Coalition governments and party competition: Political communication strategies of coalition parties

Transcription

1 Coalition governments and party competition: Political communication strategies of coalition parties Iñaki Sagarzazu University of Glasgow Heike Klüver University of Hamburg Abstract Coalition parties have to reconcile two competing logics: They need to demonstrate unity to govern together, but also have to emphasize their own profile to succeed in elections. We argue that the electoral cycle explains whether unity or differentiation prevails. While differentiation dominates at the beginning and the end of the legislative term in close proximity to elections, compromise dominates the middle of the term when coalition governments focus on enacting a common policy agenda. To test our theoretical claims, we draw on an innovative quantitative text analysis of more than 21,000 press releases published by coalition parties from 2000 until Keywords: Coalition Governments, Electoral Cycle, Political Parties, Political Communication, Press Releases, Quantitative Text Analysis Published in Political Science Research and Methods

2 A Online Appendix Examples of press releases Press Release issued by the Greens No: 0648/2000 Date: Decision of Bundestag on Civil Union in November The spokesmen for legal policy Volker Beck (Greens) and Alfred Hartenbach (SPD) declare: The coalition strives to adopt the bill on Civil Union still in November. The final debate in the Bundestag is scheduled for 10 November. With the introduction of the Civil Union, we aim to reduce discrimination of same-sex couples. Gay and lesbian couples will for the first time get a sold legal framework for their relationships by introducing the Civil Union as a new legal instrument in German family law. The red-green coalition therefore fulfills another important reform promise. The Civil Union creates more justice. Homosexual partners were so far treated as strangers by German law even if they have lived together and cared for another for decades. We will abolish this injustice now. We currently still negotiate with the rapporteurs of the other party groups. Additional comments received in consultations of experts are moreover being integrated into the bill. The final debate will be held in the Committee for Legal affairs on 8th of November. The bill will be divided into two parts for the second and third reading in the Bundestag. One bill for which the consent of the Bundesrat is required and one bill that can be approved without its approval. Both bills will be put to vote on the 10th of November in the Bundestag in second and third reading. The bill that does not require the consent of the Bundesrat contains the regulations about the Civil Union as a new legal instrument as well as all its implications for family and inheritance law. A smaller number of legal implications will be regulated by the bill that requires Bundesrat consent. We ask the CDU/CSU and FDP not to block these legal implications of the Civil Union bill, but to engage in serious discussions to create reasonable solutions for same-sex couples. 2

3 Press Release issued by the CDU/CSU No: Date: Klaeden welcomes disclosure of nuclear programme of North Korea Following the disclosure of the nuclear programme of North Korea today and the subsequent abolition of US sanctions by US President Bush, the spokesman for foreign policy, Eckart von Klaeden, declares: The disclosure of the nuclear programme of North Korea was due for six months, but it is nevertheless a step in the right direction towards full deconstruction of its nuclear programme. It has to be emphasized that US President Bush has immeadiately reacted to this signal by abolishing US sanctions against North Korea and by being ready to remove North Korea from the list of terror states. The leadership in Pyongyang has gone a first important step on the long way of returning to the international community of states. This success would have not been possible without the common efforts by the US and China. The succesful termination of the second North Korea crisis is a lasting achievement of the outgoing Bush administration and shows that the US are are willing to engage in multilateral actions if these are promising and effective. We encourage China to continue this common American-Chinese success by clearly adopting positions and taking actions agains Teheran. It would thereby be possible that the progress in East Asia would have positive implications for the conflict about the nuclear programme of Iran. 3

4 Figure A.1: Diversity in issue attention over time (a) SPD-GREENS Coalition (b) CDU/CSU-SPD Coalition (c) CDU/CSU-FDP Coalition GREENS SPD 0 CDU SPD 0 CDU FDP Environment Employment/Social International Economy Employment/Social Family Economy Legal affairs Family 4

5 Figure A.2: Issue attention over time (a) Economy (b) Environment 5

6 Table A.1: Composition of German governments from 2000 until 2010 Cabinet Start Election Parties Seats Cabinet posts Schröder I SPD 298 (44.5%) 13 (81.2%) (SPD) Greens 47 (7.0%) 3 (18.8%) Schröder II SPD 251 (41.6%) 11 (78.6%) (SPD) Greens 55 (9.1%) 3 (21.4%) Merkel I CDU 180 (29.3%) 5 (33.3%) (CDU) CSU 46 (7.5%) 2 (12.5%) SPD 222 (36.2%) 8 (53.3%) Merkel II CDU 194 (31.2%) 8 (50.0%) (CDU) CSU 45 (7.2%) 3 (18.75%) FDP 93 (15.0%) 5 (31.25%) 6

7 Table A.2: Press releases by all analyzed parties Year CDU/CSU FDP Greens SPD Total ,107 2, , , , ,045 3, , , ,372 1, ,174 4, , ,281 1,166 4, , , , , , , ,039 1,015 1,346 1,409 4, ,052 1,164 3, ,519 1,709 4,802 Total 12,185 8,253 12,227 12,292 44,957 7

8 Table A.3: Issue Areas and Bundestag Committees Issue Area identified by text analysis European Union Budget Culture/Media Defence Development aid Economy Education/Research Environment/Nuclear safety Finance Agriculture/Consumers/Food Health Labour/Social Legal affairs Family Equal opportunities Infrastructure/Transport Municipalities Defence/Internal security Defence/Internal security Energy Energy International International Bundestag Committee Perfectly matched Affairs of the European Union Budget Cultural and Media Affairs Defence Economic Cooperation and Development Economics and Technology Education, Research and Technology Assessment Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Finance Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection Health Labour and Social Affairs Legal Affairs One committee, several issue areas Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth Transport, Building and Urban Development Transport, Building and Urban Development One issue area, several committees Defence Internal affairs Economy Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Foreign Affairs Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid Issue area without associated committee Länder - Committee without associated issue area - Petitions - Scrutiny of Elections - Sports - Tourism 8

9 Table A.4: Time-series cross-section regression analysis DV: Issue attention diversity (t 0 ) Model 3 Model 4 Explanatory variables Number of months until next national election (0.054) (0.056) Number of months until next national election (squared) (0.001) (0.001) Control variables Pre-electoral conflict (0.013) (0.013) EP election (0.345) (0.347) State election (0.115) (0.116) Voter issue attention (0.009) (0.009) Unemployment *** (0.038) (0.061) BSE crisis (0.211) (0.206) CDU funding scandal (0.398) (0.416) 9/11 Terror attacks * (0.305) (0.313) Afghanistan War (0.436) (0.425) Flood.... Worldcup.... Economic crisis (0.211) (0.281) CDU/CSU-SPD coalition (0.174) CDU/CSU-FDP coalition (0.372) Issue attention diversity (t 1 ) (0.041) (0.041) Constant ** *** N R ***p 0.01,**p 0.05,*p 0.10; Standard errors in parentheses; Issue area fixed effects not reported 9

10 Table A.5: Average length of Press Releases Chancellor Role Party Average PR length (words) Schröder I Schröder II Merkel I Merkel II In Coalition Opposition In Coalition Opposition In Coalition Opposition In Coalition Opposition SPD GRUNEN CDU FDP SPD GRUNEN CDU/CSU FDP CDU/CSU SPD FDP GRUNEN CDU/CSU FDP GRUNEN SPD

11 Table A.6: Aggregated Analysis explaining taxi cab distance DV: Taxi Cab Distance Model 5 Explanatory variables Number of months until next national election ** (0.005) Number of months until next national election (squared) *** (0.000) Control variables EP election (0.110) State election (0.035) Unemployment (0.016) BSE crisis (0.093) CDU funding scandal (0.068) 9/11 Terror attacks (0.116) Afghanistan War (0.124) Flood (0.158) Worldcup (0.109) Economic crisis (0.066) CDU/CSU-SPD coalition (0.042) CDU/CSU-FDP coalition (0.092) Issue attention diversity (t- 1 ) (0.055) Constant *** (0.197) N 131 R ***p 0.01,**p 0.05,*p 0.10; Standard errors in parentheses 11

12 Table A.7: Beta regression DV: Issue attention diversity (t 0 ) Model 6 Explanatory variables Number of months until next national election *** (0.006) Number of months until next national election (squared) 0.000*** (0.000) Control variables EP election (0.130) State election * (0.043) Voter issue attention 0.002** (0.001) Unemployment ** (0.019) BSE crisis (0.112) CDU funding scandal (0.081) 9/11 Terror attacks 0.254* (0.131) Afghanistan War * (0.141) Flood (0.189) Worldcup (0.127) Economic crisis -.150* (0.079) CDU/CSU-SPD coalition 0.113** (0.049) CDU/CSU-FDP coalition (0.110) Issue attention diversity (t- 1 ) 1.520*** (0.251) Constant *** (0.238) Ln(phi) 3.488*** (0.031) N 2374 ***p 0.01,**p 0.05,*p 0.10; Standard errors in parentheses 12

13 Table A.8: Top 10 key terms per issue area Infrastructure/Transport Economy Education/Research Environment/Nuclear safety Energy new firm education climate protection energy east medium-sized businesses research environment renewable state company university sustainable energy policy competition small research policy nature conservation extension modern tax science environment policy climate protection construction medium education policy development share old employers federal nuclear safety cost transport economic policy innovation ecological worldwide buildup job state national technological election competition profession target usage Defence/Internal security Legal affairs Finance Employment/Social European Union army political union job europe soldier decision finance policy unemployed union intervention right tax reform job market european policy security policy wide burg employment policy commission defence policy internet poss social policy council inner possible tax social common military green ready employed member state task ready legal policy employer affair necessary big reform employ country jung supreme court rejected reform treaty Agriculture/Consumers/Food Equal opportunities International Länder Culture agriculture woman international land culture consumption man human rights federal media consumer protection family humanitarian federal land media nutrition senior aid university cultural genetic technology violence country shared working group consumers profession nation responsibility occasion agricultural policy group united condition diversity farmer voluntary usa ready internet consumer policy young worldwide prime minister federation product reconcile foreign policy construction foundation Municipalities Health Development aid Budget Family municipality human economy euro child municipal young development budget family city disabled cooperation high parents local old economic policy federal budget familicy policy local policy live insufficient approx childcare pet society development aid federal extension bund affected growth additional expenditure senior taks social freedom means woman cost right political budget committee better locality health burocratic budget policy profession 13