The Process and Problems

Transcription

1 Frye AP Gov

2 The Process and Problems

3 Exploratory committee; network within party Fund raise Announce then campaign Straw polls Do you have a name? TONE THEME TARGET Incumbents win in Senate 90% and in House 95% - tough to be the challenger Organize staff and volunteers Local offices, State office, PREZ: national office Fundraise! File papers Grassroots Run ads Raise money New media Advisors : position papers Debates Signatures to get on the ballot [in all 50 states for Pres.]

4 In some states the top 2 vote getters go at it even if both are from the same party. JAN JUNE: Primaries and Caucuses Jan Iowa, NH, SC, Fla Mar Super Tuesday * Get DELEGATES JULY or AUG: Convention General campaign in the fall [incl. debates] Running mate Platform General election [1 st Tues in Nov] For Congress Playing to the BASE - appeal to the party faithful who actually vote in primaries and caucuses Superdelgates [Dems] party leaders [not elected in primary Electable or Playing to the MIDDLE Moderating tone for a national majority Actually picks delegates to ELECTORAL COLLEGE which votes in late DEC Party winners face each other in NOV JAN Sworn in!

5 Types of Primaries [NH first] Caucus a few people gather in a room to vote in each neighborhood Iowa first Closed only party members get that party s ballot Open Independents can vote for one party or the other [Not used for President]: Blanket Both parties on ballot; everyone votes.runoff Top two vote getters run again [may be same party] unless Terms Coat tails: Positive effect of being associated with presidential candiadte Valence Issues Issues everyone agrees on PAC Political Action committee I approved this ad SuperPAC a PAC not legally connected to a candidate Republican Base - conservatives Democratic Base liberals Partisan vs. Bipartisan

6 # of Senators plus # of Reps DC gets 3 Each state is winner take all [except in Maine & Nebraska] Must have majority 270 of 538] or else HOUSE picks President 1800 and 1824 SENATE picks VP Allows winners with less than 50% to win Lincoln 60, Wilson 12, Clinton 92 Electors are often bound to vote their commitment [but not always] Has never picked a winner other than the one who won on election night.

7 Possible to win popular and lose electoral due to formula 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 Inequality: 1:650k in California; 1:200K in Wyoming Possible to win 10 top states only and win

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9 2008 Electoral College Numbers

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11 The Process and Problems

12 Family at least 85% same as parents 40-60% Worldview [a.k.a. religion or philosophy] Class Region Experiences Gender Race Personal Historical Education [Teachers are #2 shapers]

13 Random sample Sampling error Was it really random? Problems How did you ask the question? Precision of the question Elites vs. the public There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics Benjamin Disraeli, 19c British prime minister

14 Linear View Far left Left Right Far right Moderates Marxists Socialists Green Party Fiscal Liberal Active government / Uniformity across USA Redistributive taxes & larger social programs Pro-Union Protect markets Social Liberal Progress via government solving social issues [ex:crime] essential goodness of man Personal morality [choice], therapeutic Equality of results Foreign Policy Liberal Internationalist UN Belief in universal progress Fiscal Conservative Small government / Local & state Less taxes & debt Pro-business Free trade Social Conservative Maintenance of order by defending the right against the danger of evil [dual human nature] Traditional morality [absolutes], responsibility Equality of opportunity Foreign Policy Conservative Exceptionalism [uniqueness] Strong defense of US interests Hesitant about regime change Racists Reactionaries

15 Racists Reactionaries Marxists Socialists Green Party secular Liberals [Progressives] Fiscal Liberal Social Liberal Foreign Policy Liberal religious secular Libertarians Nuanced View Social Liberal Fiscal Conservative Blue Dog Democrats Indep. Moderates Moderate Republicans Social Conservative Tea Party Conservatives Fiscal Conservative Social Conservative Foreign Policy Conservative religious/ traditional religious Fiscal Liberal Populist [Compassionate Conservative]

16 Ideological 3d Party types 2010

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18 Ron Paul Nader Pelosi Obama, Gore Bill Clinton Rand Paul Ted Cruz Hillary Ryan Boehner Gingrich, Bush Jr. McConnell McCain, Bush, Sr Romney

19 Greatest Generation [ ] Baby Boomers [ ] Millennials or Gen. Y [1980-early 90s] Silent Generation [ ] Gen. X or Baby Busters [ ] Digital Natives or Gen. Z [1995 ]

20 Younger [some conservative/ libertarian trending] Older [though Boomers trend center-left] Women [weak trend] Men [weak trend] Unions More education Less education Professors Journalists Liberal arts Entertainers Military Cops Finance, MBAs Engineers Independent Business

21 Jews Mainline Protestant New Age / Eastern Rel. Nonreligious Catholics Black Evangelicals Evangelicals Mormons Blacks Native Americans Asians [>5%] Hispanics 14% now - 25% by 2025 Whites [weak trend] Urban Suburbs Exurbs Rural

22 Rich 1988 rich % paying income tax Middle class White collar Rich Middle Class gap Poor Blue collar Lower Middle Class Service ind. Poverty 12%...16% Lower Middle Class Poor

23 USA Trending Cons West Mountain Upper Midwest [North] East Trending Lib Lower Midwest South Where Obama and Romney spent most ad money, fall 12 Summary of results of the 96, 00, 04, 08 presidential elections: RED - States carried by the Republican in all four elections PINK - States carried by the Republican in three of the four elections PURPLE - States carried by each party twice in the four elections LT. BLUE - States carried by the Democrat in three of the four elections BLUE - States carried by the Democrat in all four elections

24 JoCo Mormons Kansas City Chicago Utah LA San Diego [military] Native American & Hispanic population Large Hispanic population Miami

25 Red rep Blue dem Green indep. [lib] GOVERNORS

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27 Portland Eugene GP Ashland

28 Portland Salem Eugene 4 th District JoCo GP 2d District Peter DeFazio [D] 4 th Dist Greg Walden [R] 2d Dist.

29 By county, actual votes from 04 election

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32 A Short Political History

33 Europarties Socialists Leftists Green USA Big tent coalitions Divided government Diversity and compromise within the two parties Growth of independents [30%] Decentralized County and state parties are independent and often varied in attitudes Minimal importance: Americans identify more with other civic and cultural groups Ideological parties Europe Winner take all but Compromise and coalition after election Weak independent groupings Centralized control of candidates Major source of identity Christian Democrats Nationalist s Communist s

34 Nominating Inform Organize - network Endorse, bonding Watchdog [loyal opposition] Minor parties Single issue Know Nothings, Free Soil Personality driven Bull Moose, Reform [90s] Ideological Socialist, Constitution Economic Tea Party Splinter Dixiecrats, Tea Party

35 1804 Hamilton shot 1814 Feds plot secession WHIGS Divided on slavery Urban interests Cities and North Hamilton and Federalists Era of Good Feelings The Founders to 1860 Whigs Jefferson s Democratic-Republicans Age of Jackson 1800 Peaceful transition from Adams to Jefferson DEMOCRATS Pro slavery Farmers, South Easy credit [opposes centralized control of finances] Pro-expansion Weak federal gov t Election thrown to House; JQ Adams [2d place] defeats Jackson with aid of Clay [3d place] 1828 common man [# of voters doubles] electi on of Jackson 3d Parties Anti-Masonic Know Nothing Free Soil

36 1854 Formation of Republican Party Radical Republicans 1860 Election of Lincoln and Civil War Democrats Southern whites and Western farmers Rural, traditional Easy credit Republicans Anti slavery North and cities Business, tight money 1876 Hayes-Tilden Deal ends Reconstruction 1896 W.J. Bryan [Dem Prog] loses to McKinley Republican Stalwarts Civil War to FDR Southern Democrats 1901 TR Progressive president, active president Progressive Republicans T.Roosevelt, LaFollette, Taft, Hoover : pro-business Republicans 1929 Progressive Democrats Cleveland, W.J. Bryan, Wilson, FDR 1912 TR and Taft split Rep. vote Wilson wins Blacks, minorities, unions, Catholics, workers, liberal intellectuals FDR s New Deal Coalition sweeps election [Depression]

37 PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS Government solutions Pro-union Efficiency and technological solutions Democracy & transparency FISCAL REPUBLICANS Laissez faire, Social Darwinism Business as heroes No debt, gold standard McKinley, Coolidge 1930s Freud, Darwin, Marx and Keynes Questioning traditional morality; social problems caused by social inequities [Rousseau]; redistribution of wealth; managed economy rule of wise..liberals PROGRESSIVE REPUBLICANS Government as referee Transparency and efficacy Pro-consumers [middle class] Anti-racist Teddy Roosevelt, Hoover SOUTHERN DEMOCRATS Racism Tradition Rural Dixiecrats [post WW2] FDR s New Deal Coalition: Ethnic groups, unions, liberals, intellectuals, industrial workers, Catholics, and anger against Depression

38 Moderate Republicans {Eisenhower, Ford} Korea Vietnam FDR Truman Eisenhower JFK LBJ Nixon Ford Carter Southern Democrats [Dixiecrats] 1964 Goldwater [very cons.] defeated Oil Crisis Watergate Conservative Republicans Southern Conservative Democrats New Deal Democrats..[Truman, JFK, RFK, LBJ] Moderate Democrats Iranian crisis Liberal Democrats [McGovern] Civil Rights Movement LBJs Great Society Warren Court, Cultural Revolution of the 60s 1972 McGovern defeated [very liberal]

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40 Republicans Low taxes, small gov t., states rights Strong defense, anti-communist De jure civil rights Traditional values, tough on crime Pro-life Pro-business, less regulation Democrats Keynesian, active [technocrats] federal gov t. Internationalist Minorities [civil rights, affirmative action, gay rights] Expanding rights; permissive of individual conduct Pro-choice Unions, Environmental concerns

41 Ronald Reagan End of Cold War Bush, Sr. Clinton Bush Jr. Obama 9/11 Conservative Republicans Tea Party Moderate Republicans Ross Perot s Reform Party Conservative Democrats [Populists, Blue Dogs] Moderate Democrats [Gore, Reid] Rise of Independents Liberal Democrats [Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry, T. Kennedy, H.Clinton, Pelosi] Gulf War Bush v Gore 2000 Nader s Green Party Iraq War Afghan War Occupy Recession

42 A Short Political History

43 An association of people independent of both government and political parties who pressure politicians/leaders toward a specific end or set of goals. Tools First one was the abolition movement later unions PACs Lobbying Think tanks Informing legislators Revolving door K Street Money for campaigns [limits] Advertising Buckley v Valeo 1976 Citizens United v FEC 2010 Grassroots

44 Ideological Groups Unions Industries and Professions Single Issue Groups Public Interest Solidarity [demographic]

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