Relations With Other Official Institutions. Ľudovít Ódor

Transcription

1 Relations With Other Official Institutions Ľudovít Ódor

2 Motivation (1) Politics is often a zero sum game Fiscal councils can not stay completely outside the political arena (politicians and the media use our outputs) Marking your territory in the first years of existence is crucial (it is hard to start again!) The 3 most important things: - legislation (defines how far you can go) - time (set up processes before you first upset the minister!) - personalities (credibility also depends on communication) 2

3 Motivation (2) Fiscal councils need a lot of data Informal communication is necessary (civil servant level) Effective management of conflicts is important 3

4 Access to data (1) FCs need as strong legal backing as possible CBR s right to receive data is embedded in the constitutional act on fiscal responsibility. On the other hand the formulation is rather general. Our key principle 1: get access to all possible data sources directly (not via the ministry of finance) Key principle 2: build a strong micro dataset Relevant data + state-of-the-art methodology = less role for judgements 4

5 Access to data (2) Important datasets: - Daily/monthly data on budget execution (State Treasury) - Budget information system (MoF) - Tax revenue and social security contributions (individual data) - National accounts data public sector (individual data) - Pension database (individual data) - Health insurance database (individual data) Memoranda of Understanding: - Statistical office - National audit office 5

6 Access to data (3) Formal agreement with the Institute of Financial Policy (IFP) and the central bank on exchange of information (technical level) Access to the central bank s macro database Liquidity management data SK-SILC (individual) Private sector wage database (TREXIMA) CBR is involved also in shaping the data environment (SK-SILC, net worth, etc.) 6

7 Formal and informal communication (1) Informal Formal Central bank Other ministries Analytical staff of ministries MoF Other public bodies Parliament International institutions 7

8 Formal and informal communication (2) High degree of political consensus from the beginning: all relevant political parties involved Politicians hate surprises: access to CBR s documents at least 48 hours before release Mainly for fact-checking, no major wording suggestions accepted (reciprocity) Frequent informal meetings between the chairman and the minister of finance Analytical hub: CBR, the central bank and the IFP 8

9 Formal and informal communication (3) Very detailed analysis of the budget for the EC, IMF and OECD Institutions responsible for data collection like if somebody uses their numbers; however they usually require formal links Informal EU IFI network Advisory Panel 9

10 Conflict management (1) Conflicts are inevitable Try not to be too defensive from the beginning Bark loudly when the problem is big; do not bark with the same intensity every year (use also carrots not only sticks) Messages via international organizations can be very helpful (and they usually have to say something smart) Avoid normative comments 10

11 Conflict management (2) Evaluate your own risk analysis ex-post (and communicate it) Never use the name of politicians in your answer to questions in the media Communicate a lot with the highest ranking technocrats informally Defense your position with data and state-of-theart methodology only Do not comment on analytical work of the ministry; present your figures/approaches instead 11

12 Conclusions Do not uderestimate the role of the initial legislation The first 2 years are crucial in building your credibility Data, data, data Communicate at the level of civil servants as much as possible 12

13 Thank you for Your attention! 13