The Merlion and the Ashoka

Transcription

1 Introduction The Merlion and the Ashoka Anit Mukherjee I t was not a coincidence that India s Look East Policy was officially articulated by Prime Minister Narasimha Rao during the course of his famous Singapore lecture delivered on 8 September Even at that early stage, and at various times since, Singapore has been described by Indian diplomats as the pivot of India s engagement with the region. Over the years, Singapore has played a decisive role in facilitating India s entry into various multilateral and regional forums. In turn, India in an unprecedented and unique gesture, allows the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) to train on its soil. This diplomatic and defence cooperation has been matched by growing economic, cultural and social ties. This year, as we approach the 50th anniversary of India Singapore relations, the South Asia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) convened a workshop to examine security cooperation between the two countries. 1 For the full text of this lecture see P. V. Narasimha Rao, India and the Asia-Pacific: Forging a New Relationship, in Singapore Lecture Series, 1994 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, August 1995). 1

2 2 The Merlion and the Ashoka: Singapore India Strategic Ties The workshop consisted of four papers two from each country, focusing separately on strategic and defence cooperation. Strategic cooperation was examined by See Chak Mun (Singapore) and C. Rajamohan (India), while defence cooperation was analysed by Bilveer Singh (Singapore), and Vijay Sakhuja and Gurpreet Khurana (India). Mr Peter Ho, who had a varied experience in dealing with Singapore India ties, gave the keynote address which is also included in this monograph. In addition, to provide feedback to the paper authors, there were four commentators Tan Tai Yong and Sinderpal Singh, both commenting on the Singaporean perspective, and Pradeep Chauhan and Prakash Menon, who commented on the papers describing the Indian perspective. The broad theme of the conference was to examine Singapore India ties by looking back and looking ahead. Accordingly, the following issues and questions were examined by the authors: Discuss the historical evolution of India Singapore strategic ties. What are the existing forums wherein views about strategic ties are discussed between the two countries? Is there a need to enhance this? Where does security cooperation between the two countries currently stand and what might be its future trajectory? What is the existing arrangement for defence cooperation? And what has it achieved? What aspects of the defence relationship can the two countries build upon? And what are the new areas that can be explored for future defence cooperation?

3 The Merlion and the Ashoka 3 Peter Ho s opening chapter provides a good overview interspersed with some personal recollections of Singapore India strategic and defence cooperation. After describing the historical missteps that saw both countries having a different perspective on global issues during the Cold war, Ho describes the gradual transformation in the relationship. From a Singaporean perspective, he argues that the fundamental challenge is to find ways to overcome the limits of size and influence. The strategic objective is to manage relations with regional and global powers, including India, in a way that promotes regional stability without constraining the right of all the players, big and small, to pursue their respective national interests. Furthermore, he argues that there is a convergence of interests, not only between Singapore but also between other ASEAN countries and India: ASEAN s approach to regional architecture fits in well with India s Look East Policy. This is because while it engages all players, big and small, it does not attempt to force them to take sides. While looking ahead, Ho recommends creating an institutional framework in order to manage the inevitable ups and downs in the bilateral relationship, and more importantly, to chart the way forward. As discussed later, this recommendation is supported by other authors in this book who argue for the need to institutionalise and create more forums for enhancing security cooperation. Ho s conclusion is aimed at the Singaporean government and he argues that the onus is greater on Singapore to maintain its strategic relevance to India. Singapore leaders have to make the effort to visit India, without necessarily always expecting reciprocity from their counterparts. This emphasis on adopting a non-transactional based approach is praiseworthy though difficult especially for policymakers who, perhaps understandably, focus on the present.

4 4 The Merlion and the Ashoka: Singapore India Strategic Ties C. Rajamohan s chapter examines the Indian perspective on strategic ties with Singapore. It argues that the evolution of the bilateral partnership can be imagined in three phases: the years of colonial construction, post-colonial neglect, and the Look East policy. The colonial construction provides a fascinating, and often overlooked, aspect of Singapore s ties with India during our shared colonial rule. It describes how Singapore provided the eastern anchor for Indian security at the heart of Britain s imperial defence system in Asia and the Indian Ocean. The section on post-colonial neglect describes how, since the 1950s, the two countries steadily disconnected, and argues that the sources of this divergence were largely in India at a moment when the region was deeply suspicious of China and was eager to counter its expansionist policies, Delhi was paralysed by self-doubt, economic fragility and the inability to appreciate the strategic developments in Asia. Despite the shared concerns about China, Delhi seemed incapable of imagining strategic partnerships with its East Asian neighbours. The discussion on the Look East Policy deftly describes the transformation in India s policies towards Singapore and the larger Southeast Asian region. On this, he argues, Singapore provided critical support for Delhi s step-by-step integration into the ASEAN structures and helped overcome widespread scepticism within the organisation about the value of having India inside the tent. Moving to contemporary times, C. Rajamohan describes the widespread sentiment that India was a reluctant partner in the Asia-Pacific region and was punching below its potential. He argues that while the armed forces and the diplomats were eager to expand defence engagement with Singapore and the ASEAN, the civilian bureaucracy in the MoD [Ministry of Defence] seemed both unwilling and unable to

5 The Merlion and the Ashoka 5 seize the new opportunity to enhance India s role in the region many of the problems on India s strategic engagement in the East could be attributed to [Defence Minister] Antony s worldview and the weakness of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. However, the author is more confident that under Prime Minister Modi there will be substantial changes from the policies of the previous government and India may be in a position to restore its Eastern anchor. The chapter concludes that the geopolitical significance of Singapore for India is likely to grow and this presents an opportunity to elevate the current security engagement between the two countries to a comprehensive strategic partnership. To do this, C. Rajamohan recommends a formal bilateral agreement on strategic partnership that will consolidate and build on the advances in defence and security cooperation over the last many decades. Such an agreement could set forth an agenda that includes two plus two dialogues among the defence and foreign ministers. This idea could sustain the current transformation in the bilateral relationship and requires careful consideration by policymakers in both countries. The Singaporean perspective on strategic ties with India is described next in the chapter by See Chak Mun. He begins with the assertion that the basic tenet of Singapore s foreign and security policy is to seek a balance among the major powers in East Asia, a balance which is not directed against any specific power, but a multi-faceted balance that would give Singapore strategic space and room to manoeuvre. According to him as Singapore has been consistently seeking to engage India, as the latter is considered to be one of these major powers. He argues that there are four phases in how Singapore viewed India in the strategic context. The first phase covered the early years of Singapore s

6 6 The Merlion and the Ashoka: Singapore India Strategic Ties independence. The second phase saw a cooling off in India ASEAN relations during late 70s to 80s due to differences on Afghanistan and Cambodia. The third phase began in the early 1990s when economic reforms under the Narasimha Rao government raised expectations about the Indian economy. The fourth phase is the contemporary period when rising India and China raised both hopes and concerns about how these two Asian giants and the relationship between them would impact on the stability and security of the region. Thereafter, he describes each of these phases. See Chak Mun provides an illuminating diplomatic history of Singapore India ties and describes many personal interactions. His analysis of the contemporary period focuses on the dynamics of India China relations. According to him, this is an important consideration as from Singapore s perspective, co-operation between the two rising Asian giants would contribute immensely to the region s stability and prosperity, whereas a conflict between them would have a severe negative impact on the region s growth and confidence. The geopolitical risks are high as other major powers like the USA and Japan would likely be drawn into such a conflict. It is in Singapore s interest therefore, according to him, for India and China to work together in shaping a wider architecture of co-operation in the Asia Pacific. To make this a reality, he advocates for more exchanges in the track 1.5 level and concludes with a recommendation that Singapore is well-positioned to act as a facilitator in initiating such a process. The next two chapters focus on defence cooperation between Singapore and India. The Indian perspective is written by Vijay Sakhuja and Gurpreet Khurana. They begin by arguing that the strength of the bilateral relationship lies in the commonality of core values, from which defence

7 The Merlion and the Ashoka 7 cooperation is but natural. The authors argue that defence cooperation between the two countries is augmented by the fact that both their national security objectives are premised on status quo, rather than revisionism. Yet, the two countries are not immune to security challenges to preserve core interests. While India is grappling with territorial disputes with neigbours, Singapore finds itself vulnerable due to the lack of strategic depth. Thereafter, their chapter provides a useful historical overview and description of defence ties, including regular military exercises and defence dialogues. Defence cooperation rapidly increased after the 2003 Defence Cooperation Agreement leading to developments wherein India allowed Singapore to base its military assets, for training purposes, on Indian soil. Highlighting this point, the authors point out that this was the first time ever that India leased out its military facility to a foreign country. In turn, Singapore allowed considerable access to Indian naval ships and in 2006 in a significant move appointed a defence attaché to the Singapore high commission in Delhi. The next section of their chapter explores avenues for future cooperation including security of shipping lanes, disaster relief, search and rescue, maritime domain awareness, and so on. Interestingly, they see defence industry cooperation as an important, and largely untapped, avenue for future collaboration. The authors highlight the potential for joint-development of military hardware emerging from the Make in India policy announced by Prime Minister Modi. Accordingly, they identify joint naval shipbuilding as a key potential area of cooperation. The final chapter, which provides a Singaporean account of defence cooperation with India, is written by Bilveer Singh. His analysis divides defence cooperation into three phases.

8 8 The Merlion and the Ashoka: Singapore India Strategic Ties The first phase, from 1965 to the early 1990s, was marked by low level defence ties, with minimal exchanges between the two states, caused mainly by divergence in strategic outlooks. The second phase from 1993 to 2003 witnessed the Lion King series of naval exercises, later renamed SIMBEX (Singapore India Maritime Bilateral Exercise), and growing bilateral visits and exchanges. According to the author, these exercises allowed the Singaporean Navy access to Indian naval facilities including Port Blair in the Andaman Islands and in Cochin and had the honour of being the only foreign country to do so. All this laid the foundation for greater defence cooperation. The third phase was from 2003 onwards and has been marked by unprecedented levels of cooperation. Bilveer Singh s chapter then discusses the factors behind the flourishing of Singapore India defence relations and the benefits of close defence ties. Besides military training and developing skillsets, the author identifies the opportunity for Singapore to familiarize itself with Russian origin equipment. Next, the author describes the challenge of asymmetry, in terms of sheer size, between the two countries to argue that this means that Singapore has to work assiduously hard to remain relevant to India if she wants to develop close ties, especially in the defence sector. The author concludes with a geopolitical assessment that seeks to explain India s place in Singapore s overall strategy. This is an excellent discussion that situates defence cooperation between the two countries in the larger framework of Singapore s worldview and strategy. While many aspects of Singapore India strategic ties were discussed at the workshop, there were two points that emerged for future consideration. First, all the participants felt the need to regularise the intellectual discussion and interaction among experts dealing with strategic and defence

9 The Merlion and the Ashoka 9 ties. Government-to-government ties in this sector might be strong; however, the discussion among members of the strategic community, in both countries, largely glosses over the transformation and the potential for further strengthening the defence relationship. It might be a good idea therefore to go beyond creating a track 1.5 level forum focusing on strategic and defence ties. Moreover, such an overall assessment of Singapore India defence ties could be undertaken on a periodic basis of, say, every three to five years. Second, there is a need to capture the perspectives and build upon the goodwill generated on the military side from regular Singapore India defence exchanges. By virtue of the transformation in defence ties, there has been a significant increase in the interaction between the two militaries, via exercises, attending each other s military academies, ship visits, etc. There is an untold story here about the changing perceptions of both militaries towards each other. This might be a worthwhile endeavour to be taken on by the military community. By discussing different aspects of Singapore India defence ties, the workshop was largely able to meet its goals. The outcome of the workshop this monograph wishes to inform and engage the strategic community and members of the public, in both countries, about the strength of the bilateral relationship and the transformation in defence ties. Before leaving the reader to peruse the monograph, I would like to thank my colleagues Tan See Seng and Rajesh Basrur for all the help extended in thinking through this workshop. I would also like to thank all the authors, commentators and participants who attended the workshop. Last, but definitely not the least, I would like to thank the following members for helping to put together this event: Liew Noke Ling Pauline, Scott Lai, Dale Yang and Hairulnizam Bin Churemi.