POSC 320: Authoritarianism and Democratization in the Middle East. Carleton College - Spring 2018

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1 POSC 320: Authoritarianism and Democratization in the Middle East Instructor: Hicham Bou Nassif Office: Willis Hall 408 Carleton College - Spring 2018 Office hours: Monday and Wednesday 11:00 am - 13:00 pm; and by appointment. Course Description Is Islam compatible with Democracy? Is oil a blessing for the population at large or for ruling autocrats? Why did Latin America and Eastern Europe democratize but not the Arab world? These are some questions which we will be debating this term. The course will be divided into two sections: the first will cover the main theoretical perspectives explaining the persistence of authoritarian rule in the Middle East and beyond (i.e. the cultural approach centered on Islam; the structural approach centered on Oil; and the institutional approach centered on civil-military relations and repressive apparatuses). The second section will be devoted to authoritarianism breakdown and the events of the Arab Spring with a special emphasis on Egypt and Syria. Overall, the course has three main goals: 1) To offer students the opportunity to become more conversant with the debates relating to authoritarianism and democracy in the Middle East and beyond. 2) To sharpen students analytical and writing skills. 3) To heighten students understanding of Middle Eastern politics and, by introducing them to the current events of the Middle East, encourage them to develop their own ideas on the matter. Required Texts Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masood and Andrew Reynolds. The Arab Spring: Pathways of Repression and Reform. New York: Oxford University Press Tarek Masoud. Counting Islam. Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt. New York: Cambridge University Press Craig Parson. How To Map Arguments in Political Science. New York: Oxford University Press Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan. Why Civil Resistance Works. The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Action. New York: Columbia University Press Joseph Sassoon, Anatomy of Authoritarianism in Arab Republics, Joseph Sassoon, Saddam Hussein Ba th Party, 2011.

2 Course Requirements Class Participation (25% of your final grade) Students are expected to participate actively in the class. I will be asking you to contribute to class discussions and will invite you to offer your opinion on required readings or on related events unfolding as the course goes on. Mid-term (25 % of your final grade) The Mid-term will be divided into two parts: 1) A series of questions to which you will be expected to reply with short answers. The questions will cover all the material discussed in class from the first lecture to the last. 2) An essay you will be asked to write and which will test your ability to think critically on the material we covered. For instance, you might be asked to discuss the main arguments of the cultural approach to democratization in the Middle East and explain why you agree with it or not. Reading the material and notes in class is indispensable to do well in the exam, but it takes more than just that. You must demonstrate an ability to reflect analytically on the topic and express your own opinions and ideas. You will only be responsible for the required reading; recommended readings are for your own intellectual curiosity. Class presentation (10 % of your final grade) Each participant will present her or his final project in class prior to writing the final paper. Term Paper (40% of your final grade) Students are encouraged to think early on of a topic they would like to work on and to discuss it with the instructor. What is expected of you as you do the readings? The readings assigned for the course deal with the most fundamental challenges facing the Middle East today. As you read, you will be expected to think critically on the articles by asking yourselves the following questions: 1) What is the author s main argument? 2) Do I find that argument convincing or not? Why? 3) What alternative explanations can be thought of for the author s evidence? 4) What are the implications of the argument made by the author?

3 In addition to the required readings, you are encouraged to keep yourself informed about current issues related to Middle Eastern politics. Consulting newspapers helps a great deal, namely national newspapers following closely Middle Eastern events such as The New York Times, The International Herald Tribune, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. You can also read magazines such as The Economist and Newsweek. Two flagship academic journals are particularly important in the field of Middle Eastern politics, namely, International Journal of Middle Eastern Studies (IJMES) and Middle East Journal. Also, keep an eye on the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP). Monday, March 26: Introduction Reading assignments We will discuss the Syllabus in class. Wednesday, March 28: The Cultural Approach to Authoritarianism and Democracy Required reading Craig Parsons, Mapping argument in Political Science (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007). Chapter 4. Elie Kedourie, Democracy and Arab Political Culture, (Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1992). Introduction (pp 1 11) Steven Fish: Islam and authoritarianism. World Politics 55.October Mark Tessler: Islam and Democracy in the Middle East: The impact of Religious Orientations on Attitudes toward Democracy in Four Arab Countries. Comparative Politics 34. N Recommended reading Stefan Voight. Islam and the Institution of a Free Society. Independent Review 10, n Martin Kramer. Islam vs. Democracy. Commentary 95. January P.J.Vatikiotis. Islam and the State. New York: Croom Helm Monday, April 2: The Structural Approach to Authoritarianism and Democracy Required reading Craig Parsons, Mapping argument in Political Science (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007). Chapter 2. Michael Ross, Does Oil Hinder Democracy. World Politics 53. N

4 Lisa Anderson, The State in the Middle East and North Africa. Comparative Politics, 20 October Recommended reading: Larry Diamond: Why are there no Arab Democracies. Journal of Democracy. N 21/ Marcus Noland: Explaining Middle Eastern Authoritarianism. Institute for International Economic. Working Paper series. June Pete Moore. Doing Business in the Middle East. New York: Cambridge University Press Stephen King, Liberalization against Democracy. Bloomington: Indiana University Press Shafeeq Ghabra Kuwait and the Dynamics of Socio-Economic Change, Middle East Journal. Summer Jill Crystal. Oil and Politics in the Gulf. New York: Cambridge University Press Giacomo Luciani. Allocation vs. Production States in Giacomo Luciani, ed. The Arab State. Berkley: University of California Press Hazem Beblawi and Giacomo Luciani eds.the Rentier State in the Arab World.London: Croom Helm Wednesday, April 4: The Institutional Approach to Authoritarianism and Democracy (1) Required reading: Craig Parsons, Mapping argument in Political Science (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007). Chapter 3. Eva Bellin. The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East. Comparative Politics. January Eva Bellin. Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East. Comparative Politics. January James Quinlivan. Coup Proofing: Its Practice and Consequence in the Middle East, International Security, (1999). Michael Eisenstadt: Syria s Defense Companies: Profile of a Praetorian Unit. (Unpublished paper 1984). Recommended reading: Elizabeth Picard: Arab Military in Politics: from Revolutionary Plot to Authoritarian State in G.Luciani.The Arab State.1990.

5 Monday, April 9: The Institutional Approach to Authoritarianism and Democracy (2) Required Reading: Roger Owen. The Rise and fall of Arab Presidents for Life, (Chapter 2: The origins of the presidential security state and chapter 3: basic components of the regimes). Joseph Sassoon, Anatomy of Authoritarianism in Arab Republics, (Chapter 3: The military; and Chapter 4: The Role of security services in Arab republics). Joseph Sassoon, Saddam Hussein Ba th Party, (Chapter 3: Security Organizations during the Baath Era; and Chapter 4: The Ba th and the Army). N.Messari. The Sate and Dilemmas of Security: the Middle East and the Balkans. Security Dialogue. Vol 33. N T.Gongora: War Making and State Power in the Contemporary Middle East, International Journal of Middle East Studies. N Samer Soliman: The Autumn of dictatorship. Fiscal crisis and Political Change in Egypt under Mubarak. Stanford: Stanford University Press (Chapter 2: Changes in the Distribution of State expenditures: Security Prevails). Eva Bellin Coercive Institutions and Coercive Leaders. In Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michelle Penner Angrist eds. Authoritarianism in the Middle East. Regimes and Resistance. Boulder: Lynne Reiner Risa Brooks. Political Military Relations and the Stability of Arab Regimes. International Institute for Strategic Studies. Adelphi paper Wednesday April 11: Theories of Authoritarianism Breakdown (1): Nonviolence in action Required Reading Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan. Why Civil Resistance Works. The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Action. New York: Columbia University Press (Chapter 1, 2 and 3)

6 Sharon Erickson Nepstad. Nonviolent Revolutions. Civil Resistance in the Late 20 th Century. New York: Oxford University Press Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth: Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. New York: Columbia University Press (Chapters 4 and 5). Monday April 16: Theories of Authoritarian Breakdown (2): The Militaries Role Required Reading Holger Albrecht and Dorothy Ohl, Exit, Resistance, Loyalty: Military Behavior during Unrest in Authoritarian Regimes, Perspectives on Politics, (2016). Hicham Bou Nassif. Generals And Autocrats: How coup-proofing predetermined the Military elite s Behavior in the 2011 Arab Spring. Political Science Quarterly, (2015). David Pion-Berlin et al. Staying Quartered: Civilian Uprisings and Military Disobedience in the Twenty First Century, Comparative Political Studies, (2012) Terence Lee. The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia. Comparative Political Studies, (2009). Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and Alastair Smith. The Dictator s Handbook. Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics. New York: Public Affairs (Chapter 1). Wednesday, April 18: The 2011 Arab Spring, an Introduction (1) In-class screening and discussion of the award-winning documentary The Square on the Egyptian uprising. Monday, April 23: The 2011 Arab Spring, an Introduction (2) Required Reading Human Rights Watch, Syria Unmasked, 1991, Chapter 5: Prisons and Torture, pp Salwa Ismail, The Egyptian Revolution Against the Police, Social Research, Vol 79: No2, summer 2012.

7 Steven Hyedemann (edr), Networks of Privileges in the Middle East, Chapter 2 John Sfakianakis, The Whales of the Nile: Networks, Businessmen, and Bureaucrats During the Era of Privatization in Egypt, pp Bahgat Korany and Rabab El-Mahdi (eds). Arab Spring in Egypt, Revolution and Beyond. Cairo: The American University of Cairo Press Chapter 2 Concentrated Power Breeds Corruption, Repression, and Resistance, pp Bahgat Korany and Rabab El-Mahdi (eds). Arab Spring in Egypt, Revolution and Beyond. Cairo: The American University of Cairo Press Chapter 3 The Political Economy of Mubarak s Fall, pp Gregory Gause III. Why Middle East studies missed the Arab Spring: The myth of authoritarian stability. Foreign Affairs. July/August Tarek Massoud. Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Road to and From Liberation Square. Journal of Democracy. July Volume 22. Number 4. Paul Amar: Why Mubarak is out? Jadaliya. February Philip Howard and Muzammil Hussein: The upheavals in Egypt and Tunisia: The Role of the Digital Media. Journal of Democracy. Volume 22. Number 3. July Joshua Stacher, Adaptable Autocrats. Regime Power in Egypt and Syria. (Stanford: Stanford University Press. 2012). Ala Aswani. On the State of Egypt: What made the revolution inevitable. New York: Vintage Marc Lynch, Blake Hounshell and Susan Glasser (eds). Revolution in the Arab world: Egypt, Tunisia and the unmaking of an era. Washington: Foreign Policy Magazine (Special Issue) Wednesday, April 25: Review session Monday, April 30: Mid-Term Break. I will be available in my office all day should you need to see me for additional questions.

8 Wednesday, May 2: Mid-Term Monday, May 7: The 2001 Arab Spring, and Introduction (3) Documentary screening+class discussion Wednesday, May 9: Post-Arab Spring Challenges 1: The Military in Egypt Required Reading Yezid Sayigh, Above the State: The Officers Republic in Egypt, (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 2012), Hazem Kandil, Soldiers, Spies and Statesmen: Egypt s Road to Revolt. London: Verso, (Chapters 2, 3 and 4) Hicham Bou Nassif, Coups and Nascent Democracies: The Military and Egypt s failed Consolidation, Democratization, (2016) Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynolds, The Arab Spring, pp Hazem Kandil, Soldiers, Spies and Statesmen: Egypt s Road to Revolt. London: Verso, (Chapter 5). Monday, May 14: Post-Arab Spring Challenges 2: The Muslim Brothers in Egypt Required reading Hazem Kandil, Inside the Brotherhood, London: Polity Press, 2014, (Chapters 1, 3 and 4) Carrie Rosefsky Wikham, The Muslim Brotherhood. Evolution of an Islamic Movement. Princeton: Princeton University Press (Chapters 1, 2) Tarek Masood. Counting Islam. Religion, Class, and Elections in Egypt. New York: Cambridge University Press pp and Recommended reading:

9 Carrie Rosefsky Wikham, The Muslim Brotherhood. Evolution of an Islamic Movement. Princeton: Princeton University Press (Chapter 3, 4, 8 and 9) Hazem Kandil, Inside the Brotherhood, London: Polity Press, 2014, (Chapters 2 and 5) Wednesday, May 16: Post Arab Spring Challenges 3: The Civil War in Syria Required reading: Hicham Bou Nassif, Second Class: The Grievances of Sunni Officers in the Syrian Armed Forces, The Journal of Strategic Studies, June Raymond Hinnebusch. Syria: From authoritarian upgrading to revolution. International Affairs International Crisis Group: Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East: The Syrian Regime s slow-motion suicide. ICG report N 109 July Peter Harling and Sarah Birke. Beyond the fall of the Syrian Regime. Middle East Research and Information Project Recommended reading: Stephen Starr: Revolt in Syria. Eye-Witness to the Uprising. New York: Columbia University Press (Chapters 1and 2). Jeffrey White: Asad s Armed Opposition: The Free Syrian Army. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Policy Watch # November 30 th, International Crisis Group: Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria s Dynamics. ICG Report N 31: November Tony Badran: How Assad stayed in power And how he will try to keep it Foreign Affairs Monday, May 21: Presentations and discussion Wednesday, May 23: Presentations and class discussion Monday, May 28: Presentations and class discussion