4

5 The author of the paper argues that in this case, firstly, an interdisciplinary pluralistic approach is required - because of the complexity of the issue of change of the institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy. This approach is present in the case of the theoretical framework to date. However, secondly, a specialised theoretical approach is needed. It can be often more useful than one of the more general theories, e.g. intergovernmentalism or (neo)functionalism, which are not precise enough to explain single processes or actions within the EU (Ruszkowski 2012, 30-1). This is the case of the process of change of the EU enlargement policy the theoretical framework to date is too general and not really suitable. It is argued that the aforementioned two requirements are met by the theories of institutional change, developed in the framework of two different types of the new institutionalism - rational choice and historical institutionalism as well as critical approaches to them in the form of the theory of gradual institutional change (Héritier 2007, 5-66). In addition, a few theories of the policy process can be useful with reference to policy actors (Sabatier 2007). The paper consists of three sections. The first one is an outline of the research on the EU enlargement to date. The second section includes the details of the proposal of the theoretical approaches to the question of the change of this policy. The last section presents a few concrete examples of their usefulness. Theoretical Framework to Date The research on the enlargement of the European Union has been developed since At first there were a lot descriptive and empirical works. However, there was a lack of analyses based on the comprehensive theoretical framework explaining the process, first of all the reasons for its continuity. The theoretical deficits included e.g. the underspecification of 5

6 dependent variables and the neglect of important dimensions of EU enlargement, the underspecification of explanatory factors or independent variables (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2006, 96-7). At the beginning of the twenty-first century the situation improved such scholars as Frank Schimmelfennig, Ulrich Sedelmeier, Helene Sjursen or John O Brennan proposed a theoretical framework on the basis of the research of the international institutions (IR theories) - the rationalist and constructivist approaches (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2002, ; O Brennan 2006, ; Sjursen 2006, 1-15). For instance, the first two mentioned researchers referred to the realist brand, liberal intergovernmentalism and supranational institutionalism as well as to the constructivism. These theoretical approaches help to answer primarily the question of reasons for acceptance by the member states, the candidate countries as well as the EU institutions of the next Union s enlargement. Let us consider the example of the position of member states. The realist school of thought assumes that for a EU member the chief consideration will be the consequences of accession for its security and influence within the EU. In other words, it will support the enlargement of the Union by the country in question if it judges that this will improve its own position inside the EU or bring about a more balanced distribution of power within the organisation and that it will enable greater control over developments in the candidate country. According to the liberal intergovernmentalist approach a member state is likely to be in favour of accession if meaningful gains are to accrue as a result. It will support the accession of a particular country to the EU if the subsequent gains derived by the member country from the candidate s contribution to the assets of the community are at least equal to the costs involved in the sharing of these assets. It is also important whether or not the candidate country has well-developed economic relations with the given member of the Union. Supranationalist institutionalism holds that a member country will support the accession of a candidate country if this spells benefits for the Union as a whole. Finally, 6

7 constructivism postulates that a member state will be sympathetic towards enlargement if the candidate country in question identifies with the community represented by the EU (the identity question) and espouses the values and standards of the EU. In other words, the support is conditional on the European-ness of the candidate, its positive attitude to the European integration project and espousal of the principles of democracy and respect for human rights (Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2006, 103-6). The complete theoretical matrix proposed by Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier is included in the table below (Table 1). Table 1 Theoretical matrix for the research on the EU enlargement Applicant/ Member Politics state EU macropolitics (polity) EU substantive politics (policy) Realism Anticipated effect of enlargement on a state s: -autonomy -security -relative influence in EU Preferences of most powerful member states as above Liberal Intergovernmentalism Anticipated effect of enlargement on a state s welfare (depending on domestic economic structure) Relative bargaining power and sidepayments -as above -formal decisionmaking rules Supranational Institutionalism Anticipated effect of enlargement on: -the EU s collective interests -competences and budgets of individual institutions -agenda setting and entrepreneurship by institutional actors (Commission) -presence and strength of transnational interest groups in favour of enlargement -as above -formal decisionmaking rules Constructivism Extent of applicant s identification with the EU and its constitutive norms Extent of shared collective identity and constitutive norms between EU and applicants Ideas and policy paradigms underpinning particular policy areas Impact on new n.a. Empowerment of n.a. Socialization and members domestic actors; persuasion; legitimacy domestic adoption of EU rules and norms costs Source: Schimmelfenning, Frank and Sedelmeier, Ulrich The Study of EU Enlargement: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Findings. In Palgrave Advances in European Union Studies, eds. Michelle Cini and Angela K. Bourne, 102, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Other scholars presented similar concepts. For instance, Sjursen identified three types of reasoning: pragmatic, in which the interests of EU states are the prime consideration - 7

8 equivalent to rationalist perspectives, as well as ethical/political and moral, in which pride of place is given to, respectively, values or rights - equivalent to constructivism (Sjursen 2006, 1-15). O Brennan in turn wrote about the geopolitical, economic and normative explanations with reference to the Eastern enlargement (O Brennan 2006, ). This theoretical framework was used by many scholars trying to explain the reasons behind the decisions about the admission of new member states. The EU, member states and candidates policies were analysed here. The case of the Eastern enlargement was an incentive to develop a debate on the approach which best explains the reasons for acceptance of new member states (Moravcsik and Vachudova 2003; Sedelmeier 2005). Some scholars, taking part in this debate, tried at the same time to develop the existing framework, referring also to theories from other fields of studies. For instance, Christina Schneider developed, in a very interesting way, a rational choice perspective with the focus on the issue of conflict and negotiations about the distribution of costs and benefits resulting from enlargement, referring to theories of political economy models of Drazen, Persson and Tabellini as well as Pareto s optimality (Schneider 2009). The research on the fourth major issue within the EU enlargement field the impact of the enlargement both on the EU and candidates was supported by a gradually developed framework referring in the case of political issues to such processes as e.g. democratization or Europeanization. It concerns first of all the Eastern enlargement (Grabbe 2003, 2006; Pridham 2005; Schimmelfennig, Engert and Knobel 2006; Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2008) as well as the current process (Grigoriadis 2010, Terzi 2010, Nas and Özer 2012, Noutcheva and Aydın-Düzgit 2012; Elbasani 2013). However, all these theoretical works concern usually a particular enlargement round, first of all the 2004 enlargement. There is still a lack of the developed research on the enlargement in a long time perspective (including broad comparative studies), embracing the whole process of enlargement from the beginning to the current round and taking into the 8

9 account the time factor. The existing works are mainly descriptive and empirical (Pridham 2007; Vachudova 2007). Only in exceptional cases they focus on the whole process of enlargement and the development of its institutionalisation. A good study, though again mainly descriptive and empirical, is in this context a book written by Krystin Inglis who has been working on the EU enlargement for a long time (Inglis 2010). Proposal of Useful Theoretical Tools Constructive Criticism In order to make the criticism constructive the author of this paper presents some suggestions how to fill this research gap. The question is where to find the useful theoretical approaches that can help to explain the EU enlargement process in a longer period of time than one or even two rounds, taking into consideration also its current stage, with a particular emphasis on the question of a change of the EU enlargement policy. It is about the useful tools to do research whose scope, on the one hand, is narrower in comparison with the aforementioned theoretical studies it is limited to one of four main research areas in reference to the EU enlargement, namely the policy of the European Union. On the other hand, the time perspective is broader than in the case of previous studies this is a condition to analyse the phenomenon of change. The major questions are how to analyse the reasons for the change of the EU enlargement policy and how to explain its dominant type, i.e. the gradual, incremental change. It is argued that useful tools can be found within the theories of institutional change, developed in the framework of two different types of the new institutionalism - rational choice and historical institutionalism as well as critical approaches to them in the form of the theory of gradual institutional change (Héritier 2007, 5-66). The question of change of the EU enlargement policy requires an in-depth analysis, taking into consideration the process of 9

10 the change as well as various policy actors and relations between them. The useful theoretical tools can be found then also within a few theories of policy process (Sabatier 2007). The mentioned theoretical approaches within the new institutionalism were primarily developed with reference to a state. However, they started to be used in the areas of the international relations and the European studies as well. The enlargement policy of the European Union is a part of the external relations of the EU and the theoretical framework should be naturally searched first of all within the IR theories. However, the European Union is a hybrid, having both characteristics of a state as well as international organization, what is reflected also in the EU enlargement policy. The process of sharing the theoretical approaches in comparative politics and international relations (connected with long tradition of crosslevel international-domestic analysis) is then particularly advanced in the case of the EU (Jupille and Caporaso 1999, ). The new institutionalism should be mentioned at the first place in this context. It is developed within the research on both political systems and foreign policy and used broadly in the EU studies (Pollack 2004, ). The same can be said about the examples of theories of policy process, used increasingly in the European studies to analyse particular EU policies. 5 The EU enlargement policy began to be analysed with the use of the new institutionalism as well. The best example is the aforementioned debate about the best theoretical approach to analyse the Eastern enlargement as well as the studies on the impact of this enlargement on the political systems of candidates and the EU. The new institutionalism began to be used in research also on the institutional change in the EU. The works of Adrienne Héritier with broad theoretical and empirical components should be mentioned first of all in the case of the political system of the EU (Héritier 2007, 2012). She continued the previous general research on the change of the EC/EU institutions, which has however a limited theoretical framework that referred mainly to the intergovernmetalist and (neo)functionalist approaches (Keohane, Hoffmann 1991). One of 10

11 the last examples of the work on the external relations of the Union is the book by Cornelius Adebahr about the change of the EU foreign policy (Adebahr 2009). Relationship with Major IR and European Studies Theories The proposal of these theoretical approaches does not mean a departure from the IR/European integration theories constituting parts of the theoretical framework developed by such scholars as Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier. What is common for the proposal of this paper and the theoretical framework to date is the pluralistic approach - useful to explain different aspects of the complex issue of the EU enlargement policy and its change. Moreover, there are a lot of elements of the presented theoretical approaches that can be easily identified also in such theories as liberal intergovernmentalism (particularly in the case of rational choice institutionalism whose variant to explain the European integration is exactly the liberal integovernmentalism) and neo-functionalism (being also described as supranational institutionalism). When it comes to the first case, Schimmelfennig writes with reference to the institutional changes of the Union s polity that the liberal intergovernmentalism co-exists well with rational choice institutionalism, with which it shares basic theoretical and methodological assumptions. (Schimmelfennig 2004, 92), particularly in the situation of taking into consideration by the former of the international inter-dependence and the need to delegate the authority to the supranational level (in comparison to the classical intergovernmental approach). The general assumptions (putting aside some more concrete common theoretical approaches as e.g. the bargaining theory or the functional theory of institutional choice ) can be summarised as follows: states as the rational key actors pursue their foreign policy within the intergovernmental negotiations; the basis of their behaviour is the calculation of costs and benefits; they build institutions as a result of strategic choices and international bargaining. Both the liberal intergovernmentalism 11

12 and the rational choice institutionalism have also the common deficit they do not pay enough attention to the dynamics of politics (Schimmelfennig 2004, 76-78). The other theoretical approach within the new institutionalism, i.e. the historical institutionalism shares the assumptions concerning the initiation of the process of action and the choice of institutions. However, it points out that the actors can change their preferences within the negotiations and are limited by unintended consequences of their previous decisions (Schimmelfennig 2004, 82). Moravcsik proves that the aforementioned common assumptions refer also to the European integration (Moravcsik 1993, ). However, some differences appear in this area showing that the rational choice institutionalism is a better theoretical tool than the liberal intergovernmentalism to do research on the change of the EU enlargement policy. Although Moravcsik claims that institutions serve mainly the purpose of sanctioning the lack of compliance with the negotiated agreement, the rational choice institutionalism proves that they can be also helpful e.g. to reduce the costs of coordination of actions or to deliver information important aspects of the theories of institutional change. The liberal intergovernmentalism concentrates also too much on economic issues, instead of political and constitutional questions (Schimmelfenning 2004, 78-82). The neo-functionalism is not so closely connected with the new institutionalism as the liberal interngovernmentalism. However, a few common assumptions can be indicated. This is the reason why one can talk about the supranational institutionalism, included also in the Schimmelfenning s and Sedelmeier s matrix, which attaches great importance to the EU institutions. On the one hand some still valid assumptions of Ernst Haas approach are worth mentioning. A common aspect is a conviction about the gradual decision-making processes within the European integration due to the complexity of the structures and the lack of ability to predict by the decision-makers the long-term consequences of the previous decisions. The 12

13 common assumptions include also the importance of the institutionalisation as the main integration mechanism which generates and maintains the consensus as well as leads to the spill-over effect (with the stop-and-go option) that can be also a result of the learning process leading to the delegation of the authority to the supranational level (Wolf 2006, 67-74). On the other hand some macro-hypothesis of Philippe Schmitter s approach can be mentioned (apart from the spill-over hypothesis connected with the need to seek the alternative solutions to the problems and the lowest common denominator), i.e.: the hypothesis of natural entropy without the external factor there is a stagnancy, politicization hypothesis emphasis on the role of the national actors in the opposition against the shift towards the supranational direction (costs) or hypothesis of additivity each new factor will have an impact on the rest of variables (Schmitter 2004, 57-60). However, the direct use of the aforementioned assumptions and hypothesis of the neofunctionalism do not bring the expected results in the research on the change of the EU enlargement policy. The mechanisms of spill-over, spill-back or muddling about as well as the conviction about the evolutionary characteristics of the integration and institutionalization processes can give only the general hints about the mentioned change but not the detailed reasons for the phenomenon. It is a problem of most big theories that are too general. Moreover, some basic assumptions of the neo-functionalism do not fit the research on the change of the EU enlargement policy, e.g. the focus on the transformation of actors and the EU governance issue instead of the external relations, as well as the ontological aspect of neo-functionalism that refers to the question about the conditions of redefinition of the actors strategy concerning the regional decision-making and institutions (Schmitter 2004, 47 and 54-57). 13

14 The advantage of the specialized approach within the new institutionalism over the aforementioned theories lies generally in three issues: they have their source in the general theory of politics and can contribute to its development, they confirm the lack of validity of the traditional division into the comparative studies and the international relations and they are advanced both in theoretical and empirical terms (Pollack 2004, ). Mark Pollack adds another important advantage connected with the relationship between the integovernmentalist and neo-functionalist theories. He points to the feature of the rational choice institutionalism that actually suits well the case of the EU enlargement policy. He writes: It allows us to transcend the intergovernmental-neofunctionalist debate by acknowledging the initial primacy of the member states and, processing from this point, to generate a series of hypothesis about supranational autonomy and influence more precise than those generated by either neofunctionalist or intergovernmentalist theory (Pollack 1997, 101). Compatibility and Complementarity Various aspects of the change of the EU enlargement policy need to be explained by different theoretical concepts due to the policy complexity which is on a constant increase. It is important to maintain the compatibility and achieve the complementarity of the theoretical approaches used together. Because of this it is not possible to use the unlimited number of approaches. On the other hand, the so called Balkanization of the scholar literature connected with the almost absolute devotion to one theory only must be avoided (Kingston and Caballero 2009, 3). This is in accordance with the so called second movement in the institutional analysis consisting in the more constructive dialogue that explores the ways in which these paradigms might complement and connect to each other (Campbell 2004, 4). 14

15 Each type of new institutionalism is a useful tool to answer different questions concerning the change (and stability) of the EU enlargement policy because of the complexity of the change phenomenon itself. Although the rational choice institutionalism and historical institutionalism have common elements that enable them to be combined in empirical research e.g. the preference of the incremental change, use of path dependence mechanism or logic of consequences (Campbell 2004, 11), they take a different time perspective into consideration. The rational choice approach is rather static and puts aside the long-term perspective in comparison with the historical institutionalism (Pierson 2000, 493-6). Therefore the former is more helpful to understand the reasons for the change of the EU enlargement in a particular time period because of focusing on micro-politics, i.e. reasons for change made by particular subjects, usually in reaction to so called external shock that breaks the equilibrium. Some long-term dynamic processes (between equilibriums) within this policy, including those limiting the change, are not its specialty (Eriksson 2011, 161). The last issue is better explained by the historical institutionalism, enabling a researcher to answer the question about the reasons for the prevailing type of change characterizing this EU policy. This is because of the focus on the process as well as explanation to a larger extent of stability and limits of change than the change itself. There is a need then to used additionally the mentioned theory of gradual institutional change (Hall 1996, 950-5; Thelen 1999, ) as well as some theories of the policy process with reference to the mechanism of change connected with role of certain actors (Sabatier 2007). Examples of Usefulness of Theories of Institutional Change The scope of the paper allows the author to present only some examples of explanations of the selected aspects of change of the EU enlargement policy with the use of the above mentioned new institutionalism approaches. 15

16 Rational Choice Institutionalism When it comes to the general assumptions within the rational choice institutionalism, both its functional and distributional perspective help to explain the reasons for the changes of the EU enlargement policy. The functional approach stresses the shared concern of political actors with achieving common gains or efficiency through cooperation. Its general premise (and at the same time one of the main assumptions of the liberal intergovernmentalism) is that if, due to the external shock, the benefits of rule A have decreased, the rule will be changed, if the gains of the proposed altered rule B including the transaction costs will be higher. (Héritier 2007, 18). The change is followed by a period of a relative stability. One empirical example is the period of the 1990s when the external shock was connected with the appearance of the big group of countries with the European aspirations different from the candidates to date. The existing rules of the EU enlargement policy at the beginning of the 1990s were not enough to ensure the proper preparation of candidates that would be followed by the accession bringing more benefits than costs to the EU and its members. There was a need to codify the membership criteria and develop the mechanism of conditionality and the whole pre-accession strategy to monitor the progress of the candidates with unconsolidated democratic regimes and market economies (former communist states and Turkey were similar in this respect). Only then the costs connected with the pre-accession support (too high and long lasting in the case of maintaining the previous enlargement procedure) could be accepted by the member states. The transaction costs of the development of the institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy were at the same time relatively low. There was a consensus in the Union that they must be beard for the sake of the efficiency of the policy and the Union. In case of the major distributional perspective, the existing rule can be renegotiated/changed to reflect the preferences of the powerful actors or the changed power 16

17 balance. It emphasises the political conflict and strategic bargaining among actors (Knight 1992, ). This perspective explains the development of a more cautious EU enlargement strategy after the 2004 enlargement round with the emphasis on the open-ended process and the integration capacity of the EU. For the powerful actors France and Germany the maintenance of the existing institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy while having as candidates such countries as Turkey was too costly. The framework to date has not been adjusted to this candidate as well as the Western Balkan states and would have brought too much costs for the EU and the member states in the pre-accession process, not to mention the costs connected with the admission (also political ones). The distribution of the costs among member states through bargaining to end the conflict between them and reach a consensus on enlargement, e.g. thanks to such instruments as the long existing transitional measures appeared impossible. That is why member states opted for new mechanisms in the institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy (or for a greater significance of the already existing rules) that on the one hand would make the accession option for some candidates (read Turkey) much more difficult to achieve, if possible at all, and on the other hand would enable the strengthening of the position of the Council. The reasons for some changes of the EU enlargement policy can be explained also with the use of more specific theoretical concepts within the rational choice institutionalism. The first example, also with the exogenous source of change, concerns the learning process based on gaining new information. This is the concept developed both in the economic and political dimension by Douglas North. The main premise is here that the new knowledge and information in the environment of the institutional rule leads to the gradual transformation of this rule. This is then a simple, adaptation change to increase the effectiveness of an institution (North 1990, ). Within the EU enlargement policy the learning mechanism was a noticeable reason for changes after 2004 and 2007 enlargement. Member states and the 17

18 European Commissions were gaining new knowledge concerning the deficits of effectiveness of the existing mechanisms of the EU enlargement policy basing on the aforementioned case of big bang countries and later Romania and Bulgaria. It explains the strengthening of the principle of conditionality for Turkey and other candidates. This is reflected with reference to the EU enlargement policy. The knowledge of the Bulgarian and Romanian case was used within the accession negotiations with Turkey as well as Croatia with a stricter benchmarking system (which, by the way, was introduced basing on the knowledge of the 2004 enlargement round) in the judiciary and fundamental rights (Dimitrova 2011, ). The benchmarks to the negotiating chapter in the mentioned area will be even more rigorous in the future, basing on the information from the negotiations with Croatia that ended in June Judiciary and human rights chapter will probably be opened earlier in case of Turkey - so as to gain more time for this candidate to deliver on the commitments under this chapter (European Parliament 2012). In case of Montenegro the area of judiciary and human rights as well as justice, freedom and security were important already at the screening stage (European Commission 2012). Another aspect of the change of the EU enlargement policy can be explained by the principal-agent model (Aghion and Tirole 1997, 1-29). The basic assumption is that if the divergence between the principal s and the agent s preferences has become too large, the principal will redesign the contract, i.e. change the institutional rule in order to rein in the agent. (Héritier 2007, 25). The change of the contract is usually a result of the extensive agency loss. The goal of the contract corrections is to reduce this loss. The agency loss is an inherent element of the principal-agent model. Because of this the theory of the institutional change based on the principal-agent model can be classified as the one with the endogenous explanation of change. At the same time there is, however, also an exogenous element the 18

19 causes of the divergence of the preferences of the principal and the agent belong to the external factors (Héritier 2007, 25). This theoretical concept explains the reasons for the change of the positions of the EU institutions within the EU enlargement policy. The acceptance of a relatively strong position of the Commission was a fact before It was reflected in a different kind of delegation of authority to the Commission through the legislative measures adopted by the member states within the Council or day-to-day practice. However, the approval of the power relationship became too costly after the Eastern enlargement and had to be changed through the modification of the institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy (in the primary, secondary and supplementary EU law) i.e. through the revision of the Commission mandate within the policy. The aforementioned endogenous factor explaining change is also present in the analysed case. A crucial role was played by the change of approach of the member states towards the enlargement, affected by the current determinants of the policy both on the candidate state side (difficult candidates) and in the EU (e.g. the enlargement fatigue and the crisis). It resulted in an increasing divergence of the preferences of the Council and the Commission and was followed by the aforementioned redesign of the contract. The result was the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty or the negotiating frameworks giving the member states more competences in the institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy. Thanks to it the member states can control the pre-accession process of candidate states at the expense of the agent the Commission. Historical Institutionalism Although all these concepts within the rational choice institutionalism help to explain the reasons for the particular change of the EU enlargement policy, they do not explain 19

20 usually the long-term processes of institutional changes (with some exceptions as North s concept indicates). Because of this they answer only to a certain extent the question why the particular kind of change is taking place in a long time perspective namely the gradual, evolutionary change of the EU enlargement policy. They mention the costs, informal characters of rules or complex structures as obstacles to change. However, some useful tools to analyse the process of change and its constraints can be found in the historical institutionalism with the concept of path dependency and in the critical approach to it within the mentioned theory of the gradual institutional change (Pierson 2004; Mahoney and Thelen 2010, 1-37). The author of this paper agrees with Paul Pierson and other researchers sharing his opinion that in order to explain in a comprehensive way why the institutional change occurs it is important to analyse the institutional constraints to the change, taking into consideration the time factor (Pierson 2004, 134). The historical institutionalism with the concept of path dependency helps to explain why the gradual, evolutionary change of the EU enlargement policy prevails throughout its development. There are two main assumptions of the concept of path dependency. Firstly, there are crucial founding moments of institutional formation (critical junctures) that determine their further development. Secondly, institutions continue to evolve in response to changing environmental conditions and ongoing political manoeuvring but in ways that are constrained by past trajectories. (Thelen 1999, 387). According to Pierson, these constraints at the EU level are connected among others with the institutional barriers to embarking on major reforms, excessive costs of reinstatement of the situation existing prior to change, and the resistance of supranational institutions (Pierson 1996, 142-8). The critical juncture in case of the EU enlargement policy seems to be the noticeable progress in institutionalization of the policy in the 1990s. A consequent stage of this 20

21 development was determined by its previous phase. This is e.g. the case of the rules and mechanisms of the pre-accession procedure (mainly the principle of conditionality) that have been developed basing on the solutions to date. Also now Turkey, Western Balkan states and Iceland are within the same general institutional framework even if they are different candidates in comparison with the Central and East European countries and negotiate with a different EU. The changes of the EU policy have been gradual and evolutionary due to certain constraints, having a lot to do with past trajectories. When it comes to the institutional barriers to reforms, revolutionary changes of the EU enlargement policy are out of question because of the nature not only of this policy but also of all other EU policies. The main rules and institutional frameworks have the legal basis including the treaties and agreements that are not easy to be revised (Pierson 1996, 142). This concerns in the case of the analysed policy primarily the accession criteria and procedure of article 49 of the Treaty on the EU as well as the substance of the accession treaties, being also part of acquis communautaire. The characteristics of the institutional framework of EU enlargement policy also creates some barriers to big reforms. It concerns subsequent candidate countries in different time periods. The modifications of requirements for candidates are justified by the time factor and the specificity of a candidate. However, they concern the detailed issues. The framework the paradigm of the enlargement policy according to Hall 6 - must remain intact otherwise the basis not only of the enlargement policy but also of the Union itself (the Copenhagen criteria are at the same time the basic EU values) would be undermined. The same concerns some informal rules within the policy as e.g. pacta sunt servanda. Since it is untouchable, the Commission sometimes defends candidate countries from member states accusations, calling on them to deliver on their commitments in line with this rule. 21

22 Changing or renouncing some parts of the institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy can be also too costly for the Union and its members to take such measures. The best example is the current EU enlargement strategy reflected in the special documents. They are modified every year. However, the main principles remain intact. The reason is that the EU enlargement strategy referring to Turkey, Western Balkans and Iceland is an outcome of a difficult compromise between member states having different positions on the enlargement (supporting all these candidacies, supporting only the Balkan states as well as Iceland and being against the continuation of enlargement at all) and at the same time of the efforts of the European Commission - first to prepare the document that can be accepted by all member states and then to convince them to do adopt it. It is then very difficult to depart from the strategy because it would mean the beginning of the whole process from the beginning, including negotiation and bargaining with the participation of the member states and the EU institutions. The same refers to the components of the pre-accession strategy or the EU conditionality. They have been operating for a long time, carrying with them the commitments from the EU and member states side and contributing to the effectiveness of the enlargement policy. Therefore, the departure from them and the introduction of alternative instruments and mechanisms would be too costly, especially when the new solutions would appear to be not so effective as the previous ones. This is the reason why EU has problems with Turkey and its democratization process the conditionality de facto does not work but it is practically impossible to be replaced. The last issue is the resistance of the supranational institutions. The European Commission, apart from opposing the changes due to its commitment to the whole institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy, is the institution that very often resists the policy of the EU members leading to the increasing politicisation of the enlargement process. It is first of all about the states sceptical about the EU membership of this state and 22

23 their call for more substantial changes of the EU enlargement policy and introduction of the alternative solutions. The Commission, supported by some member states (a frequent need for the unanimous decisions within this policy constitutes another institutional barrier to change) resists e.g. the ideas of the development of alternative concepts to the EU membership which would mean a revolutionary change of the enlargement strategy (Szymański 2007, 55-72). Theory of Gradual Institutional Change However, the concept of the path dependency helps to answer to a large extent the question of stability, i.e. the lack of change than why the incremental, gradual change takes place (and what kind of change it exactly is). This cannot be changed by the fact that Pierson gives some examples of long-term processes that can generate change, e.g. cumulative causes, threshold effects or causal chains (Pierson 2004, ). The author of this paper agrees here with Kathleen Thelen who together with James Mahoney has developed the theory of the gradual institutional change to fill the gap within the concept of path dependence as well as within the rational choice institutionalism through explaining the institutional change both in reference to exogenous and endogenous factors. Thanks to their proposals of four modal types of the gradual institutional change, it is possible to explain better not only the political change itself (because of the indication of the role of the veto power of actors and the compliance with the rules) but also the particular kind of change. This concept is useful in the identification of the change of the EU enlargement policy. The modal type, which is a helpful tool, is the so called layering, i.e. in general terms the attachment of new rules to existing ones. These rules are not completely new there are numerous amendments or revisions of the existing rules. According to this model the challengers of these rules are not able to change them but they work within the system adding the new solutions on the top of old ones. The defenders of the status quo can prevent the 23

24 substantial change but they cannot resist its modifications (Mahoney and Thelen 2010, 16-17). A modification of the EU enlargement policy involves mainly adding new elements to an existing institutional backbone. This is the case of the development of the pre-accession strategy for Turkey. For instance, the establishment of eight working groups to deal with particular problems in the negotiations with this state was another element added to existing instruments of the strategy (one of the modifications after 2007). However, some of the incremental changes of the EU enlargement policy resemble another modal type, presented by Thelen and Mahoney, namely the conversion. It means generally that old rules remain the same but they begin to be interpreted or enacted in different ways, also because of their ambiguities (Mahoney and Thelen 2010, 17). When the layering in the case of the analysed policy concerns its framework, the conversion refers rather to individual rules within this framework. The best example is the capacity of the Union to admit new member states. At the beginning it was just one of the Copenhagen criteria, which became after 2004 one of the main pillars of the enlargement strategy. Its ambiguity leads to a new understanding of this principle as well as the development of related new mechanisms, e.g. the impact studies (Hillion 2010, 18-34). To recapitulate, the change of various parts of the institutional framework of the EU enlargement policy can be explained by relevant theories of institutional change within two kinds of new institutionalism and their criticism. This policy is then another example of the possible complementarity of different kinds of institutionalism and their combined usefulness in explaining the phenomenon of change. Theories of Policy Process as Additional Explanatory Tool The author of this paper follows the example of works of Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier and goes beyond one theoretical perspective that explains the EU enlargement 24

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