Why Do Revolutions Succeed? The Role of Rational Choice in the Chinese Communist Revolution

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1 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) Why Do Revolutions Succeed? The Role of Rational Choice in the Chinese Communist Revolution Terry Sicular Dept. Economics, University of Western Ontario, Canada ( Abstract This paper examines the relevance of rational choice to the Chinese Communist revolution. Drawing on the extensive China literature, it outlines the context for and gives a chronological overview of the Chinese revolution. The rational choice approach is applicable in many but not all regards. The Chinese case demonstrates the importance of developing models of revolution that emphasize probabilistic outcomes, allow for heterogeneity of agents, give a central place to public finance, analyse the behaviour of the revolutionary group, and examine the uniqueness and stability of equilibria. JEL Classification D71, P16, P26, N45, N95 Keywords China, revolution, rational choice, economic history 1. Introduction Why do revolutions succeed? One view is that the success of revolutions is the result of individual rational choice. Revolutions succeed when a large enough number of individuals choose to support the revolution because their expected benefits outweigh expected costs. This way of thinking has considerable appeal. Revolutions require the participation of individuals, and individuals at least to some degree act on the basis of self interest. Yet exactly what aspects of self interest matter, in what way, and to what degree? Here I investigate the questions of how, in what way, and to what degree individual rational choice explains the success of revolution by analysing the case of the Chinese Communist revolution. The Chinese Communist revolution ranks among the major revolutions of the twentieth century. Started in the 1920s by a small, urban-based revolutionary group, by the late 1940s the Chinese Communist Party led a rural-based revolutionary movement that was able to defeat the 2004 Accedo Verlagsgesellschaft, Munchen. ISBN ISSN

2 226 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) ruling government and claim power. This achievement involved large numbers of people over a wide geographic area, with dramatic consequences for China s social, political, and economic institutions. The Chinese case established a model for revolutionary movements elsewhere. The literature on the Chinese Communist revolution raises various explanations for the Communists success. Some of these explanations are consistent with individual rational choice; others are not. Research in Chinese local history and politics, much fairly recent, provides interesting details on the nature of local institutions and the behaviour of local actors. This research sheds light on the particular ways in which rational choice did and did not explain the outcome. I begin, then, with a review of the relevant literature on the Chinese revolution. This review is informed by and related to rational choice models of revolution. The first sections of the paper discuss the historical context, give a brief chronological overview of the revolution, and review explanations for the Communist success. These sections show that the Chinese revolution arose in a disequilibrium setting and in a context without a strong, established ruler or ruling party. Furthermore, the path of the Communist revolution was extremely uneven over time and across geographic regions. These and other features of the Chinese revolution raise questions about standard explanationsbrelative deprivation, economic distress, and oppression of peasantsbfor the success of the Communists. The discussion of China provides a context for reexamination of the rational theory of revolution. The theoretical literature on revolution is extensive and often refers to specific cases, most often the Russian and French revolutions. Various authors examine China [e.g., Grossman (1991), Moore (1966), Skocpol (1979), Wolf (1969)], but the discussion of the Chinese revolution is in some cases superficial, and in other cases lacks the information on institutions and actors that has become available in recent years. One goal of this paper is to bring a fuller account of the Chinese revolution to bear on the theory of revolution. So as to address the specific questions of which aspects of self-interest matter and in what way, I focus on particular models of revolution. I use the Grossman (1991) model of insurrection as a starting point for this discussion. The Grossman formulation, while it has some drawbacks, is straightforward and contains many of the basic elements of rational choice models of revolution. It is an equilibrium model in which the solution is the outcome of individual decisions by maximizing agents. The agents include the ruler or ruling group and a population of homogeneous peasants. The utility of these agents depends on the levels of rents or taxes, output, and wages, and on whether or not the ruler is overthrown. The comparison of this general formulation to the Chinese case yields some lessons for theorizing about revolution. First, it reveals the central, yet in some

3 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? 227 ways complex, role of public finance in determining the outcome of revolutions. Second, it reveals the importance of the revolutionary group and thus the need to model explicitly the behaviour of the revolutionaries. Third, it demonstrates the importance of heterogeneity among the agents on whose support the revolutionaries and rulers depend. Finally, the Chinese case highlights the need for probabilistic approaches and for close attention to the nature of equilibrium. 2. The Chinese Communist revolution: context 1 The Chinese Communist revolution arose during a long period of political, economic and social upheaval in China. In the nineteenth century China experienced multiple insurrections of various shapes and sizes involving millions of people and most regions of the country [Chesneaux (1973), Perry (1980), Little (1989), Wolf (1969)]. Perhaps the largest was the Taiping Rebellion ( ), during which a rival dynasty was established in Nanjing that, for a period, controlled several major provinces in southern and central China. Other insurrections, to name a few, included the Nien revolt ( ) in North China, Muslim rebellions in Yunnan and northwest China (1850s 1870s), the Miao rebellion in Guizhou ( ), and the Red Band revolt in Sichuan (1860). Notably, all these rebellions were rural-based. External forces were an important contributor to instability at this time. The nineteenth century saw the opening of China to the West, accomplished largely by invasion and force. Following China s defeat in the Opium Wars, China was required under the Treaty of Nanking (1842) to open its major cities to foreigners and to cede Hong Kong to Britain. Soon after, military defeats by the British and French led to further concessions. Additional losses of sovereignty and territory, including China s loss of Manchuria to Japan following the Sino-Japanese war of , continued into the twentieth century. The incursion of foreign powers raised unsettling questions about China s traditional institutions and culture. China had seen itself as the centre of the world, the Middle Kingdom, with a superior culture and civilization. Other countries had historically held tributary relations with China. Now China had suffered defeat and made concessions to other countries. These developments led to the reevaluation of traditional institutions and prompted change. Efforts at reform began toward the end of the Qing dynasty and continued under the Republican government. The reforms included the abandonment of China s system of classical education and its replacement by Western-style schools that taught 1 This section draws largely from Bianco (1971) and Spence (1999).

4 228 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) scientific subjects; the switch from classical Chinese to vernacular as the major form of official and literary written communication; and reforms of the bureaucracy such as the abandonment of the traditional examination system. Social values also evolved, and traditional hierarchical views regarding the relationship of children to parents, of men to women, and of peasants to elites began to erode. The combination of internal rebellion and external incursion contributed to the downfall in 1911 of the Qing government. Its successor, the Guomindang (GMD) or Nationalist Party, established the Republic of China. The Nationalists never achieved a sustained hold on power. Most of the Nationalist period consisted of efforts to unify China, resist the Japanese invaders, and fight off the Communist challenge. Initially the Nationalist government controlled only two or three provincesbother regions were controlled by local warlords. In the early 1920s the GMD began to overcome its internal political divisions and strengthen its power. At this time the Nationalists approached Moscow for assistance and, with Soviet support, established a Bolshevik-style political organization and also a modern military academy (Whampoa) to strengthen its military capabilities. Chiang Kai-shek, who had studied in Moscow, was the first commandant of this academy. In the GMD set out to use its new military capabilities to defeat the warlord armies and unify China. On recommendation from the Soviets, this work was for a time carried out in alliance with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Communists trained alongside Nationalists at Whampoa, and the two groups fought together for unification. By 1927 partial unification was on the horizon, but at this point Chiang turned on the Communists, almost wiping them out. Regional warlords still challenged the government, however, and Nationalist efforts to unify the country continued through the next decade. By the late 1930s unification was largely achieved. In 1937 the Nationalists suffered a major setback. Japan invaded China proper (it already held Manchuria), driving the Nationalists inland and occupying China s major economic regions. The Sino-Japanese War ensued. During this war the Nationalists and Communists again joined forces to fight Japan. After the defeat of Japan by the Allies, the Communist-Nationalist alliance dissolved, and civil war followed. In 1949 the Communists won the civil war and, for the first time in more than a century, established a unified and strong political regime. In view of the above, one interpretation of the Communist revolution is that it was not a real revolution. The CCP did not overthrow a well-established government, but was simply a successful rival for political control following the fall of the Qing dynasty. Revolution can, however, be defined in other terms. Some define revolution as a change in power that involves revolutionary changes in socioeconomic relations. The Chinese revolution did lead to radical changes in

5 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? 229 socioeconomic institutions after Prior to 1949 the CCP s programme was less revolutionary, as the party moderated its approach in order to gain broader support. 3. The Chinese Communist revolution: a chronology 2 The Communists followed a long, uneven road to power. Most observers would probably agree that their success was unclear until the late 1940s and depended, to a greater or lesser degree, on exogenous factors. Johnson (1962, p. 6) describes the situation as follows: If one were to make a diagram of the fortunes of the Communist Party of China in terms of its popular following, the result would be an undulating line. Starting with the Party s foundation in 1921, a slowly ascending curve rises to 1927; then, with the Nationalist-Communist split and the Kuomintang s purge of the Communists, the line descends precipitously. Next comes the ascent from approximately 1929 to 1934, representing the growth of the Jiangxi Soviet, followed by the sharp dive when the victorious Kuomindang armies drove the Communists from south China. Starting after the period of the Long March, the line begins again from the bottom of the graph, ascends slowly to the peak of 1940, dips sharply in 1941 and 1942 (recording the effect of the Japanese mopping up campaign) and then rises from an already fairly high level up and off the top of the page. The chronological overview that follows describes in more detail the Communists winding path to victory. Marxism only gained currency in China after the Bolshevik Revolution of The CCP was formally established in the early 1920s after Comintern agents sent by Lenin began to meet with receptive Chinese. These agents helped to establish a nucleus party, translate major works, and set up a Leninist organization. The first plenary meeting of the CCP was held in Initially Party membership remained small, urban-based, and largely limited to intellectuals. In 1923 the CCP had only about 300 members [Spence (1999), p. 316], as compared to China s total population of roughly 500 million. Initially the CCP was suppressed by the GMD government. Both sides, however, received aid and assistance from the USSR, and the Comintern strongly encouraged cooperation. In 1923 the two parties formed an uneasy alliance in order to pursue national unification and independence from foreign powers. While the long-term goals of the two parties differed, they shared the view that national 2 This section draws heavily from Bianco (1971), Spence (1999), and Esherick (1995).

6 230 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) unification and the elimination of foreign occupation were the first problems to address. Japan still occupied Manchuria and had been granted Shandong province by the Treaty of Versailles; foreign powers continued to hold concessions elsewhere. Much of the rest of China was under the control of rival warlords. The GMD-CCP alliance existed from 1923 to 1927, during which time the CCP was able to operate openly and increased its membership and influence. The Communists participated in the National Revolutionary Army led by Chiang Kai-shek, who launched the Northern Expedition, a military endeavour that made significant progress in the unification of southern and central China. Under the umbrella of the alliance, the CCP began to organize multiple, large labour unions in China s major cities. These unions held strikes in protest against local warlords and foreign concessions, and they aided the advance of the National Revolutionary Army. By late 1926 union membership in Wuhan, a major inland city, was listed as more than 80,000; in 1927 Shanghai union membership exceeded 800,000, and the Shanghai workers had organized a large, armed militia [Spence (1999), pp ]. In 1927 Chiang moved to strengthen his personal political power. He turned against the CCP and began a systematic, ruthless campaign to eliminate Communists and Communist sympathizers. Concurrently, he formed his own government in Nanjing, causing an internal split within the GMD, with left-leaning elements opposing and right-leaning elements supporting his actions. Chiang successfully suppressed left-leaning GMD groups and consolidated power in the territories under Nationalist control. The CCP was nearly wiped out. Using a combination of military campaigns and negotiated alliances with local warlords, Chiang continued efforts to unify China. By 1928 his control extended North to Peking and Tianjin and even beyond into Manchuria. The local warlord of Manchuria remained under Japanese control, but pledged loyalty to the Nationalist government. Meanwhile, the Communists became fugitives and retreated to inaccessible mountainous regions in southern China. The CCP had begun working in rural areas in the early 1920s [Spence (1999), Hofheinz (1969)], and now it shifted almost entirely to a rural-based strategy. In view of its change in fortunes, it also turned away from its earlier, largely political approach to one that was heavily military. At this time the CCP established several Communist base areas in which it set up governmental functions. The best known of these bases is the Jiangxi Soviet led by Mao Zedong, but at least a dozen bases were established elsewhere in the general region. Here the CCP began to study closely local socio-economic conditions and to experiment with social and economic reforms. It found that local socioeconomic relations were complex and class divisions unclear. Under these conditions, and in view of the need to consolidate support from local residents,

7 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? 231 Mao put aside plans for radical land redistribution and other reforms and adopted moderate policies that did not alienate important groups, in particular, wealthier peasants [Spence (1999), pp ]. During this period Communist strength recovered somewhat due to local recruitment and defections from leftleaning elements of the GMD. Throughout this period the Guomindang continued to pursue the Communists. In the early 1930s it appeared to achieve success. With German assistance, the GMD developed a military strategy that enabled it to encircle and blockade the Communist base areas. The situation became increasingly difficult for the Communists, who ultimately abandoned their bases and attempted an escape. In October1934 began the legendary Long March, a year-long trek over nearly 3,000 miles of difficult terrain. During the Long March the Communists suffered ongoing attacks and substantial losses. Roughly 80,000 began the Long March; fewer than 10,000 of those who originally started completed the march [Spence (1999), p. 402; Esherick (1995), p. 59]. Tens of thousands of troops and sympathizers who had remained behind in the base areas were eliminated by the GMD [Esherick (1995), p. 59]. After the Long March, the Communist remnants established new base areas in remote areas of northern China, the most well-known of which was Yan an. At this point CCP survival, let alone its ability to carry out successful revolution, was again uncertain. The fragility of the CCP situation is described by Esherick (1995, p. 53), who points out that in 1936 the Red Army troops numbered only about 20,000 and controlled only a few county seats; these troops were surrounded by more than 300,000 Guomindang and allied Northeast Army forces. In the view of some commentators [Johnson (1962)], the CCP s ability to recover and ultimately overcome the Nationalists was due to the Japanese. During the 1930s the Japanese had continued to extend their control of China, generating widespread anti-japanese sentiment. The GMD s record of resistance against the Japanese was uneven, and many viewed its efforts as insufficient [Bianco (1971); Johnson (1962)]. In contrast, the CCP took a strong anti-japanese stance, declaring war against Japan as early as 1932 and calling for an end to domestic infighting (i.e., GMD suppression of the Communists) and the formation of a united front against Japan. The Japanese invasion in 1937 shifted popular perceptions of the two parties, to the advantage of the Communists. Patriotic, anti-japanese sentiments are often cited as the cause of the Xi an Incident, which some believe was a key event that changed the fortunes of the Communists [Esherick (1995), p. 53]. In late 1936 Chiang Kai-shek was kidnapped in Xi an by Zhang Xueliang, a regional warlord who had allied himself with the GMD. Zhang had become increasingly dismayed with Chiang s instructions to eliminate northern Communist base areas in his region while the Japanese were extending their control of China. Zhang took Chiang hostage and

8 232 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) made several demands, including demands to broaden representation in the Nationalist government, allow more political freedom, and stop fighting the Communists. After Chiang s release, the GMD did not entirely drop its anti- Communist stance, but it altered its approach. It eased its attacks on Communist bases and was no longer so willing to appease Japan. This change in policy gave the Communists an opportunity to consolidate and recover [Spence (1999), pp ; Johnson (1962), p. 32]. Full-scale war between Japan and China broke out in By late 1938, Japan controlled not only Manchuria and North China, but also much of central and eastern China including the major cities of Peking, Tianjin, Shanghai, Nanjing and Canton. Thus the GMD quickly lost China s most economically developed regions, wherein lay almost all of China s industrial capacity. The GMD also suffered major casualtiesbas many as 250,000 troops were lost in the battle for Shanghai alone, and between 1937 and 1939 well over a million were lost overall [Spence (1999), pp. 423, 435]. In late 1938 the GMD abandoned eastern and central China and retreated inland to Chongqing. The Japanese occupation greatly altered the situation for the Communists. The GMD could no longer effectively pursue its anti-communist campaign. Furthermore, it recognized the need for CCP assistance in the anti-japanese effort. In late 1937 the GMD and CCP formed a united front against Japan, and the Red Army came under nominal Nationalist command [Spence (1999), p. 435]. The period of the Sino-Japanese War had ups and downs for the Communists, but overall was a period of growth. The Communists experienced military losses against the Japanese and, despite the alliance, continued to suffer attacks from the Nationalists. Nevertheless, they were able to consolidate and regenerate in the northern base areas. At this time they also began to move into many areas of North China nominally controlled by the Japanese. While Japan took steps to counter this infiltration, its military control was largely confined to cities and major transportation lines. As in the south, in the northern bases the CCP investigated local conditions and carried out social and economic reforms. Once again the CCP forsook more radical policies, in part as a condition of the united front agreement with the GMD. Here the CCP implemented policies providing rural credit, promoting rural industrial development, reducing land rents, and introducing a graded tax structure that made large holdings relatively uneconomical. Such an approach did not cause divisive class struggle and garnered fairly broad local support, although some Communists saw it as too conservative [Spence (1999), pp ]. These policies seemed suited to the North, where land distribution was relatively equal and where large, absentee landlords were few. By the time Japan surrendered in 1945, the CCP had 19 base areas that ex-

9 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? 233 tended across North China with a population of 95.5 million, 1.2 million Party members, troops of about one million, and a militia of more than 2.2 million [Bianco (1971); Spence (1999); Pepper (1999)]. GMD forces, following large losses during the war, numbered about 2.7 million [Spence (1999)]. 3 CCP membership had grown to million, up from about 40,000 in 1937 [Bianco (1971), Spence (1999); Esherick (1995), p. 60, however, writes that CCP membership was only a few thousand in 1937]. A land grab followed the Japanese surrender. The GMD and CCP both rushed to gain control of the former occupied areas so as to extend their control of territory and gain Japanese armaments. The scale of the occupation had been extremely large. Japan had controlled all of Manchuria and much of north, east and central China. More than two million Japanese troops, 1.75 million Japanese civilians, and large stockpiles of supplies and arms were still in place. The GMD tried to move quickly into key areas after the surrender, instructed the Japanese not to surrender to Communist forces, and ordered the CCP not to accept surrender from Japanese units. The US airlifted Nationalist troops to eastern and northern areas so that they could in fact accept surrender, and within three months most of China south of the Great Wall was under the GMD. [See Bianco (1971).] The CCP made similar efforts, although with less success. CCP control was largely confined to Manchuria, where it was assisted by the USSR, which had accepted Japanese surrender in that region. The Civil War began in At first the GMD had military superiority and regained most of China proper. Against the advice of US military advisors, it continued its campaign into Manchuria, where it took control of Manchuria s southern cities, although not the countryside. This effort overextended the GMD. In 1948 the CCP counterattacked and made substantial military gains in Manchuria and North China. In early 1949 the CCP took China s key northern cities, including Peking and Tianjin. In these offensives the GMD suffered significant losses of troops and equipment [Bianco (1971)]. The CCP armies then continued southward. Nanjing fell without a fight in April, Shanghai with little resistance in May, and Canton in October. On October 1, 1949, Mao announced the establishment of the People s Republic of China. 4. Why did the Communists succeed? Explanations for the Communists success are numerous. They generally empha- 3 Bianco (1971) says that GMD forces outnumbered CCP forces 4 to 1 and were better equipped than the CCP army. Regardless, the numerical advantage of the GMD was substantially less than it had been before the Japanese occupation.

10 234 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) size one or more of the following themes: (a) broad support from poor, oppressed peasants; (b) nationalism and the Japanese factor; (c) strong leadership, dedication, and effective organization of the CCP; (d) weakness and ineptitude of the GMD; and (e) historical accident. Some of these explanations are more convincing than others. I explore each in turn below and, where possible, identify connections with theories of revolution. 4.1 Economic conditions and peasant support The notion that the Communists were able to succeed because of their appeal to large numbers of oppressed peasants has undeniable attraction. Various authors point to China s extensive, dire poverty; unequal land ownership; increasing tenancy rates and landlessness; high land rents; and excessive and arbitrary rural taxes, surtaxes and assessments as factors underlying Communist support [Hofheinz (1969), p. 57; Bianco (1971), ch. 4; Spence (1999), pp ]. Not surprisingly, these factors figure prominently in the CCP s own analysis. Several considerations, however, raise questions about this explanation. First, even if economic factors did cause peasant dissatisfaction, and even if this dissatisfaction led to support of the Communists, the success of the Communist revolution does not automatically follow. Peasant rebellion and insurrection, in many cases arising out of similar economic concerns, had characterized China for over a century without bringing about a successful rural-based revolution. So why did this revolution succeed when prior rebellions had not? One possible explanation is that economic conditions had worsened. Views on this point differ, but several well-regarded recent studies argue that, in general, rural economic conditions in the1920s and 1930s were as good if not better than they had ever been [Rawski (1989), Brandt (1989)]. 4 Several studies also question the conventional characterization of rural China as having high and increasing levels of inequality and tenancy. Bianco (1971) writes that evidence can be found for and against deterioration in the economic situation, and trends were not uniform regionally. He concludes that change in economic conditions is not what made the difference, and that the success of the CCP was instead the result of its leadership and organization (p. 107, more on this below). Economic conditions did deteriorate in the 1940s, and it was during the 1940s that the Communists were finally able to consolidate their strength across large regions. One could perhaps argue, then, that the deteriorating economic situation at this time altered the rational choice of peasants and explains the success 4 See Little (1992) for a nice summary of the debate on economic trends in the Chinese rural economy during this period.

11 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? 235 of the Communists. Such an argument is superficial, however, as it does not explain the factors that caused the economic environment to change. These factors include the Japanese invasion and weak macroeconomic management by the Nationalists. Second, until quite late in the game the Communists did not achieve sustained or broad popular support. As discussed above, support for the CCP fluctuated and at times was extremely tenuous. Regional studies show that the CCP s support was geographically fairly limited and highly uneven [Saich (1994)]. Hofheinz (1969) provides a county-level mapping of CCP influence across China. His maps show a relatively narrow and shifting regional pattern of influence. Interestingly, the geographical patterns of Communist influence for the three periods , 1932, and show almost no overlap. Hofheinz remarks, It is almost as though once a Communist movement had been successfully developed in a particular area and then that movement was suppressed, the area became in some sense immune to further easy inroads by Communist organizers. [See Hofheinz (1969), p. 33.] Hofheinz compares the geographical pattern of Communist support to geographical differences in local socioeconomic conditions. The geographical patterns do not support the view that economic oppression was associated with Communist support or success. He uses patterns of land ownership and tenancy, which varied substantially among regions, as indicators of peasant oppression and class divisions and finds that the level of Communist influence was, if anything, negatively correlated with the degree of inequality in landholdings. Similarly, he does not find a straightforward relationship between local tenancy patterns and Communist influence. Hofheinz s conclusions are supported by other in-depth regional analyses, most of which find little regional correlation between the standard socioeconomic variables and Communist influence. If anything, it appears that the Communists had more success in areas with relatively low levels of inequality and relatively few large landlords. Such was the case in North China, where the Communists established their broadest regional control and from whence they ultimately won the revolution. What explains this unexpected regional pattern of support for the CCP? A recent study by Liu (2003) provides some clues. Liu conducted a careful study of the CCP s efforts in the Yangzi Delta and southern Jiangsu, relatively developed rural areas in eastern and coastal China. The Yangzi Delta had perhaps the highest tenancy rate (70% or higher) and highest rate of absentee landlords (90% of landlords lived in cities or towns) in China. Landlord-tenant relations were hostile. The CCP began to organize in this area in the late 1920s and led a series of peasant uprisings, all of which collapsed. After the formation of the united front against Japan in 1937, the CCP was able to establish a guerilla base in the area and organized local resistance against the Japanese. In this it was again ultimately

12 236 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) unsuccessful. In 1939/40 the CCP withdrew from the region and moved its forces to more hospitable areas in the North China plain. According to Liu, the key reason for the CCP s lack of success in the Yangzi Delta was its inability to gain access to material and human resources. In the Yangzi Delta it had difficulty finding army recruits because markets were well developed, economic opportunities were plentiful, and labourers could easily find wage employment. In this context, soldiering was not an attractive option for local workers. As a consequence, CCP armies in the area were made up almost entirely of outsiders. This hampered the army s ability to work closely and blend in with the local population. In contrast, soldiers in North China were largely local. Access to resources and revenues was also problematic. The CCP needed revenues to feed and pay its army and to support its operations. Typically, when the CCP established a regional base it would assume the functions of local government, including tax collection. An important source of revenue was the land tax. Payment of the land tax was the responsibility of the owner of the land. In areas where tenancy was common, the land tax was historically paid by landowners out of rent collections. Thus, rents and taxes were closely intertwined: if rents were not paid, neither were taxes. During the united front period the CCP pursued a general program of rent and tax reduction. This programme was adopted in the Yangzi Delta, where the CCP encouraged tenants to pay rent, albeit at reduced levels. Simultaneously, the CCP reduced land tax rates, in part to appease landowners who were collecting less rent. These policies, however, were not effective here. Initially the CCP asked tenants to pay the taxes directly to the Party and issued receipts that could be used to deduct the tax amounts from rents to be paid later to landlords. Tenants were not cooperative, as they had no guarantee that the landlords would honour the receipts. The CCP did not press tenants vigorously for tax payments, as doing so put it in the uncomfortable position of acting as rent collector. The CCP then turned to the landlords and tried to work with them to improve rent collection and thus tax payment. With the help of landowners, it organized rent collection committees. This meant relying on the old rural elite, which for the CCP had political drawbacks. This approach was also problematic because many landlords lived in Japanese-occupied cities and towns, where the CCP was unable to pursue them for tax payment. Such problems were less marked in North China, which was characterized by smallholder farming and where most land-owning households lived in the villages. Here taxes were historically collected within the village by local village officials. In North China the CCP set up cooperative village organizations that built upon preexisting local institutions and that, among other things, collected taxes.

13 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? 237 The relatively equal distribution of land and absence of large landlords not only made revenue collection easier, but also made it possible to carry out institutional reforms in village governance that helped consolidate CCP control. The CCP s experiences in the Yangzi Delta point to the importance of revenue collection to the CCP s regional operations and ultimately to its success against the GMD. According to some analysts, taxes were also important to the revolution because they were a more significant source of peasant grievances than class divisions and disputes between landlords and tenants [Saich (1994), p. 1003]. The story of revolution in China was, at least in part, a public finance story. In this regard it resembles revolutions elsewhere, although with different institutional particulars. 4.2 Nationalism and the Japanese factor Many studies of the Chinese revolution emphasize the role of the Japanese in explaining the success of the Communists [Spence (1999), Kataoka (1974)]. Japan helped the Communists in several ways. First, Japan s interventions generated strong, broad-based patriotic sentiments. The Nationalist government s inability or unwillingness to stand up to the Japanese undermined its legitimacy, just as the Qing dynasty s inability to ward off European nations and Japan had contributed to its demise. Through a combination of anti-japanese military actions and also by repeatedly calling for a united front against Japan, the Communists were able to take the moral high ground and so gain popular support and legitimacy. Second, the Japanese invasion provided the CCP with opportunities to expand its influence at the local level. Wou (1999) describes the CCP s work in the late 1930s organizing local militias to defend against the Japanese in northwestern Henan. The Japanese occupation and reports of atrocities prompted local communities to seek assistance from the CCP, which had a reputation for military skill. In establishing local militia, the CCP worked cooperatively with both local elites and peasants. The local gentry provided the resources to purchase arms and pay recruits; the peasants served as the troops. Third, Japan helped the Communists by weakening and diverting the GMD when it seemed just on the verge of wiping the Communists out. Fourth, Japan s defeat left a power vacuum through major regions of China and provided the CCP with the opportunity to broaden its geographical control. Fifth, Japanese actions and the Sino-Japanese war helped the CCP because it contributed to the economic distress of the 1940s. Kataoka (1974, p. 234) writes: Agricultural production and exchange began to decline in north China as the war be-

14 238 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) gan. Severe strain and destitution began to appear toward the end of 1939; mortgaging of land increased suddenly; subsidiary productions ceased as raw materials were used up; railroad rolling stock, brokers, and peddlers stopped circulating; periodic markets and market towns were practically dead; landlords demanded rent in produce; farm labourers went begging for jobs which could not be found; and consumption of salt declined to two-thirds of the pre-war level. Japanese investigators noted that the poor peasants had reached the limit of their lives. Guerrilla war, counter-guerrilla war, and increase in banditry were directly responsible for this state of affairs. If poverty was related to the revolution, therefore, the most massive poverty came with the revolution rather than as its precondition. For all these reasons, the Japan factor was important for the Communists. Yet while the Japan factor may explain Communist survival, it does not fully explain the Communist victory. As Pepper (1999, p. 433) writes, the Japanese presented both the CCP and GMD with the same opportunity. That is, the Japanese reduced the GMD s military advantage, but they did not win the war for the CCP. 4.3 Effectiveness of the CCP It is widely acknowledged that the CCP evolved into a highly effective organization, and that this contributed greatly to its success. Its effectiveness stemmed from the presence of a corps of highly committed revolutionaries and from its attention to party building and organization. Esherick (1995) writes that any explanation of the Communists success must address the extraordinary commitment of individual revolutionaries. This commitment was in part due to the fact that many of these individuals underwent experiences that changed forever the lives of the survivors [Esherick (1995), p. 60]. The CCP revolutionaries survived successive extermination campaigns from the GMD and, later, extremely harsh Japanese anti-communist attacks. The Long March was a particularly life-changing event. CCP members and sympathizers suffered years of political persecution; they operated underground in harsh conditions; and they saw many of their comrades arrested, imprisoned and executed. This experience altered the thinking of those who survived. It taught a stark lesson: if the survivors lost the revolution, they would lose everything. The mental transformation of individual revolutionaries was also the result of deliberate CCP methods to shape recruits. Those who joined the Communists initially may not have had strong commitment. Some joined for practical reasons, because joining the Red Army was the best economic opportunity available; others joined because of intellectual leanings. Once involved, they were psychologically moulded by the Party. Party members attended CCP meetings, received reeducation followed by ongoing political indoctrination, and were

15 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? 239 subject to party discipline. Those who showed dedication received praise and promotion. Those who did not were subject to struggle sessions, rectifications, and internal purges (some harsh). These methods winnowed out those of questionable commitment and served as a lesson to those who remained. The high commitment of individual revolutionaries was combined with an effective party organization [Esherick (1995), Kataoka (1974)]. Party documents from the period show clear attention to party building and organizational issues. The CCP adapted organizational methods from the USSR. Through trial and error, it developed effective work methods and mechanisms for developing popular support. Popular support was the result of hard work by the Party, which took great pains to design, carry out and demonstrate the benefits of tax and rent relief, mutual aid teams, defence against the Japanese, propaganda work, etc. Also, popular support reflected the Party s close attention to the behaviour of cadres and soldiers. CCP cadres were admonished to be honest and to forswear personal material gain. The army was to maintain strict discipline and behave in a manner that generated support of local populations. The old image of the Army as a mercenary corps serving the particular interests of an individual or a class was destroyed. It was replaced by a conception of the Army as a servant of national interestsban Army that was scrupulous about its relations with civilians [Johnson (1962), p. 81]. The Red Army did not loot or plunder; it paid for supplies and accommodation, helped farmers in the fields, and so on. 4.4 Ineptitude of GMD The effective methods and discipline of the CCP are often contrasted with the poor management and corruption of the GMD. While, like the CCP, the GMD adopted a Leninist party organization and developed an effective military force, it was unable, or perhaps unwilling, to enforce strict discipline and contain corruption. Military operations were not based on the notion of generating local support. The GMD military followed the traditional practices of forced conscription and compulsory borrowing of grain and other resources [Spence (1999), p. 447; Kataoka (1974), ch. 5]. The GMD was also known for the poor treatment and insufficient pay of its soldiers, which contributed to their inclination to loot and desert. Civil administration under the Nationalist government was problematic. In many regions local government was authoritarian and corrupt. Nationalist officials developed a reputation for ignoring formal laws and procedures to pursue private gain. Such behaviour hurt the GMD s reputation and benefited the Communists, who were known for their uncorrupt, disciplined cadres [Kataoka (1974), pp ]. The Nationalists acknowledged the need for, and at times

16 240 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) verbally championed, the idea of reform in government and civil administration, but they were unable to carry out such reform. One reason for this situation, and a difference with the Communists, is that the Nationalist regime did not gain significant control over local governance in its occupied areas. Typically, the Nationalist government worked with pre-existing provincial and local government structures. Spence (1999) points to this as one reason for the Nationalist s ongoing fiscal deficits. The GMD faced a narrow tax base because land taxes went to provincial authorities who were not controlled by the Guomindang (p. 348). Political mismanagement was accompanied by economic mismanagement. This became especially severe during the Sino-Japanese and Civil Wars [Kataoka (1974), chs. 4, 5]. During this period the Nationalist government relied extensively on inflationary finance. The Nationalist government faced severe fiscal shortages because of the loss to Japan of regions that had generated the major share of its revenues. The regime turned to the printing press to cover expenditures, with obvious implications for the price level. The rate of inflation increased from 18% in 1937 to more than 300% in 1942 [Spence (1999), p. 442]. Inflation worsened further during the Civil War, and hyperinflation characterized the late 1940s. The Nationalist government took steps to control inflation such as wage and price controls, currency reform, and the like, but these measures were carried out half-heartedly and the government continued to print money. High inflation hurt political groups such as the urban middle and upper classes that had provided key support for the GMD, and it eroded public confidence in the regime. A full recounting of the Nationalist government s incompetence is beyond the scope of this paper, but some additional examples include: frequent transgression of civil liberties guaranteed in the Constitution, including numerous instances of arrest, killing, and even assassination; extortionate exactions of taxes and fees from peasants (sometimes peasants were required to pay taxes for several decades in advance); the destruction of more than 4,000 villages and their crops, leading to widespread famine, following Chiang s 1938 order to blow up Yellow River dikes so as to slow the Japanese advance; lack of assistance to the tens of thousands of refugees living in terrible conditions, many of whom were supporters of the GMD fleeing from Communist-occupied areas; and the reliance on Japanese collaborators and general inability to establish political and economic order in areas regained from the Japanese. The cumulative effect of such actions (or inactions), especially when contrasted with the competence and discipline of the CCP, led many to switch allegiance.

17 T. Sicular: Why Do Revolutions Succeed? Historical accident The Communist revolution succeeded, some might argue, due to a series of fortuitous events. Luck was certainly an important factor in the survival of those who completed the Long March. The Japanese invasion, at least in its precise timing and initial form, was also to some extent a matter of luck. Spence (1999, p. 419) points out that the death by heart attack of an important Japanese commanding general in northern China, as well domestic politics leading to a change in government in Japan, were significant in explaining the shift in Japan s behaviour and affected the timing and unfolding of the invasion. As Esherick (1995, pp ) writes, Our search for the causes of the Chinese Revolution must acknowledge that however much socioeconomic structures formed the preconditions for revolution, the revolution itself was an extended historical process in which a series of contingent events interacted over time and space to constrain and ultimately determine the revolutionary outcome. 5. Rational choice and the Chinese revolution The history of the Chinese Revolution outlined above contains evidence of behaviour that is consistent with rational choice, and a rational choice lens is not uncommon in scholarship on revolutionary China. 5 Little (1991) argues that even if Asian cultures differ from Western cultures, rational choice remains a useful paradigm, and he notes that much valuable work in Asian studies adopts this paradigm. I start, then, with the broad premise that individual rational choice is relevant to the Chinese revolution. This broad premise, however, does not take one very far. In order to better understand the usefulness of rational choice as an approach to understanding the Communist success, one must look at the structure and assumptions of particular rational choice models. 5.1 Relevance of rational choice: structure and assumptions Grossman s (1991) general equilibrium model of insurrections is fairly typical of such models and provides a useful starting point. This model contains two actors, the ruler (inclusive of the ruler s clientele) and a representative peasant 5 Examples in the literature on late Qing and Republican China include Huang (1985), Little (1989, 1992), Perdue (1987), and Perry (1980). These works are by non-economists; I do not mention studies of this period by economists, as they usually adopt individual maximization as a paradigm.

18 242 Homo Oeconomicus 21(2): (2004) family. The ruler collects rents or taxes and employs soldiers to prevent insurrection. Taxes are a percentage of output. The ruler maximizes his or her income, which depends on whether or not insurrection is successful. If the revolution is not successful, then the ruler s income is equal to tax revenues minus wages paid to soldiers. If successful, then the ruler s income is zero. The peasant family allocates its time among production, soldiering, and insurrection activities so as to maximize their expected income. Expected income is determined by after-tax output from production, wages earned in soldiering if the insurrection is unsuccessful, and a share of the deposed ruler s income if the insurrection is successful. The probability of a revolution being successful is endogenous, an increasing function of the fraction of peasant time devoted to insurrection, and a decreasing function of the fraction of peasant time devoted to soldiering. Equilibrium is derived through the solution of a one-shot, non-cooperative game between the ruler and peasant. The solution gives the probability of successful insurrection and a probabilistic distribution of income. How well does the Grossman formulation capture the essential features of the Communist revolution? The Grossman formulation is clearly relevant in its emphasis on fiscal policies as key to the success or failure of the ruling group. Fiscal policiesbboth taxation and expendituresbwere important in the Chinese Revolution. Raising of revenues and military spending were critical in affecting the fortunes of both the Nationalist government and the CCP. Also, taxes were a significant source of peasant dissatisfaction. The Grossman model is also relevant in its probabilistic approach. The history of the Chinese Revolution reveals that the outcome was uncertain and that the probability of success depended on the degree of popular support for one side versus the other. Grossman s model seems appropriate in its assumption that all benefits are private. Thus, unlike some other analyses in this literature, the Grossman model does not emphasize the free rider issue. 6 While social benefits played a role in China, free riders did not constitute a critical factor in the outcome of the revolution. Perhaps this is because both sides in the conflict held up the flag of nationalism and promised the same public good, so that the free-rider problem was symmetric; perhaps it is because of the geographic nature of control by the two sides (see below), which allowed the use of suasion or strong-arm tactics against dissidents and free-riders in regions controlled by one side or the other. Some aspects of the Chinese revolution are not captured well in the Grossman model, but they fall within the scope of the rational choice framework and could 6 See Moore (1995) for a survey of the literature on the free-rider problem in rational choice models.

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