THE STATE OF MIND OF THE FRENCH PEOPLE 4 WEEKS BEFORE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Transcription

1 THE STATE OF MIND OF THE FRENCH PEOPLE 4 WEEKS BEFORE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 28 March Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

2 TECHNICAL NOTE SAMPLE persons registered on the electoral rolls, constituting a representative national sample of the French population aged 18 years and over. DATES OF FIELDWORK From 25 to 27 March Online interview. METHODOLOGY Quota method: gender, age, individual's occupation, region, urban/rural. As with any quantitative survey, this study presents results subject to the margins of error inherent in statistics. This report has been drawn up in compliance with the international standard ISO "Market research, social studies and opinion". 2 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

3 Participation index Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on April 23, Can give a score of 0 to 10 on r intention to vote in the first round of this presidential election? SYMPATHIZERS 61% 71% 70% 73% 69% 74% 74% PARTICIPATION 65% Note: 65% of French people intend to vote in the first round of the Presidential Election, 70% of PS sympathizers, 74% of LR sympathizers, 76% of FN sympathizers, etc. 3 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

4 Participation index- gender, age, interviewee s occupation PARTICIPATION 65% 68% GENDER 62% 54% LESS THAN 35 INTERVIEWEE S OCCUPATION AGE 67% 35 TO 64 73% % Senior Executive 69% Intermediate Profession 57% Employee 54% Worker 72% Retired 4 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

5 Voting Intention 1 ST ROUND 5 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

6 Voting intention 1st Round Question : If the first round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate whom will most probably vote? If the choice is between the following candidates? Base : Certain to vote, stated intention ,5 0,5 <0,5 Nathalie Arthaud Philippe Poutou Jean-Luc Mélenchon Benoît Hamon Emmanuel Macron Jean Lassalle François Fillon Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Marine Le Pen François Asselineau Jacques Cheminade People certain to vote who have not expressed an intention to vote 11% 6 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

7 Likelihood to change mind Base : Certain to go to vote Question : Is r voting choice definite or could still change r mind? ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTION DEFINITE NOT DECIDED DEFINITE 59% J-L Mélenchon B. Hamon E. Macron NOT DECIDED 41% F. Fillon M. Le Pen Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

8 VOTING INTENTION 2 nd ROUND 8 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

9 Voting intention 2 nd Round Hypothesis E. Macron versus M. Le Pen Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate whom will most probably vote? If the choice is between the following candidates? REPORTED VOICE 62% 38% Voting intention 1st round J-L. Mélenchon Benoît Hamon Not decided Total 54% 12% 34% 100% 77% 6% 17% 100% Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen François Fillon 38% 26% 36% 100% 9 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

10 10 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES IMAGE, POTENTIAL FOR WINNING AND FUTURE OF FRANCE

11 Candidates image among French people - summary Applies well to % J.-L. Mélenchon B. Hamon E. Macron F. Fillon M. Le Pen He/she is honest He/she would make a good president He/she proposes innovating solutions He/she renews positively the way of doing politic He/she proposes a realistic programme He/she is sympathetic He/she understands problems of people like He/she will meet his/her commitments Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

12 Jean-Luc Mélenchon s image Applies well to% All J.-L. Mélenchon B. Hamon E. Macron F. Fillon M. Le Pen He is honest He is sympathetic He understands the problems of people like He proposes innovating solutions He renews positively the way of doing politic He will meet his commitments He proposes a realistic programme He would make a good president Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

13 Benoît Hamon s image Applies well to% All B. Hamon J.-L. Mélenchon E. Macron Would vote F. Fillon M. Le Pen He is honest He is sympathetic He understands the problems of people like He proposes innovating solutions He renews positively the way of doing politics He will meet his commitments He would make a good president He proposes a realistic programme Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

14 Emmanuel Macron s image Applies well to% All E. Macron J.-L. Mélenchon B. Hamon F. Fillon M. Le Pen He is sympathetic He renews positively the way of doing politic He is honest He proposes innovating solutions He would make a good president He proposes a realistic programme He will meet his commitments He understands the problems of people like Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

15 François Fillon s image Applies well to% All F. Fillon J.-L. Mélenchon B. Hamon E. Macron M. Le Pen He proposes a realistic programme He will meet his commitments He would make a good president He proposes innovating solutions He is sympathetic He understands the problems of people like He renews positively the way of doing politic He is honest Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

16 Marine Le Pen s image Applies well to% All M. Le Pen J.-L. Mélenchon B. Hamon E. Macron F. Fillon She understands the problems of people like She will meet her commitments She proposes innovating solutions She renews positively the way of doing politic She proposes a realistic programme She is sympathetic She would make a good president She is honest Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

17 The opinion on the candidates personality and programme Is rather reassuring Is rather worrying Neither Question : For each of the following candidates, tell me if find his/her personality rather reassuring, rather worrying or neither? + For each of the following candidates, tell me if find his/her programme rather reassuring, rather worrying or neither? HIS/HER PERSONALITY HIS/HER PROGRAMME Emmanuel Macron Jean-Luc Mélenchon Benoît Hamon Marine Le Pen François Fillon Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

18 The opinion on candidates personality according voting intention Question : For each of the following candidates, tell me if find his/her personality rather reassuring, rather worrying or neither? % Reassures ALL Worries J.-L. Mélenchon Reassures Worries B. Hamon Reassures Worries E. Macron Reassure s Worries F. Fillon Reassures Worries M. Le Pen Reassures Worries Emmanuel Macron Jean-Luc Mélenchon Benoît Hamon Marine Le Pen François Fillon Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

19 The opinion on candidates programme according voting intention Question : For each of the following candidates, tell me if find his/her programme rather reassuring, rather worrying or neither? % Reassures ALL Worries J.-L. Mélenchon Reassures Worries B. Hamon Reassures Worries E. Macron Reassures Worries F. Fillon Reassures Worries M. Le Pen Reassures Worries Jean-Luc Mélenchon Benoît Hamon Emmanuel Macron François Fillon Marine Le Pen Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

20 Potential winning Question : For each of the following candidates, tell me if think that he/she could be elected as President of the Republic in May. It's certain or nearly that he/she will be elected It's very likely that he/she will be elected There is low chance that he/she will be elected It's impossible or nearly impossible that he/she will be elected Certain + high chance Low chance + Impossible Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen François Fillon Benoît Hamon Jean-Luc Mélenchon Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

21 Potential winning according to voting intention Question : For each of the following candidates, tell me if think that he/she could be elected as President of the Republic in May. % TOGETHER Certain+ high chance Low chance + Impossible J.-L. Mélenchon Certain+ high chance Low chance + Impossible B. Hamon Certain+ high chance Low chance + Impossible E. Macron Certain+ high chance Low chance + Impossible F. Fillon Certain+ high chance Low chance + Impossible M. Le Pen Certain+ high chance Faibles chances + Impossible Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen François Fillon Benoît Hamon Jean-Luc Mélenchon Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

22 France s future Question : For each of the following candidates: if he/she is elected as president of the Republic, what do think will happen to France over the next few years: Improve Degrade Neither Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen Jean-Luc Mélenchon François Fillon Benoît Hamon Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

23 France s future Question: For each of the following candidates: if he/she is elected as president of the Republic, what do think will happen to France over the next few years: The situation in France % TOGETHER Will improve Will degrade J.-L. Mélenchon Will improve Will degrade B. Hamon Will improve Will degrade E. Macron Will improve Will degrade F. Fillon Will improve Will degrade M. Le Pen Will improve Will degrade E. Macron M. Le Pen J-L Mélenchon F. Fillon B. Hamon Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL

24 24 24 Ipsos PRESIDENTIAL