GENDER GAP EVIDENT IN NUMEROUS 1998 RACES

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1 CAWP Fact Sheet Center for the American Woman and Politics Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, NJ (732) Fax: (732) GENDER GAP EVIDENT IN NUMEROUS 1998 RACES The data used for this article are from Voter News Service (VNS) which conducted exit polls in 65 races. VNS reports an average margin of error of four percentage points for its statewide polls; the margin of error for part of the sample (e.g. female or male voters) may be greater. In 72% (47 of 65) races where Voter News Service (VNS) conducted exit polls on election day, there were gender gaps of at least four percentage points - that is, a difference of at least four percentage points between the proportion of women s and men s votes garnered by the winner. There were gender gaps of this magnitude in 70% (23 of 33) gubernatorial races and in 75% (24 of 32) senatorial races. (See table entitled Election 1998: Exit Poll Results by Gender in Races Where Voter News Service Conducted Exit Polls.) In all but 3 of the 47 races with gender gaps, female voters were more supportive of Democratic candidates than were male voters. OUTCOMES AFFECTED BY GENDER GAPS: There were thirteen races where a majority of women voted for a different candidate than did the majority of men. Five Democratic candidates owe their victories to women and eight victorious Republicans to men. (See table entitled 1998 Races Where Female and Male Voters Made a Different Voting Choices.) VNS reports an average margin of error of four percentage points for its statewide polls. Using this standard, there are an additional six races where the votes of one sex were about evenly divided between the candidates while the votes of the other sex more clearly favored one candidate over the other. Among those races, there were four where men were about evenly divided and the Democratic candidates preferred by women won; there were two races where women were about evenly divided and the Republican candidates preferred by men won. (See table entitled 1998 Races Where Female and Male Voters May Have Made Different Voting Choices.) RACES WITH THE LARGEST GENDER GAPS: In fourteen races, the gender gaps exceeded ten percentage points. In three of those races, women s votes determined the winners: Senate races in New York and North Carolina where Charles Schumer (D) and John Edwards (D) won, and the gubernatorial race in Maryland, where Parris Glendening (D) won. In four gubernatorial races with large gender gaps, men s votes determined the winners: Bill Owens (R-CO); Jeb Bush (R-FL); A. Paul Cellucci (R-MA); and Robert Taft (R-OH). In the other seven races with gender gaps larger than ten percentage points, majorities of women and men favored the same candidates but by widely divergent margins. Those contests included the Senate races of: John Breaux (D-LA); Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-CO); Christopher Dodd (D-CT); Byron Dorgan (D-ND); Barbara Mikulski (D-MD); and two gubernatorial races: John Kitzhaber (D-OR); Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). WOMEN CANDIDATES: VNS conducted exit polls in nine of the ten Senate races involving women candidates.(vns did not poll in Hawaii). In eight of these races, there were gender gaps. Women voters were more supportive of Democratic women candidates in five races Barbara Boxer (D-CA); Blanche Lincoln (D-AR); Barbara Mikulski (D-MD); Carol Moseley-Braun (D-IL); and Patty Murray (D-WA). All of these candidates except Moseley-Braun won their Senate races. In two races with Republican women candidates (ND and WA), women voters were more likely than men to support the Democratic candidate. VNS conducted exit polls in nine of the ten gubernatorial races involving women candidates. There were gender gaps in six of those races: Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Nevada, New Hampshire and Oklahoma. Women voted for women gubernatorial nominees in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. In three races, the majority of women voters favored the Democratic male candidate: Maryland, Rhode Island and Vermont. * The data used for this article are from Voter News Service (VNS) which conducted exit polls in 65 races. VNS reports an average margin of error of four percentage points for its statewide polls; the margin of error for part of the sample (e.g. female or male voters) may be greater. Reproduction of this entire document or any part of it for non-commercial purposes is encouraged, provided credit is given to Center for American Women and Politics, Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University. Any information reproduced must include footnotes/ endnotes which apply to that information. Commercial reproduction requires prior permission in writing from Center for American Women and Politics. COPYRIGHT Center for the American Woman and Politics (CAWP). 3/99

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